Mid-Round Running Backs to Target
Reading between the tea leaves is a big part of having success in fantasy sports. Understanding the direction of a player, either by his natural progression or his status coming off an injury, can lead to finding a potential value
And speaking of strategy, the FullTime Fantasy Draft Kit is loaded with exclusive, league-winning tips and advice to help you DOMINATE YOUR LEAGUE! This includes our No.1 rankings, sleepers, fades, and much more!
Identifying Mid-Round Value
In the early draft season, there are too many values at different positions in fantasy football. This creates almost a false ADP for someone jumping into drafts in August. The flow of players in June and July, before the general public catches up with drafting inventory, is built on different buying opportunities.
As training camp news flows and players start getting positive reviews, the ADPs begin to change. This tightens up the player pool and makes it more challenging to execute an early draft plan. Once this happens, the better drafters will make tradeoffs at specific points. This is to secure the most critical players for their fantasy team.
This thought process brings me to the running back options after the first 17 or 18 backs come over the table. Typically, in the BestBall formats that I have been drafting, the running backs come off in this order midway through the fifth round:
- Kenneth Walker
- Alexander Mattison
- Miles Sanders
- Cam Akers
- J.K. Dobbins
- Dameon Pierce
- David Montgomery
- D’Andre Swift
- Javonte Williams
- James Conner
- Rachaad White
- James Cook
- Isiah Pacheco
Running Backs to Target
Behind each player’s name is a skill set and a story, requiring the casual drafter to understand before deciding who to select. These running back aren’t equal, and a couple will become difference-makers in 2023. Here’s my quick back story on each player.
Kenneth Walker – Excellent rookie season showcasing explosive runs and scoring. He struggled in pass protection, and Seattle brought in competition to play on passing downs. In addition, Walker had a slight groin issue in mid-August that is progressing.
Alexander Mattison – Tempting player based on him expected to start for a high-scoring offense and his success at times as a fill-in for Dalvin Cook. He gained 3.7 yards on his last 208 rushing attempts and 6.8 yards per catch over 47 receptions. With Cook in New York, Mattison has a higher chance of being a wasted pick in the fifth round than an impact player. If he struggles out the gate…
WHO ARE THE TOP MID-ROUND RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET ON YOUR DRAFT DAY?
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
A Strategy Guide for Drafting RBs
A Strategy Guide for Drafting RBs Opportunity reigns supreme in fantasy football. However, no position is as susceptible to nagging injuries as much as the running back. That means backup running backs with high-touch upside should be on every drafter’s radar. A Strategy Guide for Drafting RBs explores the statistical target points of these handcuff RB targets and where to target them in your draft. Oftentimes we see these under-the-radar backups become fantasy football breakouts when given the chance to start. After filling out your starting lineup, these are the potential difference-makers you want to target in the mid-to-late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. This Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: RB will help you identify those highly coveted backup running backs to target in 2023. Running Backs 25 to 36 Point Totals (2019 – 2022) RB3/Flex: Rostering a third productive running back in fantasy football can be gold if you have strength in your other positions. An excellent third option will help you in bye weeks. Also, that player could also be serviceable at the flex position. The third set of 12 running backs from 2022 averaged 156.78 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 9.80 points per week. That fell in line with the previous three seasons (154.61, 151.06, and 152.82). Typically, a tier of 12 backs will hold about a 60-point edge each year over the next grouping. In 2022, the RB1s averaged 282.90 fantasy points in PPR formats, with the top four players (341.88) carrying the load. The RB2s scored between 227.40 and 179.70 fantasy points. The RB3s averaged 156.78 fantasy points. The 60-point gaps don’t sound like much, but it adds up throughout a fantasy season. Making the postseason will be challenging if a roster is weak at two positions. Fantasy Point Totals RB3 Observations It is imperative to draft some upside running backs on your team, but they will hurt you if you are forced to play them due to an injury to one of your top options if they are not getting regular playing time. Fantasy football is a simple game. Most of the action will happen inside the first 12 rounds of drafts in 12-team leagues. Every fantasy team should have their starting lineup after eight or nine rounds. Therefore, their decisions from rounds nine to 12 will be critical. Especially if your team has a weakness at a position. In 12-team PPR leagues, a top roster must score close to 2,050 fantasy points over a 14-week schedule (to be in the playoff hunt. A top team could score more than 2,200 points. A fair goal from your starting quarterback and first two running backs would be to score 55 fantasy points (QB – 23+ points, RB1 – 18+ points, and RB2 – 14+ points). A top RB, a solid RB2, and a mid-tier quarterback should deliver that score from an early-draft position. By selecting later in the draft, an elite quarterback with two-second level running backs may deliver a similar score. It then would come down to the wide receiver and tight end positions to reach your target number to draft a competitive team. After looking over each group of running backs, it is interesting to see how close the final scores are each year when considering the vast changes in playing time and the high rate of injuries at the position. The player pool changes yearly, creating different tiers at each starting roster position. The key is gaining an edge whenever possible. Also, identifying when there is an apparent drop-off in talent at each position using a tiered cheatsheet. Running Back 37 to 48 Point Totals (2019 – 2022) The fourth group of 12 running backs averaged 7.10 fantasy points in PPR leagues in 2022, making it difficult to time if forced to slide them into their starting lineup. When building your running back depth on draft day, the first goal is finding an edge at RB1. This player needs to be a three-down back with value in rushing, receiving, and touchdowns. If the available options don’t meet these qualifications, a drafter must gain an edge at another position. Another great way to prepare to DOMINATE your draft is using FullTime Fantasy’s Mock Draft Simulator. The most successful fantasy managers will make these evaluations before draft day once they know their draft position. The goal is to determine the best start for a fantasy team based on the current draft flow or ADPs. The more thought a drafter does before the draft, the better chance of making better decisions when on the clock on draft day. It is also important not to be naïve when identifying an upside player. A ton of information is written in the fantasy football market, and the fantasy community will come to the same conclusion with breakout-type players. In some cases, there may only be one running back viewed as a difference-maker going early in the second round. If drafting late in the first round, the data points to a “targeted back” being available with your second pick. This deduction leads to looking at the best options at other positions with their first selection while most likely settling in at the wide receiver position unless a top running back with three-down ability slides in the draft. After reviewing the best options at wide receiver, the player pool may dictate multiple players of similar value. When seeing this develop, a fantasy manager must be open to moving the “targeted back” up to the first round to avoid being sniped by another sharp drafter. By doing this, a fantasy manager accepts the closeness in value at the wide receiver position while knowing there may be a chance their number one wide receiver option may still slide to them in the second round. Often late in the draft season, the edge players with upside will see their draft value rise. However, it’s essential to consider each player’s real upside. Be careful not to overvalue players, where you draft
Top Five Running Back Sleepers
Top Five Running Back Sleepers There are some strategies that advocate targeting running backs early and often. However, many other #ZERORB drafters bypass early RBs altogether. Regardless of your approach, running backs remain a pivotal focus in fantasy football. By
Top Five Running Back Sleepers
There are some strategies that advocate targeting running backs early and often. However, many other #ZERORB drafters bypass early RBs altogether. Regardless of your approach, running backs remain a pivotal focus in fantasy football.
By in large, top-tier running backs will accumulate the most points in fantasy lineups. That makes them an integral part of each and every lineup. Knowing which mid-to-late-round running back sleepers to target can make all the difference between a middling roster and a real championship contender.
Here are the Top Five Running Back Sleepers to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.
Breaking Down The Field
I researched the running back outcomes in 2022 to keep the same theme with the quarterback and wide receiver week-to-week data. Over 18 weeks, running backs scored 30 fantasy points or more in PPR formats in 26 games. Four of these scores reach the 40-point mark (Joe Mixon – 55.10, Alvin Kamara – 42.80, Christian McCaffrey – 40.60, and Josh Jacobs – 48.30). Austin Ekeler (4) and Josh Jacobs (4) posted the most impact games.
The top 12 running backs posted 17 of the 26 games with more than 30 fantasy points, compared to five by RB2s. Backs scored between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points 107 times, with RB1s accounting for 51 of those showings. They finished with a 106:67 boom or bust ratio (15 fantasy points or more/fewer than 10.00 fantasy points). The second 12 running backs had a much weaker ratio (58:100).
Austin Ekeler scores 20 or more fantasy points in nine games, giving him a 52.9% win rate in his impact ratio. Christian McCaffrey (8) and Derrick Henry (8) finished tied for second in this area.
The highest floor ratio (76.5) went to Christian McCaffery (13 games), followed by Austin Ekeler (12) and Saquan Barkley (12), then Derrick Henry (10) and Nick Chubb (10).
After Week 10, only three back scores ranking outside the top 38 scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game (Brian Robinson – 20.50, JaMycal Hasty – 20.50, and Zack Moss – 21.10).
Here’s a look at the top 24 running backs from last season with their highlighted week-to-week scores…
WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE RUNNING BACK SLEEPERS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?
USE CODE: SAVE20 on the 6-month package to get TWO MONTHS FREE!
DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
Fantasy Football: Deal or No Deal Alvin Kamara
Fantasy Football: Deal or No Deal Alvin Kamara The Saints’ offense has had many changes in the offseason. It started with a $150 million deal for four years in March for Derek Carr. The ball finally dropped on Alvin Kamara’s suspension (three games). That created a potential buying opportunity for him in early August as the fantasy market tries to evaluate his “new value” with Jamaal Williams and Kareen Hunt added to the backfield. Now it’s time for Fantasy Football: Deal or No Deal Alvin Kamara. First, New Orleans has the foundation of being much better at passing the ball if Michael Thomas can deliver 80% of his previous self and Chris Olave delivers on his expectations. Over the two last seasons, the Saints threw the ball only 504 and 512 times due to Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Andy Dalton starting at quarterback in the post-Drew Brees era. In addition, they played without their star wideout (Thomas) over this span. In my first run of the projections in June, I had Kamara suspended for 10 games. Once he settled his court case, I lowered his missed time to six games. The NFL decided on three weeks for his off-the-field incident. That meant Kamara was a deal in most early drafts if he stays healthy. Looking back at the Saints’ offensive profile, the running back position in New Orleans’ offense has been active for several years, especially with Brees behind center. Here’s a look at their running back production over the past three seasons: The Saints’ defense ranked in the top 10 in points and yards allowed from 2020 to 2022, leading to a more ball-controlled offense and bottom-tier ranking in pass attempts. Despite the regression, their backs still had 113, 88, and 85 catches over this span, averaging 7.46 targets per game. They caught 30, 31, and 25 % of the team’s completions over the previous three seasons. In the first run of the 2023 fantasy football projections, I didn’t see enough strength in the Saints’ other backs to support their previous value in catches. My starting point was 18% of the team’s completions (about 60 catches), well below their previous opportunity. This season, I have New Orleans throwing the ball 592 times with two active wideouts (Chris Olave and Michael Thomas). Despite the increase in pass attempts and a better overall offense, I only have the Saints’ backs catching 77 passes, which looks out of line (too low). Potentially Adding Kareem Hunt Here’s a look at the Saints’ backfield if they signed Kareem Hunt: Over the first three weeks, Williams and Hunt would see almost all of New Orleans’s running back action. Hunt assumes the Kamara slot in the offense. That points to about a third of the carries and the majority of snaps on passing downs. Williams should get the first crack at goal-line chances in the run game. Once Kamara returns, I expect him to see about 60% of the early down action and most of the chances on passing downs. Ideally, Kamara would average between three to four catches with about 15 rushing attempts. However, I feel I have him unprojected in catches, leaving more upside to his outlook. I view Kamara as a fifth-round back who is getting drafted late in the seventh round. Since his suspension, he still ranks 30th at running back in PPR formats. Kamara should be a mid-tier RB2, and I have no problem if someone drafts at the 18th running back. Over his 88 career games, he averaged 4.9 catches for 42.6 yards and 0.25 touchdowns or 10.66 fantasy points in PPR formats. Based on this alone, Kamara would have ranked 22nd in fantasy scoring in 2022. As far as Hunt, he should be a natural handcuff to Kamara while having a better career body of work than Jamaal Williams. I have enough confidence in Hunt to use him as a cheat RB2 on a WR-strong team over the first three weeks. The bottom line with the Saints’ offense is that they will be much better than in 2022 if their key offensive personnel stay healthy. The running back position should push close to 100 catches. Also, I need to address this shortfall in their projections next week. In 2016, Le’Veon Bell sat out the first three games but still helped fantasy teams win their league and overall championships. Finally, in the high-stakes market, the sharp drafters tend to focus on pass-catching backs late. Kamara should be shining brightly in PPR formats, and he almost falls into the free category in early August. Also, If you have time to prepare, make sure you mock in our Mock Draft World Championships. No better way to practice for the real thing. NEW THIS YEAR: FullTime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Mock Drafts in our contest! Head to MockDraftNow.com and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email. How it Works: First, draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Secondly, if you like it, enter it into the best-ball contest. Just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard! Finally, the winner gets to choose from the fantastic prizes below. Everyone’s first team is free! CLICK HERE. Lastly, if you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! Are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2023 Fantasy Football World Championships.