NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Eagles – 5 Over/Under: 45.0 Philadelphia comes a sensational season in 2022, but they finished one step short of greatness. Jalen Hurts offers power running with developing value in the passing game. The Eagles have a top offensive line, and their defense created plenty of pressure on the quarterback last season. Philly has three excellent receiving options (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert) while adding D’Andre Smith in the offseason. New England is struggling to find their offensive identity after losing Tom Brady a few seasons ago. The Patriots have talent on defense, and they want to run the ball to control the clock. Mac Jones is a much better player than most believe. He can’t reach elite status without better play and production from his receiving corps. Rhamondre Stevenson will get plenty of touches this season, while Ezekiel Elliott brings experience off the bench. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts Hurts continues to be a beast in the run game, highlighted by his stats in 2022 (165/760/13) despite missing two weeks. The improvement in his receiving options last year led to career-highs in completions (306), pass attempts (460), passing yards (3,701), passing touchdowns (22), yards per pass attempts (8.0), and completion rate (66.5). He passed for 300 yards or more in five matchups (333/1, 340/3, 380/3, 315/0, and 301/1), lifting him to third in quarterback scoring (423.05) in four-point passing touchdown formats. Hurts scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (37.35, 31.00, 30.05, 31.25, 31.35, 38.20, 32.55, 39.5, and 45.20) in nine of his 18 starts (including the postseason). New England ranked seventh defending quarterback (19.16 FPPG), with failure in two matchups (30.70 and 35.50 fantasy points). Quarterbacks rushed for 322 yards on 70 carries vs. the Patriots with two scores. To reach a winning score in Week 1, Hurts must score more than 30.00 fantasy points. It’s not the best matchup, but he is still a coin flip in any week due to his high floor in the run game and his exceptional receiving options. D’Andre Swift Swift appeared to kick down the fantasy door in Week 1 (15/144/1 with three catches for 31 yards) of 2022. Unfortunately, Detroit only gave him 17 touches over the following two games, leading to 133 combined yards with one score and five catches. A shoulder issue cost him three weeks plus a shallow role over the next five matchups (23/61/2 with 16 catches for 109 yards and one touchdown). Swift gained 453 yards with three touchdowns and 24 catches on 73 touches over his final six games. He finished the year ranked 21st in running back scoring (191.10) in PPR formats, with three weeks of success (26.50, 21.10, and 27.70 fantasy points). The Lions only had him on the field for 34.7% of their plays in 2022, which invites a higher ceiling with a higher role and a healthy season. The Eagles running backs had only 48 catches for 262 yards and no catches on 61 targets last season. Philadelphia should give the most touches in Week 1, but Swift doesn’t appear to have upside in scoring in close or catching many balls. To score 22.00 fantasy points, he needs a touchdown with more than 100 combined yards and about five catches. A three-back rotation isn’t his friend. Kenneth Gainwell With the Eagles’ abandoning the running back position in the passing game last season, Gainwell finished with 409 combined yards with four touchdowns and 23 catches. His only fantasy game of value (12/112/1 with one catch for nine yards) came in the first round of the postseason. There has been positive talk about Gainwell over the summer, but his role/opportunity is unclear. More of a gamble while needing 16.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to pay off. A.J. Brown The Eagles threw the ball 81 more times than I expected to their wide receivers in 2022, giving Brown a much better opportunity. He finished with career-highs in catches (88), receiving yards (1,496), and targets (145) while scoring 11 touchdowns and gaining an impressive 17.0 yards per catch. Brown gained 20 or more yards on 26.1% of his catches. His best output came in five games (10/155, 6/156/3, 8/119/2, 9/181, and 6/103). He averaged 8.5 targets last year. Based on his salary and outcomes in 2022, Brown would have filled his salary bucket 20% of the time over his 20 games played. Wide receivers had 207 catches for 2,688 yards and 15 touchdowns on 338 targets against New England in 2022. I don’t expect a 30.00 fantasy game, so I’ll look for upside elsewhere. DeVonta Smith Last year, Smith saw his opportunity grow by over 30%, leading to an exceptional year (95/1,196/7 on 136 targets). He caught 69.9% of his chances while being an impact player from Week 15 to Week 17 (5/126, 8/113/2, and 9/115) when fantasy championships were on the line. Smith gained more than 100 yards in three other matchups (8/169/1, 5/102/1, and 7/100). His season started with a goose egg on four targets, with emptiness in three other contests (3/17, 5/23, 2/22, and 2/36). Over his final 12 starts (including the postseason), Smith had 70 catches for 951 yards and six touchdowns on 105 targets. Smith needs about 29.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to finish as an edge play in Week 1. He reached that threshold twice (30.90 and 31.30 – 10% of the time) last season. I expect more big plays in

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bears – 2.5 Over/Under: 43.5 The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bears – 2.5

Over/Under: 43.5

The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him with their new Love. The summer reports have been positive for Jordan Love, especially his connection with Christian Watson. The running back position remains in the hands of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Green Bay added WR Jaylen Reed and TE Luke Musgrove to improve the depth of their passing options.

The Bears have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but they have the tools to be a much better offense in 2023. DJ Moore is an upgrade at wideout, and a healthy Darnell Mooney paired with Cole Kmet gives Justin Fields the weapons to push much higher in his pass production. He remains a beast running the ball. Chicago will rotate in three backs out of the gate.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love

Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy.
In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts.
He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown).
The Bears ranked 26th in quarterback defense (21.36 FPPG). Despite their lower rankings, only one quarterback posted an impact game (39.85 fantasy points). On the positive side, seven quarterbacks scored between 24.90 and 28.90 fantasy points.
Love is priced in a favorable range, and he does have one explosive wideout. Let the “Magic” happen.

Aaron Jones

Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59).
He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches).
Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games.

In Week 2, he posted an impact game (170 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) vs. the Bears.
Chicago had the second-worst defense against running backs.
The Packers will rotate in two backs, and Love may not get Jones as many targets as in the past with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
He needs a 25.00 fantasy point game to be in the mix. I’ll take the under…

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Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 1

The long wait is over! Another fantastic fantasy football season has arrived. While that means all is good, many early drafters already need to explore FullTime‘s Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 1. Whether you drafted Jonathan Taylor, had some unfortunate injuries, or are just looking for depth, being proactive even before the season begins is a great way to increase your odds of winning. Also, it can give you a leg up on your opponent. However, be cautious with your FAAB spending this early. The championship is 17 weeks away. Be proactive, but also budget wisely. Here are the top fantasy football waiver wire: Week 1 players to target. FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget Deon Jackson (RB) Indianapolis Colts (10 % FAAB) – It’s a new regime in Indy so there’s no guarantee that Jackson will be used in the same way he was last year when Jonathan Taylor was absent. However, sans Taylor and Zack Moss, there is a good chance Jackson will see double-digit touches against Jacksonville. In the four games Jackson surpassed 10 touches in a game last season, he averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. Raheem Mostert (RB) Miami Dolphins (10% FAAB) – With Jeff Wilson on IR, Mostert and De’Von Achane (10% FAAB) will lead Miami’s backfield for at least the first four weeks of the season. Mostert quietly posted RB26 numbers last season and should get the most touches against the Chargers. Achane is the upside play and offers the most long-term potential. Marvin Mims (WR) Denver Broncos (10% FAAB) – The analytics crowd has been on Mims all offseason. However, his ADP remained well outside the top 150. That all changed when Jerry Jeudy went down. Mims has now screamed up draft boards. He’ll open the season in the starting lineup against a vulnerable Raiders’ secondary. Mims will remain in three-wide sets. He’s got a clear path to top 50 numbers. Marvin Mims is going to open the season as a starter for Denver after a rocky offseason for that position group. There’s a chance if he develops, he ends it established as the best WR on the roster. Some #ReceptionPerception positive Indicators on Mims… – 72.2% success rate… pic.twitter.com/VEmb6BdZQB — Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 28, 2023 Kenneth Gainwell (RB) Philadelphia Eagles (8% FAAB) – I like all of Philadelphia’s backs at cost. However, Gainwell has the lowest ADP of the trio. Plus, he was receiving plenty of first-team reps all preseason. I’m not sure I buy into the RB1 rumors. After all, the Eagles will rotate all three backs and have Jalen Hurts dominating goal-line looks. However, Gainwell largely went un-drafted early on and has proven to be a reliable pass-catching weapon. My numbers still project D’Andre Swift to lead this backfield. But Gainwell is a priority add in free agency. Nico Collins (WR) Houston Texans (6% FAAB) – Collins quietly was targeted at an impressive rate last season. And that has only multiplied with Houston’s new regime. C.J. Stroud proved to be very accurate all summer and Collins was unquestionably Stroud’s primary read. Collins should contend for top-40 fantasy numbers and is still widely available in many leagues. Brock Purdy (QB) San Francisco 49ers (5% FAAB) – After trading Trey Lance to Dallas, there is zero doubt of who San Francisco’s starter is. Also, Purdy is fully healthy and will open the season in Pittsburgh against a Steelers’ secondary that ceded the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks a year ago. Including the postseason, Purdy posted top-10 fantasy numbers in his last five starts of 2023. A top-15 season is in play. Deuce Vaughn (RB) Dallas Cowboys (5% FAAB) – Most people draft in August, so Vaughn’s breakout summer likely means he was selected. However, Vaughn might have gone undrafted in early leagues. The Cowboys manufactured touches for the diminutive Vaughn and he delivered throughout the preseason. Dallas has shown a penchant for using multiple backs. If the continues, Vaughn has a chance to play his way into the flex conversation in larger leagues. At the very least, he is a desirable hand-cuff pick for Tony Pollard managers. Sam Howell (QB) Washington Commanders (4% FAAB) – Howell looked good this preseason and has some intriguing weapons in place. Even better, he’ll open the season at home against a horrid Arizona club that looks like they won’t be able to sustain drives or stop anybody. Howell has solid streaming value in the opener. Hunter Henry (TE) New England Patriots (4% FAAB) – With Bill O’Brien back as the play-callers, it is thought that the wide receiver-thin Patriots will employ a two-tight end offense. This could be similar to the strategy that O’Brien championed in his first run as the club’s offensive coordinator. Henry will fill the Rob Gronkowski role in that scenario. Also, Henry has flashed good chemistry with QB Mac Jones all summer. With his solid red-zone skills, Henry could compete for TE1 numbers. Noah Fant (TE) Seattle Seahawks (3% FAAB) – Fant was TE17 last season but is almost completely being ignored on draft day. Granted, the arrival of Jaxon Smith-Njigba is playing a large role in that. However, Fant’s role should remain largely unchanged. He might not see a steep decline in the 63 targets he earned in 2022. Isaiah Hodgins (WR) New York Giants (3% FAAB) – Handicapping the Giants’ receiving corps is tricky. Also, the Giants ranked just 26th in passing last season. Hodgins is currently the club’s No. 1 wideout. Along with teammate Darius Slayton (1% FAAB), Hodgins is worth a speculative bid to see how things shake out in New York. Romeo Doubs (WR) Green Bay Packers (3% FAAB) – Although he’s dealing with a hamstring injury, Doubs boasted a 12% target share from Jordan Love in the preseason. Of course, we’ll have to monitor the injury report for the season opener. However, even if Doubs is limited against the Bears, he should be rostered in most formats. My projections are favorable for Green Bay in 2023. That’s why

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Commanders – 7 Over/Under: 39.0 The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Commanders – 7

Over/Under: 39.0

The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is on the PUP list with no clear timetable to return to the starting lineup. Incoming rookie Clayton Tune looks poised to start in Week 1 after getting drafted in the fifth round this year. James Conner is the lead back with minimal competition for snaps. Zack Ertz is trending toward a sit in Week 1. Arizona will feature Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the passing game. They hope Michael Wilson can handle their WR3 role at some point in the season.

Washington has a top defense with a developing quarterback (Sam Howell) who will be making his second career start. The change at offensive coordinator could lead to a bump in production at running back in the passing game, rewarding Antonio Gibson. Brian Robinson is their power running with the inside track to score in close. A turf toe issue may keep Terry McLaurin on the sideline in Week 1. For now, Jahan Dotson assumes the lead wide receiver role, and Curtis Samuel gets a bump in chances.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Arizona Cardinals

Clayton Tune

Clayton Tune was Arizona’s shot at a future quarterback. His mechanics need work to improve his accuracy under duress and on the move. He can read defenses, but his arm doesn’t always have the fire to win in tight coverage.
Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. He was also active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
I don’t know if he will start with the Cardinals signing Joshua Dobbs and releasing Colt McCoy.
Washington had a league-average defense vs. quarterbacks in 2022 (18.84 FPPG).
Tune has to walk before being considered to start any format. I have a feeling he will make progress as the season moves on if Arizona gives him starting snaps.

James Conner

Conner finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games last season. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18, he had a shin injury.
From Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
The Cardinals will give him 15+ touches with some value in catches. The lack of quarterback play is a significant concern for…

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NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5 Over/Under: 41.0 The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5

Over/Under: 41.0

The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting the year third on the depth chart. San Francisco has the best all-around running back (Christian McCaffrey) in the game, with three productive pieces (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle) at receiver. Their star DE Nick Bosa wants a new deal, and he has yet to report to the team. The 49ers need his pass rush (34 sacks over his last 33 games) to maintain their high ranking on defense.

The Steelers struggled to score points (308), with Kenny Pickett assuming the quarterback duties after Ben Roethlisberger retired. The Steelers’ offense has depth at running back (Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren) and the talent to move the ball via the pass with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. The key to all players is increased production by Pickett.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy

Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts at Iowa. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
Over his eight full starts, Purdy attempted more than 30 passes in only two games (MIA – 37 and @LV – 35). He had a floor of two touchdowns in his first in seven matchups while delivering one impact game (348/4).
His completion rate (67.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) rank highly in the NFL.
Purdy saw his season end in the Super Bowl due to an injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February.
Pittsburgh was about league-average defending quarterbacks (19.59 FPPG) last season, but two offenses posted impact games (32.40 and 32.25). They played without their top pass rusher (T.J. Watt) for seven games.
Despite his success last year, Purdy was a modified game manager. He has to prove his elbow is healthy before riding him in the daily space. The 49ers have plenty of receiving weapons, so I can’t totally write him off in Week 1.

Christian McCaffrey

Over his final nine games with the 49ers, McCaffrey gained 1,066 yards with 10 touchdowns and 39 catches, an average of 18.94 FPPG in PPR formats.
His salary requires 35.00 fantasy points at DraftKings for him to be worth his investment. He posted one impact game (40.60), with three high-floor showings (28.60, 29.30, and 31.30).
Pittsburgh gave up six receiving scores to running back in 2022, but they limited the damage in catches (64) and receiving yards (523). Their defense held backs to 4.2 yards per carry with seven scores on the ground.
McCaffrey isn’t the workhorse he once was with the Panthers, but he will get plenty of chances to make plays. His pass-catching ability set a nice floor while needing multiple scores to pay off his top-tier salary

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NFL Week 1 Jaguars at Colts: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Jaguars at Colts: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Jaguars – 4.5 Over/Under: 45.5 The Jaguars have an ascending offense led by Trevor Lawrence. He had growth in all areas in his sophomore season, but he lacked big plays (only three completions of 40 yards or more). Calvin Ridley looks locked and loaded to have a big year after sitting on the sideline since the fifth week of 2021. Last year, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram had career seasons in their first year with the Jaguars. Travis Etienne looks poised to push higher up the running back rankings, even with Tank Bigsby commanding some touches in his rookie campaign. Indianapolis had a black cloud hanging over their preseason due to Jonathan Taylor wanting to be traded. After placing him on the injured reserve for four games, the Colts lack identity at running back. Anthony Richardson will get plenty of carries in his first NFL start, but can he throw the ball well enough early in his career to deliver wins for Indy? The combination of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs has an upside feel. The question is whether or not Richardson will attempt more than 30 passes in many games to support his top receivers in the fantasy market. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence Lawrence finished seventh in quarterback scoring (20.83 FPPG) in 2022 while delivering two impact games (37.10 and 32.00) in fantasy points. In two starts vs. the Colts, he gained 432 combined yards with five scores. The addition of Calvin Ridley gives a higher chance of delivering passing touchdowns and adding length to his yards per pass attempt (7.0 in 2022 and 6.0 in 2021). Lawrence adds value to his stat line by running the ball (73/334/2 and 62/291/5). Indy allowed 25 passing touchdowns last year with 10 interceptions and 44 sacks. I don’t see this game turning into a shootout due to the Colts’ lack of an explosive passing quarterback. Lawrence has the tools to shine, and he may hit on a 50+ yard touchdown in this matchup. His salary requires at least 25.00 fantasy points to be viable. I expect Lawrence to finish close to this number in Week 1. Travis Etienne The Jaguars ran the ball 32.3 times a game in the preseason, leading to 420 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Etienne rushed for more than 100 yards in six games last year (including in the playoffs). He scored over 20.00 fantasy points in only three games (25.20, 26.60, and 23.00). Jacksonville gave him 20+ touches in five matchups. He finished 17th in running back scoring (208.10) despite a slow start over his first four games (34/144 and 8/81), while James Robinson (51/230/3 with 6/33/1) played well over the first three weeks. The Jaguars will rotate in a second back, leading to Etienne seeing about 60% of the team’s snaps. To reach a winning score in more weeks, Etienne must score more often and be more active in the passing game. Not ideal for Week 1, but he has the wheels to hit on a long TD, keeping in the explosive mix. Tank Bigsby Over his last 25 games at Auburn, Bigsby rushes for 2,069 yards and 20 touches on 402 carries while chipping in the passing game (51/364 on 76 targets). He ranked third in the preseason in rushing yards (159) on 28 carries. Bigsby didn’t score while losing one ball at the goal line. I get the buzz in the preseason, but Etienne is the dynamic back in this offense. He is overpriced in Week 1 for his expected opportunity. Calvin Ridley Over the summer, Ridley flashed speed and quickness in training camp while offering elite route running. He continues to shoot up draft boards, and I support his movement. When at his best in 2020 (90/1,374/9 on 143 targets), Ridley was the fifth highest scoring wideout (283.90). He gained more than 100 yards in eight games (9/130/2, 7/109/2, 5/110, 8/136, 5/108, 8/124/1, 10/163/1, and 5/130). The Jaguars’ wide receiver had 238 catches for 2,670 yards and 19 touchdowns on 369 targets last year. The addition of Ridley will undoubtedly push them higher in all categories in 2023. Based on his salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, Ridley should glow like a beacon in the night. Ridley needs a 7/100/1 game to place him in the money in the DFS market. His one negative is the Jaguars may not need to throw the ball much in the second half. Read more about the FullTime Fantasy’s staff feelings about Calvin Ridley in 2023 here. Christian Kirk Kirk set career highs in catches (84), receiving yards (1,108), touchdowns (8), and targets (133) in his first year with the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Ridley is now the true WR1 for Jacksonville. On the positive side, Kirk will see weaker coverage. He gained over 100 yards in three games (6/117, 9/105/2, and 6/104/1) in 2022 with three other 20+ fantasy weeks (6/78/2, 8/76/1, and 6/99/1) in PPR formats. Kirk only had 11 targets in his two games (6/78/2 and 4/24/1) vs. the Colts. With Ridley expected to be popular in the DFS market in Week 1, Kirk could be the against-the-grain play. His salary requires about 22.00 fantasy points to be an option. Zay Jones Jones outperformed expectations in 2022 (82/823/5 on 121 targets) while working close to the line of scrimmage (10.0 yards per catch). He posted two impact games (11/145 and 6/109/3) plus three competitive

NFL Week 1 Texans at Ravens: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Texans at Ravens: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Ravens – 9.5 Over/Under: 44.0 Baltimore has a primo matchup for their offense in Week 1, and Lamar Jackson has a much better receiving corps heading into 2023. Zay Flower has been getting plenty of hype in training camp for his speed and quickness, and Rashod Bateman looks ready to shine out of the gate. The Ravens have a stud tight end (Mark Andrews) with plenty of firepower at the position off the bench. Baltimore will run the ball a lot against Houston’s run defense, which ranked poorly in 2022. The Texans stroll into this matchup with a high-upside rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud). They upgraded their tight end position in the offseason by signing Dalton Schultz. Houston has a young group of wideouts – Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and John Metchie that will give defenses fits as the season progresses. With Baltimore expected to have success scoring, the Texans will have to air the ball out to stay in the game. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Houston Texans C.J. Stroud Stroud makes his first start in the NFL vs. Ravens defense that ranked 26th in passing yards allowed while minimizing the damage in passing TDs (20). Baltimore did get after the quarterback (48 sacks) in 2022. Over his final 25 starts at Ohio State, Stroud threw 85 touchdown passes with only 12 interceptions. He offered minimal value in the run game. Houston has some intriguing young wide receivers that should help move the chains. Baltimore had a top-tier run defense last year, pointing to the Texans needing to finish drives with passing touchdowns in the red zone. I don’t see a difference-maker gain by Stroud. He needs about 250 passing yards and three scores to pay off. I expect him to be on a low percentage of rosters, making him worth a dart or two. Dameon Pierce Pierce played well in his rookie season (220/939/4 with 30 catches for 165 yards and one touchdown), but he was worthless in the fantasy market after Week 10 (55/167/1 with eight catches for 39 yards) while missing the final four games with an ankle injury. His pass-protecting skills are below par, pointing to Pierce standing on the sideline on passing downs. Houston will rotate in a second back, limiting the ceiling of Pierce. A top run defense should limit his scoring upside. Pierce almost needs 100 yards rushing and two scores to pay off. I have him in my fade column in the DFS market in Week 1 Devin Singletary Most Dameon Pierce supporters don’t respect Singletary. He’s gained over 1,000 combined yards in back-to-back seasons with the high-scoring Bills. Singletary averaged 38.7 catches over the past three seasons with some value in scoring (14 combined touchdowns in 2021 and 2022). Game flow may favor him in this matchup. He scored over 18.00 fantasy points in PPR formats twice last season. Nice Collins In the early draft season, Collins ranked 54th at wide receiver, translating to just over 7.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues last year. He has three career scores over his 24 games with Houston while averaging 2.9 catches for 39 yards. Last year, Collins scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in one game (5/49/1). His size (6’4” and 215 lbs.) gives Stroud a big target at the goal line, and Collins worked more as a big play receiver (17.8 yards per catch) in college. He needs the best game of his career to be winning play. I’ll pass due to Houston expected to rotate in four wideouts plus service Dalton Schultz with targets at tight end. Robert Woods Veteran wide receiver with an excellent three-year run with the Rams from 2018 to 2020 (86/1,219/6, 90/1,134/2, and 90/936/6). Wood also had success rushing the ball (266/3,289/14) over this span. A torn ACL cost him eight games in 2021, followed by a quiet year with the Titans (53/527/2). At age 31, his best days are behind him. Woods has the resume and experience to post a 5/50/1 game that works for his Week 1 salary. More of a gamble than a winning play in the DFS market. John Metchie The Texans drafted Metchie in the second round in 2022, but he missed all of last season with a battle with promyelocytic leukemia. The year off did help him recover from a torn ACL with Alabama. In his best season in college, Metchie caught 96 balls for 1,142 yards and eight scores on 133 targets. His stock should rise as the second moves on, but without a starting job, he would only be a flier in the DFS market. Tank Dell Dell was a beast over his final two seasons (90/1,329/12 and 109/1,398/17) at Houston. His skill set and quickness point to a slot role with the Texans in his rookie year. Dell is undersized (5’8” and 165 lbs.), but he looks ready to handle the next step in his career. Dell had a 5/65/1 game in the preseason before being limited with a slight hamstring issue. For someone looking for a $3,000 salary savior at DraftKings, he should have the opportunity to be a winning play based on game flow. Dalton Schultz Schultz blossomed into a top-12 tight end over the past three seasons at Dallas (63/615/4, 78/808/8, and 57/577/5). The Texans’ tight ends had 77 catches for 959 yards and eight touchdowns on 130 targets in 2022. Schultz scored 19.00 fantasy points or more in three (19.10, 24.60,

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Saints – 3 Over/Under: 41.5 After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored).

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Saints – 3

Over/Under: 41.5

After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored). The Titans have a better foundation for their passing attack by signing DeAndre Hopkins. Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Ryan Tannehill the tools to have a rebound in his passing stats. Derrick Henry remains a beast, and Tennessee looks to have hit on an upside back running back option (Tyjae Spears) in this year’s draft class.

New Orleans will have the best overall offense in the NFC South if Michael Thomas regains his previous form and stays healthy all season. Derek Carr has sneaky upside, thanks to Chris Olave and the potential growth by A.T. Perry. There have been positive reports about the play of Juwan Johnson in training camp. The combination of Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Williams points to solid production on the ground.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill comes off down seasons (2,536/13) while missing five games with an ankle injury. He averaged only 27.1 pass attempts.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins gives him a trusted WR1 with change-mover ability and scoring upside.
The Titans still want to run the ball and play good defense, but teams will have success passing the ball against them. If Tennessee falls behind early, they will be forced to move the ball via the pass.
New Orleans had the second-best pass defense (3,413/7 with 48 sacks) in the league.
Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Tannehill big-play threats.
I’m in the camp that this matchup could be higher scoring than expected, giving Tannehill a chance to pay off handsomely in the DFS market. He’s far from a lock, but ownership should be an edge if his ticket comes in.

Derrick Henry

Over his last 40 games, Henry averaged 129.2 yards, 1.1 touches, and 1.75 catches on 25.4 touches (21.27 FPPG in PPR formats).
His yards per carry (4.3 and 4.4) came in well below 2019 (5.1) and 2020 (5.4) due to a step back in play by his offensive line and fewer threats in the passing game.
The Titans will get Tyjae Spears involved in some way, but I don’t expect him to be a significant factor in Henry’s role in this matchup.
New Orleans had a sharp regression in their play defending the run in 2022 (4.5 yards per carry, leading to 2,218 yards and 14 touchdowns). Offenses ran the ball 28.9 times a game against them.
Henry won’t catch many balls, so he needs multiple scores of a long run to post a winning score for his salary.

DeAndre Hopkins…

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NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Vikings – 6 Over/Under: 45.5 The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has

NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Vikings – 6

Over/Under: 45.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has a 31-38 record while gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt in his career. Last year, Tampa threw the ball 751 times but allowed only 22 sacks. Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly was the most significant factor, not the offensive line. The Bucs will throw the ball a lot less in 2023, with a spike in sacks and bad passing plays. Mike Evans hopes to extend his streak of at least 1,000 receiving yards to 10 seasons. Tampa hopes Rachaad White can make more explosive plays in his second year with the Bucs. Chirs Godwin capitalized on his time with Brady, leading to 202 catches for 2,126 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two years.

Minnesota had the best wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) in the land, based on fantasy ADPs all summer. The Vikings want to attack via the pass, and they added another dynamic wideout (Jordan Addison) in this draft class. The running back position is in transition, but Minnesota hopes Alexander Mattison can carry the RB1 load. T.J. Hockenson played the best ball of his career after arriving midseason to the Vikings. K.J. Osborn gives Kirk Cousins another dependable receiver to move the ball.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

Over his last 18 starts. Mayfield passed for more than 235 yards in one game (11/28/2021 – 247/1). He has 18 touchdowns over this span when starting, with 18 interceptions and 57 sacks (525 pass attempts – 10.9%). Tom Brady threw the ball 1,452 times in 2021 and 2022, but he only was sacked 44 times (2.9%). The bottom line with this rant is that the Vikings could be a gold mine in Week 1 despite their poor outlook.
The Vikings had the fifth-worst pass defense (22.02 FPPG), with nine teams passing for 300 yards (333/1, 418/2, 326/3, 330/1, 301/2, 382/2, 369/0, 330/3, and 334/1). Their defense finished with 35 sacks.
Compared to 2022, the Vikings’ defense should be better in the secondary if Lewis Cine seizes a starting job and one of their young cornerbacks steps up to handle a starting gig. I see a below-par defensive line with three assets on the first two levels of their defense – Marcus Davenport, Danielle Hunter, and Jordan Hicks.
As much as I expect Mayfield to fail over the long haul in 2023, Tampa will chase on the scoreboard, and he does have two proven wide receivers and a pass-catching running back.

Rachaad White

The Bucs’ running backs had 338 catches for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns on 286 targets over the past two seasons. Again, their success was tied to Brady dumping the ball off and the elite number of pass attempts by Tampa Bay.
White ranked 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues, gaining 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch. He did secure 50 of his 58 targets.
Running backs had 90 catches for 667 yards and four touchdowns on 115 targets against Minnesota in 2022.
Game flow should favor him in the passing game, and his salary is low enough that a touchdown added to his expected…

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NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bengals – 2 Over/Under: 47.5 The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bengals – 2

Over/Under: 47.5

The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 is a return to the Super Bowl while bringing home a championship to their fans. In the offseason, Cincinnati tried to upgrade their tight end position (Irv Smith). To continue their rise in the AFC, their defense must stop offenses in the most critical part of the game – the fourth quarter.

It’s showtime for Deshaun Watson after the Browns paid him $230 million in 2022. Cleveland has a stud running back with Nick Chubb, with improving depth and upside at wide receiver – Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman, and David Bell. In addition, the Browns have a developing tight end (David Njoku).

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow

Last year, Burrow scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four of his first 12 starts (35.50, 44.05, 32.25, and 32.90). The Browns kept him in check (17.80 and 19.95 fantasy points) in his two matchups.
In his rookie season, he posted two stellar games (335/3 and 440/4) against Cleveland.
The Browns had the best quarterback fantasy defense (15.00 FPPG) in 2022, one notch above Cincinnati’s pass defense.
The key for Burrow in this matchup is a longer pass window.
His calf issue appears to be healed, but the fantasy market needs to see him in game action before trusting that Burrow is on top of his game.
His matchup suggests fading him, but Cinci had too many receiving weapons to avoid Burrow. In addition, the Browns should score in this matchup.
He needs at least 300 yards with three touchdowns to be in the mix in the daily games in Week 1.

Joe Mixon

Mixon’s ticket came in only once last season (Week 6 – 55.10 fantasy points), helping me win $250,000 at DraftKings. He scored between 17.00 and 21.50 fantasy points) in six matchups, none of which would support his current salary.
The Bengals will rotate in a second running back, but Mixon may have a more significant role out of the gate.
Burrow will use his running backs in the passing game close to the goal line – 103/796/7 on 132 targets. Their backs had the third most catches (103) in the league in 2022.
Three times his salary seems reasonable, leaving some upside if Mixon hits on a second touchdown or a bunch of receptions.
Viable rotational running back upside in Week 1.

Ja’Marr Chase

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Tag: Week 1