Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can
The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can use that data to make profitable lineup choices in Week 2.
Tyreek Hill (11/215/2 on 15 targets) was an absolute beast, while Brandon Aiyuk (8/129/2) and Jakobi Meyers (9/81/2) had excellent games. Three wideouts (Kendrick Bourne – 6/64/2, Puka Nacua – 10/119, and Rashid Shaheed – 5/89/1) finished in the top 10 in wide receiver scoring, all of which were probably found in the free agent pool in some leagues in Week 2. Justin Jefferson (9/150) did his job, and Calvin Ridley (8/101/1) rewarded his believers with a great start to the season.
Just like in 2022 (9/122/1), Michael Pittman (8/97/1) kicked in the wide receiver door in Week 1 despite freefalling in drafts in early September due to the passing concerns for Anthony Richardson. Ten other wideouts scored between 15.00 and 19.90 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 2DFS QB Report Week 2DFS TE Report, and Week 2 DFS RB Report.
Top Tier Options
Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,000)
The threat of Sauce Gardner (he allowed four catches for 59 yards on five targets per PFF) slowing down Diggs in Week 1 ended up being a false theory. Buffalo found creative ways to get him the ball, leading to 10 catches for 102 yards and one score on 13 targets. The Bills’ secondary receiving options struggled to make big plays (19/134 – 7.1 yards per catch). Over his 50 games with the Bills, Diggs has 497 targets (9.9 per game). In his 10 home games in 2022, he gained more than 100 yards in six starts (12/148/3, 8/102/1, 12/128, 7/104/1, and 7/114).
The Raiders were about the league-average vs. wide receivers (208/2,660/13 on 314 targets in 2022), with three offenses (DEN – 13/203/2, SEA – 17/206/1, and KC – 16/221) gaining more than 200 yards from their wideouts. Their top three cornerbacks in Week 1 gave up nine catches for 101 yards on 11 targets. Both the Broncos’ passing touchdowns came against their safeties.
Diggs is the chain-mover for Buffalo, and he should be active again in Week 2. To reach 30.00 fantasy points, the Bills need to get him at least one score and find him on at least one long pass to reach the 100-yard bonus at DraftKings. His salary looks more favorable at FanDuel.
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)
Based on Joe Burrow’s struggles in Week 1 (14-for-31 with 82 passing yards) and his lack of success vs. the Ravens in 2022 (233/2, 225/1, and 214/2), the daily market should fade Chase and his star quarterback in Week 2. On the positive side, Baltimore will most likely be without their top cornerback (Marlon Humphrey), and their starting safety (Marcus Williams) has already been ruled out.
Last year, Chase was active in all three games (7/50, 9/84/1, and 9/84/1) vs. the Ravens with 37 targets, but he failed to hit on any long plays. When at his best in 2022, he gained over 100 yards in four matchups (10/129/1, 7/132/2, 8/130/2, and 10/119/1), three of which came at home.
Baltimore finished 22nd defending wide receivers (227/2,875/12 on 353 targets) last season. Their secondary had some problems vs…
WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…
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2023 Deep Sleeper Wide Receivers
2023 Deep Sleeper Wide Receiver In the high-stakes fantasy football market, most deep sleeper wideouts will be found after round 16 (pick 192) in 12-team formats. Some potential under-the-radar players started drawing attention in early August, pushing them up draft
2023 Deep Sleeper Wide Receiver
In the high-stakes fantasy football market, most deep sleeper wideouts will be found after round 16 (pick 192) in 12-team formats. Some potential under-the-radar players started drawing attention in early August, pushing them up draft boards. With any news blurb, a player can jump a tier in the category pecking order. A deep sleeper moves to a sleeper, or a sleeper becomes a breakout candidate.
Targeting these late-round 2023 Deep Sleeper Wide Receivers is a great way to build a championship fantasy football roster. Also, check out my deep sleeper tight ends. That and much, much more are part of the amazing FullTime Fantasy Draft Kit.
John Metchie (WR) Houston Texans
The Texans’ passing options won’t draw much attention in the fantasy market. But someone will emerge as a viable starting fantasy wide receiver in 2023. I put Nathaniel Dell with my sleeper wideouts while waiting to see some tape/news on Metchie. Recently, Houston posted a clip of Metchie on Twitter, showcasing his…
WHAT OTHER WIDE RECEIVERS MADE SHAWN’S 2023 DEEP SLEEPER LIST?
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR Depth
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR Depth Since drafting early wide receivers has become the most popular draft strategy in 2023, securing WR depth is integral. Knowing how to identify and target mid-round values is crucial. With my 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR Depth, I break down how to build the deepest and best receiving corps in your league. In PPR leagues, it is possible to draft four wide receivers that outscore many RB2s over the first four or five rounds of drafts. The data below shows the strength of the wide receiver pool at WR3 and WR4 over the past four seasons. Also, the 2023 FullTime Fantasy Football Draft Kit is absolutely LOADED with EXCLUSIVE sleepers, fades, breakouts, customized cheat sheets, and tons of valuable content to help you DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT DAY! Wide Receiver 25 to 36 Point totals (2019 – 2022) Targeting WR3s Last year, the 25th through 36th wide receivers averaged 181.99 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues, or 11.37 fantasy points per week, or 68 catches for 800 yards and four touchdowns. The top four wide receivers in this group averaged 187.33 fantasy points. Practice is also imperative. Use FullTime Fantasy’s Mock Draft Simulator to be fully prepared on draft day. Plus, you can win some amazing prizes simply by mock drafting! Fantasy Point Totals WR3 Observations The quality of the WR3 in 2022 was well below the previous three seasons (189.86, 194.37, and 181.99 fantasy points). Wide receivers are inconsistent from week to week. Many times touchdowns will determine their success. If a drafter builds his team with too many weak wide receivers, he will have difficulty getting his lineup right on Sunday. As I maneuver through the wide receiver pool, it is easy to see that they consistently outscore the running back position at the backend. As I mentioned earlier, if a fantasy manager could draft three top wide receivers inside of the first four rounds, his team structure may lead to a five or six-point edge at the WR3 position by hitting on the right group of wide receivers. Additionally, by having three reliable wide receivers, a fantasy team may be slightly stronger during bye weeks. Also, it will have a chance to battle some short-term injuries. On the other hand, a team selecting a quarterback and tight end over the top five rounds will be under pressure to get their 2nd running backs and backend wide receivers right on draft day. Wide Receiver 25 to 36 Point Totals (2019 – 2022) WR4 or Flex Player The 37th through 48th wide receivers averaged 160.65 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 59 catches, 724 yards, and four touchdowns. On average, the 4th tier of wide receivers (10.04) outscored the 3rd group of running backs (9.80 fantasy points in 2022). Last year, 36 wide receivers averaged more than 10 fantasy points per week compared to 38 in 2021 and 32 in 2020. My goal at the flex position has to be much higher than 10.5 fantasy points. Unfortunately, many failures at the backend of the wide receiver pool tend to come from injuries. Fantasy Point Totals WR4 Observations If I add up the average score from each starting roster position, the mid-range of a fantasy team came to 146.04 fantasy points per week based on 2022 results. Each fantasy manager’s goal should be to beat the average score at each position. That means they need a mid to upper-tier player at each spot in their starting lineup. The wide receiver position runs deeper than the running back inventory. But wideouts are more challenging to manage at the lower tiers. As a result, many drafters use two different philosophies. The first goal is to draft one foundation running back and build your team with strength in their receiving corps. Plus a solid tight end also helps. The next step is loading up on running back depth. If one or more backup running backs gain a full-time job, this draft style will contend for a title with a healthy season. The second team structure comes from a running back strong roster in team building while hopefully hitting on their backend wide receivers. I’ll use a baseball comparison as it is easier to understand for fantasy managers that play multiple sports. A backup running back is like a closer in waiting. If a player gets full-time carries, they can become a top player and sometimes an elite running back. Without a starting opportunity, a backup running back tends to have minimal value if needed to cover an injury or bye week. Wide receivers are more like starting pitchers. It’s either they have talent or they don’t. A couple of wide receivers will break through each year, but what are the chances that the draft breaks right to secure the right ones? If a drafter went running back strong, do they need to hit one or two wide receivers to have a successful season? They might even need three wide receivers to develop a competitive roster. In the high-end leagues, your opponents will also know the player pool. That makes it challenging to get out if you wait too long at the wide receiver position. The second part is that a backup wide receiver can’t match an elite wide receiver just because he has an opportunity. If Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase gets hurt, their replacement won’t deliver his production. Their targets will be spread out between the other good players within that offense. A mediocre running back can get a job in a high-powered offense and produce by the sheer volume of touches. That is why many top fantasy owners will cheat on the RB2 position. They avoid the injury risk by selecting one running back early and try to gain an edge at four or five other roster positions. Drafting a Balanced Roster The best team structure for a fantasy manager that pushes the quarterback position back would be to draft a balanced roster
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR These days, drafting early-round wide receivers has become the most popular fantasy football draft strategy. Because so many #ZeroRB zealots are pushing up the value of these wideouts, it is imperative to know the safest approach to a foolproof Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR. I have to admit I have a weakness for the wide receiver position. I like strength with my wideouts, allowing me to make fewer decisions when setting my starting lineup. Here’s a look at the top 12 wide receivers over the last four seasons. Top 12 Wide Receiver Point Totals (2019 – 2022) Identifying WR1s Last year, the average top 12 wide receivers averaged 98 catches for 1,362 yards and 8.9 touchdowns, translating to 290.93 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 18.18 points per week. The WR1 position had its best output in 2015 (19.26 FPPG), 2018 (19.06 FPPG), and 2021 (19.02 FPPG) over the past 11 seasons. Also, stacking your top wideout with his real quarterback is a proven strategy. Check out our extensive look at how to approach team stacking in 2023, which breaks down the ideal stacks for all 32 franchises. Fantasy Point Totals WR1 Observations Overall, an elite three-down running back has an edge almost every season over a top-tier wide receiver. However, there will be an exception when a top wideout catches plus receptions or scores a high volume of touchdowns. Marvin Harrison 2004 – 143/1,722/11 Randy Moss 2007 – 98/1,523/23 Wes Welker 2011 – 122/1,569/9 Calvin Johnson 2011 – 96/1,681/16 Antonio Brown 2014 – 129/1,698/13, 2015 – 136/1,834/10 Julio Jones 2015 – 136/1,871/8 DeAndre Hopkins 2018 – 115/1,572/11 Michael Thomas 2019 – 149/1,725/9 Stefon Diggs 2020 – 127/1,535/8 Davante Adams 2020 – 115/1,374/19, 2021 – 123/1,553/11, and 2022 – 100.1,516/14 Cooper Kupp 2021 – 145/1,947/16 Justin Jefferson 2022 – 128/1,809/9 Tyreek Hill – 119/1,710/7 At any position, scoring plus touchdowns will separate the top players from the field. Over the last 20 years, we have seen some exceptional running backs that posted some crazy touchdown totals, highlighted by the great success of Christian McCaffrey in 2019 (471.20 fantasy points). Cooper Kupp set the new ceiling at wide receiver in 2021 in fantasy points (440.40). In most years, a handful of receivers will score between 280-300 fantasy points each year in PPR leagues. Over the last nine seasons, 50 wide receivers scored more than 280 fantasy points in PPR leagues (13 over the past two years). One of my goals on draft day is to eliminate as many weekly lineup decisions as possible. The more decisions a fantasy manager has to make from week to week, the higher the chance of being wrong. The wide receiver position is very volatile. If a fantasy team has too many players that look the same, it is nearly impossible to maximize your success over a long football season. A fantasy manager that decides to draft a wide receiver strong team in PPR formats eliminates much of the decision-making process for two, possibly three wideout positions. This drafter MUST roster one strong running back as the core of his roster. Wide Receiver 13 to 24 Point Totals (2019 – 2022) Targeting Quality WR2s It is interesting to see the gaps tighten up at the WR2 position over the past few years. Last season, the second 12 wide receivers averaged 75 catches for 940 yards and five touchdowns. The top four wideouts in this grouping averaged 231.65 fantasy points (82/1,071/7). The difference between the top WR2 (Tyler Lockett) and the 12th option (Chris Olave) was 39.10 fantasy points. As I mentioned earlier, the easiest mistakes in fantasy football will happen at the wide receiver position. There’s nothing worse than having five wide receivers that have similar value. It is incredibly challenging to predict whom to start every week. The FFWC has two flex spots in the starting lineup, so the wide receiver decisions don’t get magnified as much as in traditional leagues. A WR2 averaged about 14.65 fantasy points per week in 2021, the highest level of success for WR2s over the last 10 seasons (2013 – 14.17, 2014 – 13.87, 2015 – 14.25, 2016 – 13.72, 2017 – 12.75, 2018 – 13.57, 2019 – 13.99, 2020 – 14.31, 2021 – 14.65, and 2022 – 13.75). The RB2s averaged 12.69 fantasy points last year. Another great way to prepare to DOMINATE your draft is using FullTime Fantasy’s Mock Draft Simulator. Fantasy Point Totals WR2 Observations The second wide receiver for most fantasy teams is a steady piece to the puzzle. When making this selection, the goal is to find a solid 200+ point receiver in PPR leagues. The closer we get to the live draft season, the inventory will tighten up. There are about 17 wide receivers in most seasons that will score more than 225 fantasy points in PPR leagues (19 in 2015, 15 in 2016, 12 in 2017, 17 in 2018, 17 in 2019, 19 in 2020, 22 in 2021, and 17 in 2022). So as much as some fantasy managers want to finesse the position, they can be short at wide receiver if other drafters decide to triple up at wideout with their first three or four draft picks. A fantasy manager needs to identify the opportunities at each position to help them determine which direction they want to go when building their team. A drafter from an early position will have a much different thought process than someone drawing from a backend draft slot. For example, a team selecting two wide receivers early in drafts will be shopping in another aisle than a player choosing two running backs with their first two picks. Every draft will be different, but the opportunities after round five will be somewhat consistent. Finally, check out our Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for the Quarterbacks and Running Backs. Lastly, If you have time to prepare, make sure you mock in our Mock Draft World Championships. No better way to practice for