The early slate today has eight games but one was PPD due to snow…. Yes, snow…. A little smaller than my liking considering I think folks are gonna gravitate onto a few of my favorite plays today. But many of you enjoyed the smaller medium sized slates earlier this year so lets finish this week strong and continue to nail the top plays but this time without recommending the -9 pitcher.
WEATHER
- Calling for SNOW in Wrigley field between the Angels and Cubs today. I shouldn’t have to say more, but if you would like to jump in a premium chat about the weather before lock to confirm this then please do such while at brunch.
Jake Junis (DK: $7,300, FD: $8,400) … Yo. Cleveland is terrible and legit the worst offense in this division right now. Junis on a Sunday home game is a go to spot for me and he should have similar strikeout success that Keller and Homer Bailey have had the last two nights. I said all weekend KC sweeps the Tribe and Junis will finish them off today. He’s facing the guy he projects to become today in Kluber, but unfortunately for Kluber, even he is no longer that guy anymore.
Max Scherzer (DK: $10,700, FD: $11,500) … Huh? What are you DOING DraftKings? Do you guys just not even pay attention on the pricing? My lord. There’s an old saying used by GOOD coaches in sports and that is when it’s a high scoring game it’s on your offense to come through to win the game and outscore the other team. When it’s a low scoring defensive struggle then it’s on the defense to be the ones that win the game. Basically, if the offense is struggling, the D has to pick them up and vice versa. I say this because on this slate there’s a lack of really good hitting choices on paper and I’m honestly the guy who won’t pay up for pitching ever on Sunday’s, but Max should be $12k or close to it on DraftKings today. He has a couple spots in the Pirates lineup that can maybe cause problems and avoid a 10+ strikeout game but lets be real, it’s gonna be hard for Max to not get 25 points on DK today and at 10.7 I can live with that “boring” outing from Max.
Jose Berrios (DK Only: $9,900) … This is a pivot off Max only as Berrios is one arm who when he is on can have pretty good upside and potentially match an average Max Scherzer today. For $800 less you can pivot down to Berrios who gets to face a really watered down Tigers lineup today as 5 through 9 features John Hicks, Dustin Peterson (the accountant who plays golf at the local club every Saturday morning and takes 50 practice swings before each fucking shot), Grayson Greiner, Gordon Bleeping Beckham and JaCoby Jones. Berrios could go off today against that lineup.
SNEAKY SOUTH BEACH THEORY
Jose Urena (DK: $5,700, FD: $5,800) … Happy South Beach Theory Opening Day 2019.
The Philadelphia Phillies look like they went out on Friday night and got STEAMROLLED by the Marlins on Saturday. This is not shocking at all. There’s no team in the National League who really fits the Visitor South Beach theory more than the Phillies and the Diamondbacks. But the Phillies more so have a ton of money and a personal guide in JT Realmuto as well. So we are not shocked at all that they had a horrible performance yesterday after their first night in M-I-A-M-I. Wooo Wooo….. MI-AM-I…. Wooo Wooo…
But…. There is one issue here. We have a contradiction here because this is also Jose Urena at home against the … Phillies. When Jose Urena faces the Phillies at home you stack the Phillies. So we have a big decision to make here:
Which means ……………
Yep. I am going to recommend that if you roll the #SouthBeachTheory today you compliment it with an equal $ hedge lineup because Jose Urena always has cruel intentions and always gives up a 2 run double to the Phillies First Baseman and Rhys does seem like the type of guy who can’t go out two nights in a row …
Side note…. Sarah Michelle Gellar > Reese Witherspoon. Dont @ me….
Okay… So the Phillies lineup is out … It scares the piss out of me. It came out at 10 am. Some how some way Cesar Hernandez and Scott Kingery are going to ruin South Beach Theory day, I can just feel it. That and Rhys Hoskins no doubt stayed in his room all night last night.
PHILS HEDGE STACK: McCutchen, Harper, Hoskins, Kingery
As you can tell by the cover photo. I am not declaring this a full go South Beach Theory day
Minnesota Twins … This is definitely a game that I will be targeting for offense the most. It might feel like a heat wave after yesterday’s wind chill game but we still saw the Twins able to put up some damage when Ross was missing the plate and Jordan Zimmermann isn’t likely to do much better here today. Zimm struggles with the Twins and they’re one team with a solid lineup that is healthy and now has their DH (Cruz) back in the fold to keep them dangerous. Jorge Polanco had some great swings yesterday and would be the guy to start it off from the 2 hole.
- CORE Plays: Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
- SNEAKY: Marwin Gonzalez – Mitch Garver (DK)
Boston Red Sox … I would love to sit here and say go ahead and fade the Red Sox today but there’s just a lack of quality hitting spots to make that feasible today. They’re drawing Baltimore on what should be a long bullpen day. Temps aren’t amazing but if you are looking for a solid one off you can do worse than the big sticks of JD Martinez, Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts today. But remember the rule with Boston if you wanna go heavy. You must get bottom of the lineup exposure, they dont go off without 7-9 feasting. That said, Dustin Pedroia returns to the top of the lineup and on FanDuel my favorite 2B on Sundays has been moved to the Outfield (WHIT) so that makes Pedroia an almost automatic play there for me.
- CORE Plays: Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts
- SNEAKY:
Jackie Bradley Jr
UPDATE: JBJ was scratched so Benintendi is BACK in the lineup today and leading off and Pedroia is bumped back down in the order. This changes nothing for Pedroia today, but it actually brings Nintendo into play because he will definitely see 2+ AB vs a RHP out of the pen.
SNEAKY
Washington Nationals … Reluctantly crouched at the starting line. Engines pumping and thumping in time. The Green light flashes the flags go up. Churning and burning they year for the cup. It’s a Michael A. Taylor-Adam Eaton 9-1 sneaky wrap around stack day fellas. Combine that with the power shots from Rendon and Soto with the wind blowing out against Taillon who is a target whenever he is away from PNC. On DraftKings don’t play the Nats without my Yan Gomer-pile call today.
- CORE Plays: Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto
- SNEAKY: Michael A. Taylor, Yan Gomes
Tampa Bay Rays … Back on the Rays bandwagon today after a day off yesterday afternoon. This is a terrible umpire for a guy like Stroman today and I think Tampa will get plenty of men on base against him. The power would come against the Toronto bullpen and I wish Tommy Pham was back in the lineup today but we’ll settle for a little Yandy Diaz 2 hole.
- CORE Plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz
- SNEAKY: Kevin Kiermaier, Willy Adames
CATCHERS
- Yan Gomes: Love me some Gomer-Pile today.
- Cam Gallagher
- Jesus Sucre
FIRST BASE … This isn’t my favorite position today on FanDuel. If you are the “stacking” type then roll the 1B from your stack here today, but otherwise on FD you can definitely consider Gomer-pile in C/1B in my mind.
- Trey Mancini: Usually someone I like more vs RHP but in Fenway vs a lefty isn’t a bad spot to roll the Manchise.
- Ryan O’Hearn: Klubot remains broken
- Rhys Hoskins
- Miguel Cabrera
SECOND BASE … This position really depends on your site preference today. Pedroia leading off in Fenway at 2300 on FD is someone I would just go ahead and plug in and move on.
- Dustin Pedroia: I’ll eat this value chalk on FanDuel today.
- Brandon Lowe: Good option for the Rays batting 5th who should see runners on base ahead of him vs Stroman but needs to get that bullpen to get some fly ball pitchers to jack another tank out.
- Whit Merrifield: F OFF FanDuel, he’s a second baseman. Dont move him around just because Billy Hamilton is out
THIRD BASE
- Yoan Moncada: Really improved this year and does better power wise from the left side. He jacks one off Tanaka today.
- Anthony Rendon: He’s reached the ‘Mike Trout’ level in terms of yes he is in play every day.
- Brian Anderson
- Yandy Diaz: Roll him in a Tampa stack with Meadows.
SHORTSTOP … I love all three today, it’s hard to justify Adames batting so low in the order with Polanco and Xander being at the top of the list for me today. Jorge Polanco is easily one of my favorite bats today.
- Jorge Polanco
- Xander Bogaerts
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD
- Eddie Rosario
- Mookie Betts
- Austin Meadows
- Nelson Cruz
OUTFIELD (Value) … Loaded today.
- Adam Eaton: Swinging bat well
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Joey Rickard
- Austin Dean
- Joey Rickard
- Michael A. Taylor IS BACCCCCCCCCCCCCCCK
Usually on Sunday’s I get away with saying you dont play Aces on Sundays. 100% true and something I stick by. But with so few games the options are limited and one of the top plays today could be the value on the Marlins and with Max still being slightly underpriced for what he can do and pitching in “night like” conditions in DC today the Max+Marlins value stack on FanDuel today + Pedroia’s value at 2nd and other Boston bats is going to be UBER easy to build. Doesn’t mean we have to go there, just one thing to consider today.
Stick to the target teams and 2 CORE players from the target teams to build your lineups. Trust the process.
BOMBS Away…
- Jorge Polanco – SS – Twins
- Yoan Moncada – 3B – White Sox
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Twins
- Miggy – 1B – Tigers
- Yan Gomes – C – Nationals
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Tampa Rays
- Austin Dean – OF – Marlins
- BONUS ……………… Will announce in slack.
BETS
- Royals ML
- Nationals -1.5
- Jays / Rays OVER 8.5
- Marlins ML
