Pay attention.
Many of you have a routine for building your DFS lineups and however you can fit that routine into your daily livelihood whether it’s family, spouses, or waking up 30 mins before lock grabbing some coffee and rubbing the drool off your face you will no doubt come here and read this article to integrate it with your process.
Sometimes in DFS, we all have losses. We all have bad lineups.
But, if we are wise. We know that there’s …. always tomorrow.
The Dongers Club. When you’re struggling and I’ll be your guide, I’ll help you play along.
For it won’t be long, until I’m gonna need someone to hit a dong.
Some of you will take my article and try to make 100% a lineup off it. Do not do that today.
Some of you will build one lineup off my pitchers or my hitters. Do not do that today.
Some of you will read my article in addition to other advice and be sitting there tinkering and modifying and panicking over the decisions to make. Do not do that today.
Some of you wont even read this article at all today. Do not do that ever.
There are two Sunday’s each year that always just play “odd”. One is Mother’s Day and the other is today, Easter.
Today I need you to open your mind up. I need you to not pay attention to what happened yesterday or the night before.
Feel the Baseball Spirits come into you today….
Take all the information in.
Enjoy your breakfast.
And then.
When that itch in your pants hits.
And you see the light.
I want you to execute.
Do you see the light?
Do you see the light?
When it hits you. PLAY IT….
OWN IT.
TRUST IT.
The information is here.
Your own skills are growing.
LETS GO!!
SLATE DIFFERENCES
DraftKings has two more games than FanDuel as usual on Sunday’s. They have the Astros-Rangers game and the Phillies-Rockies game on their main slates.
I will not be providing any advice for the afternoon slate as always.
If you read my article then you should know this in advance.
Do not ask me about the showdown slate either. I am not focused on that or the 4pm games today. But #LiC.
WEATHER
Mother Nature, you have won. Congrats….
There are no issues today.
It’s Sunday, we do not pay for aces on Sunday’s and today is definitely no different, let’s go down the list of the arms that I like today in order of their price.
David Price (DK: $8,300, FD: $9,100)
Price has been good to start the season and returns to Tampa where he is always comfortable pitching in front of nobody. In all three of his starts this year he has had Christian Vasquez behind the dish for him but if Sandy Leon gets the start then that is even more of a boost. None of these Rays really know him from when he was in Tampa and his last 6 trips to Tropicana Field as a non Ray have all been very very good. Price to me will beat out Strasburg and Ray today.
James Paxton is a very close comp to Price today but this is a spot where there’s no doubt that Price is much lower owned and I have him with roughly the same projection as Paxton today. Price going 7 innings where Paxton will only go 6.
Trevor Richards (DK: $7,500, FD: $7,300)
South Beach Theory vs the Nationals might sound juicy but this is Richards who is coming off a really struggling outing last time against the Cubs. That said, Anthony Rendon could sit and if Ryan Zimmerman is out too then load up on Trevor Richards today.
Jon Gray (DK: $8,200)
Coors field on most Sunday’s is a fade for me. The real early local start just seems to negate big games there over the years and even though Eickhoff is a little tempting for his price on the Phils side, I would lean Gray to get more strikeouts and still come in a pretty low ownership. Last night Nola was chalk in Coors and didn’t pan out, but I would bet Gray definitely will today. 6+ innings, 8 strikeouts, 2 ER.
SNEAKY / VALUE
Jorge Lopez (FD: $7,600, DK: $5,800)
Have you seen the Yankee lineup? OK, then. He’s a steal on DK today. I’m not a huge fan of him in general but he has looked much better so far this season and with Maldy catching and the lineup the Yankees have rolled out I trust him to not blow up today at all and be an EXTREMELY good value arm on DK as an SP2. Royals have the bats to win today against Paxton.
OTHER WAY THEORY
Dylan Bundy (DK: $7,000, FD: $6,500)
How long have you been playing MLB DFS? The Twins were my #1 team on Friday and then they got PPD. The Twins were my number one team yesterday afternoon with CJ Cron and Max Kepler being two of my favorite players in the early afternoon game which was the only playable one in DFS. They were both scratched from playing. Cron came out and then homered in the second game, as did Cruz and the entire Twins lineup went off in both games. So naturally my number one team today is, well, the Twins. The reasoning was simple and accurate. The Twins in Camden Yards is like any other team going into Coors Field.
So what could go wrong? Dylan Bundy in a day game of course. Bundy has some pretty good day game splits and the Orioles reeling are in a spot where they could use a shutdown performance and Bundy is the only path to the Twins not going off today. Go here if you want to play the “weird” side of things today.
Minnesota Twins … The most annoying and frustrating thing in DFS has to be when you are 100% right on something well in advance of it happening but cannot capitalize on it. The Twins in Baltimore was a no brainer spot this weekend. In fact, for me when I saw the schedule I wanted Twins and Braves on Friday night. Both games got rained out. The result the next day? All the home runs from these teams in spots we couldn’t touch them in (more so the Twins on the second game of a doubleheader). This is a team who profiles fantastic in a park against a pitching staff that has no clue how to pitch in the park yet because they have a complete set of new coaches and pitchers who are simply going through the motion and really not used to pitching here.
I predicted before the season the Twins are a sneaky team to lead the league in home runs. They have the pop and this is like being in Coors Field for them against a shitty pitching staff.
We have a Twins lineup! Thank you fellas for getting this out early…. I highlighted my favorite Twins below … (sarcasm!!!!!!!!!)
Polanco SS Astudillo C Cruz DH Rosario OF Cron 1B Cave OF Schoop 2B Adrianza 3B Buxton OF
CJ Cron is a must as he comes in averaging 1 HR per 10 PA in Camden Yards and Jorge Polanco won’t go hitless like he did in the early game yesterday… Basically, play lots of Twins lineups so that you can really do the true definition of stacking them, or just play the variance game. They’re all poised to hit Bundy who will likely come out and throw a no-hitter now just because (see above).
- CORE: Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop
- DK Catcher: Willians Astudillo
- SNEAKY: Byron Buxton, Jake Cave
Chicago Cubs … This is not a playoff team. The Cubs are not what they were a couple seasons ago. Well, actually they are still frauds technically. But the point is that the lineup isn’t loaded like some other teams. That said, Robbie Ray in a day game with the wind blowing out spells Cubs doing Sunday afternoon Cubs things. The wind isn’t gonna be extreme today but its enough and Ray’s increased ERA on the road plus not having a catcher he trusts will push Ray out early and get us into a D’Backs bullpen that isn’t as bad as the Orioles but it’s pretty close. Look for the Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras foursome to carry the Cubbies today.
- CORE: Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras
- VALUE: Almora
NY Mets … Hudson is walking waaaay too many batters. The young kid looked good in the Spring and was looking like a solid option for the Cardinals in DFS but the walks are leading to a high pitch count and struggles which makes him a good target for the Mets in nice warm temps out in St. Louis today.
- CORE: Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto
- SNEAKY: Amed Rosario
SNEAKY
O-R-I-O-L-E-S … How does one respond to getting absolutely pummeled? I don’t know, ask Matt Ryan. But seriously, the Orioles should tee off on Kyle Gibson and they won’t be rostered by anyone today. It’s a tradition as old as the Dongers Club. The O-R-I-O-L-E-Sundays at home. Trey Mancini is the new lead dog here with Jonathan Villar setting the table and Rio Ruiz is one of my favorite sneaky bats about to become a trendy DFS play.
- CORE: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar
- SNEAKY: Rioooooooooooooooooooooooooo Ruiz
DRAFTKINGS
Astros – Houston has the lovely benefit of facing Shelby Miller. We know Shelby is good for walking the entire farm system when he is off, so you’ll not only want top of the order guys but 5-7 would be the ideal RBI targets today…. Personally, I think we can find enough offense in the other NINE games.
Rockies – Fade. Nolan homers. That’s it.
CATCHERS
I want to target catchers who are either facing a pitcher they are very familiar with or are in a ballpark that plays really small. It’s a simple process to go through each day but something that has never really been discussed much. Catchers seem to play well in certain parks such as Camden Yards, Chase Field, Yankee Stadium, Great American Park and Fenway Park. If you have a catcher in one of those spots then give them long consideration above everyone else. The next step is then to look at a catcher batting 5-7 who has a 2-4 set of hitters that are going to grade out really well in terms of their splits matchup for the starter.
- Jason Castro, Mitch Garver, Willians Astidillo — It doesn’t matter with these Twins C eligible guys. I like em all. Castro for sure though.
- Yasmani Grandal .. Fits the criteria of facing former pitcher
- Willllson Contreras …
- Martin Maldanado .. You are being contrarian and wild here going Maldy against chalk Paxton. I like it. In 2017 Maldonado went 5 for 8 with 2 doubles and 2 HR in a two game stretch at Yankee Stadium. He fits the stadium criteria today.
FIRST BASE
Did you know that the C in CJ Cron stands for Camden? He has more HR per PA in Camden than Goldschmidt does in Miller Park. I’ve only said that 50 times now and obviously made him into my write-up three times last year when he was in Camden as a Tampa Bay Ray and then made him the chairman yesterday. He’s without a doubt one of my top plays today — assuming he actually plays. After him the drop off into ‘chalky’ spots really drops off. The next thing to look at are the teams who are likely popular and determine if we should be chasing anyone from there but I just don’t see a Yankee, Astro or anyone in Coors doing heavy damage. So that takes us to someone contrarian.
- Camden Jards Cron
- Anthony Rizzo — Day game for the Cubs with the wind blowing out and good temps. Nice spot to take a shot on them today and the LvL spot for Rizzo will draw some off but the numbers are not a huge drop off for him.
- Jesus Aguilar — It’s Easter Sunday, I’m not explaining this one at all to you.
SECOND BASE
Jonathan Schoop in Camden Yards. Awesome. He homered twice. In the game we couldn’t play. Lovely. Guess what. We missed it. It pains me to admit something so glaringly obvious as one of my favorite DFS Players being in a prime double-dong spot and now we cant touch it. Wouldn’t be shocked if Schoop and Cruz took the boys out on the town again last night and he or both are out of the lineup today. Orrrrrrrr they’ll bat him sixth. We shall see. Wilmer Flores on the other hand is not one of my favorite DFS Plays. But he is in a good spot as are the rest of the D’Backs against Tyler Chatwood and with the wind blowing out ole “I only hit homers in the afternoon” Flores can be considered as a real cheap play today. Then there is my boy. Whit, facing off against Paxton chalk. Whit on a Sunday vs a Lefty? Niiiiiiiice.
- Whit Merrifield
- Wilmer Flores
- Jonathan Schoop … Guess what. We missed it.
THIRD BASE
How bad do you have to be to play two games in one day and not hit a home run when the entire team hit about 50? That’s Marwin Gonzalez who has been just god awful this season but seemingly is in the lineup every day for the Twins. He had been showing signs of starting to hit but then I started touting him again and … well, nothing. The Orioles side in this game needs to be considered, Kyle Gibson is dog shit in my mind and will NOT do well in a small park like Camden Yards. Enter Rio Ruiz who is quickly going to become a DFS popular play my friends. As it gets warmer in Camden Yards and the opposing team has a RHP on the mound Ruiz will quickly become the chalk 3B option and we’re gonna be on him today. Ruiz was once among the top prospects while in Atlanta but got buried on their depth chart and didn’t pan out there. He will hit in Camden over time. But the top play here? Has to be Kris Bryant paired with his step-brother Anthony Rizzo. Bryant comes into today with a history of 0-9 and 4 strikeouts against Robbie Ray. But suddenly the damn will break and Bryzzo will be going off this afternoon and that ole BvP touting is gonna die without proper context.
- Kris Bryant … Bryzzo day. Ace and Gary. Lock and Load. Take your 0-9 BvP and shove it.
- Marwin Gonzalez
- Evan Longoria … #SundayClub, but not a great ballpark. That said, Archer’s a target in day games and Belt-Longo make a nice mini Giants combo. Not that you ever want to play any Giants, but if you are feeling frisky today then go there.
- Rio Ruiz … Ruiz made his first appearance in the DongersClub article back in 2017 when he was a top Braves prospect. Now, it’s time to welcome him back. Do it…
SHORTSTOP
Jorge Polanco is hitting .414 on the road this season and .387 at home. He’s hitting .364 vs LHP and .408 vs RHP. He’s hitting everything. I have gone heavy on him twice this year and in those games he has gone 0-10……………………….. TILT. He homers today for sure, but in a Cubs stack it’s really hard to not go Baez in addition to Bryant and Rizzo. The Diamondbacks bullpen is pretty bad and with Ray getting bounced early (my projection) the Cubs stack would go off afterwards.
- Jorge Polanco
- Javy Baez … Pricey, so it’s a Cubs stack play.
- Paul DeJong … Thor isn’t getting off that easy.
- Corey Seager … He sucks
OUTFIELD – Sunday Club
- Eddie Rosario … In 47 career weekend day games Eddie Rosario is batting .837 with 64 home runs and 1 strikeout…. None of those numbers are even close to true, but I have enough clout now to sit here and say after the past two years of playing him every weekend day game and watching everyone cheer when he homers to say, he’s a weekend day guy. If any one of you ***** tries to complain that he makes an out on Sunday I’ll throw you out.
- Trey Mancini … The torch has been passed….
- Adam Jones … Poor Jonesy had to be back in his hotel room last night watching the Os-Twins game and seeing Schoop and Cruz go crazy on Camden Yards. Now he will come out and do his part against Chatwalks.
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
If you need me to say Christian Yelich, then fine. Christian Yelich. But here’s the guys that are in spots better than normal for them.
- Nick Castellanos
- Max Kepler … Was “Ill” on Saturday. Right. Team had Friday off. Right….. Kepler should be sober today. This is a team of “heavy” guys and Kepler certainly isn’t among those who are “heavy”. Actually, I think I have the Jorge Polanco reasoning figured out now. Anyways. He’ll be sober and ready to go today.
- David Peralta … Chatwood stinks
- Brandon Nimmo …
- Joc Pederson … It’s his birthday. 100% that he has an arrangement to have a threesome if he hits 2 homers today…. I’ll let you google your own GIF
- Byron Buxton … Did you know he leads the league in doubles? Well, now you do…. Can you guess how many doubles he had last year??
OUTFIELD – Value
- Steven Duggar … Every once and a while there’s a guy I recommend as being considerable to roster that nobody ever plays and then he suddenly drops off. Probably because he spells his first name like a tool.
- Melky Cabrera
- Ryan Braun … Should not be $2,800 against a #3 pitcher.
- Albert Almora … ………. I mean. He probably ends up 3-4 today with two doubles. But I won’t yell at you for not wanting to play him.
- Rio Ruiz – 3B – Orioles – The Chairman Of The Dongers Club
- Adam Jones – OF – Diamondbacks
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Twins
- Trey Mancini – OF – Orioles
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Tigers
- Martin Maldonado – C – Royals
- CJ Cron – 1B – Twins
- Wilmer Flores – 2B – Diamondbacks
- Paul DeJong – SS – Cardinals
- BONUS ………………………………. Kris Bryant – 3B – Cubs
