Last week’s game offered a lot for fantasy football fans. And the Lions/Packers game mostly lived up to the hype. That won’t necessarily be the case in Week 4. The winless Chicago Bears travel to the nation’s capital to face the 2-2 Washington Commanders. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5 breaks down this week’s NFC slugfest.

The Bears finally showed some life last week. However, a defensive collapse in the second half led to another loss for Matt Eberflus’s club. Chicago is now one of only two winless clubs in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Ron Rivera’s Washington squad dropped their second consecutive game after opening the season 2-0. However, the Commanders had a good showing, losing 34-31 in Philadelphia.

This is a pivotal game for both teams. Eberflus is feeling the pressure to get a win. Also, the Commanders need to take advantage of an easy schedule to break a two-game losing streak and remain in playoff contention.

Washington opened as 4.5-point favorites before some early action dropped that to -3.5. The over/under rose to 44.5.

Matchup 

The numbers show these teams are quite evenly matched. Their offenses rank back-to-back overall and are separated by just 5o yards. However, Washington has scored 20-plus points in three of four games and twice gone over 30.

Meanwhile, Chicago had three lackluster showings before finally showing some life against a hapless Denver defense on Sunday. For the Bears to have a shot, they’ll need some of Justin Fields’s Week 4 magic to carry over.

And it very well could. Both teams are bottom-10 in terms of allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. That invites some solid fantasy, daily, and DFS scoring potential.

Chicago Offense 

Justin Fields had the best passing day of his career last week. Fields posted a 132.7 QB Rating and threw for a career-high 335 yards and four TDs. Fields’s accuracy has improved in 2023 but his rushing production has plummeted. After averaging 76 rushing yards per game last year, Fields is down to 33.5 in 2023.

This week’s matchup appears fine for the passing game. Washington has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing passers. Also, that includes 131 yards on the ground- third-most through four games.

After hearing that Roschon Johnson would get an opportunity to be Chicago’s RB1, Khalil Herbert played a season-high 77.8%…

How will Thursday’s Lions vs. Packers game go?

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Betting Line: Commanders – 7

Over/Under: 39.0

The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is on the PUP list with no clear timetable to return to the starting lineup. Incoming rookie Clayton Tune looks poised to start in Week 1 after getting drafted in the fifth round this year. James Conner is the lead back with minimal competition for snaps. Zack Ertz is trending toward a sit in Week 1. Arizona will feature Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the passing game. They hope Michael Wilson can handle their WR3 role at some point in the season.

Washington has a top defense with a developing quarterback (Sam Howell) who will be making his second career start. The change at offensive coordinator could lead to a bump in production at running back in the passing game, rewarding Antonio Gibson. Brian Robinson is their power running with the inside track to score in close. A turf toe issue may keep Terry McLaurin on the sideline in Week 1. For now, Jahan Dotson assumes the lead wide receiver role, and Curtis Samuel gets a bump in chances.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Arizona Cardinals

Clayton Tune

• Clayton Tune was Arizona’s shot at a future quarterback. His mechanics need work to improve his accuracy under duress and on the move. He can read defenses, but his arm doesn’t always have the fire to win in tight coverage. 
• Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. He was also active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
• I don’t know if he will start with the Cardinals signing Joshua Dobbs and releasing Colt McCoy.
• Washington had a league-average defense vs. quarterbacks in 2022 (18.84 FPPG).
• Tune has to walk before being considered to start any format. I have a feeling he will make progress as the season moves on if Arizona gives him starting snaps.

James Conner

• Conner finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games last season. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18, he had a shin injury. 
• From Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
• The Cardinals will give him 15+ touches with some value in catches. The lack of quarterback play is a significant concern for…

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2023 Washington Commanders Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Washington Commanders Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Sam Howell

Howell threw 92 touchdowns over three seasons at North Carolina while gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt. In 2021, he improved dramatically in the run game (183/828/11 – 4.5 yards per rush). Howell finished his college career with 10,283 passing yards, but his passing touchdowns declined each season (38, 30, and 24) while only tossing 23 interceptions.

Despite success running the ball in his final year in college, Howell didn’t win with his speed. He showed the ability to take a hit and stay upright with the vision to make extra yards. This style of play won’t translate well in the NFL, meaning that Howell will need to pick his spots better in the run game and know when to slide.

On the positive, he will be a dual threat to score near the goal line. The Tarheels lined him out of the shotgun almost exclusively. Howell has the arm to fire deep downfield on time. He was willing to use his tight ends. Also, some speedy wideouts helped his success in big plays. His next step is removing some wasted motion in his release (ball taps) on some plays. Howell handles himself well in the pocket, thanks to his legs.

In his rookie season, The Commanders only had Howell on the field for one game (204 combined yards with two touchdowns and one interception). Four of his 11 completions gained 20 yards or more. 

Fantasy Outlook: The keys to Washington’s offense are in the hands of Howell. First, he has a slickness to his movements with the look of a competitive passer in the NFL. Secondly, the Commanders have three viable options at wide receiver, and Dyami Brown had his best seasons (51/1,034/12 and 55/1,099/8) at college with Howell throwing him the ball. He projects as a backend QB2 in the fantasy market. Finally, I’m intrigued, but Washington will taper his passing chances in his rookie season. With a 75/300/2 line in the run game, Howell should gain more than 4,000 combined yards with only a league-average ceiling in touchdowns.

Other Options: Jacoby Brissett, Jake Fromm, Tim DeMorat

— Running Backs —

The running back position had a significant part of the Commanders’ offense in 2022. They set three-year highs in rushing attempts (483), and rushing yards (1,926), leading to 2,552 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 89 catches (23.79 FPPG in PPR formats) on 572 touches. The offensive philosophy change led to a pullback in the passing chances (89/626/3).

Brian Robinson

Robinson worked his way into a high-volume role in his fifth season at Alabama. He finished with 306 touches, leading to 1,639 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and 35 catches. Over his first four years, Robinson gained a combined 1,511 yards with 15 touchdowns and 17 catches. In 2021, he didn’t score a touchdown over his final five games while struggling in three matchups (16/71, 16/55, and 22/68) in the run game.

There is something to be said for a running back gaining experience in touches. Robinson is a power back with the ability to make yards after contact. He runs with patience while having the drive to cut fast into daylight at the line of scrimmage. When asked to pass block, Robinson understands his role and stays in tune with his quarterback to become a late passing option out of the backfield. Also, his improved opportunity in 2021 should only make him better in the NFL.

An unfortunate gunshot injury led Robinson missing on the first four games with Washington. By his second game, the Commanders gave him a bulk of carries, leading to a productive final 11 weeks (196/775/2 with nine catches for 60 yards and one score). He gained more than 100 yards in three consecutive starts from Week 12 to Week 14. His season ended with a knee injury in Week 18. 

Fantasy Outlook: Washington will rotate two running backs in 2023. Robinson had nine catches for 60 yards and one score last year, with higher usage in the passing game (35/296/2) in his final year at Alabama. The Commander should give him between 17 to 20 touches this year, pointing to 1,200 combined yards, six to eight touchdowns, and about 20 catches. As the 36th running back drafted, Robinson is on a path to post an RB2 season in PPR formats.

Antonio Gibson

In his sophomore year with the Commanders, Gibson gained 1,331 combined yards with 10 scores and 42 catches on 300 touches over 16 games. However, he missed Week 17 with Covid-19. On the downside, Gibson gained only 4.0 yards per carry. Also, only four of his 258 rushes gained 20 yards or more. Washington gave him a high-volume opportunity (23.4 touches per game) in seven of his final eight starts, leading to 687 yards with five touchdowns and 23 catches. His only two games with over 100 yards rushing came in Week 12 (29/111 with seven catches for 35 yards) and Week 18 (21/146/1 with one catch for five yards). 

Gibson failed to take advantage of the four games (56/179/2 – 3.2 yards per rush with 16 catches for 134 yards) missed by Brian Robinson to start 2022, leading to him working as Washington’s RB2 over his final 11 matchups (missed Week 17 and 18 with knee and foot issues). He finished the year with 899 combined yards with five touchdowns and 46 catches (28th in running back scoring in PPR leagues). Also, Gibson had foot surgery after the season.

Fantasy Outlook: With J.D. McKissic no longer on the roster…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE COMMANDERS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

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