That Christian Yelich guy is doing pretty well for himself isn’t he? I mean, the guy hits 3 homers and then he gets to go home to Kate Beckinsale… Not bad… Oh wait, that’s Pete Davison. My bad. Anyways. Last night was uh. Well. Bauer was the best of the studs (which isnt saying much) and Nolan did homer of the Luchessi flop. Buuuuuut if you didn’t roll with the chalk you didn’t cash. It happens. It stinks. But it happens if you didn’t go there. Just would have liked Bellinger (the Yelich pivot) to have not gotten hurt.
<… insert a deleted rant about other people in the industry that nobody really wants to hear …>
Here are some highlights for tonight:
- FanDuel Locks at 6:30 with two extra games (Comical)
- Chris Davis is human again and thus is priced as a human at $2,100
- Christian Yelich is not human
- For those of you who are Anti-Coors (the stadium) for DFS then get your fix in now, because the Phillies are there this weekend and it will be mid 70’s.
- Nolan is still Angry.
WEATHER
- Roof should be closed in Milwaukee again.
- All games play
Stephen Strasburg … I know lots of folks will get annoyed at the idea of using Strasburg, but he’s gonna pitch much better tonight. Evening game so no concerns with him sweating and giving up meaningless home runs against a bad team. He doesn’t have the K upside that Glasnow has, no doubt there. But he’s equal in terms of getting the win tonight and should pitch deeper which offsets one or two less strikeouts per 9 metrics that folks will throw out today. Stras going 7 IP while Glasnow goes 5 IP. Huge difference for the same price.
Jon Gray … Ah yes… The ole “I invented this guy” spot. Well, lets hold up a beer for Jon Gray in PETCO Day. Ironic that it happens on a day when FanDuel oddly has a FULL slate because the Jon Gray in PETCO thing started on a Sunday when we had a full slate in DFS and the Rockies went into PETCO as the last game of the night (not the national TV game btw, we had two Sunday night games) and Gray, Nolan and Car-Go went off. Gray has had some fantastic stat lines in PETCO ever since then (the game was June of 2016). Specifically his DK scoring results in PETCO are as follows … 28, 28, 36, -1, 27, 30 and 10. So yeah, he could falter, but this narrative will be pumped a lot today. Oh, and he also has a nice 16K game at home vs the Padres in that mix. But that’s all noise tonight. The reality is this is a new Padres lineup than what he saw in all those years so I don’t think we should mix and match him being in PETCO as some automatic lock play tonight but on the slate overall he ranks near the top for me.
FANDUEL
Chris Sale (FD Only) … Nobody, and I mean … nobody. Will play Chris Sale tonight. Why would you? The guy has had major velocity issues and is facing the Yankees in New York. It’s a one pitcher site and you want to hitch onto Chris ‘bleeping’ Sale? Trust me. He is throwing a gem tonight now that Sandy Leon is back.
Matt Boyd (FD Only) … One of the early two games is the Pirates and Tigers in Detroit. A classic series that I wrote about in my pre-season betting guide when I picked the Tigers OVER and the Pirates UNDER win totals. So who the hell do you think I am backing today?? Lucky for me it’s the perfect match-up for the Tigers as the Pirates have ranked at the bottom of the league vs LHP the last year and a half and going into a park like Comerica won’t help boost their power numbers at all.
SNEAKY / VALUE
Nick Pivetta … Last night we saw a battle of aces with Thor and Nola result in a 13 run game. Tonight two guys who can get blown up as middle starters and we’re gonna get a 2-1 game. That’s just how Baseball works sometimes. I am not one who thinks that Nick Pivetta was going to turn into some magical front line starter at any point, but I also don’t think he is a back of the rotation guy who is quickly going to disappear like a fart in the wind faster than Dylan Covey did. Pivetta is a slow starter in games, he takes time to get wound up and loose but today the weather is very calm and seasonal in Philly and so I’m banking on him getting off to a better start and pitching deeper tonight.
With Pivetta you need to understand exactly what you are getting. He’s gonna give up a HR to a righty bat. If you aren’t playing Pivetta then Peter Alonso should be at the top of your list. Pivetta has given up 1 HR per 4 innings pitched at home to right handed bats and someone with Alonso’s power should have no problem tonight, but after that I really like Pivetta against the rest of the Mets lineup to give us 5+ innings with good strikeout upside a night after Nola had to exit too early.
FADE
Tyler Glasnow … I always worry about his walk rates coming back to bad form even though he has been good through three games this year. He’s still a guy that could peak at 5 innings and at the same price tier as Strasburg, I’ll take the veteran instead.
There remain a bunch of one off bats I like tonight and so I highly encourage you to pick up on those in the Positional Breakdown tonight. But I wanted to go ahead and highlight teams if you are doing multiple lineups that I would target to get exposure too. One issue tonight though is that my three favorite teams are all at home — which means they’re likely to only get 8 innings of AB’s if they’re doing well….
Atlanta Braves … Robbie Ray blow up game in 3…..2…..1…… Atlanta mashes LHP and the park is giving plenty of HR to the right side as well. Donaldson is in a groove right now, Acuna and Ozzie are always in play and I love that Ozzie is even leading off against RHP now too — so he’s locking back into that lead off spot. But as always w/ the Braves against a LHP we have to consider Johan Camargo and I’ll be 100% on Tyler Flowers tonight as you can see by the cover photo.
- CORE: Ronald Acuna, Johan Camargo
- SNEAKY: Tyler Flowers
- OTHER GOOD PLAYS: Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson and yes Freddie Freeman is good at baseball
LA Dodgers … Mahle cannot get lefties out and is a far worse pitcher than Castillo who managed to get Bellinger to luck into an injury last night which helped limit him as he was on the ropes early. Joc came through with the walk off and the Dodgers should be poised tonight to win again. Muncy remains a 2019 fraud, but if you want to go there against a fellow struggling arm I wouldn’t hate it today. Joc-Seager the main plays pending news on Bellinger
- CORE: Corey Seager, Joc Pedreson
- SNEAKY: Max Muncy
- ALWAYS IN PLAY: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
Tampa Rays … Dylan Bundy came up against Tampa and has always struggled vs them. This is a good lineup that is playing with a ton of confidence. The Ballpark is reason enough to not go fully heavy here expecting a massive outburst, but if this game was in Camden Yards it would be a 14 run type affair the way they are playing right now. Tampa drops a touchdown today on Baltimore but beware of picking on Baltimore for SB’s oddly enough.
- CORE: Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi
- SNEAKY: Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia
SNEAKY ROAD WARRIORS
Cleveland Indians … This is one of my favorite games tonight. The ballpark will play well for the Tribe and Mike Leake can be Mike Sneakey at times but this is a runnnnnnn awaaaaaaay, run aaaaaawaaaaaaaaay spot if someone tries to sell you on him. Bubba Ramirez woke up on Saturday, had two shots that should have been HR on Sunday and jacked one out last night. He’s finally feeling good and has some protection in the lineup with Carlos Gonzalez — who is also someone I like tonight hitting right in front of the steady and always in SafeCo(*T-Mobile*) Carlos Santana. If some magical way we can get Jason Kipnis going then the Tribe will finally be relevant for 2019 MLB DFS. Plus the M’s pen is cracking…
- CORE: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
- SNEAKY: Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis
Arizona Diamondbacks … I am cautious on them because a: their lineup isn’t as good as they have been and b: Fried can be lights out if he is on. But this game really stands out as one that could trump the other high chalk offensive spots tonight. Arizona does have plenty of guys who can hit LHP + the Braves pen is shaky at best.
- CORE: Adam Jones, Christian Walker
- SNEAKY: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar
CATCHERS … If you have to ask who I am playing on DK then quit. And if Flowers sits then well… I’ll bite the Zunino bullet.
- Tyler Flowers
- Mike Zunino
FIRST BASE …
- Edwin Encarnacion: The parrot flies tonight, one of my favorite ONE off plays on the slate.
- Paul Goldschmidt: Yeah, no shit, he does well in Miller Park. Been saying that for years. He also rakes in LA, but you dont hear anyone touting that.
- Ji-Man Choi: Back to this guy again. Dude. Hit a homer already.
- Peter Alonso: Trouble spot for Pivetta.
SECOND BASE … Not much I love here again
- Ozzie Albies
- Jason Kipnis
- Danny Santana
THIRD BASE … I want to consider no other player than these three tonight. Thank you, have a nice day.
- Nolan Arenado: Read yesterdays article. Then ask why you didnt play him
- Jose Ramirez: Streak is here.
- Matt Carpenter
SHORTSTOP … This is not a typo, I am literally on the exact same plays as yesterday.
- Corey Seager: Love the Dodgers top 3 lefties
- Andrelton Simmons: Mentally block out the stupid things he did in Wrigley on Saturday.
- Tim Anderson: Kills KC Pitching and is having a great year even vs RHP.
OUTFIELD … Very good position tonight, with lots likely chasing both Yelich and Trout we can definitely find alternatives elsewhere and still get by.
- Charlie Blackmon: My Favorite sneaky OF play today is Chuck Nasty. Talked about this how he is about to explode. If you have a seasonal owner who is selling on him then go buy him. Charlie’s gonna hit 3 HR this week.
- Ronald Acuna Jr.: I wouldn’t play him solo as I would bank on them getting to the D’backs pen but obviously in a fantastic spot vs Robbie Ray.
- Jay Bruce: Part of the middle of the order stack for Seattle. If you go heavy with him and Edwin look at Haniger as well who is heating up.
- Joc Pederson: Dodgers lefties are solid plays again.
- Ryan Braun: Perfect profile against Flaherty and what do you know he is 4 for 7 with 2 HR against him. Braun and Goldy/Carp the one offs in the Miller Park game tonight. Just have to monitor his health.
OUTFIELD (Value) …
- Lewis Brinson: Quintana is terrible and the Marlins do okay vs LHP.
- Avisail Garcia
- Josh Reddick
- Johan Camargo
Big slate, go balanced. Back to the 2 CORE bats and then move on to the second and third teams and repeat along the way. This is true on both sites
- Edwin Encarnacion – 1B – Seattle – Chairman of the Dongers Club – (Double Dong)
- Tyler Flowers – C – Atlanta
- Avisail Garcia – OF – Tampa Bay
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Colorado …………… Birthday Bombs!
- Charlie Blackmon – OF – Colorado
- Corey Seager – SS – LA Dodgers
- Jason Kipnis – 2B – Cleveland
- Ryan Braun – OF – Milwaukee … monitor health
- BONUS ………….. Ji-Man Choi – 1B – Tampa Bay
BETS
- Rockies ML
- Rays/Orioles OVER
- Pirates/Tigers UNDER
