After constructing some lineups, I’m finding myself falling into the Angels tonight. Most notably Bour/Trout/Simmons. I’m moving them ahead of St. Louis, especially with how bad Estrada is against Righties.
The Staff
Richards – I absolutely love what this kid has in his arsenal. Richards already has arguably the best change up in the league, but he also added a nasty breaking ball in the offseason that he threw with a purpose in the spring. Righties do tend to hit him with a little bit more hard contact, so there is some risk with both Story and Arenado. He did boast a 24% k rate at home in 2018, so the strikeout potential is there. Being a fly ball pitcher, Marlins Park should help keep those to just loud outs. He started one game against this Rockies team in Coors last year, and limited them to just 3 hits in 6 innings while striking out 8.
(Risk factor 5)
Marquez – Burst onto the scene in the 2nd half of the year, racking up a ridiculous 35% k rate to righties and 28% overall on the road. Marquez was obviously better away from Coors giving up just a .201 average to hitters and a 2.95 era. From June on, Marquez held hitters to a .229 average while striking them out at a 31% clip. Miami’s lineup is pretty weak from the left side which is Marquez’ weakness, so this looks like a smash spot for him.
(Risk factor 4)
Lucchesi – A little bit better at home with a 3.99 era and 26.4% strikeout rate. Looch dominated lefties allowing just a 0.39% home run rate and a 29% strikeout rate. San Fran will probably throw 4 lefties out today, which bumps Looch even more. He’s also an extreme groundball pitcher against the same split with a 60.9% rate and a 25% hard contact.
(Risk factor 4)
Flaherty – He has the ability to strike out double digit batters in any start. 26.8% k rate to lefties and 32.5% k rate to righties in 2018. He did give up 11 home runs in 83.1 innings on the road last year with 9 of those coming from the right side. Milwaukee is loaded with power, so there is some risk here but massive upside. On the road he limited hitters to a .196 average and a 30.2% k rate. I don’t think he’ll go deep in this game, pitch counts tends to creep up on him because he will walk a few.
(Risk factor 6)
High risk/High reward arm – Ray
The Bats
Boston – Boston away from home, early in the season AND facing a lefty?!!? Yes please
(Betts, Devers, JD, Nunez)
Oakland – Power Power Power. Harvey was a little bit better in the 2nd half last year, but still gave up 27 home runs last year. Harvey struggles with his fastball giving up a .280 average and 15 home runs in 2018.
(Davis, Chapman, Profar, Morales (if he plays)
San Diego – Facing another lefty after a big let down yesterday. Holland gave up 19 homers to righties last year, along with a .255 average. Along with that were his. ridiculous 45.4% hard contact and 1.34 HR/9.
(Myers, Machado, Franmil)
Houston – Facing their former pitcher who throws a lot of fastballs, Springer Dinger again. His k rate was better to lefties at 36.3% and down to 22.4% to righties.
(Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Brantley)
Seattle – They’re mashing pitching already this season, averaging 8.6 runs in their first 3 games. Eovaldi was hammered last year on the road, giving up a 5.14 era, 1.43 HR/9, and only a 19% k rate. He also gave up 2 homers and 3 earned runs in 5 innings last year to this team (while with Seattle).
(1-6 hitters)
Low Owned Stack – St. Louis
