Sunday night is always the time to look ahead into the next week to understand who is playing where, what slates we will have and in general how the MLB schedule will play out for the week. Obviously for someone like me who is doing some content it matters more to me but I can just say next weekend looks juiiiiicy. But for now, we kick things off tonight with a 9 game slate. For the most part this week will be night slates only with Thursday being the only odd day with a bunch of get away day games.
WEATHER
- No PPD risk tonight due to weather
- Cold in Milwaukee so the roof should be closed
- Dry in Seattle so the roof should be open
Update … The roof has been (and currently is) OPEN all day in Milwaukee to let the Sun get on the field. It’s supposedly pretty cold inside the stadium and even though they’re going to close it for the game and turn the heat on, it’s still expected to be chilly there. More reason I am not heavy on this game outside of a one off here or there.
Lots of good choices tonight for pitching and lots of guys who can rack up the strikeouts given their match-ups today. Spend up on pitching.
Trevor Bauer (DK: $10,400) … Nobody is gonna touch Bauer on FD tonight at $11,200 and I honestly don’t blame you for joining in that fade there because of how some of the other pitchers are priced and given only needing one SP there’s no need to go the Bauer risk tonight. But on DraftKings he is only $10,400 and I like that he is two games removed from flirting with the no hitter and got beat up a little last game. Bauer historically has done well vs the Mariners and specifically in Seattle has held them under 2 runs in three straight match-ups. Seattle seems to have cooled off a bit and Bauer is my favorite DK #1 arm today.
Noah Syndergaard (FD: $9,900) … I was leaning Nola but it really seems like everyone else is defaulting onto the Nola train for no real good reason. Thor has better strike out upside and in my mind he has a lock down closer behind him tonight as well to secure the win. It dawned on me while debating the two — why would I pick against the future NL East Division Champions tonight with the second place team??? Gimme More, Gimme More, Gimme Thor…
Trevor Richards (DK: $8,200, FD: $7,700) … It’s a tight call for me tonight to pair Bauer with Richards or game stack him with Kikuchi on DraftKings. The benefit of Richards obviously is having pitchers in different games to get two wins but I do worry about Richards winning tonight as his team won’t give him a ton of run support (dont ask about Darvish, Yu gotta be nuts for me to consider him). Chicago’s lineup is overhyped by name and winning the World Series a couple years ago. Richards has been great at home and get’s plenty of strikeouts to justify his price tag today.
Note: All three can be used on BOTH sites, but the price dictates where Bauer and Thor should be used.
SNEAKY VALUE
Heath Fillmyer (DK: $5,000) … Is gonna pitch better than folks expect tonight. I am not high on the Chi-Sox/Royals game for offense and Fillmyer and Ervin Santana both to me are worthy of using tonight to not kill you, but I also don’t think either hits 20 points and it really feels you need that from your SP2 today, so this is a play just to lock in the stud at every position and hope for the best. Fillmyer will NOT be on my primary lineup. This is a spot where I will want to get a little Goldy and Trout tonight in parks they mash in, so I’ll pay up for them and look for a 2.5x return from Fillmyer tonight paired with a stud outing from Bauer.
FADES & Why of course …
- Kikuchi: I prefer Richards in the same price tier. Plus given that I am going Bauer will keep me off someone that I just cant stand even if he is in a dream spot for him. Cleveland wins.
- Luchessi: I’m playing Nolan 100% and Luchessi has a history of having starts where he gets pulled early on a pitch count limit. Colorado is pissed off, to the point where even Mark Reynolds is angry and he and Ian Desmond are sneaky plays to avoid Luchessi from having a monster night tonight.
LA Dodgers … The Dodgers have to me the best match-up tonight of any team, I just wish it was 10 degrees warmer in LA today. Castillo runs into problems with left handed hitters and has always been worse away from home. LA is the best team in the league at mashing right handed pitching and especially rakes at home. This is a prime spot for the Dodger lefties to come in around 5% owned tonight and even if they get up early I don’t see Seager and Bellinger coming out of the game if the Reds go to a lefty out of the pen.
- CORE: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager
- THIRD LEG: Joc Pederson
- SNEAKY: Max Muncy (Nice 2B option on DK)
I honestly don’t like anyone else as much as the Dodgers, so I am not gonna force it. I’ll have 3 LAD bats tonight in my main lineup.
This is the part of the article where most content writer’s or “touts” would sit and start to rattle off 2 to 3 more teams and why they are gonna smash the world with their bats tonight and how they’ll have some “exposure” or how they are “considering” them so that later on they can come back and say that they “mentioned” them and that they were “on” them but they “tinkered” their lineup and should have had them on “all” of their “line” ups…
Yes, I am doing the “air quotes” like Dr. Evil from Austin powers every time I use “” around something to emphasize that word….
I am not going to do that here. I am not going to simply “cover the bases” because someone told me I have to write up a certain number of teams — not that anyone did. Nor am I going to list additional teams because I am undecided on which one I like the most. I like the Dodgers the most. They are the team I am the most confident in today. My goal when I begin my Tuesday write-up is to do it knowing that I had 100% success rate on my picks for today and if I gave you 4 or 5 teams then you would be getting teams that I honestly do not have confidence in going heavy on tonight. So there, that’s my list and if you don’t like it or you want to do more lineups with other random teams then too bad. My team is on the floor and I will be building by plucking one offs tonight because that is what my analysis tells me is the proper play today.
CATCHERS … Value spot again tonight but I am very much focused on these three…. And it is Monday, soooooooooo.
- Wilson Ramos: Water Buffaloooooo
- Danny Jansen: My favorite value punt.
- Yaider Molina: Cards value guys tonight.
FIRST BASE …
- Paul Goldschmidt: Back in Miller Park already. Should be fun.
- Hunter Dozier: Everything he hits is traveling far right now
- Carlos Santana
SECOND BASE … Stop me if you have heard this before. Second base blows today.
- Max Muncy
- Neil Walker: Good value against Darvish in my mind today. Castro the flip on FD.
- Cesar Hernandez
THIRD BASE … If you are doing multiple lineups tonight this is the spot to get different. It’s very loaded. That said, I will have 100% Nolan Arenado tonight.
Nolan Arenado: The sneakiest of them all today. Nolan’s frustration boiled up on Saturday when he got into it with the UMP and then came out Sunday and jacked a 3 run shot off Holland. It’s fairly well known by now that Nolan Arenado is my favorite active player. I firmly believe not only is he the best all around third baseman in the game today but that when it is all said and done he will be viewed as one of the best of all time at third. Nolan is the leader of this team and he is frustrated that they are not hitting. He took matters into his own hands yesterday and desperately tried to keep the no hitter alive as well. Tonight he is going into San Diego (home for him) where he has always fared well. Good spot for him at really low ownership to have a nice big game as we get classic Nolan being Nolan and carrying the Rockies to a bounce back series win.
#AngryGOATS
- Matt Carpenter: A top play on the slate is Carpenter, who has raked in Miller Park and gets a shot to continue that tonight.
- Travis Shaw: Did well vs Dakota the first time they met as expected, can be used at 1B today on DK. Which would be the logical pay.
SHORTSTOP … Equally good and as deep as third base.
- Corey Seager: Love the Dodgers top 3 lefties
- Andrelton Simmons: Mentally block out the stupid things he did in Wrigley on Saturday.
- Tim Anderson: Kills KC Pitching and is having a great year even vs RHP.
OUTFIELD … This on the other hand is not an amazing position outside of the LA guys.
- Cody Bellinger
- Joc Pederson
- Shin-Soo Choo: The Walrus!
- Mike Trout: Is he alive? Yes. Is he playing in Texas? yes. Ok then.
OUTFIELD (Value) …
- Dexter Fowler
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Kole Calhoun
- Brian Goodwin
- Yasiel Puig
You gotta pick a game or two and fade tonight and really trust the value spots that are available. I am spending up on pitching on both sites outside of a Fillmyer lineup on DK as an SP2 and Trevor Richards on FanDuel is the cheapest I am going there.
Lots of one offs tonight…. So I will be banking on SP’s to carry the work load + one CORE 3 man stack for offense tonight.
- Cody Bellinger – OF – Dodgers – The Chairman Of The Dongers Club
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Rockies
- Corey Seager – SS – Dodgers
- Neil Walker – 2B – Marlins
- Eric Thames – 1B – Milwaukee
- Wilson ‘Water’ Buffalo Ramos – C – Mets
- The Walrus, Shin-Shoo Choo – OF – Rangers
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- BONUS …………… Matt Carpenter – 3B – Cardinals
BETS
- White Sox / Royals UNDER 9.5
- Dodgers / Reds OVER 7.5
- Rockies ML
- Indians ML
- Marlins ML
