2025 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview
2025 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview The Chiefs won another AFC title, but the humiliating blowout loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. Andy Reid somehow got 17 wins out of a team that regressed to 17th in total offense and scored just 22.6 points per game. Kansas City’s defense, however, was exemplary. For fantasy football, the main concern is if this regression is permanent or if the Chiefs can rebound after two ‘down’ seasons for Patrick Mahomes. After posting overall QB1 numbers in 2022, Mahomes barely qualified as a QB1 in 2025. He posted his fewest passing yards (3,928) and touchdowns (26) since becoming a starter. With a promising second-year class of signal-callers, Mahomes is no longer a locked-in top-5 fantasy option. Instead, he should be viewed as a solid QB1, but no longer one for fantasy managers to go out of their way to target early on draft day. Kansas City’s backfield will be productive, but not necessarily in a predictive manner for fantasy purposes. Kareem Hunt re-signed, which indicates the committee backfield with Isiah Pacheco will continue. Additionally, the addition of Elijah Mitchell adds another player to the mix. Pacheco’s stock has plummeted, making him and Hunt mere late-round fliers. Overall, Kansas City’s receiving corps has three fantasy options worth targeting and offers some hope that the powerhouse offenses we’re accustomed to can return. The Chiefs re-signed Marquise Brown, who missed most of the 2024 campaign. Rashee Rice got off to a fast start before tearing his LCL in Week 4. Rice is expected to be fully recovered and ready to resume his role as KC’s No. 1 wideout. 2024 first-rounder Xavier Worthy produced nine touchdowns but never hit 80 receiving yards in a regular-season tilt. Rookie Jalen Royals and veteran Juju Smith-Schuster will vie for reserve roles. Gone are the days of TE Travis Kelce carrying fantasy squads to titles. Kelce, who turns 35 in October, is on a three-year slide in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and yards after catch. He should still be viewed as a fantasy TE1, but the days of dominating with Mahomes/Kelce stacks appear firmly in the past. No. 2 tight end Noah Gray has made strides in each of his four NFL seasons and could factor into Kansas City’s weekly game plan. Gray offers plenty of late-round sleeper appeal for fantasy managers with deeper rosters. Fantasy Grade: B- QB Mahomes, Patrick, KC [QB1] One down season is a coincidence, but Patrick Mahomes has now had two rather disappointing campaigns. Granted, he set the bar incredibly high, but we’re starting to wonder if this is who Mahomes is now. His yardage, touchdowns, adjusted completion rate, and yards per attempt have all declined in three consecutive years. Despite an improved supporting cast, Mahomes bottomed out in 2024, finishing as QB11. With most of the same group back, it’s now hard to see Mahomes rebounding to his previous glory days. Instead, view him for what he has been recently: a decent QB1 who lacks a path to top-5 numbers. ADVICE: Decent QB1 well behind the top tier. QB Minshew, Gardner, KC [QB2] If Patrick Mahomes misses time, Minshew will be in a prime position to throw three touchdowns and two interceptions a week. A name to keep in mind in really deep Superflex formats. RB Pacheco, Isiah, KC [RB1] Isiah Pacheco was a hot commodity last summer but had a forgettable, injury-marred season (fractured fibula, 310 rushing yards, one TD in seven games). He got 41 touches in KC’s first two games before sitting out until Week 13. Once he returned, Pacheco was clearly behind Kareem Hunt. With Hunt back in Kansas City, Andy Reid will resort to a committee backfield, with Elijah Mitchell also in play. Pacheco’s high-energy style gives him the most potential, but Hunt’s presence means fantasy managers should approach this backfield with caution. ADVICE: Has the highest ceiling in Kansas City’s backfield, but Pacheco looks like an RB4/Flex option at best. RB Hunt, Kareem, KC [RB2] Hunt took over as Kansas City’s main back after Isiah Pacheco fractured his fibula in Week 2. Andy Reid re-signed Hunt fairly early in the off-season, indicating that he will have a role with the Chiefs in 2025. Hunt has lost his burst, accounting for just 2.86 yards created per touch (51st) and ranking 41st in explosive play rate (71.4). But he did rack up 50 red-zone touches and will play valuable snaps in a high-octane Chiefs’ offense. That gives Hunt RB4/flex value. ADVICE: The Chiefs seem destined to use multiple backs, and Andy Reid likes what Hunt offers. He’s got week-to-week flex value. RB Smith, Brashard, KC [RB3] Sleeper As for the question of which KC back fantasy zealots should target, take a late-round stab on Brashard Smith. Smith’s usage in the passing game is intriguing, and he’s been seen throughout OTAs lining up in the slot. He racked up 1,659 yards and 18 scores last year and caught 108 passes in college. He also blazed a 4.39 40, making him an interesting weapon in Andy Reid’s offense. Read more about Smith in Jody Smith’s Preseason Pro. RB Mitchell, Elijah, KC [RB4] ADVICE: After three injury-marred seasons in San Francisco, where he averaged 4.7 yards per carry, Mitchell has an opportunity to carve out a valuable role in a Kansas City backfield that is decidedly unsettled. Solid late-round target in deeper leagues. WR Rice, Rashee, KC [WR1] Rashee Rice was off to a blistering start in 2024 before a knee injury ended his second season in Week 3. The good news on that front is that Rice did not tear his ACL and is already participating in OTAs. Before the injury, Rice looked like a WR1, averaging 96 receiving yards per game and scoring twice. Year Three breakouts are a popular target for fantasy managers, and Rice is shaping up to have his first 1,000-yard season. UPDATE: Rice is looking at a 4-6 game suspension THIS YEAR, which complicates his fantasy outlook.
Week 13 NFL Player Props
Week 13 NFL Player Props For the fourth consecutive week, we dropped a 3-3 record with our player props wagers. However, due to an added sprinkle on Ladd McConkey’s receiving yardage line, we managed to profit in Week 12. It
Week 13 NFL Player Props
For the fourth consecutive week, we dropped a 3-3 record with our player props wagers. However, due to an added sprinkle on Ladd McConkey’s receiving yardage line, we managed to profit in Week 12. It wasn’t technically one of the plays last week but since it was mentioned in the Justin Herbert writeup, I’m going to count it. And the plus-odds bet on Mike Evans’ receiving yardage was a nice little victory. Still, we only gained +.45 Units and are now an even +4.0 Units on the season. Despite still being in the green, it’s time for us to catch fire like the first few weeks of the campaign with Week 13 NFL Player Props!
We are due for a big week and it might come during the festive holidays. For Thanksgiving, we will discuss some Turkey Day props, as well as a few over the weekend. In Week 13, instead of providing you with my favorite six or seven props, I will list my top 10 player props.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL Player Props!
Derek Carr OVER 214.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Derek Carr’s passing yards line for Week 13 against the Rams looks attainable based on a few key metrics and trends this season. Not to mention, he helped us triple up a few weeks ago so we’re going back to the well despite the lack of weapons surrounding him.
Consistent passing volume has helped Carr as the Saints are typically playing from behind. Carr has surpassed this line in 8 of his last 10 games. This consistency underscores his role in the Saints offense, which leans heavily on his arm, especially in matchups where they face defensive vulnerabilities in the secondary. Which leads me to my next point.
The Rams have had some serious defensive struggles in 2024. The Rams have allowed over 243 passing yards per game this season, ranking among the league’s bottom-tier pass defenses. Their secondary has struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks, giving Carr an advantageous matchup.
And although Carr doesn’t have the weapons that he once started the season with, the Rams’ defense has shown a tendency to allow massive big-chunk plays, providing Carr with the opportunity to rack up yards efficiently. Not to mention, the game script should favor the veteran signal-caller eclipsing this line. The Rams’ offense can score quickly with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp, which would force the Saints to keep up. This dynamic increases Carr’s likelihood of exceeding his yardage line as the Saints try to stay competitive.
All of these factors and trends point towards Carr surpassing this line. Don’t forget that he has easily eclipsed this prop line in three consecutive games since returning from a mid-season injury. This bodes well for Carr on Sunday. Smash…
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2024 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview
2024 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview Having won 3 of the past 5 Superbowls, including going back-to-back, the Kansas City Chiefs went into the offseason with their eyes set on becoming the first NFL team to three-peat. Patrick Mahomes and
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Week 17 DFS: Tight End Report featuring Travis Kelce
Week 17 DFS: Tight End Report No tight end scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in Week 16. George Kittle (7/126) was the top player for the week, followed by Evan Engram (10/95) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (6/63/1). Here are the
No tight end scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in Week 16. George Kittle (7/126) was the top player for the week, followed by Evan Engram (10/95) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (6/63/1). Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 16 weeks:
- T.J. Hockenson (14.67)
- Travis Kelce (14.39)
- Sam LaPorta (14.00)
- George Kittle (13.15)
- Evan Engram (13.09)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 16 DFS: QB Report, RB Report, and WR Report.
Top Tier Option
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,800)
Over his last eight games, Kelce caught 42 of his 58 targets for 443 yards and one touchdown, leading to only steady fantasy production in five games (11.80, 16.40, 15.10, 12.10, and 14.30). His recent stats (5/28 and 5/44) don’t command his current salary. He has one impact game (12/179/1) and a pair of steady showings in fantasy points (22.70 and 21.40), all coming between Week 5 and Week 7. Over his past eight matchups, he averaged 7.3 targets (8.9 in 2022 and 8.4 in 2021).
Cincinnati has the second-worst defense (98/1,020/6 on 120 targets) against tight ends, with failure in four games (SF – 91/49, PIT – 12/141, JAC – 10/91/1, and IND – 8/65/1). Over the past nine weeks, tight ends have at least eight catches in six contests.
The Chiefs’ offense (77 points over their last four games) is a mess, and Patrick Mahomes gained fewer than 6.5 yards per pass attempt in six of their previous eight games. Finally, Kelce has a winnable matchup with a slight drop in salary. I want to believe, but I can force him if he doesn’t fit my Week 17 plan…
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Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report featuring Travis Kelce
Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report The Browns/Jaguars game delivered the top two tight ends for Week 14. Evan Engram (11/95/02 had the best game of his career, coming on the heels of scoring his first touchdown (9/82/1) the previous
Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report
The Browns/Jaguars game delivered the top two tight ends for Week 14. Evan Engram (11/95/02 had the best game of his career, coming on the heels of scoring his first touchdown (9/82/1) the previous week. David Njoku (6/91/2) also scored twice. The Rams decided not to cover Isaiah Likely on his 54-yard scamper for a touchdown, setting up a Mark Andrews-type day (5/83/1). Hunter Henry (19.00) and George Kittle (16.60) rounded out the top five in fantasy points. Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 14 weeks:
- Travis Kelce (15.28)
- T.J. Hockenson (15.22)
- Sam LaPorta (13.58)
- Evan Engram (13.16)
- George Kittle (13.10)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 14 DFS: QB Report, RB Report, and WR Report.
Elite Option
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,500)
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been able to get Kelce rolling over the six weeks. Over this span, he caught 32 of his 44 targets for 371 yards and one touchdown, leading to only steady fantasy production in five games (11.80, 16.40, 15.10, 12.10, and 14.30). His recent stats don’t command his current salary. Kelce has one impact game (12/179/1) and a pair of 20.00-point outcomes (22.70 and 21.40), all coming between Week 5 and Week 7. Over his past five matchups, he averaged seven targets (8.9 in 2022 and 8.4 in 2021).
New England climbed to sixth in tight end defense (56/500/1 on 82 targets). Foster Moreau is the only tight end to score vs. the defense. The Raiders (7/94) and Bills (9/85) had the most success in fantasy points. Overall, the Patriots’ opposing TEs have 696 catches for 6,848 yards and 41 touchdowns on 1,007 targets, coming to 10.63 fantasy points per game (the best tight end schedule in the league).
Kelce should reach 100 catches with more than 1,000 yards receiving again this year, giving fantasy teams an edge at the tight end position. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been as wide as in 2022 (5.93 fantasy points per game over the second-ranked tight end). His matchup looks below par, and his salary commands 30+ fantasy points to be an edge. The Chiefs need to find their offensive identity after losing three games (53 combined points) over the past four weeks. I can dismiss him due to Kelce being the top target in Kansas City’s offense with scoring upside…
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Week 14 DFS: Tight End Report featuring Travis Kelce
Week 14 DFS: Tight End Report Last year, there were three star tight ends led by the impact game by Sam LaPorta (9/140/1). Evan Engram (9/82/1) found the endzone for the first time in 2023, while Trey McBride (8/89/1) continued his impressive ride over the past six weeks. Only three other players scored more than 15.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 13 weeks: T.J. Hockenson (15.63) Travis Kelce (15.36) Sam LaPorta (14.33) George Kittle (12.81) Evan Engram (11.55) Here are the top plays this week via the Week 14 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 14 DFS: QB Report. Top Tier Option Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,000) Since his impact game (12/179/1) in Week 7, Kelce has been a losing investment in the daily games. He scored between 11.80 and 16.40 fantasy points in four of his last five starts. That included an empty showing in Week 9 (3/14) vs. the Dolphins. The Chiefs have only looked his way 25 times over his previous four games, compared to 9.7 targets per game from Week 2 and Week 8. Last year, Kelce had eight catches for 112 yards vs. the Bills. Buffalo allowed fewer than 11.00 fantasy points to tight ends in PPR formats over 10 of their 12 contests, ranking them 10th in tight end defense (54/497/3). The Patriots (6/83/1) and Bengals (10/101/2) had surprising production from their tight ends against the Bills. The only top 10 TE faced this year was Evan Engram (5/44 on 10 targets). Patrick Mahomes must get Kelce more involved if they want to make a deep playoff run in 2023. Kelce needs to score more than 30.00 fantasy points to be in play based on his salary at DraftKings. He is batting 1-for-11 this year in this area and 3-for-20 in 2022. When at his best, Kelce can score multiple touchdowns with a high floor in catches and receiving yards. Mid-Tier Options T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400) Over the past four games with Joshua Dobbs behind center, Hockenson has 27 catches for 308 yards and two touchdowns on 40 targets. That was highlighted by his impact game (11/134/1) in Week 10. He has a floor of seven catches in half of his 12 starts while scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points in two other contests (7/66/2 and 6/88/1). Hockenson has at least eight targets in three-fourths of his games. The Raiders are 13th in the league vs. tight ends (64/602/3 on 78 targets), with their weakness in coverage coming in three games (BUF – 8/53/1, DET – 9/62/1, and KC – 9/121). Tight ends scored at least 10.00 fantasy points in eight of 12 matchups. The return of Justin Jefferson helps the Vikings’ passing game and spacing for Hockenson. But it also adds more competition for targets. Minnesota averaged 33.8 passes over the last five games, compared to 40 over their first seven contests with Kirk Cousins starting. Hockenson works close to the line of scrimmage (9.8 yards per catch), requiring an 8/90/1 game to be in play. He appears to be overpriced in Week 14 despite offering a high floor (15.88 FPPG in DraftKings scoring). George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600) The 49ers threw the ball exceptionally well over their last five games (1,517/12) due to gaining 20 yards or more on 30 of their 102 completions. On the downside, San Fran has the best running back in the game while ranking last in the league in pass attempts per game (28.0). Their passing game creates only 19.6 completions per week. Kittle has been quiet in his last two starts (3/19 and 4/68) after posting more than 20.00 fantasy points in his previous three games (23.90, 20.60, and 22.90). His only other playable outcome came in Week 5 (3/67/3). The 49ers gave him more than six targets in only four matchups. The Seahawks held him to 4.90 fantasy points in Week 12. Seattle is about league average in tight end defense (63/659/2 on 84 targets), with three teams (CLE – 5/83/1, BAL – 13/122, and DAL – 7/89/1) having success. The Seahawks’ defense allowed nine touchdowns and three field goals over their last 23 possessions against the 49ers and Cowboys. Each week, one of San Francisco’s top three receiver options outside of Christian McCaffrey has a chance to come in. Kittle doesn’t have a great opportunity (5.6 targets per game) compared to the top tight ends in the game, but he has scoring ability (16 over his last 27 starts) while averaging 14.7 yards per catch. He plays in the right offense, but only a coin flip to shine if the 49ers play from the lead. Low-Value Options Cole Kmet, CHI (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,600) When comparing Kmet to George Kittle, he has six more catches and the same number of touchdowns (5). Unfortunately, he only has 482 receiving yards (253 fewer – a difference of 2.10 fantasy points per game) due to gaining only 8.6 yards per catch. His opportunity (68 targets – 67 by Kittle) is almost identical, but he has a much lower salary. Kmet has two impact games (7/85/2 and 6/55/2) and two other playable outcomes (15.20 and 17.90 fantasy points) for his price point. In Week 11, the Lions held him to three catches for 20 yards on four targets while Chicago played from the lead. He played well in his home start (4/74/2) vs. Detroit in 2022. The Lions slipped to 24th defending tight ends (58/579/6 on 85 targets) after getting beat by Tayson Hill (13/59/1 rushing with two catches for 15 yards) and New Orleans (5/49/1) in Week 13. From Week 7 to Week 12, tight ends only had 16 catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns on 28 targets. The Seahawks (9/132) and Falcons (11/88) had the most success in catches and receiving yards. Kmet doesn’t have a jump-of-the-page matchup, but he is fairly
Week 12 DFS: Tight End Report
Week 12 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, the tight end position had a down week in scoring, leading to only eight players scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Three of those tight ends (Josh Oliver – 14.70,
Last week, the tight end position had a down week in scoring, leading to only eight players scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Three of those tight ends (Josh Oliver – 14.70, Stone Smartt – 12.10, and Luke Schoonmaker – 10.30) were backup options on their teams. George Kittle (22.90) was the only difference-maker at tight end in Week 12. Travis Kelce (16.40) posted the second-best game. Here are the top five tight ends over 11 weeks ranked by scoring average:
- Travis Kelce (15.71)
- T.J. Hockenson (15.60)
- George Kittle (13.80)
- Sam LaPorta (12.52)
- Mark Andrews (12.31)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 12 DFS: QB Report.
Elite Options
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,300)
The Chiefs struggled to get Kelce the ball over the past three weeks (6/58, 3/14, 7/44/1 on 22 combined targets), putting the brakes on his rising stock from Week 5 to Week 7 (31/370/2 on 33 targets). Last year, he had 13 catches for 63 yards and four touchdowns on 15 targets in two games vs. the Raiders. Kelce has a floor of nine targets in seven of his nine starts.
Las Vegas sits 11th in tight end fantasy defense (55/481/3 on 68 targets), with no player gaining more than 70 receiver yards (Tyler Conklin – 7/70). Their higher ranking is helped by a favorable tight end schedule (DEN – 7/56, BUF – 8/53/1, PIT – 3/41/1, LAC – 2/9, GB – 8/65, NE – 5/50, CHI – 1/16, DET – 9/62/1, NYG – 3/43, NYJ – 8/76, and MIA – 1/10).
Based on his salary, Kelce should be considered an elite WR1 in the DFS market. He needs 30+ fantasy points to fill his salary bucket which requires a 7/100/2 type outcome. The decision is whether Kelce can match the top running backs and wide receivers in Week 12.
Mid-Tier Options
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Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report
Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report The top five tight ends in Week 7 were all chalk players. Travis Kelce (12/179/1) posted an impact game, leading to him opening up a 27.50 fantasy point lead in tight end scoring. Darren
The top five tight ends in Week 7 were all chalk players. Travis Kelce (12/179/1) posted an impact game, leading to him opening up a 27.50 fantasy point lead in tight end scoring. Darren Waller (7/98/1) finished second, followed by Mark Andrews (4/63/2), T.J. Hockenson (11/86), and Dallas Goedert (5/77/1). The best two outlier tight ends with uptick games last week were Taysom Hill (5/68/1) and Dalton Kincaid (8/75). Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after seven weeks based on fantasy points per game in PPR formats:
- Travis Kelce (17.79)
- T.J. Hockenson (13.86)
- Mark Andrews (13.39)
- Sam LaPorta (12.96)
- Darren Waller (79.00)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 8 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Option
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)
After a slow start to the season in yards (26, 69, 60, and 67), Kelce started to make bigger plays over the last two games (three catches of 20 yards or more, with two reaching the 40-yard mark). He scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in three consecutive games, highlighted by his production in Week 7 (12/179/1). Over the last three weeks, Kelce has 31 catches for 370 yards and two touchdowns on 33 targets (93.9% catch rate). In Week 6, he had nine catches for 124 yards on nine targets against the Broncos.
Denver ranks 28th defending tight ends (42/486/3 on 50 targets). Their biggest failures came against Washington (7/89/1), Chicago (10/111/2), and Kansas City (11/138). The Broncos’ pass defense allows 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 16 touchdowns over seven games.
Kelce has an insanely high salary, one that he reached in fantasy points once in 2023 (35.90) and twice in 2022 (33.50 and 35.50). He is the clear No. 1 receiving option for Kansas City (nine targets or more in five of six games). I can’t dismiss a pair of scores and an active role in catches and yards, but his price point requires more creative roster building with fewer outs shining at the backend of the player pool at other positions.
Mid-Tier Options
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Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report
Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past
Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past two weeks (Kyle Pitts – 7/87 and 4/43/1 ~ Jonnu Smith – 6/67 and 4/36/1), pushing them to the top 12 in tight end scoring for the season. Ten tight ends scored between 10.00 and 15.00 fantasy points.
Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after six weeks:
- Travis Kelce (88.60)
- Sam LaPorta (79.50)
- T.J. Hockenson (77.40)
- Mark Andrews (71.40)
- Cole Kmet (67.10)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 7 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Options
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,500)
Despite missing one game and playing through some injuries, Kelce regains the top-scoring seat at tight end heading into Week 7. He has a floor of nine targets on four starts while gaining momentum over his last two matchups (10/67/1 and 9/124). The Chiefs only had him on the field for 59% and 69% of their plays over this span (66.4% for the season – 79.8% in 2022). Last year, Kelce had one impact game (6/115/3) against the Chargers on the road (5/51 at home), with the same theme in 2021 (10/191/2 @ LAC – 7/104 in KC).
Los Angeles ranks 10th in tight end defense (19/187/1 on 29 targets) while facing four opponents with low-ranking options (MIA – 3/44, TEN – 4/35, LV – 1/11, and DAL – 1/15). The Chargers did have issues covering T.J. Hockenson (8/78) and the Vikings’ tight ends (10/82/1 on 13 targets) in Week 3.
Kelce hasn’t delivered a game that was three times his current salary at DraftKings in 2023 (24.20, 33.50, and 35.50 last season). The latter two outcomes are needed to fill his salary bucket in Week 7. His path isn’t far off from an 8/100/2 game, so keep an open mind about playing him in the DFS market.
Mid-Tier Options
Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,900)
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2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
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Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Patrick Mahomes
After dominating the fantasy world in his first season as a starter for Kansas City in 2018 (5,369 combined yards with 52 touchdowns), Mahomes ranked 7th (334.55 – two missed games), 4th (429.80 – 15 starts), 4th (427.25), and 1st (482.30) in fantasy scoring in four-point scoring formats. He has a 64-16 career record in the regular season, with five post-season trips (11-3 – two Super Bowl wins and a loss).
In 2021, Mahomes set career-highs in completions (436), pass attempts (658), rushing attempts (66), and rushing yards (381). His season started with success over four games (1,310 combined yards with 15 touchdowns). Other than Week 10 (406/5), he lost his luster from Week 5 to Week 14 (269 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns over nine starts). However, Mahomes did regain his stride throwing the ball in the playoffs (404/5, 378/3, and 275/3).
His high floor continued last season, leading to almost identical value in completions (435) and pass attempts (648). Mahomes set a career-high in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41), along with a high floor in the run game (61/358/4). He gained 20 yards or more on 73 pass plays, with 13 of those passes hitting the 40-yard mark.
Over his first 10 starts, Mahomes scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in six starts (38.50, 33.40, 32.15, 39.60, 35.45, and 30.75) but only once (36.10) over his final 10 matchups. He had three touchdowns or more in 11 of his 20 contests (including the postseason).
Fantasy Outlook: Mahomes is the first quarterback off the board in 2023 after his impactful year. His success relies on Travis Kelce being a beast and Kansas City developing their young wideouts. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice have plenty of talent while lacking proven resumes in the NFL. Mahomes will find a way to average 300 combined yards with a floor of 35 touchdowns.
Other Options: Blaine Gabbert, Shane Buechele, Chris Oladokun
— Running Backs —
The Chiefs’ running backs had the same number of targets (112) over the past three seasons. Their stats fell in a tight range in 2021 (90/824/3) and 2022 (89/826/12), except for touchdowns. Kansas City ran the ball better last year (351/1,617/14 – 4.6 yards per rush). Their running backs combined for 2,443 yards with 26 touches and 89 catches (28.78 FPPG).
Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco flew up draft boards last August after flashing his speed (4.37 40-yard dash) in training camp. He has an aggressive running style, but his lack of patience and vision sometimes leads to dead ends. His first instinct is to run outside while his pass protection skills need work. Pacheco will have low value in the passing game early in his career.
Kansas City added him with the 30th selection in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Over four seasons at Rutgers, he rushed for 2,442 yards on 563 carries with 18 touchdowns. He caught 47 of his 68 targets for 249 yards and one score. Pacheco gained only 4.3 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per catch.
Over the first half of his rookie season, the Chiefs gave him a minimal opportunity, leading to 210 combined yards with one touchdown and 13 catches on 47 touches. His best outcome came in Week 1 (12/62/1). Kansas City featured him on early downs (163/830/5) over their final 12 matchups with only 16 catches for 182 yards. He gained 5.1 yards per rush while averaging 12.27 fantasy points in PPR formats down the stretch. Pacheco failed to score more than 16.50 fantasy points in any game.
Fantasy Outlook: Kansas City will give him 15 touches a game this year, but he’ll have short value in the passing game in most weeks. I expect about 1,300 yards with eight to 10 touchdowns and about 30 catches. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Pacheco is the 22nd running back selected.
Jerick McKinnon
After gaining momentum in 2017 with the Vikings (991 combined yards with five touchdowns and 51 catches), injuries cost McKinnon all of the following two seasons with the 49ers. San Francisco gave him 47 touches over their first four games in 2020, leading to 295 combined yards with four touchdowns and 13 catches. They phased him out of the running back rotation in most weeks over their final 12 games (277 combined yards with two touchdowns and 20 catches).
The Chiefs only gave McKinnon 25 touches in 2021, leading to…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE CHIEFS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
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