Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14

The fantasy postseason push opens with a premiere game between NFC North contenders. Coincidentally, both teams played last Thursday and come off a full allotment of rest. This should be an exciting game, loaded with fantasy-relevant players. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14 covers all fantasy-relevant for the game.

The Green Bay Packers have won three straight and sit at 9-3. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 4-1 on the road but has struggled against NFC North foes, posting a 1-2 record in divisional play. One of those defeats came one month ago against these same Lions. Evening the score is crucial for the Packers to remain in the hunt for the top overall seed.

Meanwhile, the Lions keep rolling. Detroit has won 10 consecutive games and leads the NFL in scoring. The Lions have been particularly potent at home, where Dan Campbell’s team averages over 35 points per game.

Vegas is predicting a good one. Detroit is a 3-point favorite and the total of 51.5 is the highest figure of the Week 14 slate.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Green Bay Packers	3	10	5	2	8
Detroit Lions	2	5	4	3	1

These two NFC North rivals are closely matched. They have evenly split their last 10 meetings. Both teams are top-3 in overall offense, top-5 in rushing, and are among the three most potent big-play units.

They are also fairly even on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions allow the second-fewest points per game while Green Bay is 10th. Both squads are top eight against the run, which is a fascinating dynamic with both teams running the ball exceptionally well on offense.

In fact, in their last 10 matchups, these two teams are separated by just .1 yards per rush.

Green Bay and Detroit have a combined record of 30-6. Half of those losses came to NFC North foes.

Green Bay won 29-22 at Ford Field last season and the Lions are looking for payback in a statement game.

Should be a good one.

Green Bay Offense

The Packers lost at home to Detroit last month 24-14. However, the Packers largely beat themselves with a pick-6, six drops, and 10 penalties. Jordan Love also didn’t throw a touchdown in that game. However, he’s healthier now and playing better football. Love has multiple scores in three straight games.

However, the Lions have been a tough opponent for Love, who averages just one TD and one interception in five career matchups against Detroit. But with so many quality quarterbacks unavailable due to the horrendous bye week, Love still hovers into QB1 territory.

Only the Chiefs allow fewer fantasy points to running backs than Detroit. Still, despite the lousy matchup, Josh Jacobs is a good bet to soak up plenty of volume. Additionally, he has become a bigger part of the passing game. The Lions have only allowed seven total scores to running backs all season in 12 games. Nobody is benching Jacobs in season-long leagues, but he’s not a player I would pay up for in DFS.

The matchup is significantly better for Green Bay’s pass-catchers. The Lions generally play with large leads, which causes their opponents to play in catch-up mode.

Jayden Reed enters this game as fantasy football’s WR5. No other wideout inside the top 20 has fewer targets than Reed’s 58. He’s quite TD-dependent, having failed to eclipse 30 yards in his last three games but still scoring thrice. However, Reed has performed well versus this opponent, including a 5/113/0 line in Week 9.

Romeo Doubs will not play. Dontayvion Wicks will see more snaps, along with Bo Melton and Malik Heath.

Christian Watson didn’t do much in the previous game with the Lions. However, that is par for the course for Watson, one of the most volatile wideouts in the game. Watson reeled in all four of his targets for 150 yards in Week 11 but has scored fewer than seven fantasy points in five of his last six. His receiving prop for this game is 44.5 yards, and Watson is +225 to score.

TE Tucker Kraft has posted two consecutive quality fantasy games after his Week 11 goose egg. However, Detroit allows the fewest fantasy points to tight ends, who have mustered a league-low 375 receiving yards and ONE touchdown all season versus the Lions. Tough to sit a TE1 in a depleted week, but fantasy managers would be advised to look for other options.

Detroit Offense

QB Jared Goff has been stellar at home. In his last four games at Ford Field, Goff boasts an 11-0 TD-to-INT ratio. In four career home games against Green Bay, Goff has tossed nine touchdowns.

However, the matchup isn’t great for Goff, who posted QB27 numbers in Week 9 against this opponent. Vegas has Goff with a slight lean on UNDER 1.5 TD passes, with a yardage prop of 245.5.

Green Bay comes in at league average versus the run. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in Green Bay. So looking at this as a neutral matchup means both running backs will vie for top-15 numbers.

Jahmyr Gibbs has 485 rushing yards and five touchdowns in six home tilts, with another 133 yards on 15 grabs. Entering this game, Gibbs is -165 to score with a yardage prop of 87.5. That feels optimistic.

Teammate David Montgomery (-155) is less likely to score, which seems odd. Montgomery has found the end zone in three straight home games against the Packers.

In seven career games versus Green Bay, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 6.0 grabs, 62.6 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns. The Packers have done a good job defending him.

WR Jameson Williams has performed much better at home. Last week was his low point at Ford Field, but Williams still caught 5-of-7 targets. Green Bay allows the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, so view Williams in his usual regard: a boom-or-bust WR3 with WR1 upside.

There is far more uncertainty with the rest of Detroit’s receiving corps. Tim Patrick is the WR3 but doesn’t receive a consistent target share. Patrick is little more than a desperation bye-week fill-in.

The Packers have surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Thumbs up for Sam LaPorta, who has three TD grabs in his last two home games.

Prediction & Best Bet

I came close to a clean sweep last week, but we’ll take the 2-1 day. That brings the Best Bet record to 9-6.

Betting on the Lions has been profitable. Detroit is 9-3 against the spread and is riding an NFL-best 10-game winning streak. The Lions have won nine of their last 10 in this building. Additionally, Detroit has won six of their last seven versus the Packers and covered the spread in five of six.

Conversely, Green Bay has won seven of eight overall, including four of their last five on the road. However, the Packers are 0-3 ATS in the NFC North this season.

Detroit wins, but I might tease this down to three. UPDATE: the line is now Lions -3.

Best Bet: LIONS -3

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