The highlight of this Saturday for me has to be that there were TWO 7 game slates and none of this 4-3-2-5 type crap…. OK, that isn’t the highlight of my Saturday but it’s the best intro line I could come up with. Not that anyone is reading this part anyways (today’s magic word is Wilson). As in Tom Wilson who is gonna score a goal today.
5:03 PM Updates Below (OF)
Notable Game Tonight
There is a game in Mexico. If you don’t say Mexico the proper way then refresh, go eat some Mexican, have a Margarita or Shot of Tequila and come back and re-read this. The Cardinals and Reds will be playing a couple games down in Monterrey which is about 1700 feet above sea level and is a relatively boring ballpark. It’s not huge, it’s not configured to help one side more than the other. But it is 90+ degrees down there and we do have Adam Wainwright and …. Tanner Roark pitching. Obviously this game draws a pretty high over/under from Vegas, so it likely draws some heavy chalk. Games that are in foreign countries are always a little quirky, but the kicker here is that winds are supposedly 15+ mph out to dead center as well.
And again… It’s Adam Wainwright and Tanner Roark….
On with the Analysis.
WEATHER
All games play in my mind but only one to monitor
- Oakland at Texas of all games has rain and is cooler than it should be (mid 50’s).
Other notables
- Roof Open in Chase Field, Good hitting weather. Really good hitting weather.
- Roof probably Open in Seattle
- Warm and wind ideal for hitting in L.A. and a game time of 9pm EST (6pm local)
Sean Newcomb (DK: $8,700, FD: $7,700) … The Mets provide a strikeout boost versus LHP which helps to combat the power scare that this lineup brings right now. Peter Alonso, Wilson Ramos and even Amed Rosario can do some damage but Newcomb has continually improved from last year to this year and is a viable home pitcher despite some struggles there early in his career.
Do not play anyone else on FanDuel
Homer Bailey (DK: $5,800, FD: $6,600) … So let me explain…… Literally every other pitcher is in a worse spot today and is a hard No for me. I am going Newcomb over JV up top so this is entirely about determining what the second arm to use on what is going to be a pretty good offensive night is. Let’s cover Homer Bailey’s spot first. He faces the worst offense on this slate (Cleveland) right now and has fared well against their only relevant hitter right now Carlos Santana. Martin Maldonado is doing a fantastic job behind the plate for the Royals pitchers and Homer Bailey being a veteran arm I trust that he can go deep enough to give us a good enough value for $5,800…. Now for why everyone else sucks….
- Jefry Rodriguez: First start, 3 innings maybe… If that. Royals sweeping Cleveland this weekend too.
- Wainwright: Not in those hitting conditions.
- Roark: ………………………….. new here?
- Vargas: Atlanta too good vs LHP
- Estrada: Rain
- Sampson: Rain and… Oakland
- Strahm: See below
- Kelly: LOL. How’d Thornton work out last night?
- Verlander: Wont get through 6 for his price, gimme Nuke
- King Felix: Vs Houston? Are you nuts?
- Zach Davies: Oh hell naw…. well… OKay Zach Davies for some stupid reason is tempting. Good hitting conditions vs the Dodgers at home though? No.
- Turd Ferguson
So after I pretty much crapped on every pitcher above you would think we have a ton of hitting choices tonight and yes we do, but with a situation like that it’s best to narrow it down to 4 and build off those 4 teams getting the right 2 man combinations from each team to spread the love around. I don’t hate the idea of going heavy on one team (4 guys) tonight and then balancing out the other 4 spots from best available at each position. The rankings in the positional breakdown are key today. Use this section for CORE builds tonight.
SAN DIEGO … I told you on Thursday I would be riding this team all the way through tonight as to not miss an explosion and I really think tonight is that explosion. Merrill Kelly — if that’s her real name — has popped onto the scene for Arizona and done fairly well in two starts. Sounds a lot like ole Trent Thornton last night for the Blue Jays against a team with some pop. How’d that work out? The Myers express assuming he gets the start tonight should get rolling along here and with the roof open and 10+ degrees warmer than last night the ball should be popping all over the ballpark. This is an 11-7 type game in my mind and the Padres as the road team get my attention first.
Remember this afternoon when I went with the Boston bottom of the order? Going mid-bottom order for Padres tonight.
UPDATE: Myers out — just could sense it in the gut he would sit. Fran-fucking-mil Reyes is batting 2nd bitches!
- CORE:
Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis, Franmil Reyes (2 hole) - POWER UPSIDE: Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe
ARIZONA … I am not a Strahm guy, not one bit. Going from a reliever to being stretched out as a starter doesn’t translate into DFS domination overnight. While his spreadsheet numbers will continue to pop we have to take the full context and understand going through the batting order a second time + pitching in a really tough environment for the first time is a recipe for trouble. Arizona will leap out tonight in the first inning on him in my mind.
- CORE: Adam Jones, David Peralta
- EXTRAS FOR A FOUR MAN STACK: Wilmer Flores, Eduardo Escobar
- SNEAKY: Nick Ahmed, Carson Kelly (consider these two as a pivot off Flores/Escobar when going 4 man)
ST LOUIS … How much Paul DeJong – Marcell Ozuna is too much today? Roark throws too much bullshit nibble the corners action for me to pay for Goldy or even Carpenter today, but DeJong and Ozuna wont care and they’ll be up there hacking and driving in the RBI multiple times today.
- CORE: Paul Dejong, Marcell Ozuna
- SNEAKY: Dexter Fowler
SNEAKY LEVERAGE
Milwaukee Brewers (& Seattle) … Turd Ferguson is starting and will be CHALK on DraftKings tonight due to his price and folks wanting to take Justin Verlander up top. I would caution that I don’t think everyone else will go quiet while Milwaukee and Seattle go off but the Brewers against Ferguson and a bat or two from Seattle against Verlander is fantastic leverage tonight. The match-up itself for Milwaukee is one that really is tempting to me. Yelich doesn’t care if its RHP or LHP he faces, he hits them both and the power in LA is for Lefties and along with Lorenzo Cain those two would be the guys to murder ole Turd balls tonight. Otherwise this cheap bullpen arm is gonna beat us and … well, we aint got time for that.
- Brewers: Lo Cain & Yelich
- Mariners: The whole team has HR potential vs JV. Specifically I like Vogey and Bruce the most.
FADES
I have to take a stand tonight and avoid some teams with so many in good spots. My fades tonight will be Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland/Texas
CATCHERS … Not the worst catcher night, but still a spot to pay down as much as you can if undecided…
- Carson Kelly: $3200 for a catcher in Chase Field. Love the Kelly play today.
- Austin Hedges
- Yadier Molina
FIRST BASE … Seattle has three guys here that I feel can take JV deep, I listed the one (Vogey) that I would pick if going one, but that’s one nice leverage spot against JV.
- Dan Vogelbach … Vogey, Bruce and Healy
- Wilmer Flores (1B/2B) …
SECOND BASE … Two studs here tonight. I could see one flopping. I can’t see both flopping.
- Jose Altuve … On fire and Houston has crushed Felix/Seattle.
- Ozzie Albies
- Ketel Marte
THIRD BASE … I really don’t like third base that much tonight. It’s take Machado in Chase or get weird…
- Johan Camargo
- Ryon Healy … Sneaky HR pick here at weak position.
- Manny Machado … I think we can fade him for the bottom of the Pads lineup today.
SHORTSTOP … Would love to sit here and say I love one over the rest. I don’t. All 3 are solid tonight though.
- Paul DeJong
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Nick Ahmed
OUTFIELD … Reaaaally tough position to narrow down tonight. I will tell you right now that a Christian Yelich/Lorenzo Cain contrarian combination to pay up is VERY intriguing for me tonight for you folks who play in big tournaments. This is the UTIL spot on FD tonight.
Wil Myers … Yes, I am chasing him in chase.- Christian Yelich / Lorenzo Cain: All or nothing, play em both.
- Franny Mil Reyes
- Marcell Ozuna
- Ronald Acuna
- David Peralta … Always a favorite sneaky play vs LHP who wont last more than a couple innings.
OUTFIELD – Value …
- Adam Jones
- Yasiel Puig
- Johan Camargo
- AJ Pollock … 3,800 on DK is a bargain spot.
Giving you a tier ranking on teams to target tonight again….
Teams are ranked in order of game start time….
3 Star Teams: San Diego, Arizona, Houston
2 Star Teams: St. Louis, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Dodgers
1 Star Teams: Kansas City, Seattle, Cincinnati
0 Star Teams: Cleveland, Oakland, Texas, NY Mets
BOMBS Away…
- Christian Yelich – OF – Milwaukee – Chairman
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Atlanta
- George Springer – OF – Houston
- Franmil Reyes – OF – San Diago
- Carson Kelly – C – Arizona
- Dan Vogelbach – 1B – Seattle
- Ryon Healy – 3B – Seattle
- Paul DeJong – SS – St. Louis
- BONUS …………… David Peralta – OF – Arizona
BETS
- Brewers / Dodgers OVER 9
- Diamondbacks / Padres OVER 9
- Athletics / Rangers UNDER 10.5
- Braves ML
