Running Back Regression After Leading the NFL in Rushing
Running Back Regression After Leading the NFL in Rushing Leading the NFL in rushing is a career highlight for most running backs. It also leads to banner fantasy football totals. However, most RBs see a precipitous decline in production the season after topping the league in rushing yards. This running back regression after leading the NFL in rushing has happened in 22 of the past 25 seasons and paints a worrisome fantasy outlook for the league’s reigning rushing king. Many different factors can lead to a sudden dropoff. As my friend Gary Davenport first divulged in his Curse of 370 and revisited for 2025, heavy usage is a key contributor to predicting running back regression. Other variables like coaching changes, strength of schedule, supporting cast, and age also play a role. Before I take a deep dive back through the past 25 seasons, let’s recap all the running backs that have led the NFL in rushing this century and find some key takeaways. NFL Rushing Leaders 2000-2025 Over the past 25 seasons, 20 different running backs led the NFL in rushing yards. Only LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Derrick Henry have done it more than once. You could also doff your proverbial cap to Edgerrin James, who ascended the leaderboard in 1999, becoming the first player since Eric Dickerson (1983-1984) to lead the league in his first two pro campaigns. In all, league-leading backs averaged 340 carries for 1,716 rushing yards (4.98 yards per carry) and scored 15.7 total touchdowns. That averaged out to just under 349 fantasy points (PPR), or 21.9 points per game. The splits were 15 rushing champs from the AFC, while 10 represented the NFC. The NFC East produced five, while the NFC South is the only division that has not had an NFL rushing champ in the last 25 years, nor has there ever been one from that division. The Saints’ George Rogers led the league with 1,674 yards back in 1981, but New Orleans was then part of the NFC West. Leading the league in rushing is more than an individual honor. Coaching, schemes, quarterbacking, and the offensive line all play a pivotal role. There are also numerous other elements that play a role in a team’s ability to manufacture a rushing leader. Contributing Factors for Success Health One of the most important factors for posting big numbers is staying healthy. From 2000-2015, no running back who led the league in rushing missed a single game. Even the backs who missed one were rested by their team in the season finale. Derrick Henry is the only running back in the last 25 years to lead the league in rushing but miss a game due to injury. Henry missed Week 16 of the 2019 season with a hamstring injury and returned to action in the season finale to rush for a season-high 211 yards to top the league. Every other running back in the past 25 seasons to lead the league in rushing has stayed healthy for every game or sat out the regular-season finale to rest for the playoffs. Winning Team Speaking of playoffs, teams that produced the leading rusher averaged 9.96 wins versus 6.2 losses, making the postseason in 18 of the 25 seasons (72%). However, only three of those teams made the Super Bowl, and the only squad to win is the reigning champions, the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles. Having a winning record also leads to more friendly game scripts for the rushing attack. Teams nursing second-half leads tend to rely on their lead backs to grind down the clock. Age The wear and tear that NFL running backs accumulate takes a toll. 20 of the 25 (80%) rushing leaders were under 28 entering the season in which they finished first. Looking at the averages, RBs had a mean age of 25.4 in those seasons. They also averaged 4.6 years of experience. Only two backs (Curtis Martin in 2004, Adrian Peterson in 2015) were older than 28. No rusher who was 29 when the season started has led the NFL in rushing since Barry Sanders did it back in 1997. NFL RUSHING LEADER AGE DISTRIBUTION AGE OCCURANCES RATE 21-23 6 24% 24-26 10 40% 27-28 7 28% 29+ 2 8% Skill Set & Fantasy Production Volume is king in fantasy, and rushers who accumulate enough touches to post elite numbers are typically three-down workhorses. 24 of the 25 RBs posted top-5 fantasy finishes. The only back who did not, Adrian Peterson in 2008, caught only 21 passes for 125 yards in 16 games. In the other 24 seasons tracked, running backs averaged 44 receptions annually. Derrick Henry is an outlier, but part of the formula for RB success in today’s high-octane NFL is to stay on the field on passing downs. However, the inability to do just that, stay on the field, is one of the main reasons we see noteworthy running back regression the year after they lead the league in rushing yards. Immediate Regression in the Next Season While winning a rushing crown is a notable accomplishment for a pro running back, there is usually a staggering dropoff in play the following season. 88% have seen an immediate dip in effectiveness, and it is usually a significant decline. Only three running backs since the 2000 season have posted better fantasy numbers the year after they led the NFL in rushing yards. As for the other 22, they averaged a 36.8% decline in fantasy points the following season. Notable Declines Running backs have always been a hot commodity on draft day. Particularly three-down workhorse backs coming off a rushing crown who finished the previous campaign at an average rank of RB 2.76. But fantasy draft history is loaded with first-round RB busts who stumbled after they broke out the previous season. Running Backs who led the league in rushing in 2000-2024 finished as the RB 2.7 in PPR leagues, but plummeted to an average of RB22.3 the following season.
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 Last week’s AFC North Thursday night shootout more than lived up to the hype. Conversely, this week’s NFC East tilt looks like a worthy successor. The upstart Washington Commanders travel to Philadelphia to take
Last week’s AFC North Thursday night shootout more than lived up to the hype. Conversely, this week’s NFC East tilt looks like a worthy successor. The upstart Washington Commanders travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 has everything you’ll need to know about this intriguing battle for the division lead.
The Commanders have done a 180. It’s funny how competent ownership and a terrific rookie quarterback can turn a franchise around seemingly overnight. At 7-3, Dan Quinn’s club is 3-2 on the road and 2-0 in division play.
Meanwhile, the Eagles (7-2) sit atop the division standings with a slim half-game lead. Nick Siriani has led Philly to five consecutive wins after destroying the Cowboys last week 34-6.
This game opened with the Eagles as touchdown favorites. However, a ton of action on the Commanders has driven the line down from Philadelphia -7 to just 3.5. Conversely, the total has jumped up two points to 48.5.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Washington Commanders | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 24 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
Looking at the above stats, these teams are as evenly matched as the standings indicate. However, on defense, it is a different story.
The Eagles allow 274.1 yards per game, which ranks second overall. Philadelphia has surrendered the fifth-fewest points. They also rank second against the pass and fifth versus the run. This will be a tough matchup for Washington, who has had no problems moving the ball.
Nick Siriani’s crew doesn’t pass a ton but they don’t have to. The Eagles are content to use their ground game and take play-action shots downfield. While the Commanders have vastly improved defensively, they still allow the fourth-most rushing yards (142.7 per game).
That plays right into Philly’s hands.
This looks like a promising watch, with both teams mounting top-6 offenses that are top-10 in scoring. Therefore, the fantasy points should pile up.
Washington Offense
Jayden Daniels has more than lived up to the hype. The No. 2 pick enters Week 11 as fantasy football’s…
How will Thursday’s Commanders vs. Eagles game go?
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Elite Running Back that Vegas is Fading in 2024
Elite Running Back that Vegas is Fading in 2024. Long-time Las Vegas gambler and ranked high-stakes fantasy player Frank Taddeo (@RespectedMoney on X) is always watching Vegas oddsmakers to identify best bets and fantasy values. COULD THIS RB1 BURN FANTASY MANAGERS in 2024? In our initial series of highlighting players who are witnessing significant movement in their 2024 NFL betting markets here at Fulltime Fantasy, we dove into a rookie running back expected to make a major impact in 2024 as well as a wideout who may struggle to return fair ADP value. A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook. The latest installment leads us to new Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley. The former Giants standout lands in Philadelphia after signing a three-year, $37.75 million contract in free agency. The expectations are the highest they have ever been for the two-time Pro Bowl back who has scored 47 touchdowns in his first six seasons in the NFL. Saquon Barkley just posted this edit on his Instagram 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/AXcvVwLd6T — Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) March 12, 2024 Fantasy managers are investing premium draft capital in Barkley in early FFWC drafts. The 2018 OROY owns an ADP of 15.9 / RB6 after coming off the board as high as 13 with a low of 18. Due to the dynamic running ability of dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts, can Barkley yield enough production in his first season on Broad Street to reward those who invest high draft capital? VEGAS ODDSMAKERS FADING POTENTIAL PRODUCTION Over the last three seasons, three different Eagles players have led the club in rushing: 2023 D’Andre Swift (1,049); 2022 Miles Sanders (1,269), and 2021 Jalen Hurts (784). Oddsmakers, who initially installed Barkley with a rushing yard betting projection of 1125.5, have adjusted the tailback down to a betting demand of 1025.5 at DraftKings. While only shaving his production by 100 yards, the most alarming move is currently being witnessed in his overall total rushing touchdown projection sliced from 9.5 to 6.5. “A FULL three rushing touchdown fade may lead to a higher ADP in high stakes drafts held later this summer as word of this move spreads. ” – Frankie Taddeo Following the retirement of future HOF center Jason Kelce, many expected the Eagles to employ the “Tush Push” less frequently with Barkley now owning lead backfield duties. However, oddsmakers are now tempering their expectations for significant goal line volume. Barkley, who came off the board at 2.5 in the latest Circa Championship Draft held on June 30, has also seen his receiving yards betting projection reduced from 325.5 yards to 300.5. WR1 Saquon Barkley? 🤔 4 receptions 57 receiving yards 2 TDspic.twitter.com/BpnGkgnxxe — NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 19, 2023 The move in his receiving yards market is perplexing as Barkley totaled 288 receptions for 2,100 yards and 12 touchdowns working out of the backfield – despite less-than-ideal QB play during his NY tenure. If we remove his 2020 campaign (torn ACL – played only two games), Barkley has averaged 408 receiving yards per season (721, 438, 263, 338, 280). In Philadelphia, Barkley will now play with one of the best signal-callers in the NFL in Hurts. Last season Eagles RBs hauled in 74 receptions, sans a back of Barkley’s pass-catching prowess. Despite the fade in betting markets, fantasy managers should not be afraid to invest second-round draft capital in the dynamic Barkley as he will be playing in a Top 5 NFL offense for the first time in his career. For the past 15 years, Football Contest Proxy has provided the leading service to submit picks in major Las Vegas football contests from anywhere in the world and built FootballContest.com into the top online destination for football contest info. All you need to do to enter is sign up in person sometime before football season kicks off. FCP does the rest as your proxy – it really is that easy. Simply plan your trip to Vegas and schedule a time with FCP to get signed up for whatever contest(s) you want to enter. As a proxy partner of FullTimeFantasy, you can also SAVE $50 through September 2 by clicking here. Just enter promo code FANTASY at checkout for instant savings, so make your best pick and go with the pros at FootballContest.com!
2024 Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Preview
2024 Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Preview The Eagles were the team to beat through the first 12 weeks of the 2023 season before a significant decline in play. After beginning 10-1, they lost five of six and allowed the Cowboys to
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Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report Jahmyr Gibbs (29.90 fantasy points) was the highest-scoring running back in Week 8 in PPR formats, coming on the heels of another top-showing (11/68/1 with nine catches for 58 yards). Christian McCaffrey (29.80) and
Jahmyr Gibbs (29.90 fantasy points) was the highest-scoring running back in Week 8 in PPR formats, coming on the heels of another top-showing (11/68/1 with nine catches for 58 yards). Christian McCaffrey (29.80) and Gus Edwards (29.40) filled out the running back trifecta. Five other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Alvin Kamara (24.57) and Travis Etienne (23.97) averaged the most fantasy points per game in PPR formats over the past three weeks. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average over the first eight weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
- Travis Etienne (20.49)
- Raheem Mostert (19.64)
- Kenneth Walker (16.09)
- Zack Moss (15.65)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top-Tier Options
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)
The excellent opportunity continued in Week 8 for Kamara. He gained 110 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches on 21 touches against the Colts. The Saints gave him the ball 125 times over his first five starts, leading to 110 yards and 7.8 catches per game. Taysom Hill sniped three rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks while also stealing 14 rushes for 81 yards.
Chicago ranks 27th in running back defense (25.54 FPPG), with most of their struggles coming over the first three games (34.50, 23.20, and 46.30 fantasy points). The Bears continue to play well vs. the run (193/630/4 – 3.3 yards per carry), but backs have 48 catches for 497 yards and five touchdowns on 61 targets.
Kamara holds his floor in most weeks due to his value in the passing game. His rising salary requires more than 32.00 fantasy points at DraftKings, but he can’t reach that level without at least one long play and a touchdown. New Orleans will get Jamaal Williams involved, and Hill has been stealing away his explosiveness. Playing well, and the Saints’ offense should score in this game.
Saquon Barkley, NYG (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,600)
The Giants’ offense has been dismal in seven of the eight games, leading them averaging only 11.9 points per game. Over the last three weeks, Barkley has been a big part of New York’s game plan (81/298 with 19 catches for 46 yards and one touchdown on 91 touches). Daniel Jones returns this week, along with LT Andrew Thomas, breathing life into all offensive players for the Giants. Barkley posted one playable game (27.20 fantasy points) in Week 2.
Las Vegas fell to 29th in running back defense (27.34 FPPG) after struggling over the past three weeks (31.80, 40.80, and 38.50 fantasy points). The Raiders allow 4.5 yards per rush, with backs scoring 11 touchdowns. Over the past two games, Chicago and Detroit rushed for 395 yards with three touchdowns. Running backs have 42 catches for 267 yards and one score on 56 targets.
With Daniel Jones back in the starting lineup, Barkley will see…
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2023 New York Giants Outlook
2023 New York Giants Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player
2023 New York Giants Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 New York Giants Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Daniel Jones
Over his first three seasons with the Giants, Jones posted a 12-25 record with 45 passing touchdowns and 49 turnovers (29 interceptions and 36 fumbles – 20 lost). He added value to their run game (172/1,000/5 – 5.8 yards per rush), but Jones gained only 6.6 yards per pass attempt in his career. Five of his six 300-yard passing games came in his rookie season.
In 2021, he missed the final six matchups with a neck injury that didn’t require surgery. His only game of value came in Week 2 (429/2) while failing to deliver over two scores in any contest.
Jones set a career-best with his completion rate (67.2) last season, giving him three consecutive years of improvement. The change in coaching staff allowed him to be much more active in the run game (120/708/7), but he averaged only 29.5 passes over his 16 starts. Over his last 41 games, Jones threw only 36 passing touchdowns. His best growth area in 2022 was turnovers (five interceptions and three lost fumbles). He passed for more than 300 yards three times (341/1, 334/1, and 301/2) while finishing with 200 or fewer passing yards in 12 of his 18 matchups (including the postseason).
Fantasy Outlook: Despite missing one game, Jones finished 12th in quarterback scoring (329/05) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. He scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four games (30.80, 30.05, 37.95, and 30.85), two of which came from big days on the ground (11/107/1 and 11/91/2). This draft season, Jones is the 15th quarterback off the board. New York gave him a big-play wideout in this year’s draft, suggesting a new top in his yards per pass attempt (6.8 or below in all four seasons in the NFL). With 525 pass attempts, Jones has a chance at 4,300 combined yards with about 27 touchdowns.
Other Options: Tyrod Taylor, DeVito
— Running Backs —
The running back production for the Giants had a significant jump last year. They had 46 more rushing attempts than in 2021 but gained 408 rushing yards while setting three-year tops in yards per rush (4.4) and rushing touchdowns (13). On the downside, New York gave their backs fewer chances in the passing game (84/528/0), with continued weakness in their yards per catch (6.3). They finished with 2,228 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 84 catches (22.64 FPPG in PPR formats).
Saquon Barkley
In his rookie season, Barkley ranked second in running back scoring (385.80 in PPR leagues – 2,028 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 91 catches). He gained 1,441 combined yards the following year with eight touchdowns and 52 catches over 13 games (high-ankle sprain). His success over his first 29 games came to 21.65 fantasy points per game.
A torn ACL in his right knee in 2020 led to only two games of action (94 yards and six catches on 25 touches).
In 2021, Barkley struggled over his first two games (23/83 – 3.6 yards per catch and three catches for 13 yards) before looking sharp over the next two weeks (220 combined with three touchdowns and 11 catches). Unfortunately, a left ankle injury in Week 5 led to him missing most of his next five games. When Barkley returned to the lineup, the Giants’ offense lacked a pulse, leading to a dull finish to the season (521 combined yards with one score and 27 catches). He gained only 3.7 yards per rush and 4.9 yards per catch over this span.
The change in coaching staff in 2022 led to Barkley getting 352 touches, leading to career-highs in carries (295), rushing yards (1,312), and rushing touchdowns (13). He had nine plays of 20 yards or more, with three reaching the 40-yard mark. New York struggled to get him in space in the passing game (5.9 yards per catch). Barkley rushed for more than 100 yards in four games (18/164/1, 31/146, 24/110, and 35/152/1) but none after Week 10.
Fantasy Outlook: He finished fifth in running back scoring (284.50) in PPR leagues while delivering only one impact game (33.40 fantasy points in Week 1). Barkley scored between 17.00 and 27.50 fantasy points in 10 of his 18 starts. His lowest three outputs (6.80, 7.80, and 10.20 fantasy points) came over his final six matchups. In mid-June, Barkley is the fifth running back drafted with an early second-round ADP. The Giants gave him a franchise tag this spring, possibly inviting a holdout this summer and into the season. With the Giants trending up, I believe Barkley will get signed before the start of the season. He has an upside of 1,800 combined yards with double-digit scores and 70 catches.
Eric Gray
Over the past three seasons at Oklahoma, Gray had caught 86 of his 106 targets for 712 yards and four touchdowns. His best opportunity in the run game came in 2022 (213/1,366/11), where he set a four-year high in yards per rush (6.4). Gray gained 3,816 combined yards with 26 scores and 99 catches in his 47 games in college.
Fantasy Outlook: Gray gives New York an upside RB2 for…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE GIANTS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
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2019 Fantasy Football: New York Giants Expanded Team Outlook
In this New York Giants Expanded Team Outlook, Shawn Childs provides meticulous & in-depth Fantasy Football breakdowns of the entire franchise.
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New York Jets Training Camp Questions
These important New York Jets Training Camp Questions will help focus our attention on what’s needed from them this Fantasy Football season!
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