Week 3 NFL Player Props
Week 3 NFL Player Props Week 2 is in the books and Week 3 is underway as the New York Jets look to extend their winning streak against AFC East rival, the New England Patriots, in primetime on Thursday Night
Week 3 NFL Player Props
Week 2 is in the books and Week 3 is underway as the New York Jets look to extend their winning streak against AFC East rival, the New England Patriots, in primetime on Thursday Night Football. Last week, we weren’t as profitable as in Week 1. But we still came away in the green due to our multiple units on Joe Burrow. After a 6-1 Week 1 record, we went 3-3 in Week 2 but gained 1.45 Units. We are now 9-4 (+6.3 Units) on the young season. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum heading into Week 3 of the NFL season!
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 3 NFL prop bets!
Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown (-165)
Breece has scored a touchdown in each of his first two contests of the young season and although he’s facing a stingy New England Patriots run defense, the offense will continue to run through Hall. Yes, Braelon Allen found the end zone twice last week but Hall has seen 21 touches in each of his first matchups of the season, and we all know that volume is king.
Hall faced New England twice in his rookie campaign. The first time, he was held in check with just 18 scoreless rushing yards and a lone reception for nine yards. But that was just his third game as an NFL pro. Later in the season when the Jets faced the Patriots for a second time, Hall shredded the defense. The stud running back tallied 178 rushing yards on 37 carries and found the end zone. Additionally, he caught two passes for 12 yards.
Aaron Rodgers has been using Hall substantially in the short passing game so Hall has a chance to find the end zone not just as a rusher but also as a receiver. Last week, he hauled in a 26-yard touchdown reception where he looked more like a receiver than a running back. The kid has serious skills and great hands. Given that the Jets are heavy favorites in their first home game of the season, I like Hall’s chances of punching it into the end zone. The value could be better but I expect Hall to…
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Week 2 NFL Player Props: CeeDee Lamb, Brian Robinson Lead The Way!
Week 2 NFL Player Props Week 1 is in the books and if you read this column, you had a very profitable week! Last week, our picks absolutely crushed with a 6-1 record! And with multiple units on Brian Robinson Jr., we are up 4.85 Units to begin the 2023 NFL season. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with our Week 2 NFL Player Props. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 2 NFL Player Props! Joe Burrow OVER 231.5 Passing Yards (-110) It appears everyone is jumping off the Joey B train and even with Tee Higgins looking questionable to suit up, I still think Burrow is poised for a bounceback effort against Cincinnati’s rivals, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 1, Burrow struggled against the New England Patriots, completing a solid 21 of 29 passes but for a measly 164 passing yards and 0 touchdowns. That didn’t cut it against New England and that definitely won’t cut it against the defending champs. With another week of practice with Ja’Marr Chase after his “hold in” and more reps with rookie Andreis Iosivas and Jermaine Burton, expect Burrow to get back on track and show us a different Bengals team in Week 2. Including the postseason, Joey B is 3-1 against the Chiefs over his career. And in his two regular season games against Kansas City, Burrow is averaging a whopping 366 passing yards per game with a monumental 78.6 completion percentage and a perfect six-touchdown-to-zero-interception ratio. If there was any matchup I thought would help Burrow get out of his rut, it’s this one against a team that seems to bring out the best in him. Look for the Burrow-Chase connection to be very strong in Week 2. Perhaps something similar to the Lamar Jackson-Isaiah Likely connection the Chiefs struggled to contain in their season-opening victory. This line is simply way too low so smash the over with multiple units. Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115) I’ve been very high on B-Rob the past year and he cashed in last week in Washington’s debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Although he was mostly bottled up, he still surpassed his rushing yards line and managed to punch in a touchdown. This week, the young stud faces a New York Giants run defense that was dominated by Minnesota’s Aaron Jones in Week 1 to the tune of 94 yards on just 14 carries. In three of four games against the Giants in his career, Robinson has eclipsed this line, averaging 14.5 carries for 70.3 rushing yards per game. New York surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL last season and Week 1 did not indicate that they made enough improvements in that aspect of the game to change that trend based on Aaron Jones’ success running in the trenches. Whether or not the Commanders jump out to a big lead or not (though I think they will), game flow should favor Robinson. The Commanders will continue to rely heavily on the rushing game even after Jayden Daniels’ impressive debut. Robinson should continue to see a big workload despite Austin Ekeler’s presence and Daniels’ propensity to run. B-Rob will continue to be a Giants killer. Smash the Over. Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (+115) A running back who dominated 100% of the team’s carries in Week 1 at even money or better? That’s a jackpot, especially on a squad projected to score 21.5 points. JT was the undisputed workhorse in Week 1, handling all 16 running back carries, turning them into 48 yards, and punching in a touchdown from the 5-yard line. Sure, Anthony Richardson may vulture some goal-line glory, but Shane Steichen knows he’s got to protect his rookie QB from unnecessary hits this season if the Colts have any shot at winning this competitive division, especially after seeing what happened to Tua Tagovailoa on Thursday Night Football. The stars are aligning for Taylor in this looming matchup against a Packers defense fresh off a trip to Brazil, where they got gashed for 144 rushing yards and surrendered two rushing scores. Whether this game turns into a nail-biter or the Packers’ Malik Willis stumbles and the Colts grab the lead, both scenarios scream: run the ball with Taylor! I’m expecting a ton of volume and a breakout performance from the former Wisconsin man in Week 2. And here’s the kicker—when guys like Saquon Barkley have odds as short as -210 for a TD, getting Taylor at +115 feels like highway robbery. If Taylor finds the end zone again this week, expect those odds to shrink fast. Get in while the getting’s good! Stefon Diggs UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110) After Diggs’ modest six-catch, 33-yard performance (though he did score two touchdowns), the sportsbooks are starting to adjust. But not quite enough! Diggs is still a crucial piece of the Texans’ offense. He’s great at working the short and intermediate routes, and he’s become their go-to guy near the goal line. He’s perfectly fine stacking up those short catches like coins in a piggy bank. However, his longest grab in Week 1 was just 10 yards. To put that in perspective, the Bears managed to keep Will Levis’ longest completion to 15 yards, and even Calvin Ridley— the Titans’ top receiver—was held to 50 yards. And Diggs simply isn’t the deep-ball threat that he was in Buffalo or Minnesota. But let’s be real, C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense are a much scarier beast, with two other top-notch receiving options and a strong run game to boot. If Diggs stays heavily involved, I’m expecting a similar performance as Week 1 in which he’ll manage to catch five or six balls for 40 or 50 yards. Keep an eye on those shorter routes and goal-line targets—he’ll be busy! Just not
Vegas Insider’s Top-3 Player Props
Vegas Insider’s Top-3 Player Props Last week, Matt Brandon’s Week 1 NFL Player Props went 6-1! For Week 2, our Vegas Insider @RespectedMoney presents his top-3 player props to target. With the opening week of the 2024 NFL season now in the books, let’s take a look at three “Respected Money” player proposition wagers for Week 2! RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Isiah Pacheco was a major factor in Kansas City’s season-opening win over Baltimore, setting the tone on the ground. The hard-nosed rusher, who finished Week 1 as the overall RB20 in PPR (15.8 points), appears ready to deliver on the expectation he will be a top RB1 in 2024. Pacheco will face a Bengals rush defense that heads into Arrowhead fresh off allowing 170 yards and a touchdown to the Patriots. Expect a heavy dose of Pacheco against a Cincinnati team he torched in Week 17 last season when he rushed for 130 yards and added seven catches for 35 yards and a touchdown WR Mike Evans ANYTIME TD (+130) Fans just watched the Rams light up the Lions’ pass defense, which yielded the most receptions (34) and the second-most passing yards (317) in Week 1, along with a touchdown. It will not get much easier for Detroit’s secondary, as Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers head to Ford Field. Evans, who finished as the overall WR6 (23.1 PPR points) in Week 1, continues to be one of the most underappreciated wideouts in fantasy football. This projects as a high-scoring affair between two teams that ranked in the top 10 in total yards of offense in Week 1. Last year in the NFC Divisional round of the Playoffs Evans grabbed eight of 12 targets for 147 yards and a TD. After scoring twice in Week 1, the dependable veteran has now scored in 12 of his last 18 regular season games. RB Joe Mixon OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Mixon finished as the overall RB2 in PPR (26.8 points) after rushing for a league-high 159 yards and a touchdown in his Texans’ debut. Opposing defenses are not able to stack the box against Houston this season due to the club’s feared passing attack, and Mixon is the beneficiary. The Bears struggled to stop the run in Week 1, allowing 140 rushing yards (5.4 yards per rush) and a TD to the Titans. Mixon draws a Chicago defense that could struggle yet again and make him another week-winning player. ENTER OUR WEEK 2 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: First, draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Second, try to stack the team with players you think will do well this week. Finally, the highest Week 2 Score wins. (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 2 Player Rankings to help. First, it’s a best-ball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one. Second, you just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard. Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize at the end of the season! Finally, The Grand Prize Winner (highest individual week of the season) gets to choose from the amazing prizes below. If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! MEMBER PERK! Fulltime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Drafts each month in our contest! DRAFT YOUR WEEKLY TEAM and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Week 1 NFL Player Props: Malik Nabers Leads the Way
Week 1 NFL Player Props Week 1 is officially underway and it’s that time of week to start pinpointing the best prop bets to exploit heading into Sunday’s slate of action. Last season, this column resulted in +12.6 Units so let’s have another profitable season. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 1 NFL Player Props to target! Jared Goff OVER 265.5 Passing Yards (-114) Goff topped this line in each of his previous five games of the 2023 season, including in the Wild Card Round against these very same Los Angeles Rams in which he tallied 277 passing yards. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, a healthy Jameson Williams, Sam Laporta, and even Kalif Raymond, the sky is the limit for these Lions. Especially with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield. Goff finished the 2023 campaign second in passing yards (4,575) and his home/away splits are eye-popping. He completed over 70% of his pass attempts with a 19:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 107.9 QBR at home. On the road, it was a different story as the signal caller completed just 64.8% of his throws with an 11:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 89.5 QBR. Against the Rams, the Lions will surely run the ball but given the weapons at Goff’s disposal, I think he’ll clear this line easily on his home turf. Expect at least one deep connection to Jameson Williams while St. Brown and Laporta will be peppered with targets. Smash the Over. Jordan Love OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-110) WIN After his breakout season, Jordan Love is set to kick off this campaign against an Eagles team getting a ton of buzz for upgrading its secondary. However, that secondary was the league’s second-worst pass defense in 2023. And although the Eagles snagged two corners with their first two picks, I’m not so sure that they’ll be able to stick with Green Bay’s electric playmakers on the outside in Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and even Luke Musgrave. If the Packers want to remain competitive in their season opener, the secondary is the area of the field that Love will need to exploit. Philly also swapped out Hassan Reddick for Michael Huff, but their front seven remains largely the same — a group that finished 10th in rushing defense last season. So, the ground game might be tough sledding, which means Love and his receivers will have the best shot moving the ball through the air. Love was a machine late last season, averaging 271 passing yards over his final nine regular season games, throwing for 255+ yards in seven of them. And while RB Josh Jacobs will get his touches, don’t be surprised if some of those handoffs turn into screen passes or dump-offs to keep the Eagles’ fierce front seven on their heels — boosting Love’s yardage even more. Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115) WIN Here’s a line that stands out — and not in a good way! It’s set way too low for a clear RB1 like Brian Robinson Jr. Let me break it down: Robinson is the main guy for the Commanders, handling the bulk of the carries. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler, as talented as he is, plays more of a third-down role, meaning he’s not going to be pounding the rock a ton. Now, even if Robinson isn’t super efficient — let’s say he averages just 3.0 yards per carry — with the kind of volume he’s likely to get (around 13 carries), he’ll still end up pushing past 40 yards. So don’t let a low line fool you! I’ll be wagering multiple units on this one. James Conner OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) WIN Get ready for a wild ride because I’m all in on the Cardinals surprising everyone this season! This bet is all about believing in them to rise above expectations. The Cardinals are 6.5-point underdogs heading into Buffalo, and if the Bills completely steamroll them, sure, this might not hit. But I think the Cardinals can hang tough! Last season, James Conner cleared 12.5 rush attempts in 9 of his 13 games. And the only times he didn’t? Those were brutal losses by 19, 14, 23, and 11 points. As long as Arizona doesn’t get blown out, Conner will be fed the ball. Rookie Trey Benson? He’s probably only getting a couple of carries, leaving Conner as the workhorse. So, unless this game turns into a total rout, expect Conner to smash that 12.5-rush-attempt mark! Blake Corum UNDER 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) Do we truly think Sean McVay is going to cut back Kyren Williams‘s workload that much? Perhaps later in the season but seven carries for a backup running back still seems like a lot. Especially given that the Lions are favored, the Rams may have to throw the ball late to complete a comeback. This game’s got the highest total of the week at 50.5, so we’re probably in for an exciting, pass-heavy shootout. With all that action, it’s hard to imagine Blake Corum — in his first game — squeezing in seven rush attempts. It’s going to be all about the air show in this one! Nico Collins OVER 65.6 Receiving Yards (-120) WIN Get ready for a big game from Collins! That standout receiver was the third-best in 2023 according to PFF. Sure, Stefon Diggs might take a chunk of the targets, but you can’t overlook what Collins did against Indy last season. He torched them, clearing 100 yards in both matchups, including a jaw-dropping 195-yard performance in Week 18! And it’s not just the Colts. Collins hit this yardage mark in eight games last season when he played over 60% of snaps. And the Colts’ defense hasn’t exactly leveled up. PFF ranked them 21st in coverage. Additionally, two of their worst games were against Houston. Now,
Super Bowl LVIII Betting Props
There’s no denying that Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest sports day of the year for pigskin fans. It’s also the biggest sports betting event of the year. One report indicated that over $23.1 billion would be bet on Super Bowl LVIII. Whether you are just a casual fan looking to buy a square or heavily into winning plays, our FullTime Fantasy‘s Super Bowl LVIII Betting Props has you covered. Speaking of fun for all, check out the FREE FullTime Fantasy Super Bowl LVIII Squares. These are some of my favorite plays from around the web for both the casual fan and serious sports bettor. Game Props Game props can be enjoyed by anyone because they don’t require a lot of previous football knowledge. Here are some of the Super Bowl LVIII betting props I like. Coin Toss- Tails Tails has hit in seven of the last 10 Super Bowls. It also hit in Super Bowl LVI when these two teams previously met. National Anthem UNDER 90.5 seconds Reb McEntire is an old-school country singer who seems unlikely to dramatically elongate notes for showmanship. First Quarter OVER 7.5 Points Normally I like targeting UNDERS in the first quarter. However, this line seems awfully low for two teams that ranked 3rd and 15th in scoring, respectively. All we need is an opening drive TD from Kansas City and any other score gets us there. Player Props If you followed our own Matt Brandon’s weekly Player Props, you did quite well this season. I asked Matt what lines he’s targeting for Sunday and a couple of player props stood out to him. Rashee Rice OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards The 49ers were slightly below average against wideouts this season. San Francisco allowed an opposing wide receiver to eclipse 60 receiving yards five times in their final six regular-season games. Additionally, the Packers and Lions had a WR top that figure in the postseason. Finally, our RDA* projections have Rice right at that 66 mark. Brock Purdy OVER 246.5 Passing Yards Kansas City has been formidable against the pass. However, Purdy had topped 250 passing yards in eight of his last 11 contests. With healthy total of 47.5 points, there should be plenty of back-and-forth scoring in this game. Finally, here are some of the player props that I like. Isiah Pacheco OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Field Goals Patrick Mahomes OVER 4.5 Rushing Attempts Travis Kelce ANYTIME TD +100 Brock Purdy OVER .5 Interceptions Christian McCaffrey UNDER 18.5 Rushing Attempts Sign Up Before the “Big Game” & Double Your Bet Instantly With Edge Boost Offer is up for a limited time only! Special Offer For The FullTime Community: Users who sign up within the next 72 hours will start at $500 in advance limit from EDGE Boost (as opposed to $50). Click on this link Click “Sign Up Today” & Double Your Bet Instantly! What is EDGE Boost? EDGE Boost is the first Bet Now Pay Later (powered by VISA) provider that enables you to take out a responsible, no-interest advance that you can use to bet on games of your choice at any sportsbook, DFS site, or the FFWC! You are then given four weekly installment payments to repay your advance, and if your wager hits, you double your winnings with no fees. Think of it like Affirm, AfterPay, and other Buy Now Pay Later providers. They want you to win because EDGE makes their money from the VISA fees paid by the sportsbooks. Imagine this: you’re working hard and the paycheck hits just in time for a mini victory dance. But wait, the big leagues – like that playoff FFWC contest or that winning wager on DraftKings – they’re calling your name, and your wallet’s just not in sync. Enter EDGE Boost, your ultimate sidekick! They’ve got your back, matching your deposits akin to those incredible sign-up bonuses from sportsbooks. The best part? It’s a recurring thrill! Keep using it, over and over – it’s like having a superhero’s power at your fingertips. Didn’t hit the jackpot this time? No sweat! You’ve got a generous month to pay them back, no interest, no worries. But hey, when luck’s on your side and that bet strikes gold, imagine this: you’ve got the means to reinvest and double down with PlayFFWC! It’s like being on a perpetual winning streak. And here’s the kicker: the more you prove yourself as a reliable user, paying back your advances like clockwork, EDGE Boost unlocks new levels for you, allowing higher advances up to a whopping $2,500! Now that’s what I call leveling up in style! So, gear up, get consistent, and watch your wagering adventures soar to new heights!
Week 18 NFL Player Props
Week 18 NFL Player Props After a three-week winning streak, we finally failed to produce a profitable week in Week 17, finishing 3-4 (-1.2 Units). Fortunately, we are still 51-39 (+12.6 Units) on the 2023 NFL campaign with just one final week to go before the postseason! The FullTime Fantasy Week 18 NFL Player Props looks to conclude the regular season with another winning week. As always, I will list my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 18’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action and the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will close out the week on Sunday night at Hard Rock Stadium. Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. Finally, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 18 NFL player props, and continue our profitable NFL season. 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Subsequently, Tony Pollard will attempt to bleed as much of the clock as possible and if Dallas has a three-possession lead late in the second half, it would be wise for the Cowboys to bench Prescott to keep him healthy for their postseason run. Although Prescott is capable of smashing this number every single week, particularly with the meteoric rise of CeeDee Lamb, I expect the Cowboys to have such a comfortable lead that Prescott won’t even finish the game. Take the Under. Justin Fields OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-120) The Bears may not have a shot at the postseason but don’t think that Justin Fields has nothing to play for as his career with Chicago’s franchise is potentially on the line. This could be his last opportunity to showcase his talent as the Bears could decide to replace Fields in the 2024 NFL Draft. Fields didn’t need any extra motivation against a division rival such as the Packers but now he has it. Back in the first week of the season, Fields surpassed this line during these teams’ first meeting. And since returning from injury, he’s averaged 65.6 rushing yards per game over the past six games. He only managed to average 39.5 rushing yards per game over his first six games. Considering he’s the team’s best rusher, it’s no surprise that the Bears are letting him run with the rock more. The kid is electric and explosive. Finally, Fields can play spoiler and knock the Packers out of the NFL Playoffs. I expect him to ball out in this one and think he will easily surpass this line given Chicago’s options in the backfield. Take the Over. Bijan Robinson OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Robinson has had no problem clearing this number in each of his previous two outings and despite a matchup with a very tough New Orleans Saints defense, I anticipate the Falcons to lean on their star running back when their season is on the line this week. Although the Falcons coaching staff often leaves me scratching my head, I think they know that their best chances at winning are by getting the ball in the electric rookie’s hands. In Week 16, Bijan produced 72 rushing yards and last week against the Bears, he tallied 75 yards on the ground. Perhaps more importantly, B-Rob motored for 91 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in his previous and only meeting with the Saints. New Orleans has a very stout front seven but I think Robinson gets it done with this low line. Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Contract incentives can sometimes play a role in finding valuable player props. Interestingly enough, Gibbs needs 85 rushing yards to reach the 1,000 mark while teammate David Montgomery needs 25 more rushing yards. They could become just the eighth duo of teammates to each 1,000 rushing yards in a season. Of course, 85 rushing yards is a lot so that might not happen but I am betting on Gibbs’ motivation to at least get close to that number. The rookie has had a great campaign and has been one of the most explosive backs in the entire NFL since Halloween. During that nine-game span, Gibbs is averaging 74.2 rushing yards per game. And this week, he faces a Minnesota Vikings defense that was dominated by Aaron Jones and Green Bay’s offensive line last week. Jones finished with 120 yards. Over the past three weeks, Green Bay has surrendered 133.3 rushing yards per game. While Montgomery might get some of the short-yardage opportunities, I think Dan Campbell has figured out that Gibbs is the more talented playmaker and Gibbs should see 15+ touches on Sunday. Also, he tends to rip off big runs so I expect no different against a Vikings team that has nothing left to play for. Justin Jefferson OVER 87.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Jefferson hasn’t had the season he was hoping for; between an injury to his star quarterback
Week 17 NFL Player Props
Week 17 NFL Player Props Another profitable betting week is in the books here at FullTime Fantasy. After going 5-2 in Week 16, we are now 48-35 (+13.8 Units) with just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season.
Another profitable betting week is in the books here at FullTime Fantasy. After going 5-2 in Week 16, we are now 48-35 (+13.8 Units) with just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. After a midseason lull, we are once again on a roll with three consecutive weeks of profit. Our Week 17 NFL Player Props aims to keep the winning ways going.
As always, I will list my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 17’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action with a pivotal matchup between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys on Saturday and no Monday night game this week. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will close out the week on Sunday night at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 17 NFL Player Props and continue our profitable NFL season.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
After producing just 14 points against the Raiders in Week 16, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be very motivated when they take on a Cincinnati Bengals franchise that has had their number in previous regular season matchups. And despite Kansas City’s struggles on offense last week, the one silver lining was that Mahomes was able to find a lot of running space. The signal caller registered a season-high 10 rushing attempts and tallied 53 yards in the Chiefs’ Christmas Day loss. Nine of those rushing attempts were on quarterback scrambles when Mahomes was under duress from Maxx Crosby and Malcom Kounce.
This week, the Chiefs’ atrocious offensive line will have to block Trey Hendrickson. With Isiah Pacheco likely sidelined, I’m anticipating Mahomes using his legs yet again out of necessity as the Bengals look to bring pressure. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs face a Bengals defense that plays man-to-man coverage at a Top-10 rate. With the defensive backs zoning in on the receivers, there will be fewer eyes on Mahomes if he looks to take off from the pocket. The Bengals have surrendered a lot of yardage to mobile quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy averaged 50+ rushing yards per game against the Bengals this season.
Mahomes ranks sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards this season and has topped this line 10 times this season already. Given the struggles of the offensive line and Cincinnati’s defensive scheme, this looks like a solid wager. Take the Over.
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Saturday Player Props
Saturday Player Props As each season concludes we are blessed with Saturday NFL action. Week 16 of the 2023 campaign is no different, with two games. Coincidentally, there are major fantasy football ramifications on the line. Using our FullTime Fantasy Week 16 rankings, here are some Saturday Player Props to target as you enjoy the Bengals vs. Steelers and Bills at Chargers games. Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes The Bills have been more run-heavy since changing play-callers. However, facing a Chargers’ secondary that has ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks will result in a different approach. Look for Allen to go to the air and attack LA’s biggest weakness. In fact, Shawn thinks Allen will double this line, tossing three scores on Saturday night. Jake Browning Interception Shawn’s projections are modest for Browning. It’s almost like we’ve all been waiting for that bubble to burst. Browning has tossed three interceptions in his four starts, including each of the last two games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have picked off 13 passes. Also, one of those picks came from Browning back in Week 12. Finally, Shawn’s numbers have Browning closer to multiple INTs than just one. Mason Rudolph OVER 220 Yards Pittsburgh’s offense has somehow been even more incompetent since firing Matt Canada. Except for that first game, the Steelers have been dreadful and that’s resulted in a three-game skid. Mike Tomlin has turned to his third-string quarterback to stop the bleeding. Things can hardly get worse. In his last NFL start, Rudolph completed 60% of his attempts for 242 yards. Shawn’s Week 16 projections aren’t quite that high. But Rudolph should easily be able to top 200 yards against a suspect Cincinnati secondary. Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown A lot of the industry is cool on Mixon this week. However, he has eight touchdowns in his last eight games. Even though Mixon did not score against the Steelers in Week 12, Shawn’s projections give Mixon a 75% chance of getting into the endzone in the rematch. Jaylen Warren to outscore Najee Harris Handicapping Pittsburgh’s backfield has been difficult. Just when Warren started thriving, Najee Harris out-rushed in three straight games. However, with Rudolph under center, Shawn sees Warren as far more valuable. His projections see Warren approaching 110 scrimmage yards while Harris is down closer to 50. Also, look at the Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown props. Our numbers have Warren at a 70% likelihood of hitting paydirt. Stefon Diggs OVER 100 Yards As cold as Diggs and the Buffalo passing attack has been, you can find really good odds on this line. Diggs hasn’t hit the century mark since Week 6. But our Week 16 projections have hive easily topping it with an 8.6/121/1 line. In fact, Diggs is Shawn’s No. 1 wideout in PPR formats. Additionally, the Chargers have allowed five 100-yard wideouts this season, and one even topped 200. We’re all in on the Bills today! Also, the Diggs Anytime Touchdown is appealing. Total Receptions Props Here are some wide receiver reception props to consider using our RDA* projections. Stefon Diggs 8.5 Tee Higgins 6 Josh Palmer 5 James Cook 5 Quentin Johnston 4 Tanner Hudson 4 Anytime Touchdown Finally, some of the other players to score a touchdown per our RDA* Week 16 projections. James Cook 80%(!) Tee Higgins 50% Diontae Johnson 50% Gabe Davis 50% Dalton Kincaid 50% ENTER OUR WEEK 16 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: First, draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Second, try to stack the team with players you think will do well this week. Finally, the highest Week 16 Score wins. (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 16 Player Rankings to help. First, it’s a best-ball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one. Second, you just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard. Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize at the end of the season! Finally, The Grand Prize Winner (highest individual week of the season) gets to choose from the amazing prizes below. If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! MEMBER PERK! Fulltime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Drafts each month in our contest! DRAFT YOUR WEEK 16 TEAM and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Week 16 NFL Player Props
Week 16 NFL Player Props Just three weeks left in the regular season. It’s been a profitable year if you’ve been following this column. We are now 43-33 (+11.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports betting is all about riding the hot streaks
Just three weeks left in the regular season. It’s been a profitable year if you’ve been following this column. We are now 43-33 (+11.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports betting is all about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. Now that we’ve had a few profitable weeks after our first cold streak of the year, let’s see if we can continue to ride the wave and make some more cash in Week 16.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 16’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action during the holidays and we’ll be treated to three games on Christmas this Monday as well as some action on Saturday! Lots of football in the coming days!
Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 16 NFL prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Mason Rudolph UNDER 191.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After Kenny Pickett’s injury, the Steelers moved on to Mitch Trubisky. However, that was short-lived after Trubisky was benched last week in favor of Rudolph. Now, Rudolph will start on Saturday when the Steelers take on a tough Cincinnati Bengals defense. Rudolph has started 10 games in his career.
Although he is 5-4-1 as a starter, it’s hard to envision him being much of an upgrade over Trubisky. After all, Rudolph is mostly known for being attacked by Myles Garrett with his own helmet back in 2019. Still, Pittsburgh is out of options and they have to roll someone out there. Rudolph has averaged 208.1 passing yards per game but I don’t think he’ll reach that mark in a divisional rivalry in cold weather.
The Steelers lack an identity on the offensive side of the football and although Rudolph has several weapons at his disposal including Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and even Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren out of the backfield, Rudolph hasn’t had a lot of reps with these guys.
I anticipate a low-scoring affair in which the Steelers struggle to move the chains. Pittsburgh is a run-first offense but the Bengals are much better at shutting down the run than the pass. If they can effectively contain Harris and Warren in the trenches, Rudolph will struggle to give his receivers space in the secondary. I’m taking the Under.
Baker Mayfield…
WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— If you just lost Joe Burrow or Mark Andrews, USE CODE: BADLUCK for 90% off the REST OF SEASON!!!
DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.
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Week 14 NFL Player Props
Week 14 NFL Player Props After our first cold streak of the season, we bounced back with a 5-2 record in Week 13. The money is flowing in and we are now 39-30 (+9.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports
After our first cold streak of the season, we bounced back with a 5-2 record in Week 13. The money is flowing in and we are now 39-30 (+9.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports betting is all about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. Now that we’ve had another profitable week, let’s see if we can continue to ride the way and make some more cash in Week 14.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 14’s slate of NFL matchups. Unlike last week when every single one of the 32 teams was in action, two teams will get some rest on their bye weeks: the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals. That said, we still have 15 competitive matchups this week with only three games that have a spread of more than a touchdown.
Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Mahomes has not seen his rushing yard prop line this high all season. In fact, he didn’t see a line this high last season either. Last week the line was 20.5 and the highest it’s been over the last two years was 27.5. So why is the line so high this week against a tough Buffalo Bills defense? Perhaps it is because Mahomes is having the best rushing campaign of his career (27.6 yards per game) and has even eclipsed this inflated line in three of 12 games. But it’s not like the Bills are especially vulnerable to quarterback rushing yards. Buffalo is allowing 19.3 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve only allowed one opposing quarterback to eclipse this line in 12 games this season.
That said, the one time the Bills allowed a quarterback to eclipse this line was last week when Jalen Hurts turned 14 carries into 65 rushing yards. But that stay is even misleading considering 27 of those yards came in overtime.
Mahomes will obviously do Mahomesesque things in this battle between two AFC powerhouses but I expect the Chiefs to lean on the passing game, particularly with Isaiah Pacheco sidelined, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get the start and just because Pacheco is out doesn’t mean Andy Reid is going to call designed quarterback runs this close to the end of the season when an injury to Mahomes would derail the Chiefs’ entire Super Bowl hopes.
The one scary thing about this prop is that in five starts against the Bills over his career (two in the postseason), Mahomes has tallied 192 rushing yards on 34 carries. However, I believe those stats are inflated because Mahomes is going to be more inclined to rush in playoff games when the Chiefs have nothing to lose. In a regular season game this far out from the postseason, I anticipate Andy Reid wanting to protect his All-Pro quarterback as much as possible.
The line is quite high due to Mahomes’ success against Buffalo but the Bills will keep him in check on the ground. Patrick Mahomes is not Jalen Hurts so don’t expect another 60+ yards from this quarterback on the ground. Patrick has proven that he is much more comfortable moving the chains with his arm rather than his legs. Take the UNDER.
WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— If you just lost Joe Burrow or Mark Andrews, USE CODE: BADLUCK for 90% off the REST OF SEASON!!!
DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.