FullTime PGA DFS Weekly – The Players Championship
Join Mark and Alex on this weeks live stream looking at The Players Championship
PGA DFS: The Players Championship
PGA DFS has created a significant following over the past few years. Which is the best thing that could have happened to the sport, next to Tiger making his all world comeback of course. This overflow of PGA DFS players has snowballed in the right direction, creating a wide variety of contests on our go to DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and even DRAFT). The players that have put in the work are sharper than ever. The content is vast and can be somewhat overwhelming. If you have ever asked yourself who do I trust? Who am I going to believe in enough to put my hard-earned money on the line for? Raise your hand. My hand is up. Now put your hand down and listen. Here at FullTime Fantasy Sports we want to take the guess work out of it for you. DFS is a sport in and of itself and if we aren’t willing to put in the research, it will hinder our long-term ROI. Majority of DFS players got into this because they love sports, some got into DFS to make money, and others got into this to TAKE money. That is where we come in at FullTime Fantasy Sports, we want to TAKE what we deserve because we don’t cut corners, we don’t glance over articles, we don’t throw in uneducated lineups. We are WINNERS. Now let’s go WIN.
Putting For Dough: The Players Championship
Tournament: THE PLAYERS Championship Course: TPC Sawgrass (Par 72, 7093 yards) Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, FL Defending Champion: Webb Simpson Corollary Courses: Bay Hill (last week) & Pete Dye designs in general Considering the time constraints that I encounter with my “Real” job and the fact that I know most of you aren’t particularly interested in how I did each week, I’ve decided to simplify my article somewhat and will try the following layout: My Rules of playing DFS (same each week but just so you understand my POV) Background on the Course/Tournament for the current week Review of who I think are the Course Horses Summary of results when I use the modeling tool I subscribe to giving you players showing best (1) Current Form (CF), (2) Course History (CH) and (3) a combination of CF/CH/Key Stats – which the Key Stats will vary each week My “Tier Analysis” – I like this because it gives each of you a list of players I like either because of the analysis or simply “my gut”. “GUT” Plays I’m hoping this makes it easier for me and still allows all of you to get the information you need to combine with my partner, Alex White’s, information. We take slightly different perspectives in our analysis but are on a lot of the same guys each week. Hopefully, this gives you validation. NOTE: No matter what the format of my article, I am ALWAYS available on Slack Chat! You can discuss your ideas/issues with everyone in the #pga-dfs channel or you can DM me on there if you have an idea you really want to keep to yourself, but need someone to bounce it off of!! I promise, I won’t tell!!! …… as long as you let me use it! LMAO! Remember the Rules of playing DFS: You will probably lose more weeks than you win. Play Single-Entry (S/E), S/E Double-Ups and 50/50s as a hedge against the GPPs you want/like to play. If you play GPPs, look for Single-Entry contests first. After that, play the ones that allow five (5) entries or less. The only exception I have to my rule is that I play the $1 WTA each week that allows 20 entries. I don’t always play the maximum but I use it to help me set the 10-20 lineups I like to set each week. I am NOT a Mega-Multi Entry player! In PGA-DFS, DO NOT get overly excited by your position after Round 1 (Thursday). REMEMBER, Full disclosure, I’m not a guy that’s big on the statistics, although given Al’s success the last few weeks, I’m becoming more receptive. I’m someone that likes: Current Form (CF) Course History (CH) My Gut Course Background We are moving to what is being called the “5th Major” at the TPC-Sawgrass. The pricing on DK this week is a lot softer than normal in my opinion. Over the years that I have played PGA DFS, this isn’t uncommon. When you get to “Majors”, the DFS companies tend to make it easier for those “fair-weather” players to have an opportunity to make a “stud” lineup with names they know. THE $7000-$9000 range is STACKED!!! The Players is an important tournament as indicated by its name. “The Players” view this as “their” Championship and not one particularly tied to a country or organization (PGA Championship). Even The Masters is a form of “organization” and its similarity with The Players is that it’s always on the same course. Greens: Bermuda & Small (in Tour terms) Rough: Bermuda Water: Plentiful NOTE: We will be looking at historical statistics this week along with a player’s CF, but we must remember that the last time this tournament was played in March was 2006. The rough should not be as bad given that it hasn’t had the opportunity to grow out. Wind is more likely so we may need to look at Stacking Tee Times. The course will also not be as firm, but as we will discuss a little later, placement is more important that Bombing off the tee. Set Up for this Week: Despite the difficulties noted above, the course does allow for under par winners as the last three years winning scores have been -18 (Webb Simpson), -10 (Si Woo Kim), and -15 (Jason Day). From 2018 back to 2016 the Cut Line has been Even, +2, and -2 respectively. So, we can expect some scoring which, in turn, equals DFS points! Although I don’t typically pay much attention to tee times, for those of you that like to play PGA-DFS and gain a possible advantage, check the weather. If a player has a morning tee time on Thursday, they have an afternoon tee time on Friday. So, in short, tee times are AM-PM or PM-AM. So, if winds or other weather is predicted to happen at opposite times of the day (i.e. not in the morning both days or in the afternoon both days), you can “stack” tee times. You can find the tee times on www.pgatour.com THIS COURSE DOES NOT FAVOR THE BOMBER! “Less than Driver” players can and do excel at TPC-Sawgrass (or any other Pete Dye course). The key at Sawgrass is putting yourself in position in the fairway so that you have the approach shot you want – even if it’s with a longer than normal club for holes of similar distance on other courses. COURSE HORSES Francesco Molinari MC-6th-7th-DNP Plus a win last week on a corollary course (Bay Hill), “Moli” is sure to be popular this week. Adam Scott 11th-6th-12th-38th Adam Scott usually does the exact opposite of what I think, but with this history, I can’t avoid him – so, play him at your own risk! LMAO!! Rory McIlroy MC-35th-12th-8th 6th and 8th in the two years prior to the last 4. Last year’s MC was his first here since 2012. Justin Thomas 11th-MDF-3rd-24th Has never missed a Cut, just failed to make it to Sunday in 2017.
Players Championship PGA DFS – FanDuel Breakdown
FanDuel recently updated their PGA DFS offering, so players are trying to figure out the new format and optimize their lineups accordingly. Basically, they’ve taken away their eight-man rosters, and made their PGA product very similar to DraftKings’ product. The main difference is that you’ll have to adjust to the scoring system and new pricing. FanDuel Golf Scoring System: Eagle = 7 points Birdie = 3.1 points Par = 0.5 point Bogey = -1 point Double bogey (or worse) = -3 points Streak bonus = 0.6 points per hole under par Bounce back (birdie or better after making bogey or worse) = 0.3 points 5+ Birdies in a round = 4 points Bogey-free round = 5 points. 1st place = 20 points 2nd-5th place = 12 points 6th-10th place = 8 points 11th-25th place = 5 points Tournament Stop TPC Sawgrass is a tricky Pete Dye design, so we can look to comparable courses such as Harbour Town for an idea of what type of player might perform well. The course is a typical par-72 layout with four par 5s, but it doesn’t really favor the bombers. Several par 5s will be reachable for most of the field, but the difficulties of the par 3s and par 4s will mitigate the length advantage of the bombers. Like most Pete Dye designs, the players will be navigating tricky doglegs, mounding, bunkers and water hazards, and will be forced to hit less then driver off many tees. Once in position, the players will hit approaches to very small greens (again, similar to Harbour Town), so proximity and scrambling should play major roles in targeting certain players this week. Experience is key. With the exception of journeymen winners like Craig Perks and Stephen “9&8” Ames, past winners here have had at least 5 years of experience playing the event. Each of the last eleven winners at TPC Sawgrass has recorded at least one top-25 finish. You don’t need to strictly avoid first timers here, but like we talked about at The Masters, experience does play a pivotal role. Recent Tournament History Here are the leaderboards from the past three installments of the Players Championship: Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the RBC Heritage, the Valero Texas Open, and last week’s Wells Fargo Championship: Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): TPC Sawgrass is a course that challenges every player, but I do believe that approach play is the most important element. There are water hazards, bunkers, and native areas that players have to avoid, and many tricky approach shots into small greens. Pete Dye courses always place an emphasis on elite ball-striking. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Henrik Stenson, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Hadwin, Scott Piercy, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Stewart Cink, Keegan Bradley, and Ian Poulter. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are so difficult at TPC Sawgrass, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Jamie Lovemark, Adam Hadwin, Tiger Woods, Jonas Blixt, Tommy Fleetwood, Jimmy Walker, and Wesley Bryan. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Chappell, Trey Mullinax, and Tommy Fleetwood. Strokes Gained on Par-4s (SG:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained on par-4s. TPC Sawgrass has difficult holes throughout, but the par-4s will set the winner aside from the rest of the field. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Kyle Stanley, Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Nick Watney, Luke List, Kevin Streelman, Trey Mullinax, Patrick Reed, Byeong Hun An, and Marc Leishman. Studs *In order of my rankings Rory McIlroy ($12,000) – Rory seems to have figured this place out, after missing his first three cuts. Since 2013, he’s made all five cuts here with three top-10 finishes. Recent form is strong as well, with a win at Bay Hill, a 5th at the Masters, and another solid T-16 at Quail Hollow. His irons and short game have let him down this season, but I’ve been very encouraged by what I’ve seen over the past few events. He’s the co-favorite with Jason Day, in my mind. Jason Day ($12,100) – What a stunning performance by Day at Quail Hollow, picking up his second win of the season. He dominated with scrambling, hiding some of the glaring issues we’ve seen with his iron play. In any event, Day is capable of turning that around any week, and he’s returning to TPC Sawgrass where he’s a past champion. Day is a streaky player who rides confidence, and we’ve seen him go on incredible runs of golf in his career. Rickie Fowler ($11,500) – Rickie, the perennial bridesmaid, was up to his old tricks again at Quail Hollow. He got within one shot of the lead on Saturday, before four-putting for double bogey on the 17th hole. He then posted an ugly 73 on Sunday to fall outside the top-20. The thing about Fowler is he tends to play the same courses well year-in and year-out. He’s a past champion here at TPC Sawgrass, with another runner-up finish. However, he’s also missed the cut five times. Good luck figuring this one out! Henrik Stenson ($11,600) – Stenson is
Players Championship PGA DFS – DraftKings Breakdown
Daily and weekly fantasy sports have become all the rage. Battling it out over an entire season is fun, but sites like DraftKings offer a quicker payoff and big payouts for winners! Not only do they offer daily action in the four major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) as well as college basketball and football but also the PGA Tour. Your DraftKings lineup is made up of six golfers you select from within the $50,000 salary cap. Each week DraftKings offers a wide selection of games to enter at a variety of price points. You can even get a feel for the game in a freeroll contest. Before you put your cash on the line, I’ll offer my Top Values and Steals in this space every week, specifically geared to help build a winning DraftKings squad. I’ll also give you my Overpriced golfers to avoid and a couple of “Vegas Says…” tips to help you find those players for GPPs. Tournament Stop TPC Sawgrass is a tricky Pete Dye design, so we can look to comparable courses such as Harbour Town for an idea of what type of player might perform well. The course is a typical par-72 layout with four par 5s, but it doesn’t really favor the bombers. Several par 5s will be reachable for most of the field, but the difficulties of the par 3s and par 4s will mitigate the length advantage of the bombers. Like most Pete Dye designs, the players will be navigating tricky doglegs, mounding, bunkers and water hazards, and will be forced to hit less then driver off many tees. Once in position, the players will hit approaches to very small greens (again, similar to Harbour Town), so proximity and scrambling should play major roles in targeting certain players this week. Experience is key. With the exception of journeymen winners like Craig Perks and Stephen “9&8” Ames, past winners here have had at least 5 years of experience playing the event. Each of the last eleven winners at TPC Sawgrass has recorded at least one top-25 finish. You don’t need to strictly avoid first timers here, but like we talked about at The Masters, experience does play a pivotal role. Recent Tournament History Here are the leaderboards from the past three installments of the Players Championship: Current Form Review Each week, we’ll look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA Tour. Here are the leaderboards from the past three stroke-play events: the RBC Heritage, the Valero Texas Open, and last week’s Wells Fargo Championship: Statistical Report Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): TPC Sawgrass is a course that challenges every player, but I do believe that approach play is the most important element. There are water hazards, bunkers, and native areas that players have to avoid, and many tricky approach shots into small greens. Pete Dye courses always place an emphasis on elite ball-striking. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Henrik Stenson, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Hadwin, Scott Piercy, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Stewart Cink, Keegan Bradley, and Ian Poulter. Strokes Gained Around-the-Green (SG:ARG): Because the green complexes are so difficult at TPC Sawgrass, I’m adding extra emphasis on the short game. I want elite scramblers who can save pars when they miss approach shots. The best around-the-green players in recent weeks are Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Jamie Lovemark, Adam Hadwin, Tiger Woods, Jonas Blixt, Tommy Fleetwood, Jimmy Walker, and Wesley Bryan. Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage, because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This is a difficult course, but much of the fantasy scoring will come from birdies and occasional eagles. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Chappell, Trey Mullinax, and Tommy Fleetwood. Strokes Gained on Par-4s (SG:P4): Par-4 scoring is always important, but I’m adding even more emphasis this week with strokes gained on par-4s. TPC Sawgrass has difficult holes throughout, but the par-4s will set the winner aside from the rest of the field. Some of the leaders in terms of strokes gained on par-4s over the last ten events are Kyle Stanley, Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Nick Watney, Luke List, Kevin Streelman, Trey Mullinax, Patrick Reed, Byeong Hun An, and Marc Leishman. Studs *In order of my rankings Rory McIlroy ($11,600) – Rory seems to have figured this place out, after missing his first three cuts. Since 2013, he’s made all five cuts here with three top-10 finishes. Recent form is strong as well, with a win at Bay Hill, a 5th at the Masters, and another solid T-16 at Quail Hollow. His irons and short game have let him down this season, but I’ve been very encouraged by what I’ve seen over the past few events. He’s the co-favorite with Jason Day, in my mind. Jason Day ($11,400) – What a stunning performance by Day at Quail Hollow, picking up his second win of the season. He dominated with scrambling, hiding some of the glaring issues we’ve seen with his iron play. In any event, Day is capable of turning that around any week, and he’s returning to TPC Sawgrass where he’s a past champion. Day is a streaky player who rides confidence, and we’ve seen him go on incredible runs of golf in his career. Rickie Fowler ($9,600) – Rickie, the perennial bridesmaid, was up to his old tricks again at Quail Hollow. He got within one shot of the lead on Saturday, before four-putting for double bogey on the 17th hole. He then posted an ugly 73 on Sunday to fall outside the top-20. The thing about Fowler is he tends to play the same courses well year-in and year-out. He’s a past champion here at TPC Sawgrass, with another runner-up finish. However, he’s also