NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Falcons – 3 Over/Under: 42 Last year, the Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts, leading to 2,718 yards and 17 scores on the ground. The addition of Bijan Robinson bodes well for repeated success running the ball, but Atlanta needs Desmond Ridder to prove he can move the chains with his arm. Carolina opens up the season with a rookie quarterback (Bryce Young), who had plenty of success in his time in Alabama. The Panthers don’t have a true WR1, with multiple options vying for targets each week. In 2022, they ran the ball 483 times (12th), leading to a fast-moving clock. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Atlanta Falcons Desmond Ridder Over his first four NFL starts, he went 2-2 while averaging 177 passes. He has two career passing touchdowns (none on the ground). I expect him to be active in the run game. He must snipe a rushing score to support his lower-tier salary. The Falcons only have one competitive receiving option (Drake London) in Week 1, as I expect the Falcons to limit the snaps of Kyle Pitts early in the season. A Ridder/London requires about 42.00 points at DraftKings and 38.00 at FanDuel to be in play. I need to see Ridder have success passing the ball before riding in the daily games. Bijan Robinson He has the fourth-highest running back salary at DraftKings and sixth at FanDuel. For the running backs on the main slate in Week 1, Robinson has the highest rating in FP/1000 (2.55) at FanDuel while ranking well at DraftKings (2.68). I view him as a strong play in Week 1. He offers three-down ability with a high probability of scoring vs. the Panthers. With a pair of touchdowns, Robinson has a good chance of being on the winning ticket in his first NFL start. Must start in all formats in the season-long games. Tyler Allgeier Last year, he played well over the final four games (79/431/2 with six catches for 52 yards). The Falcons will rotate him on about 35% of their plays, but Allgeier needs a blowout game to be a viable option at his current price point. Drake London In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, London is the 24th wideout off the table. He played well in his rookie season (72/866/4 on 117 targets), highlighted by his final five starts (6/95, 7/70, 7/96, 5/47, and 6/120). The last four outcomes came with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. London needs a 6/90/1 game to fill his salary bucket. I’m starting London in all leagues that use three wide receiver slots in their starting lineup. Mac Hollins In his fifth season in the NFL, Hollins posted his best year (57/690/4) with the Raiders. Over his previous 65 games, he only had 56 catches for 750 yards and six touchdowns. Hollins had one impact game (8/158/1) in 2022. I don’t see a high volume of targets requiring him to hit on a long score to pay off. Kyle Pitts In his rookie season (68/1,026/1 on 110 targets), Pitts was a big part of the Falcons’ offense. Atlanta threw the ball 573 times in 2021, compared to 415 last season (a drop of 27.6%). Based on this path, Pitts would have finished with 49 catches for 744 yards with the same opportunity in 2022. I don’t see a significant jump in pass attempts for the Falcons this year, and Pitts is coming off a significant knee injury. I expect him to be limited out of the gate, but his salary is low enough to be in play with a 3/40/1 game. Coin toss only while waiting for an update on his role/opportunity in Week 1. Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Carolina Panthers Defense. 18th vs. the run in 2022 with 17 rushing touchdowns 23rd against the pass with 25 scores, 10 interceptions, and 35 sacks Weakness on the defensive line, with the linebacking corps being a strength. Their secondary has some question marks coming into 2023. Carolina Panthers Bryce Young First NFL start after tossing 79 touchdowns and 12 interceptions over his final 27 games at Alabama. He won’t be a significant player rushing the ball. To reach a playable number at DraftKings and FanDuel, Young needs at least 250 passing yards and two scores with some value on the ground. His receiving lacks a star out of the gate, leading to him spreading the ball around to multiple receiving options. Miles Sanders In both formats, Sanders needs about 22.00 fantasy points to fill his fantasy bucket. He reached that level (29.60, 31.00, and 28.50) three times in 202s, helped by scoring six of his 11 touchdowns in those matchups. The Panthers will rotate in a second running back, requiring Sanders to be more active in the passing game (28, 26, and 20 catches over the past three seasons) to post a winning score. He can sometimes hit on a long TD, keeping him alive in some matchups if Carolina can play from the lead. I view him as overpriced in the daily games in Week 1. Chuba Hubbard Hubbard had three catches in three of his final five games in 2022. He led the Panthers in running back snaps from Week 15 to Week 18 last season. His best two games (18.90 and 15.30) in fantasy points in PPR formats barely support his opening salary while taking a back seat in touches
NFL Player Prop Bets Week 1
Because there is little to go on, Week 1 is always the most difficult week to forecast. Both from a fantasy and betting perspective. Still, it’s one of the busiest slates, and our NFL Player Prop Bets Week 1 looks
Like forecasting, the early lines available have been erratic. They’ll stabilize once the season begins. For this week, we’re looking at touchdown player props that offer large returns. Just hitting one of these bets brings a huge return on investment.
Let’s take a look at some of those favorable NFL Player Prop Bets Week 1 to target on this glorious first weekend of football.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings.
Tom Brady (QB) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Rush TD +800
Brady is famous for his one-yard QB dives into the end zone. He’s good for about three a year. There is a good chance he falls in for a score because he does it a handful of times every year. Despite his age, he continues to try the sneak on the goal line. Brady is also +8000 to punch in two scores.
Damien Williams (RB) Atlanta Falcons – Anytime TD +550
Everything we’ve heard out of Atlanta points to Williams having a shot to lead the Falcons in carries. However, the odds have Tyler Allgeier is the more likely to score a TD, which he is not. Williams will have a prominent role in this offense and has a shot at goal-line carries. Gambling on a pair of scores returns a huge +5500.
What other player props do we like this week?
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1
Welcome to the 2022 NFL season! We’ve got quite a debut game as the Rams host the Bills. Our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 covers all the fantasy football and DFS info you’ll need. Also, we will present our
The inaugural game of the 2022 NFL season is sure to be a good one as the defending champion Rams host a Buffalo Bills squad that is favored to be their top challengers this season. With an opening over/under of 52.5, there should be plenty of fireworks in the first game of the season.
Here is our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Buffalo Bills | 5 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 7 |
* above ranks are from the 2021 season
Too often we have subpar Thursday night matchups worsened by teams playing on a short week. That won’t be the case in the season opener. Both teams are prohibitive Super Bowl favorites and boasted top-1o offenses last season. Both squads also have deep and talented defenses, which will make every drive crucial.
Sean McVay, fresh off his first Lombardi Trophy, is one of the most innovative and intelligent coaches in the league. In McVay’s first five seasons at the helm, the Rams have made the playoffs four times and boast a 55-26 regular-season record. All of his teams have finished 11th or better in offense and 16th or better…
How will tonight’s Rams vs. Bills game go?
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Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 1
Welcome to another glorious NFL season. The first week of the season is always the most unpredictable. That’s why our Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 1 can help you identify underrated players that might make sneaky starts in the first week of the 2022 season. Of course, this isn’t the time to get cute and bench your starters for favorable matchups. It’s more of a list of players drafted as reserves that are in favorable spots in Week 1. They might be solid flex plays or good options for injured starters. Here are our Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 1 to help you get a win in the opening weekend of NFL action. Quarterbacks Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts) – Ryan takes on the Texans this week in a game the Colts should be able to score at will. He struggled last year, but now has significantly better weapons and a much better offensive line. With Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, and Nyheim Hines at his disposal in a favorable matchup he should be a solid start in redraft, SuperFlex, and DFS leagues. Carson Wentz (Washington Commanders) – I’m generally not one to prop up Wentz, but he goes up against the Jags this week. Also, Washington should have excellent weapons for him to throw to this season. Terry McLaurin we know is outstanding, however, first-round pick Jahan Dotson has been getting rave reviews and could be getting overlooked. Also, with J.D. McKissic in to make plays closer to the line of scrimmage, he isn’t a terrible option Week 1. Running Backs Michael Carter (New York Jets) – This isn’t an ideal matchup for Carter, nonetheless, Baltimore’s run defense is a bit overhyped this year because everyone threw on their secondary which was absolutely ravaged by injury. They are now healthy and a strong unit so the way for the Jets to move the ball against them will feature the backs. Everything the Jets’ have done this year points to Carter being the RB1 in New York to open the season. Even if it’s only a slight edge and we know he is an excellent pass catcher. He could be a nice option if you’re in need of a flex option. J.D. McKissic (Washington Commanders) – We already know McKissic is one of the highest upside pass-catching backs in the league, nevertheless, he could be a lot more than that early on. The assumption is Antonio Gibson slides in while Brian Robinson is out and gets the full workload, but what if he doesn’t? We know the coaching staff wants to move on and fears Gibson’s fumbling. Gibson was returning kicks just two weeks ago. There is a real chance that on top of pass-catching work McKissic sees closer to 50/50 split out the backfield. I also expect McKissic to be more trusted in the red zone. Boston Scott (Philadelphia Eagles) – Every time Miles Sanders is banged up we expect someone who isn’t Scott to get this massive workload and every time he’s out there leading this backfield in fantasy points. Sanders looks likely to play but is less than 100 percent. We also still don’t know how Kenneth Gainwell will be deployed. The Eagles use Scott between the 20s, in the red zone, and throw him the ball when he’s out there. At the very least he’s worth a long look if you’re searching the waiver wire this week. Damien Williams (Atlanta Falcons) – Williams is being completely ignored by the fantasy community and there is a good, maybe even a likely, chance that he leads this backfield in carries. Especially early in the season. There is no reason to believe he can’t be the RB1 on this team Week 1 and reports out of Atlanta point to this being the likely case. At the very least he is worth a waiver wire add to see what he does and he could be a strong DFS option if you need an inexpensive option. Wide Receivers DeVante Parker (New England Patriots) – I’m basing this play on the assumption that Jakobi Meyers will be treated as the WR1 in New England by Miami. With that said, Miami will deploy one of if not the best cornerback in the league Xavien Howard against Meyers. And with Byron Jones on IR, they have no one decent to cover Parker on the outside. Howard will take Meyers out of the game and the Pats will likely be losing and forced to throw downfield late. Parker should see plenty of jump balls and be the primary red-zone target on the outside. Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants) – There is a legitimate chance Robinson leads the Giants in targets this year. I even bet on it. He’s more of a PPR start here, but you can start a talented WR1 on the Giants in your flex if you want. I don’t love this passing attack in general, nonetheless, there are far worse options than this. Julio Jones (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – There is a good chance Julio is washed and makes me look silly. However, even if he’s 75 percent of what he once was he could be in for a big week. If ever he was going to have fantasy value it’s Week 1. This is as healthy as we’ll ever see him, maybe ever again. Also, Chris Godwin is recovering from his torn ACL shockingly well but is as unhealthy this week as we will see him all season if he plays at all. With Godwin shaky at best and Rob Gronkowski retiring, there is a huge window of opportunity opened for Jones. Not to mention having the greatest quarterback of all time throwing him the ball in a game with an over/under of 50. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Tennessee Titans) – Westbrook-Ikhine is clearly the deepest sleeper on this list, but it’s in the realm of possibilities he is utilized as the Titans’ WR1 early in the season. He’s the clear starter opposite
Fantasy Football Injury Report
Injuries are an unfortunate and inevitable part of the game. FullTime’s fantasy football injury report updates you on all the fantasy-relevant injuries each week. Week 1 is unique in there aren’t as many recent injuries to account for. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t several key ailments that can have a huge impact on the opening slate of games. Here are the most notable injuries to monitor ahead of Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. Fantasy Football Injury Report Chris Godwin (WR) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Reports on Godwin’s recovery from a torn ACL have been all over the place all year. Thus, his ADP has cycled up and down. This week, Godwin was seen on the practice field without a knee brace. This is obviously great news but his Week 1 status is truly unknown. The team and Godwin himself have expressed caution with an eye on being fully healthy in the second half of the season. There’s also no real need for the Buccaneers to rush the star wideout back with Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Mike Evans being perfectly capable of picking up the slack. As for now, we wouldn’t insert Godwin into any fantasy lineups until we see him play full speed in more than a “decoy” role. Allen Lazard (WR) Green Bay Packers – Lazard was surprisingly absent from Packers practice with an unsiclosed injury. The veteran wideout also missed time last week but the extent of the mystery injury is unknown. It’s a bit worrisome but too early to tell if it will impact the Week 1 tilt with the Vikings. We’ll have an update in Discord later this week. Teammate Christian Watson (knee) is looking more than likely to play this week, but is well off the fantasy radar. Zach Ertz (TE) Arizona Cardinals – Ertz is listed as day-to-day with a calf injury. We ranked Ertz high in our 2022 fantasy football rankings but we approach Week 1 with caution. As long as he’s starting, Ertz should be a top-10 option in Week 1. With WR DeAndre Hopkins suspended, Ertz should be in for an increased target share whenever he’s on the field. Jaylen Waddle (WR) Miami Dolphins – Waddle missed a significant portion of the preseason with a soft-tissue leg injury but Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel indicated the second-year wideout would be fine for Week 1. We’ve been wary of Waddle all summer due to unsustainable target share. Now, dealing with a frequently recoccuring soft-tissue ailment is even more worrisome. However, if you drafted Waddle, you start him against the Patriots. J.K. Dobbins (RB) Baltimore Ravens – Backfield injuries are nothing new for the Ravens. A year removed from tearing his ACL, Dobbins is still considered questionable to play versus the Jets this week. A video on Twitter picked up steam last week showing Dobbins limping after a drill. The club didn’t place Dobbins on the PUP list or IR as they did with teammate Gus Edwards, which is a positive sign. But, with Mike Davis and newly-signed Kenyan Drake available to carry the load in a game the Ravens are touchdown favorites, Dobbins is a very risky flex play in Week 1. Rondale Moore (WR) Arizona Cardinals – Moore returned to practice Monday after being sidelined last week. The undisclosed injury isn’t considered to be a threat to Moore’s Week 1 availability. Moore is a solid flex option in a game aginst the Chiefs with shootout potential. Isaiah McKenzie (WR) Buffalo Bills – McKenzie missed a week of practice with a groin injury but was a full participant on Monday. He’s slated to open the season as the Bills’ main slot receiver. Buffalo opens the NFL season on Thursday night in Los Angeles against the Rams. Zach Wilson (QB) New York Jets – Although there is a slight chance he’ll suit up against the Ravens, we’re expecting Joe Flacco to get the starting nod. Wilson had surgery on his knee after tweaking it during the Jets’ preseason opener. The sophomore signal caller has yet to practice since the injury. With Flacco more than capable of filling in- and maybe even offering an upgrade- we expect the club to proceed with caution. Flacco stating is a boost for Elijah Moore and the Jets’ pass-catchers. James Robinson (RB) Jacksonville Jaguars – A mere months since he ruptured his Achilles, James Robinson will be on the field in Week 1 for the Jags. This is quite a stunning recovery, but it’s one to approach with extreme caution. Just last season, Cam Akers defied odds by returning from an Achilles tear in less than a year but his explosiveness and speed was clearly impacted. Jacksovnille also has Travis Etienne fully healthy after his own serious injury that cost Etienne his rookie campaign. We’re expecting Etienne to be a strong weekly RB2 but are much more bearish on Robinson for 2022. The Jaguars travel to Washington to open the season as three-point dogs. Logan Thomas (TE) Washington Commanders – The Commanders removed Thomas (knee) from the PUP list and he’s considered questionable for Week 1. Thomas tore his ACL in Week 13, so he could be limited for some time, even if he’s active. For now, we would leave Thomas out of fantasy lineups for the foreseeable future. Van Jefferson (WR) Los Angeles Rams – LA’s third wideout, Jefferson has missed the entire summer with a knee injury and has not practiced ahead of Thursday’s game. Jefferson had a scope on his knee on August 4 and is the only player listed on LA’s injury report. He needs to be benched in all fantasy lineups. Ty Montgomery (RB) New England Patriots – Never trust Bill Belichick, who indicated that Montgomery could be cleared to start Week 1. Montgomery has been sidelined by an ankle injury and was expected to be out for a while. As of now, it’s hard to even define the roles that each of New England’s running backs might play. There’s just no way to know how the touches are going to be divided on a week-to-week basis. Rhamondre Stevenson stands to benefit
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 1
Fantasy football draft day is where champions are born, but to earn the prize, you’ve got to keep working all season. The best way to do that is to stay proactive on the waiver wire. Even the most well-prepared and assembled teams need reinforcements. Many fantasy rosters have already been assembled and open up free agency before the NFL season kicks off. Using rostered data from our friends and CBS, here are some free agents rostered in less than half of leagues to consider adding ahead of the fantasy football waiver wire Week 1. FAAB denotes Free Agent Budget Ty’Son Williams (RB) Baltimore Ravens (35% FAAB) – The unfortunate season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins ruined plenty of rosters. Dobbins was a popular third-round target and fantasy managers that selected him are scrambling. Williams, a 6-foot 220-pound undrafted rookie out of BYU, posted a 79th-percentile speed score and had carved out a role in Baltimore’s backfield before Dobbins went down. He’ll now move up to second, splitting touches with Gus Edwards. Williams is in a really good position to garner 150-plus touches for a Ravens squad that likes to use multiple backs, and he’s even an underrated receiver who could surprise in that area. Fantasy managers who lost Dobbins should be prepared to throw out an aggressive bid on the rookie runner. Elijah Moore (WR) New York Jets (10% FAAB) – Moore is one of the most coveted rookie wideouts per the analytics community. The No. 34 overall pick, Moore blasted a 4.40 40-yard dash and an elite, 98th-percentile agility score at Mississippi’s Pro Day. A minor quad injury cost Moore significant snaps during the preseason but he will open the season as the Jets’ No. 1 receiver. Moore is a screaming value who offers significant upside from where he can be drafted, or even added off the wire. Terrace Marshall (WR) Carolina Panthers (10% FAAB) – The No. 59 pick out of LSU, Marshall had a phenomenal preseason, ranking second in the NFL with 181 receiving yards and averaging over 20 yards per grab. Marshall stood out all summer and his performance even led to the Panthers releasing presumptive WR3 David Moore. Marshall locked up that role and should see significant playing time right away in an offense that utilized three-wide sets on 57% of their snaps last season. That number should grow with new starting QB Sam Darnold under center, who flashed a solid report with Marshall. Available in over 70% of leagues, Marshall offers WR4 potential right away and is worth an add in all formats. Rondale Moore (WR) Arizona Cardinals (8% FAAB) – By now you should be quite familiar with my infatuation with Rondale Moore. I view the rookie as a potentially potent vertical weapon out of the slot and have gone out of my way to target him in as many drafts as possible. As luck would have it, the Cardinals open the 2021 campaign in Tennessee, facing a Titans secondary that allowed 45.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers last season, worst in the league. Wayne Gallman (RB) Atlanta Falcons (6% FAAB) – There wasn’t room for Gallman in San Francisco’s crowded backfield, but Atlanta wisely scooped Gallman up off of waivers. For now, Gallman will act as the Falcons’ RB2 behind Mike Davis but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gallman force his way into a timeshare. Gallman was surprisingly good last season, ranking 12th among all running backs in yards after contact per attempt and forcing 27 missed tackles on just 147 attempts. Until we see Davis succeed as “the guy”, Gallman is worth a bench stash in deeper leagues. Randall Cobb (WR) Green Bay Packers (5% FAAB) – One of the demands that QB Aaron Rodgers made to return to Green Bay was for the Packers to reacquire Cobb and Brian Gutekunst obliged. From 2012-2018 with Rodgers under center, Cobb averaged 13.9 PPR points per game out of the slot. We can’t necessarily expect those kinds of numbers in 2021 now that Cobb is 32, but he can be a solid source of targets and receptions and is an instant upgrade from Allen Lazard. Tevin Coleman (RB) New York Jets (5% FAAB) – The Jets currently list Coleman as their starting running back. Now, this might not mean much, as New York is expected to trot out a full-blown committee backfield. But Coleman still has some speed, can catch the ball, and could carve out a solid role in a ‘hot hand’ approach. Only rostered in 46.3% of CBS leagues, Coleman is worth a speculative add. Austin Hooper (TE) Cleveland Browns (5% FAAB) – Hooper caught the second-most passes in Cleveland last year but that was with Odell Beckham Jr. missing most of the season. There has been some talk of expanding Hooper’s role in 2021 and he’s got a decent shot at posting top-15 fantasy numbers. Many fantasy managers are forced to stream tight ends, so Hooper can be a solid flier and gets a potentially high-scoring matchup against the Chiefs to open the season. Carson Wentz (QB) Indianapolis Colts (2% FAAB) – No starting quarterbacks were injured during the preseason, so it’s doubtful many people are looking to add a QB. Wentz is only rostered in 32.6% of leagues due in part to recent surgery and his disastrous 2020 campaign. Still, Wentz is reunited with Frank Reich, who coached Wentz to a tremendous 2017 season. Wentz has some intriguing young weapons in Indianapolis, an elite offensive line, and even gets a solid Week 1 matchup against a Seattle secondary that yielded the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing passers last season. 2021 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT Consider the 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Kit (Powered by FullTime Fantasy) a go-to source for all of our Fantasy Football content — for both free & premium members. 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NFL Week 1 RB DFS Breakdown
Shawn Childs previews the Week 1 Running Back landscape
Week 1 QB DFS Report
Shawn Childs is back with his DFS Week 1 NFL QB Breakdown report and cheatsheet.
Week 1: DraftKings Running Back Report
Le’Veon Bell Salary Game Info AVPG Scout PT/1000 $9,800 PIT@CLE 01:00PM ET 26.29 33.65 3.43 Despite playing only 12 games, Bell finished as the third highest scoring running back in PPR leagues in 2016. He averaged 28 touches per game with exceptional value in the passing game (75/616/2 on 94 targets). If he played 16 games, Le’Veon was on pace for 2,512 combined yards with 100 catches and 12 TDs or 411.2 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. His only missing link compared to the great seasons by the top running backs in NFL history is impactful TDs. Bell was a beast over his last seven games of the season (175 combined yards per game with nine TDs and 45 catches). In his only games against the Browns, Le’Veon had 201 combined yards with a TD and eight catches. Cleveland allowed the second most Fantasy points to RBs in 2016 with two teams scoring over 40 Fantasy points in PPR league. The Browns have a chance to be improved on defense this year, but they need to keep the Steelers’ offense off the field to keep Bell at a reasonable total. The only strike for Le’Veon is him holding out until September. This path tends to lead to injuries. Best matchup on the board based on data. David Johnson Salary Game Info AVPG Scout PT/1000 $9,400 ARI@DET 01:00PM ET 26.61 28.71 3.05 Johnson had over 100 combined yards in his first 15 games of 2016 before suffering an injury in Week 17. He finished with eight games with two TDs or more and three catches or more in each game. The offense in Arizona flows through him while his game has 100 catch upside. David averaged 25 touches in his 15 full games played while gaining massive yards per catch (11.0). The Lions were league average vs. RBs in 2016 (16th) with RBs catching 85 passes for 669 yards and three TDs. Stud of studs with an elite opportunity. He needs the second TD to post a winning score, which has a 50 percent chance of coming in. LeSean McCoy Salary Game Info AVPG Scout PT/1000 $8,200 NYJ@BUF 01:00PM ET 21.29 32.82 2.78 McCoy is at his best when at home. Last year he had five of his seven 100-yard rushing games and 11 of his 14 TDs at home. In his one full game vs. the Jets, he had 91 combined yards and four catches. In his second game, McCoy was knocked out of the game with an injury after 14 plays. The Jets finished 10th in the league against the RB position. Buffalo has weakness at WR so New York will push up their safeties to force Tyrod to beat them with his arm. Typically a great play at home, but he’s priced extremely high out of the gate. Ezekiel Elliott Salary Game Info AVPG Scout PT/1000 $8,100 NYG@DAL 08:30PM ET 22.73 25.71 3.17 I’m going with the idea that Elliott plays in Week 1. In his two games vs. the Giants in his rookie season, Ezekiel had 159 combined yards with one catch and no TDs. He finished with seven games with over 100 yards rushing and 16 TDs in his 15 games played while averaging 23.6 touches per game. His next step is increasing his value in the passing game (32/363/1). Elliott is a super back with elite scoring ability. New York has the sixth best defense against RBs with only one team scoring over 30 Fantasy points in a PPR leagues. This isn’t a great matchup so he’ll need to be active in the passing game to be in play. DeMarco Murray Salary Game Info AVPG Scout PT/1000 $7,400 OAK@TEN 01:00PM ET 19.36 18.46 2.50 Murray paid off in his first five starts in 2016 thanks to his much lower salary. He finished last year as the fifth highest scoring RB in PPR leagues while holding off the explosive Derrick Henry. There’s no doubt DeMarco can play at a high level in the NFL. A hamstring injury in August did open up the door for Henry to gain more momentum. This season his opportunity has to take a step back and Derrick may steal his TD thunder. The Raiders struggled to defend RBs in 2016 (23rd) plus the Titans have depth in their receiving core. Tennessee will score in this game, but a $7400 salary commands over 30 Fantasy points. Too pricy for me. Devonta Freeman Salary Game Info AVPG Scout PT/1000 $7,000 ATL@CHI 01:00PM ET 18.44 20.24 2.89 Freeman battled a concussion issue in August. He’s been clear to play in Week 1. In 2016, Devonta only had two games with over 100 yards rushing due to Tevin Coleman play at a high level as well. He flashed more value as a pass catcher in 2015 (73/578/3) while almost repeating his value in the run game (1079/11). Last year the Falcons’ scored a ton of points creating plenty of chances. The Bears played better than expect vs. the RB position in 2016 (5th in the NFL in Fantasy points allowed in PPR leagues). Nice player, but he can’t match the top RBs in touches. Jay Ajayi Salary Game Info AVPG Scout PT/1000 $6,500 TB@MIA 01:00PM ET 14.74 18.80 2.89 There’s no doubt that Ajayi has explosiveness in his game after posted three games with over 200 yards rushing in 2016. If he can add pass catches to his resume, which he showed in college (50/535/4 in 2014), the Dolphins will have their hands on an impact back. His success over the last 11 games projected over 16 games would be 333 rushes for 1680 yards, 10 TDs, 28 catches, and 156 receiving yards. Tampa ended up 22nd in the NFL in Fantasy points allowed to RBs with one team scoring over 40 Fantasy points. Miami has talent on offense so they should push the issue on the scoreboard creating scoring chances for Jay. For him to be in play at this level, he needs