Late-Round Fantasy Targets
Late-Round Fantasy Targets We’ve heard people speculating who will be the next Puka Nacua all offseason. The correct answer is nobody. However, a better question is “Who are the Late-Round Fantasy Targets I should focus on in 2024?” We don’t
We’ve heard people speculating who will be the next Puka Nacua all offseason. The correct answer is nobody. However, a better question is “Who are the Late-Round Fantasy Targets I should focus on in 2024?”
We don’t expect these choices to produce anywhere close to Nacua’s breakout rookie campaign. But many of these late-round targets are worth stashing on the chance that they develop into quality fantasy producers in 2024.
Looking at our award-winning 2024 fantasy football rankings and extensive tools, here are some of the Late-Round Fantasy Targets to draft in 2024.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) – I faded Smith last year. Predicting him to regress after his career year in 2022 was easy. However, Smith was solid down the stretch. posting three top-8 weekly finishes in Seattle’s final seven outings. Additionally, I’m a fan of the Seahawks’ new staff, who wants to push the pace. Smith is a solid QB2 who will post a handful of QB1 weeks.
Bo Nix (Denver Broncos) – Nix looks like the ideal fit in Sean Payton’s scheme. He excelled at short, accurate throws at Oregon, and that has continued through the summer. He is also an underrated runner. Nix’s ceiling is capped but he will be a quality QB2 right away.
Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers) – Dave Canales resurrected Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa. This year, Canales will get to work his margin with last year’s No. 1 pick. The Panthers also spent a ton of free-agent money and draft capital to improve their supporting cast. Expect Young to rebound from his abysmal rookie campaign to contend for top-20 fantasy numbers.
Running Backs…
WHAT OTHER LATE-ROUND PLAYERS SHOULD YOU BE TARGETING IN YOUR DRAFT?
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Early Fantasy Football ADP Values
Dynasty football drafts are well underway. That means that FullTime Fantasy‘s redraft season is right around the corner. Now is a great time to start studying some of the undervalued players to target. These early fantasy football ADP values have the potential to shoot up draft boards as the summer progresses. Using the Fantasy Pros Expert’s Consensus, I found several key contributors that I am much higher on. As more rankings are updated, undoubtedly the ECR will improve. But, until then, the early bird gets the worm. Here are some of the early fantasy football ADP values that I like in early June. Also, be sure to check out our early FFWC fantasy football fades. Dynasty Startups in the Dynasty FootbalL World Championship are filling now! For just $299 become the next Dynasty King! Over $2,250 in league prizes, a $10,000 Grand Prize, and an annual $2K Dynasty King bonus for the team with the most points over a 3-year span. Quarterbacks Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) QB4 (+3) Herbert’s TD production dropped off significantly last season. However, I think it is about to rebound in a hurry. In addition to re-signing RB Austin Ekeler, the Chargers added dynamic TCU rookie WR Quentin Johnston with the No. 21 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. But the biggest reason I love Herbet doesn’t even come on the field. It’s the addition of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. In four seasons running the Dallas offense, Moore’s Cowboys ranked 2nd in both yards and points per game. Herbert is poised to approach 5,000 passing yards and 30-plus touchdown strikes. Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) QB11 (+6) 2022 was an unmitigated disaster for the Broncos, resulting in Nathaniel Hackett’s firing after just 15 games. One of the few positives to take away from the abysmal showing was Wilson played better after Hackett got hacked. Wilson was QB5 in Week 17 and QB2 in the season finale. The Broncos receiving corps should also be healthier. Also, the group should be even better with Oklahoma rookie Marvin Mims. Not to mention, Sean Payton will be the head coach. That will be an immediate upgrade for the entire offense. Running Backs Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) RB22 (+3) During their run to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs leaned heavily on their rookie rusher. And when you look at some of the metrics, there seems to be a good chance that Isiah Pacheco is being undervalued. Pacheco ranked 10th with 4.8 true yards per carry, 16th in yards per touch, and was the No. 2 pass-blocking back in the league. Pacheco racked up double-digit PPR points in each of Kansas City’s final 11 games. Also, he was clearly better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and I predict that Pacheco will meet or exceed the 15 touches per game figure he averaged down the stretch. That extrapolates out to 253 touches for a player who was awfully efficient in one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders) RB29 (+8) The hiring of Eric Bieniemy should be huge for Gibson, who ranked 11th in target share at running back last season. Bieniemy was able to turn Jerick McKinnon into an excellent fantasy option and should have no problems engineering a role and scheme for Gibson, whose efficiency metrics outshine McKinnon’s. In addition to ranking top-12 in targets (58), receptions (46), and yards per route run (1.66), Gibson is a better runner. However, there are serious questions at QB in Washington. My early projections have Gibson commanding even more safety-valve targets in 2023. That makes him a solid PPR value in the ninth or tenth rounds of fantasy drafts. Deuce Vaughn (Dallas Cowboys) RB63 (+35) Tony Pollard didn’t need a ton of touches to post top-10 fantasy numbers. And now that Ezekiel Elliott is gone, I’m not so sure that the Cowboys will clamor to change what was already working. That makes the ancillary backs in Big D quite intriguing. Deuce Vaughn turned heads at OTAs and has been referred to as a versatile and valuable weapon by the Cowboys’ brass. Incumbent RB2 Malik Davis (RB 80 +26) also looks like a very nice value. Keep an eye on how things shape up this summer. One of these two unheralded backs could be significantly underpriced by August. Wide Receivers Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars) WR22 (+9) Kirk’s first season in Jacksonville resulted in career-best numbers across the board and a WR12 finish. Jacksonville appears poised to be heavy favorites in the AFC South, yet Kirk’s ADP has dipped. The only reason for that is people overreacting to Calvin Ridley’s reinstatement. Ridley, who has only played five games in the last two seasons, is a fine wideout. However, I don’t think his arrival will impact Kirk’s role as much as others do. 75.2% of Kirk’s routes last season came from the slot. In his last two years with the Falcons, Ridley lined up outside on 89% of his routes. I expect that usage to continue in Jacksonville. Kirk looks like a good bet to lead the Jags in targets and contend for top-20 fantasy production again. Kadarius Toney (Kansas City Chiefs) WR34 (+5) The Chiefs are among the favorites to sign DeAndre Hopkins. But, until they do, Kadarius Toney is the de facto WR1 in Kansas City. Toney has elite athletic credentials and playmaking ability. If healthy in an Andy Reid offense, Toney has massive upside. It’s important to take some shots in fantasy football. Toney is a player you will read about all summer being a sleeper and league winner. That’s why his ADP outside of WR2 range looks enticing this early. Juju Smith-Schuster (New England Patriots) WR37 (+8) 2022 was a predictable disaster for New England’s offense. Still, Jakobi Meyers was able to post WR29 numbers in PPR points per game. Meyers now resides in Vegas and Juju Smith-Schuster was signed to take over that role. Even if Smith-Schuster has fallen off after a fast start to his career, I’ll argue that he is a better NFL wideout than
2021 Fantasy Football ADP Values
Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a useful tool that powers the perceived values of players throughout the preseason draft process. Selecting players after their ADP nets positive value, while drafting players too early can really hamper roster construction. Not all ADP lists are created equally but utilizing Fulltime’s Advanced ADP gives fantasy fans the opportunity to compare normal ADP lists to that of successful high-stakes FFWC drafters. It can also show players that the pros are letting slide further in drafts, which can be an advantage in casual drafts. Here are some players that the 2021 Fulltime season-long projections favor and why they make good values. Carson Wentz (QB) Indianapolis Colts There’s no denying that Wentz was borderline awful at times last season, but there’s a really good chance that he ends up being one of the biggest rebound players of 2021. First, Wentz is now reunited with Frank Reich, who coaxed a top-3 fantasy season (fantasy points per game) out of Wentz in 2017. Secondly, a lot of Wentz’s struggles last season can be blamed on a lousy receiving corps and injury-ravaged offensive line. Indianapolis has an emerging young group of skill position players and an elite group of blockers that will give Wentz more time, keep him upright, and result in fewer turnovers. Finally, looking at our strength of schedule tool, Wentz and the Colts have a top-10 schedule for fantasy quarterbacks, which includes six games against the subpar secondaries in the AFC South and a playoff run at Arizona and versus the Raiders. Austin Ekeler (RB) Los Angeles Chargers Seemingly an anomaly among top-level NFL players, Ekeler has endeared himself to the fantasy football community and has even co-hosted a live weekly fantasy video series with Yahoo’s Liz Loza. As inspiring as that is, Ekeler might be just as good on the field. Ekeler was limited to 10 games a year ago but averaged 16.5 PPR points per contest, which ranked 13th. There are some decent auxiliary pieces behind Ekeler in LA, but it appears that he’s going to play a featured role with Justin Herbert and company, which will put Ekler into a good position to lead the team in carries and approach 100 targets in 2021. That kind of production in the passing game can’t be understated. 17 games out of Ekeler on this improving offense certainly warrants top-5 running back potential, and that makes Ekeler a tremendous value at his current ADP, which often slips into Round 2. James White (RB) New England Patriots We like White as a forgotten late-round steal earlier but the promotion of Mac Jones to New England’s starting gig means even better things for New England’s passing game. Jones has elite accuracy and won’t call his own number so much in the red zone. Look for White to reclaim his status as the Patriots’ go-to option on passing downs, where he averaged 15.3 PPR points per game from 208-2019 with a more traditional pocket passer in the lineup. White often slips out of the top-50 running backs, yet still finished as the RB42 in a “down” 2020 season with Cam Newton. That makes White an excellent bargain to target late in drafts, and the ideal depth candidate for fantasy drafters who load up on elite RBs early and look for high-volume pass-catching PPR targets to fill out their bench. Damien Williams (RB) Chicago Bears Williams showcases solid Swiss Army knife tools in Kansas City and now moves on to Chicago to act as the complimentary back to David Montgomery. Montgomery thrived last year but that was due to the absence of Tarik Cohen, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 3. Speaking of Cohen, he still has no timetable for a return, which bodes well for Williams, who is an established receiver himself. Now Williams is unlikely to get the 90 targets that Cohen averages annually in Matt Nagy’s offense, but he just might approach 150 touches, and our projections think he can top 700 scrimmage yards and score enough touchdowns to make Williams a decent bench stash. Deebo Samuel (WR) San Francisco 49ers Samuel was decimated by injuries last season, just like the rest of San Francisco’s offense, which stalled under Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. With Jimmy Garoppolo back healthy and intriguing first-round rookie Trey Lance now quarterbacking Kyle Shanahan’s offense, the 49ers look like a potential top-10 offense. Brandon Aiyuk has rightfully grabbed most of the attention as San Francisco’s top wide receiver, but Samuel is now fully healthy and poised to use his elite run-after-catch skills in creative ways. One of the reasons we’re so high on Samuel is often overlooked by the fantasy community. Samuel is an elite athlete who could potentially chip in another 250 yards and 4-5 scores rushing. The 49ers also have the league’s No. 1 easiest schedule for wide receivers, which means both Aiyuk and Samuel have potential blow-up matchups up and down the 2021 schedule. We love Deebo this season and have gladly scooped him up well before his WR38 ADP. D.J. Chark (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars If you think San Francisco’s pass-catchers had it rough last season, the Jaguars went 1-15 under such stalwarts as Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, and Jake Luton. No wonder Chark struggled declined to 706 yards and five touchdowns after his breakout sophomore campaing. Chark also battled injuries but neither of those major concerns are a factor any longer. The arrival of generational talent Trevor Lawrence should cure the club’s quarterbacking woes and the addition of Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell should get the Jags a solid start in posting above-average passing numbers right away. These days, it’s not a surprise when a rookie signal-caller throws for north of 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first season. Lawrence isn’t any rookie thrower and will also have a 17th game to accrue stats. Chark and Laviska Shenault are both candidates to top 1,000 receiving yards in 2021, and Chark’s lower
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