Week 5 NFL Player Props
Week 5 NFL Player Props Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately,
Week 5 NFL Player Props
Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately, since we tripled up on the Justin Fields over, our 3-4 Week 4 record doesn’t tell the full story; We actually profited cash for a third consecutive week. Just about a quarter of the way through the regular season, we are now 13-8 (+6.9 units).
After a surprising first few weeks to the season where studs weren’t performing and there were some unfamiliar names leading certain position groups, things are finally beginning to shake out as one would expect. Justin Herbert has been the top quarterback, Christian McCaffrey has been the top running back, Justin Jefferson has been the top wideout, and T.J. Hockenson has been the top tight end (Travis Kelce missed the season opener but is averaging more points per game than Hock). The cream always rises to the top.
Fantasy football owners definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props and continue our trend of profitable NFL weekends.
Josh Allen OVER 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After a disappointing season-opening performance against the New York Jets in which Allen turned the ball over four times in an upset loss, Buffalo’s signal-caller has turned it around and has been the QB1 over the last three weeks. Over that span, Allen has racked up 812 passing yards (270.7 per game) while going 72-for-94 (76.6% completion percentage) and throwing eight touchdowns and one interception.
He has risen to the top of the MVP race in large part due to his dominant performance in the Bills’ Week 4 thrashing of the Miami Dolphins in which he tallied 320 passing yards and four touchdowns, while also running one into the end zone. Allen has eclipsed this line in two of his previous three outings and faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense.
Also, the Bills are averaging 6.1 yards per play this season, which bodes well for Allen in this London-based contest. Allen doesn’t have a particularly good history against the Jaguars. But one of his previous two games came against them back in 2018 when they had an elite defense. Back in 2021, he surpassed this line against Jacksonville. Look for Allen to continue his MVP campaign…
WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…
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2023 Arizona Cardinals Outlook
2023 Arizona Cardinals Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview
2023 Arizona Cardinals Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Arizona Cardinals Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Kyler Murray
After an excellent season in 2020 (4,790 combined yards with 37 touchdowns), Murray missed three matchups midseason with an ankle issue that lingered for the remainder of the year. Also, he had regression rushing the ball (88/423/5 – 133/819/11 in 2020). However, his completion rate (69.2) and yards per pass attempt (7.9) were career highs. Murray started the year with two impact games (37.45 and 39.10 fantasy points in four-point passing), followed by four steady showings (22.70, 25.30, 28.05, and 25.05 fantasy points) over the next five weeks. Over his final six starts, he passed for 1,511 yards and three touchdowns with a rebound in explosiveness in the run game (39/276/2).
Last season, Murray had a dull feel over his first seven starts, leading to one impact game (305 combined yards with two touchdowns) and two steady showing in fantasy points (22.55 and 25.95) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. After an uptick in production in Week 8 (362/3). However, he missed seven of their next nine games with a hamstring issue and a torn ACL in his left knee. His best value as a runner came over his final five full starts (38/382/1). Murray didn’t have a completion of 40 yards or more while gaining a career-low 6.1 yards per pass attempt.
Fantasy Outlook: His left knee surgery came on January 4th, putting him behind schedule for the start of the season. In addition, Murray will be less active as a runner in his first few games when he returns to game action. In the high-stakes market, Murray is the 20th quarterback drafted. However, Arizona didn’t improve their receiving corps in the offseason, making it difficult to trust their star quarterback in the fantasy market. In the first run of the projections, I’ll have Murray out for four weeks with a step back in value in the run game. His summer news will dictate his ultimate fantasy value in 2023.
Clayton Tune
Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. Also, he was active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
Fantasy Outlook: Tune improved each year in college. As a matter of fact, his style of play has more overlap than Colt McCoy with Kyler Murray, but I doubt Arizona will roll out a rookie quarterback in September.
Other Options: Colt McCoy, David Blough, Jeff Driskel
— Running Backs —
The Cardinals’ running backs posted lower stats across the board in 2022, with the exception of targets (112). They gained 1,926 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 84 catches, leading to 20.86 FPPG in PPR formats. However,their backs had a regression of 56 touches.
James Conner
From 2018 to 2020, with a starting job in Pittsburgh, Conner missed 12 games, leading to a challenging player to manage in the fantasy market. He played well in 2018 (1,370 yards with 13 touchdowns and 55 catches over 13 games. As a matter of fact, his success placed him sixth in running back scoring (282.00 fantasy points) in PPR leagues.
In 2021, in a split role for the Cardinals, Conner gained only 3.7 yards per rush, with three of his 202 carries gaining 20 yards or more. He made the best of his opportunity by scoring 15 rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, Conner looked more explosive (10.1 yards per catch) with an exceptional catch rate (94.9).
However, most of his success catching the ball came over four matchups (5/77/1, 5/37, 9/94, and 6/41/1) over the second half of the year. Conner gained over 60 yards in only five contests in the running game. His best value rushing the ball came from Week 9 to Week 13 (72/272/4).
Last season, he finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18 with a shin injury. But, from Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
Fantasy Outlook: Conner ranks 24th running back in high-stakes drafts. Over the past two seasons, he averaged 16.7 touches with Arizona. At the minimum, Arizona should give him the ball 15 times a game in 2023, with 25% of his chances coming in receptions. On the downside, Conner typically misses about three games a year.
Keaontay Ingram
Over four seasons in college, Ingram worked in a split role. He finished with a high catch rate (87.3), leading to 89 catches for 671 yards and six touchdowns. Ingram offered change-of-pace value in the run game (495/2,722/16), with the best output coming in 2019 (144/853/7 with 29 catches for 242 yards and three scores.
In his rookie season, the Cardinals gave Ingram 31 touches, leading to 81 yards with one touchdown and four catches. His top output came in Week 7 (9/14/1 and two catches for 23 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: The running back depth behind James Conner is uninspiring, pointing to Ingram having a clear path to
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE CARDINALS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
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Fantasy Football World Championship Draft Review August 1, 2021
Fulltime’s newest Senior Analyst, Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL on Twitter) breaks down a World Championship Draft with a fantasy football draft review completed August 1st, 2021. Reviewing the first FFWC Draft of 2021 Now that the calendar reads August, football fans can rejoice that training camps are in progress and the fantasy football draft season has, at long last, begun. Among the fantasy football drafts that have kicked off, the prestigious Fantasy Football World Championship draft season is in full swing and the inaugural 2021 draft is in the books. Well-known as the preeminent format in the industry, FFWC leagues boast over $12K in prizes, with the overall winner taking home a massive $150K grand prize and title of Fantasy Football World Champion. FFWC drafts use PPR scoring and involve 12 fantasy fans battling it out in a 20-round live draft. Lineups include a single quarterback, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX spots, a team defense, and one team kicker. With the first FFWC draft now completed, here are some of the takeaways as 12 eager fantasy fans get ready to battle it out over the next five months. Draft Bargains Aaron Jones (2.02, RB10) – Now that we know Aaron Rodgers will return for at least one more season in Green Bay, all the Packers’ skill position players are on the rise. Jones is coming off of consecutive top-5 seasons and now stands to gain a larger role in the passing game after Jamaal Williams signed with Detroit. Any time Jones slides into Round 2, he’s a solid value. Saquon Barkley (2.04, RB11) – Even though there are concerns about Barkley’s surgically-repaired knee, he is still generally considered a first-round talent and top-5 fantasy running backs. As the 11th running back selected in this FFWC draft, Barkley looks like a tremendous bargain. A.J. Brown (3.02, WR10) – Among the favorites to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, Brown broke out with a 70/1,073/11 campaign in 2020 and could be even better in 2021 with new teammate Julio Jones commanding a lot more attention from opposing defensive backs. Brown has top-5 upside and looks like a steal being selected after Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin. Miles Sanders (5.05, RB24) – Sanders had some issue with drops during his rookie campaign, but he still managed to snag 50 passes, rank 9th with 1.67 yards created per attempt, and lead the NFL in runs of 70-plus yards. Sanders also has a clear path to RB1 duties on a team that should be significantly better. That makes the third-year back look like an excellent value pick a full two rounds later than he would normally be targeted. Kareem Hunt (6.05, RB26) – In 24 games with Cleveland, Hunt has averaged 13.3 PPR points per game, caught 75 passes, and scored 14 touchdowns despite being used as his team’s RB2. Hunt offers standalone RB2 value on a weekly basis but offers top-10 upside if Nick Chubb were to miss time. James Conner (11.05, RB45) – Chase Edmonds, who was drafted a full five rounds earlier, had all of two games with double-digit carries last season and averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in those contests. This staff seems to know that Edmonds is small and better utilized in a change-of-pace role. Conner has battled injuries but been sneaky good. According to Fantasy Index, Conner has put up 1,739 scrimmage yards and scored 13 touchdowns in the past 16 games in which he received two-thirds of Pittsburgh’s snaps. At 233 pounds, Conner also looks like the clear favorite for goal-line duties in Kingsbury’s offense, which has averaged 20 rushing TDs per season in the NFL. Questionable Selections Travis Etienne (3.10, RB18) – It isn’t unusual for first-round running backs to be a hot commodity in fantasy football drafts. But as talented as Etienne was at Clemson, he has an undefined NFL role and joins a Jacksonville squad with a rookie signal-caller, first-year head coach, and who already has an established starting running back in James Robinson. It’s difficult to forecast Etienne to receive enough touches to justify top-20 billing ahead of safer bets like J.K. Dobbins and Chris Carson. — (Scott likes this exciting high ceiling pick. “It’s boom or bust baby!”) Ja’ Marr Chase (4.12, WR18) – When you’re trying to win a league like the FFWC, you have to be willing to take chances but nabbing a rookie wideout in the fourth round with plenty of dependable veteran pass-catchers like Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, and D.J. Moore still on the board is awfully risky. Robby Anderson (5.04, WR26) – The addition of QB Sam Darnold, who showed excellent chemistry with Anderson in New York, should help, but the Panthers look like a bottom-third passing offense and Anderson will be hard-pressed to get 136 targets again with RB Christian McCaffrey back in the fold. Ronald Jones (7.03, RB29) – With all 22 starters returning after a Super Bowl win, there’s little reason to think that Bruce Arians will change his backfield committee approach. The problem for Jones is that it appeared that Leonard Fournette moved into the ‘1A’ role late in the 2020 season and Arians also added receiving specialist Giovani Bernard to the fold. Jones will have a tough time carving out a consistent weekly role, making him a poor choice as a top-30 fantasy back. Zach Ertz (10.08, TE9) – Ertz, 30, has seen his production slip in three consecutive seasons and has been rumored to be a trade candidate all offseason. For now, Ertz is still in Philadelphia but that’s not necessarily good news for his fantasy outlook. Dallas Goedert appears to be ahead of Ertz in the pecking order now and the Eagles have added a ton of young wideouts. It’s hard to envision Ertz being anything more than a mediocre TE2 in this offense, but certainly not a top-10 option. Deshaun Watson (17.03, QB16) – Grabbing a potential stud quarterback in the 17th round is by no means an egregious pick, but Watson
Fantasy Football: Week 9 Stock Watch – Big Names, Big Movement!
This Week 9 Stock Watch brought to you by fantasy football expert Bill Enright outlines player value movement to keep your team’s talent maximized.
2019 Fantasy Football: Philadelphia Eagles Expanded Team Outlook
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2019 Fantasy Football: TE Position Battle – Ertz vs. Kittle
This position battle between Zach Ertz & George Kittle is a tricky decision on draft day. Senior Fantasy Football expert Adam Ronis picks his guy.
Philadelphia Eagles Camp Questions
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2019 Fantasy Football: Philadelphia Eagles Team Outlook
In this Philadelphia Eagles Team outlook, take a free peek at our comprehensive coverage from the Fantasy Football guru Shawn Childs.