Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 Last week’s AFC East showdown boasted a ton of fantasy potential. Conversely, this New England Patriots vs. New York Jets rivalry game looks less appealing. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game. The Patriots got an upset win on the road in their opener. However, they weren’t able to get much going at home versus Seattle last week. Now traveling on a short week to face a tough Jets’ defense is another obstacle. Meanwhile, New York is coming off of a victory but has mostly struggled to move the ball. The Jets are winning games with an old-school mentality. With the Patriots struggling to pass and produce touchdowns, we are looking at a low-scoring slugfest type of game. New York opened as a touchdown favorite at home. The line dipped by just a half-point. However, the total plummeted down to 39 after opening at 42.5. Matchup TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS New England Patriots 20 29 5 25 20 New York Jets 27 22 26 20 15 The raw data backs up that low total. Other than the Patriots doing an excellent job rushing the ball, neither of these squads stand out on offense. Offensive line play is a reason why. New England’s front five has the fourth-lowest pass-blocking grade per PFF. And despite the success running the ball, the Patriots only rank 26th in run-blocking. Conversely, the Jets rank 10th in run-blocking and 24th in pass protection. Only the Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards than the Patriots. Points will be at a premium in this one. New England Offense Through two games, Jacoby Brissett ranks 29th in fantasy points. He has been held under 150 passing yards in both games. Additionally, Brissett doesn’t add much value with his legs. Facing a Jets defense that ranks ninth in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks is a daunting task. Brissett is +850 to rush for a touchdown. Also, his passing/rushing yards total of 181.5 hampers the entire New England passing attack. This is not an offense to target. However, the ground game looks solid. Rhamondre Stevenson ranks eighth in fantasy points. Stevenson is top-5 in carries and rushing yards and ranks sixth with a 75.6% snap share. Facing a Jets’ defense that ranks 24th against the run puts Stevenson in a solid position to approach RB1 numbers. Don’t overreact to Antonio Gibson’s Week 2 performance. Gibson played just 16 snaps. He may have earned more playing time moving forward. However, until he gets more consistent snaps, Gibson is little more than a fledgling flex option in deep leagues. New England doesn’t throw enough to their receivers to warrant redraft attention. No Patriots’ wideout is projected to top 22 yards. Ja’Lynn Polk leads the group in fantasy points. But Polk’s 10.8 fantasy points ranks 69th at the position. K.J. Osborn leads the receiving corps in snap share (68.4%) and has a solid 17% snap share. However, Osborn has only accumulated four grabs for 28 yards in two games. Demario Douglas will man the slot but has only caught two balls for 12 yards. The only Patriot pass-catcher worth targeting is TE Hunter Henry. Henry is coming off a robust 8/109/0 line on 12 targets vs. Seattle. However, this week’s matchup is tougher. The Jets held George Kittle to 40 yards and will undoubtedly make stopping Henry a priority. Henry’s receiving line total of 31.5 for this game is concerning. New York Offense Aaron Rodgers enters this game ranked 21st in fantasy points. He is relying on quick/short throws, resulting in a career-low 6.8 ADOT. Meanwhile, the Patriots have only allowed one touchdown pass. However, that came last week when Geno Smith looked fine throwing for 327 yards. Rodgers no longer runs and his passing over/under for this contest is 214 yards. Only the Texans and Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs than New England. Still, Breece Hall is tied for the position lead with 14 targets and ranks fourth in fantasy points. The last time he faced this defense, Hall turned 39 touches into 190 yards and a score. Braelon Allen made the most of his 20 snaps last week. However, he’ll find the going tougher against a Patriots’ defense that ranks 10th against running backs. Allen should be viewed as a high-risk DFS option in single-game slates. WR Garrett Wilson has disappointed. The volume has not been there and Wilson ranks just 34th in fantasy points. However, the Patriots just got worked over by Seattle. They’ve surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts. Wilson will see plenty of Christian Gonzales in coverage, but his +145 TD odds and receiving line of 5.5/66.5 look good. Mike Williams was up to 37 snaps in Week 2. However, Williams is still recovering from last year’s knee injury. He’s little more than a boom-or-bust DFS flier for now. Williams has a yardage prop of 23.5 yards and is +490 to score. Allen Lazard fell off after his explosive showing in the opener. Lazard’s TD and yardage odds are higher than Williams’s, indicating that he is considered New York’s No. 2. TE Tyler Conklin is playing 93% of snaps but has little production to show for all the playing time. Conklin has garnered just four targets and is averaging fewer fantasy points per game than Andrew Ogletree and MyCole Pruitt. Prediction & Best Bet Easy W taking the Bills last week. Buffalo has dominated the Dolphins. However, this matchup is tougher. In January, the Jets finally ended a 15-game losing streak to the Patriots with a 17-3 victory at Foxborough. The last time New York beat New England at home was in December 2015. As one-sided as this rivalry has been, the Jets have failed to cover in six of their last seven. However, none of those games were with Aaron Rodgers under center. Having a credible signal-caller makes a huge difference. Meanwhile,
2024 New England Patriots Fantasy Preview
2024 New England Patriots Fantasy Preview The New England Patriots will move into a new era after selecting Drake Maye out of UNC with the No. 3 Draft pick. Maye has the prototypical size of an NFL quarterback with exceptional arm talent and reliable running ability. He can stand in the pocket and has great velocity and deep-ball accuracy. However, if his first read is covered, he is often prone to mistakes and occasionally lacks accuracy on intermediate throws. While he’s certainly an upgrade from Mac Jones, he won’t be fantasy-relevant except in Superflex and dynasty formats. New England doesn’t have a ton of offensive firepower and will likely struggle in Maye’s debut season. Look for the Patriots to lean on the running game with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson in the backfield. Stevenson only played 12 games last season but still finished as the RB35 and averaged 12.1 PPR points per game. He’s one year removed from a 1,000-yard season. Stevenson should get the bulk of the early down opportunities but Gibson will see plenty of action in a change-of-pace role. Maye will likely check it down as much as possible until he gets used to the speed of the NFL, so Gibson could be a sneaky late-round fantasy pick. The Pats have some solid tight ends in Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, and even rookies Mitchell Wilcox and Jaheim Bell. But New England’s receivers leave a lot to be desired. Mac Jones was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last year while having to lean on receivers Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. None of those players instill fear in opposing secondaries. Douglas was the most efficient wideout on the roster in 2023 but only managed to finish as the WR63 in PPR formats. The Pats realized that to compete, they needed to improve their skill position players. Enter second-round Washington WR Ja’Lynn Polk. Polk should be on the field in three-receiver sets next to Bourne and Douglas. Additionally, the Patriots also took a shot on Javon Baker out of UCF in the fourth round but he’ll be more of a project. For the first time in two decades, the New England Patriots are in a complete rebuild. They aren’t expected to contend but they have some young players worth monitoring. Overall, this is not an offense to prioritize in fantasy drafts. Quarterbacks QB DRAKE MAYE – BYE WEEK FILL-IN Drake Maye has the toughest road of the presumptive 2024 rookie starters. New England is just starting a rebuild after falling to 30th in offense and last in scoring in 2023. Maye (6-4, 223) has ideal size, excellent athleticism, and a cannon arm. On the other hand, Maye was a divisive prospect whose production plummeted when facing pressure and he struggled to consistently go through progressions. Additionally, the Patriots will give veteran Jacoby Brissett every opportunity to open the season as their starter. New England also has the second-lowest win total this season. Even if he starts Week 1, Maye will face plenty of attrition this year, making him a fantasy option to avoid. ADVICE: QB2 only in dynasty formats QB JACOBY BRISSETT – LOW POTENTIAL ADVICE: If Drake Maye isn’t deemed ready the Pats won’t hesitate to open the season with Brissett under center. The veteran journeyman is capable of posting solid fantasy QB2 numbers in spurts. Subsequently, Brissett is becoming more fantasy-relevant in deeper Superflex drafts. Running Backs RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON – QUALITY BACKUP Stevenson was a popular breakout candidate last summer. However, New England put the ‘offense’ in offensive and Stevenon’s season was cut short due to a high-ankle sprain. Before going down, Stevenson was averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game in the final four games in which he received double-digit carries. The Patriots are projected to win the fewest games in the AFC. They also have the league’s second-toughest schedule. Additionally, Antonio Gibson looms as a threat to cut into Stevenson’s receiving role. Stevenson should lead the backfield in carries and if Gibson struggles to adapt, could be a sneaky ‘hero’ RB candidate at a discounted price. ADVICE: Flex play with some pass-catching. RB ANTONIO GIBSON – QUALITY BACKUP Gibson only had a 43% success rate in zone concepts last season, some 10% worse than Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots will switch to a zone-blocking scheme. That means Gibson may be reduced to change-of-pace duties. Gibson has been a productive receiver but appears to firmly be the RB2 behind Stevenson. Things can change, of course. There has been some talk of Gibson having a legitimate chance of unseating Stevenson and being a quality post-hype sleeper. However, the analytics have not been in his favor. View Gibson as more of an RB4/5 with some pass-catching upside. ADVICE: RB4 with limited potential in a zone-blocking scheme. Wide Receivers WR DEMARIO DOUGLAS – BYE WEEK FILL-IN Douglas emerged as New England’s top receiver last year, catching 49-of-79 targets for 561 scoreless yards. He commanded a healthy 24.8% target share but wasn’t particularly effective. Douglas ended up with a negative EPA for an offense that ranked 28th in passing. New England’s 2024 offense is in a state of flux, with a new quarterback and several new pass-catchers added to the mix. Douglas is the favorite to open the season as the Patriots’ slot receiver but he’s assuredly going to see a reduced target share. He’s little more than a WR5/6 in deeper leagues. ADVICE: Will contend for starting slot duties but has very little fantasy value. WR KENDRICK BOURNE – BYE WEEK FILL-IN ADVICE: Bourne will enter training camp penciled in as one of New England’s starters. But with a new regime, new quarterback, and added competition, he is by no means a sure bet. View Bourne as an end-of-roster depth add with limited ceiling. WR JA’LYNN POLK – BYE WEEK FILL-IN ADVICE: New England’s receiving corps is tough to handicap, but Polk has good size (6-1, 203,) hands, and excelled against zone coverage. The odds are good that Polk will earn a
NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Eagles – 5 Over/Under: 45.0 Philadelphia comes a sensational season in 2022, but they finished one step short of greatness. Jalen Hurts offers power running with developing value in the passing game. The Eagles have a top offensive line, and their defense created plenty of pressure on the quarterback last season. Philly has three excellent receiving options (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert) while adding D’Andre Smith in the offseason. New England is struggling to find their offensive identity after losing Tom Brady a few seasons ago. The Patriots have talent on defense, and they want to run the ball to control the clock. Mac Jones is a much better player than most believe. He can’t reach elite status without better play and production from his receiving corps. Rhamondre Stevenson will get plenty of touches this season, while Ezekiel Elliott brings experience off the bench. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts Hurts continues to be a beast in the run game, highlighted by his stats in 2022 (165/760/13) despite missing two weeks. The improvement in his receiving options last year led to career-highs in completions (306), pass attempts (460), passing yards (3,701), passing touchdowns (22), yards per pass attempts (8.0), and completion rate (66.5). He passed for 300 yards or more in five matchups (333/1, 340/3, 380/3, 315/0, and 301/1), lifting him to third in quarterback scoring (423.05) in four-point passing touchdown formats. Hurts scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (37.35, 31.00, 30.05, 31.25, 31.35, 38.20, 32.55, 39.5, and 45.20) in nine of his 18 starts (including the postseason). New England ranked seventh defending quarterback (19.16 FPPG), with failure in two matchups (30.70 and 35.50 fantasy points). Quarterbacks rushed for 322 yards on 70 carries vs. the Patriots with two scores. To reach a winning score in Week 1, Hurts must score more than 30.00 fantasy points. It’s not the best matchup, but he is still a coin flip in any week due to his high floor in the run game and his exceptional receiving options. D’Andre Swift Swift appeared to kick down the fantasy door in Week 1 (15/144/1 with three catches for 31 yards) of 2022. Unfortunately, Detroit only gave him 17 touches over the following two games, leading to 133 combined yards with one score and five catches. A shoulder issue cost him three weeks plus a shallow role over the next five matchups (23/61/2 with 16 catches for 109 yards and one touchdown). Swift gained 453 yards with three touchdowns and 24 catches on 73 touches over his final six games. He finished the year ranked 21st in running back scoring (191.10) in PPR formats, with three weeks of success (26.50, 21.10, and 27.70 fantasy points). The Lions only had him on the field for 34.7% of their plays in 2022, which invites a higher ceiling with a higher role and a healthy season. The Eagles running backs had only 48 catches for 262 yards and no catches on 61 targets last season. Philadelphia should give the most touches in Week 1, but Swift doesn’t appear to have upside in scoring in close or catching many balls. To score 22.00 fantasy points, he needs a touchdown with more than 100 combined yards and about five catches. A three-back rotation isn’t his friend. Kenneth Gainwell With the Eagles’ abandoning the running back position in the passing game last season, Gainwell finished with 409 combined yards with four touchdowns and 23 catches. His only fantasy game of value (12/112/1 with one catch for nine yards) came in the first round of the postseason. There has been positive talk about Gainwell over the summer, but his role/opportunity is unclear. More of a gamble while needing 16.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to pay off. A.J. Brown The Eagles threw the ball 81 more times than I expected to their wide receivers in 2022, giving Brown a much better opportunity. He finished with career-highs in catches (88), receiving yards (1,496), and targets (145) while scoring 11 touchdowns and gaining an impressive 17.0 yards per catch. Brown gained 20 or more yards on 26.1% of his catches. His best output came in five games (10/155, 6/156/3, 8/119/2, 9/181, and 6/103). He averaged 8.5 targets last year. Based on his salary and outcomes in 2022, Brown would have filled his salary bucket 20% of the time over his 20 games played. Wide receivers had 207 catches for 2,688 yards and 15 touchdowns on 338 targets against New England in 2022. I don’t expect a 30.00 fantasy game, so I’ll look for upside elsewhere. DeVonta Smith Last year, Smith saw his opportunity grow by over 30%, leading to an exceptional year (95/1,196/7 on 136 targets). He caught 69.9% of his chances while being an impact player from Week 15 to Week 17 (5/126, 8/113/2, and 9/115) when fantasy championships were on the line. Smith gained more than 100 yards in three other matchups (8/169/1, 5/102/1, and 7/100). His season started with a goose egg on four targets, with emptiness in three other contests (3/17, 5/23, 2/22, and 2/36). Over his final 12 starts (including the postseason), Smith had 70 catches for 951 yards and six touchdowns on 105 targets. Smith needs about 29.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to finish as an edge play in Week 1. He reached that threshold twice (30.90 and 31.30 – 10% of the time) last season. I expect more big plays in
2023 New England Patriots Outlook
2023 New England Patriots Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player
2023 New England Patriots Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 New England Patriots Outlook.
— PROJECTIONS —
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE PATRIOTS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook
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Fantasy Football Late-Round RB Sleepers
Running backs remain the most important players in a fantasy football lineup. Targeting fantasy football late-round RB sleepers is an excellent strategy for attacking that all-important depth. Along with identifying 2022’s deep sleepers and fantasy football breakouts, loading up on
Along with identifying 2022’s deep sleepers and fantasy football breakouts, loading up on late-round RB sleepers can make all the difference between drafting a contender and a championship-winning roster.
Using FFWC high-stakes ADP, here are the late-round RB sleepers to draft in 2022.
Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots) ADP 94 (RB36) – Subscribing to the caveat of never trusting Bill Belichick, Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the camp standouts. The sophomore running back has been taking first-team reps and has stood out as a receiver. Meanwhile, James White has no timetable for a return, freeing up those valuable targets for Stevenson. NBC’s Peter King thinks Stevenson will wrestle away RB1 duties from Damien Harris by mid-season. Harris is in the final year of his rookie deal and Belichick isn’t one to pay lucrative extensions when he has a cheaper replacement in-house. In the seven games last season that Stevenson got double-digit carries, he averaged 12.3 PPR points per game. Stevenson’s ADP is already on the rise but he’s still a solid value in the 9th round.
Who else is on Jody’s late-round RB sleepers list?
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