Finally, after a long offseason opening is finally here. Now, first off be careful today. We have a long 6 months. Don’t blow your bankroll this early in the season. On FanDuel it’s a 14 game main slate, DK it’s 9. There’s going to be massive variance today, so caution yourself and play smart.
The Staff
Berrios – I have loved this spot for Berrios since first looking at this slate back in February, but now he may be pretty popular. Cleveland has watered down their lineup with guys taking their talents to other teams, PLUS they just lost their best hitter and will possibly be without their power guy Jose Ramirez today. Berrios was much better at home with a 27.8% k rate and held hitters to just a .199 average. Let’s also note it’s going to be in the 40’s today in Minnesota. The reason I mentioned that is because it should help to neutralize his 42.3% fly ball rate to lefties, which are his biggest threats. In 13 innings at home against Cleveland last year, he held this team to a .170 average, while striking out 12 and allowed just 1 home run.
(Risk factor 4)
Ryu – The pivot off what may be the chalk at Pitcher. Notoriously a reverse splits pitcher (he’s tougher on righties) Arizona’s projected lineup really has no one who scares me. Yea they have Wilmer Flores, but with how good Ryu is at home (1.15 era) and how tough he is on righties, I think this is a great spot for Ryu. At home he had close to a 29% k rate and just a 5% HR/FB rate. Over the past 2 seasons against Arizona at home, Ryu has allowed just 7 hits while striking out 12 in 13 innings.
(Risk factor 4)
Urena – This is one you take with a grain of salt. If we want to really stack expensive hitters, we need a cheap play that won’t really hurt us. Aside from the top 4 in this Colorado lineup, it’s really not that good. At home Urena touches just under 21% k rate, and big a HUGE ballpark + factor. Urena is primarily a ground ball pitcher mixing in a heavy sinking fastball, change up, and newly found breaking ball. Over his final 7 starts last season Urena went 6-0 with a 1.80 era.
(Risk factor 6)
Lauer – This is more so picking on a terrible lineup. The Giants lineup is bad, really bad. Only one guy touched 20 home runs and no one came close to hitting .300 except for Posey who saw around 400 AB. Lauer tends to be a bit of reverse splits at times, striking out just 13.4% of lefties and 21.7% of righties. In 11 innings at home against San Fran, Lauer did strike out 11, while giving up just 1 home run and a 36% hard contact.
(Risk factor 5)
The Bats
Yankees – They will be the chalk, but for good reason facing Andrew Cashner.
(Gardner, Torres, Judge, Stanton)
Cubs righties + Rizzo – Another chalk play with Chicago facing Mike Minor in Arlington. Minor gave up 19 home runs to righties in 2018, 11 of those at home.
(Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Baez)
Oakland – Over the past 2 seasons, he’s been an extreme home/road splits guy. At home in 2017 and 2018 he owned a 1+ era, but on the road it was well over 6 and 7. He’s back in Oakland where he pitched last year, but now as a visitor. Oakland has one of the better power lineups in the league, and just added Kendrys Morales yesterday (not sure if he plays).
(Laureano, Davis, Chapman, Morales/Profar)
Philly – Not much analysis needed here. Harper will be high owned based on his opening day numbers on top of his numbers vs Teheran. I’m not all that high on Philly here, but they’re in a good spot.
(Rhys, Harper, Franco, Herrera)
San Diego – Oh how sneaky of stack this could be. Bumgarner is nothing close to the pitcher he once was, especially with his 4.97 road era last year. Good luck maneuvering around these righties. Bum gave up 14 home runs last year…..all to righties. That’s a 12% HR/FB rate on top of the 43.5% hard contact to the split as well.
(Kinsler, Myers, Manny, Franmil (if he’s in), Renfroe)
Favorite sneaky Dynamic Duo – Buxton/Kepler
Favorite popular Dynamic Duo – Carpenter/Goldy
Few other stacks I like – Toronto, Pitt lefties, Reds.
