DraftKings seven games early — which kinda shocked me, while FanDuel went with the more traditional shorter early slate of only four games this afternoon. Everything here will be focused on DraftKings.
WEATHER
The Tigers and Twins game in Minnesota is VERY cold (upper 30’s with a breeze).
Wind blowing out in Wrigley field as well but doesn’t appear as bad as the game on Friday.
Games in Washington and of all places Boston have the best hitting conditions.
Blake Snell ($10,700) … Snell with his dominant arsenal including a really good slider when he wants to use it against Toronto should be heavy chalk today and really hard to not play. He’s gone double digit K’s the last two times vs Toronto and there’s no logical reason to fade him today at this price against the Jays. I get that if you want to walk up to the table and put it all down on #37 to win then okay, cool, you wanna gamble. There is nothing either sharp or smart about doing that today. The ONLY reason to fade Snell is because you wanna go two mid tier arms but honestly I don’t think you are saving that much by going that route this afternoon.
Stop … Collaborate and LISTEN … Go build your bats and then come back to SP2 …
okay, now that we went through and locked in our favorite bats, just plug in whatever is left at SP2… I’m kidding (sort of). It’s that kind of slate for me.
Kyle Freeland ($8,200) … This is my second favorite arm tonight. These teams played till 1 in the morning local time and will be back out there < 12 hours later for an afternoon game in San Francisco. The ball does carry better in the day in San Fran but Freeland will negate that a ton and should mow through the Giants lineup. For $1k less than MadBum he can match that and I feel the Rockies win today.
Tyson Ross ($6,700) … Process of elimination on someone who is going to gain ownership due to game log chasers. My reason for Ross is down to the fact that the hitting conditions in Minny aren’t fantastic and I don’t want to not get the 30 game from Blake Snell, so Ross at $6700 will do and he has more K upside and is more likely to pitch through 5 than Chris Stratton who is $6300 and facing a worse lineup in the Cubs but in better hitting conditions. Thats why I am on Ross.
I honestly do not think any one starting pitcher gets blown-up today, so a big key for me in the analysis and break down is to target bad bullpens.
BALTIMORE … Rick Porcello is arguably someone that could be considered a #1 target today and Baltimore continues to show enough pop to do some damage and being in Fenway with good hitting conditions they can produce again today. Trey Mancini came into the bigs against Boston and has always tormented them and draws a match-up that screams his name today. The top of the order is the only spot to sniff for Baltimore today and I won’t be one of those BvP donkies trying to convince you that weak boy Chris Davis will murder Porcello today. Yes, 1B is pretty weak if you move Manchise to OF but there are a ton of other options still better than Chris Davis, including your next door neighbors pet cat who hasn’t moved all morning.
- CORE: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar
- ONE OFF: Renato Nunez
- PUNT: Pedro Severino (Catcher sucks)
BOSTON RED SOX … The rain should taper off and leave us with a cloud game in the mid 60’s (thats warm for Boston) with lots of humidity and a breeze out to center field. Saturday afternoons in Fenway are glorious and Boston as chalk against Andrew Cashner is the side we will want to hitch onto today. Remember what I said in slack last week though on Boston. They don’t and won’t go off without the bottom of the lineup producing. Raffy Devers at $4200 batting 7th and yes, ole Peddy Dustin Pedroia batting 8th will have to do work for a Boston stack to do well today. Get 2 of the top 5 studs and one of these bottom guys to win all the money today
- CORE Plays: Andrew Benitendi, Mookie Betts, Raffy Devers
- Going All In: Mitch Moreland, JD Martinez
- Sneaky Play: Dustin Pedroia
PITTSBURGH PIRATES … Ball should travel well in DC today and the Nats combination of Anibal and a bad bullpen gives a Pirates hitter major boost today. They can’t hit LHP but they can do damage vs RHP and Starling Marte should get something going today. He along with Adam Frazier are my core plays here and then there’s good spots to pick and choose filling in with one offs or positional punts on this team today. Nats pen is atrocious and has given up like 50000 runs in the 8th inning this year, or somewhere in that ballpark. Ball carries well here today.
- CORE: Starling Marte, Adam Frazier
- POSITIONAL PUNT: Francisco Cervelli
- SNEAKY: Melky Cabrera
CATCHERS … Not alot here as one would expect on a Saturday afternoon 7 game slate.
- Francisco Cervelli
- Punt anyone
FIRST BASE … This is a good one off position today. From my favorite target teams above your choices are Mitch Moreland (who definitely is fine and has started the season well), Josh Bell or someone like Ryan Zimmerman/Matt Adams from the Nats side. None of those guys are what I would consider CORE plays today.
- Trey Mancini (1B/OF)
- Greg Bird: Nova is one of those pitchers who we know exactly what we are getting. Someone who gives up lots of fly balls and gives up lots to lefties. You don’t need some amazing looking spreadsheet with pretty colors to figure this out today.
- Miguel Cabrera
SECOND BASE … We will need some value today in our lineups. This is that spot. Frazier & Marte or Villar & Mancini. Either way you should have both Marte and Mancini exposure today.
- Adam Fraizer
- Jonathan Villar: Porcello is a fraud
- Tommy La Stella
THIRD BASE … I am going Boston today and thus will lock in on Raffy Devers, but if you click build new lineup after that you should immediately go to Rendon, Anthony and move on from there.
- Rafael Devers
- Anthony Rendon
SHORTSTOP … Shouldn’t be any one major chalk player here. I doubt we see folks pay up for Baez today but he’s obviously the best all around option. I wont touch him today.
- Andrelton Simmons: You will see his name again below… SIMMMBBBAAA
- Tim Anderson: Off to a hot start and always a good play vs LHP
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD … Tier 1- Boston OF, Tier 2- Tampa OF … Logically everyone will gravitate there and while I won’t talk you off any one player from those teams my favorite guys from each are listed below.
- Starling Marte: I like the RvR match-up and expect Kurt Suzuki to be catching today which really boosts his SB upside as well.
- Andrew Benintendi: Hot streak
- Trey Mancini: Came up vs Boston and has been a major thorn in their side ever since. Does well vs RHP and to me is a solid HR play today.
- Kevin Kiermaier: Nobody will use him at the bottom of the order today. It’s him or Pham that I would want to pluck from Tampa today. I expect Meadows to walk a ton so that’s why I am not forcing him in on a day when higher $ OF is pretty good.
OUTFIELD – Value …
- Mike Tacuhman: Value lefty vs Nova
- Dwight Smith Jr
- Melky Cabrera
- Christin Stewart: Really good value in the 4 hole behind Miggy
Like I wrote above, I don’t see any one team completely going off today, but here’s a general break down on the confidence of how deep I would go with teams. It’s kind of like a 3 star to 0 star system where 3 stars means definitely look to get 3 guys from this team, 2 stars is a team in the middle, 1 is a complete one off and 0 means I have no desire to use any bats here.
Teams are ranked in order of game start time….
3 Star Teams: Boston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh
2 Star Teams: Tampa, New York, Washington
1 Star Teams: Detroit, White Sox
0 Star Teams: Minnesota, Cubs, Anaheim, San Francisco, Colorado, Jays
So while I don’t think a SP gets completely blown up today, I do see some good HR upside out there.
- Trey Mancini – OF – Baltimore – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Andrelton Simmons – SS – Anaheim
- Greg Bird – 1B – NY Yankees
- Starling Marte – OF – Pittsburgh
- Francisco Cervelli – C – Pittsburgh
- Jonathan Villar – 2B – Baltimore
- Andrew Benitendi – OF – Boston
- Rafael Devers – SS – Boston
BETS
- Rockies ML
- Pirates ML
- Pirates / Nationals OVER
