Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3

Last week’s battle was as high-scoring and entertaining as we expected. For Week 3, old NFC rivals square off. However, injuries to both teams will have an impact. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 breaks down the Giants versus 49ers grudge match.

New York pulled off an improbable comeback on Sunday in Arizona but must avoid getting down early to this talented San Francisco squad. Also, the Giants are expected to be without their top offensive weapon.

The 49ers look like one of the best teams in football. San Francisco has won 12 of their last 18 against the G-Men and enter this game as 9.5-point favorites.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
New York Giants	23	24	13	25	28
San Francisco 49ers	7	16	3	2	3

Things looked dire for the Giants last week. After getting drubbed in their opener, Brian Daboll’s team found themselves down 20-0 at halftime against the lowly Arizona Cardinals in Glendale on Sunday. Fortunately, the Giants stormed back and outscored the Cards 31-7 in the second half to improve to 1-1.

Playing that lackadaisically won’t work against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers.

San Francisco beat the Rams to improve to 2-0. The 49ers boast the league’s No. 7 offense and have also allowed the third-fewest points in the league. Shanahan’s crew can win via the pass or run and will bring it defensively.

Also, the Giants will be without their best weapon, RB Saquon Barkley. This complicates things for Daboll and company. Also, the Giants will be without Andrew Thomas and Ben Bredeson on the offensive line.

However, this game still has significant fantasy football and DFS implications that we will break down in this Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3.

New York Offense

The Giants were listless for the first six quarters of the 2023 season. Whatever adjustments Daboll came up with at halftime Sunday worked. Daniel Jones posted the overall QB1 numbers for Week 2, throwing for 321 yards, rushing for 59, and compiling three total touchdowns.

Traveling across the country on short rest to face this defense is daunting. Jones is always a threat to make plays with his legs. However, playing without Barkley will allow the 49ers to take a more aggressive approach. Jones should be viewed as a mid-tier QB2 this week and can be benched in shallow single-QB formats.

With Barkley trending towards an inactive, Matt Breida will fill in for New York. Breida enters this contest with a mere four touches so far this season. Breida hasn’t surpassed double-digit carries in any game since the 2020 season. Facing the league’s No. 3 run defense isn’t the formula to change that. Breida can catch the ball but will have a hard time posting decent fantasy numbers in this contest. View him as a desperation RB3 at best.

Gary Brightwell will also mix in. Brightwell has only played five fewer snaps than Breida and has a higher target rate. Eric Gray could also be active. Brightwell offers plus pass-catching ability but is well off the fantasy radar.

Darius Slayton leads New York’s receiving corps in snaps (103) and target share (17.2%). In a game where the Giants are projected to be trailing, Slayton can be counted on to command about six targets with limited upside and scoring potential.

Isaiah Hodgins is the other perimeter option. Jones spreads his targets fairly evenly between his top-3 wideouts. Hodgins scored last week after an invisible opener. However, his fantasy potential is rather capped facing off against Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir.

Inside WR Parris Campbell‘s 10.9 targets per snap figure leads New York’s wideouts. Campbell runs 85% of his routes from the slot and will face a tough challenge against slot corner Isaiah Oliver.

The best bet to lead the Giants in all receiving categories in this game is TE Darren Waller. Waller is tied for third among all tight ends with 13 grabs and leads the position with 112 yards. The Niners held Pat Freirmuth and Tyler Higbee to fewer than 20 yards so far. View this as a tough matchup for Waller, who should be viewed as a volume-base TE1 with limited upside.

San Francisco Offense

The Giants have allowed the most points in the league and have not recorded a sack through two games. Kyle Shanahan should be able to carve up this defense with a suitable game plan for QB Brock Purdy. The sophomore signal-caller has completed two-thirds of his passes but his stats have been rather modest as the 49ers have posted the No. 3 rushing numbers in the league.

San Francisco has scored 30 points in each of their first two contests. Game three is trending in that direction but it could be another quiet fantasy outing for Purdy if San Fran gets out to a big lead and relies on the run game to grind out the clock.

Christian McCaffrey sits atop the fantasy running-back landscape once again. The do-it-all superstar rusher leads the league in rushing with 268 yards. Meanwhile, the Giants 32nd-ranked defense surrendered 22.2 fantasy points to Tony Pollard in Week 1 and 16.6 to James Conner on Sunday. CMC is the overall No. 1 fantasy option in all formats.

Deebo Samuel has a history of destroying the Rams. However, volume is key. The matchup against the Giants is about as good as it gets. However, teams have been able to run on New York, which could lead to fewer targets. Of course, Samuel himself is an excellent rusher and capable of posting WR1/2 numbers on any given week.

Deebo Samuel’s career games vs. the Rams

WR62
WR16
WR14
WR8
WR1
WR2
WR6

— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) September 16, 2023

Teammate Brandon Aiyuk is dealing with a shoulder injury and is questionable for this game. It’s a pain management issue for Aiyuk. However, if the Niners are nursing a big lead, it could lead to fewer snaps. View Aiyuk as his usual WR2/3 self in a tasty matchup, with some risk of a reduced target load.

Jauan Jennings doesn’t see enough targets to be fantasy-relevant but could earn a couple of extra looks if Aiyuk is limited or ruled out.

Tight end George Kittle has played a whopping 97% of San Francisco’s snaps. But Kittle has only caught three balls in each game and has yet to top 30 yards. Kittle is too good of a player in too good of a matchup to consider sitting. This feels like the kind of game where Shanahan will make an effort to get Kittle involved early. This is a potential breakout spot.

Prediction & Best Bet

It’s hard to find much to like out of the Giants in this game. New York is injured. They’re traveling on short rest. Also, they face one of the top teams in football. The way the Giants have played so far in 2023 resembles what a team destined to win four or five games looks like. The Giants are 4-7-1 straight up in their last 12.

New York has also struggled in San Francisco. The Giants are 1-4 against the spread in their last five versus the Niners.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is rolling. The 49ers have won 14 of their last 15 games, including eight straight at home.

A ton of action is rolling in on the favorites. This will drive up the line.

Our BEST BET picks are off to a 2-0 start. I don’t generally like laying a bunch of points on the favorites. But I can’t find much to like about the Giants in this one.

Best Bet: 49ers -9.5

The 2023 NFL season is underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord!

All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates.