Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report
Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by
The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by Jalen Hurts (28.05). The best option was Gardner Minshew (34.15), thanks to two surprising touchdowns and a pair of long touchdowns. My go-to low-value guy was Tyrod Taylor (24.45), who ranked seventh for the week. The theme for the week was QB/TE hookups while offering different levels of investment at DraftKings:
- Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce – 76.76 ($16,300 = 4.71 X)
- Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews – 60.75 ($13,300 = 4.67 X)
- Tyrod Taylor/Darren Waller – 47.25 ($10,100 = 4.77 X)
The Giants combo could have been the best pairing if the elite options at running back and wide receiver delivered elite games.
Here’s a look at the top five scoring quarterbacks after seven weeks:
- Josh Allen (183.85)
- Jalen Hurts (180.45)
- Patrick Mahomes (176.25)
- Lamar Jackson (170.80)
- Justin Herbert (145.60 – one fewer game)
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Patrick Mahomes (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)
A Trip to Bountiful (Denver) bodes well for Mahomes to have another elite game. He rates as the top quarterback in the land again in Week 8 after posting his best game (453/4) of the year, thanks to a season-high in catches of 20 yards or more (6), two of which reach the forty-yard mark (46 and 53). Mahomes has a floor of 39 pass attempts in five of his seven starts. Last year, he had two high-floor games (349/3 and 336/3) vs. the Broncos, but Mahomes failed to produce a winning outcome against them in Week 6 (337/1).
Denver has the third-worst defense against quarterbacks (23.64 FPPG), with Miami (375/5) and Chicago (360/4) posting impact games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with four teams passing for at least 299 yards. The Broncos have tightened up their wide receiver defense over the last three matchups (NYJ – 6/87, KC – 9/103/1, and GB – 10/98/2), but tight ends produced winning stats in four games (7/89/1, 10/111/2, 7/81, and 11/138) this season.
The Chiefs’ defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns or 21 points in a game this year, so the Broncos’ lack of offense may lead to more running back action in this matchup. I’m a fan of offenses trending up, especially when having a favorable matchup the following week. Mahomes should have a floor of 300 passing yards and three scores, but he needs a few more yards and a fourth score to fill his salary bucket. Rinse and repeat seems to be the story here. Keep an open mind about Jerick McKinnon (on the field for a season-high 37% of the Chiefs’ snaps in Week 7) possibly finding his way onto the winning ticket in this matchup.
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Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report
Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa
Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.
Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.
The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)
Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.
Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups.
Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
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Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report
Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in
For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in quarterback scoring (119.25 fantasy points). Josh Allen (32.35), Jalen Hurts (31.35), and Sam Howell (30.30) filled out the quarterback superfecta last week. In addition, Jared Goff (29.90), Desmond Ridder (29.45), and Brock Purdy (28.60) played at a high level.
Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after five games based on scoring average:
- Josh Allen (138.35)
- Justin Herbert (107.80 – four games)
- Jalen Hurts (126.70)
- Kirk Cousins (122.10)
- Tua Tagovailoa (120.80).
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)
Allen had a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games, but his running output (20/120/3) is well behind his previous two years (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). His two bright spots after five games are his completion rate (73.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.0), both career-best. Over the last two weeks, he gained 710 combined yards with eight touchdowns.
The Giants are league-average defending quarterbacks (19.10 FPPG), with two teams (SF – 310/2 and MIA – 308/2) passing for more than 300 yards. New York allowed at least three touchdowns in all five games. Offenses scored 18 touchdowns and nine field goals on 52 possessions (30.6 points per game). Their defense will give up rushing touchdowns (9). Field position due to turnovers (8) has favored their opponents.
Buffalo is a 15-point favorite, suggesting more run by the Bills, especially in the second half. Allen will get his touchdowns but needs 33.00 fantasy points to…
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB Before drafting each fantasy football season, I need to be in tune with the player pool. I then must understand the drop-downs at each position within fantasy drafts. That’s the key that drives my 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB. There are all different kinds of fantasy football leagues across the country. For the casual player, most formats are trading with a playoff system at the end of the year. In most cases, the best team doesn’t necessarily win each season. The goal is to draft a team with enough depth and upside to compete for the league title. Each drafter will be dealt a different hand as they will pick from various draft slots. Without a top draft selection, most fantasy managers will have to be creative in gaining edges at different positions to compete for a league or an overall title. Quarterback Target Points Before you sit at the draft table, one of the first steps is understanding what you need out of every position to be a contender. So, I will go through every position on a fantasy roster and give you the average player stats to help you see what it takes to have an edge at each lineup slot. The data listed is for 12-team leagues using the criteria below. This scoring system awards four points for quarterback passing touchdowns with 0.05 points for each passing yard. Each rushing and receiving yard is worth 0.10 points. Each reception is worth one point. Each rushing or receiving touchdown is worth six points. The tables below show the average scores for the top 12 options at each position over the last four seasons. The first part of the equation is learning the gaps and edges of each position. Here are the average position scores for all 11 starting roster slots in the Fantasy Football World Championships over the last four seasons: These scores can be used as targets for each position. A winning team must have an edge at multiple starting lineup slots to win their league. Their roster needs depth, along with success managing their team through bye weeks and injuries. The goal in this format is to score more than 145 fantasy points per week. If you do this, you should finish in the top four in your league with a chance to win a championship. However, the best teams in this competition will average more than 165 points. The medium scoring for all 11 roster slots in the World Championship over the previous six seasons came to 137.41 (2017), 144.60 (2018), 144.82 (2019), 149.09 (2020), 149.08 (2021), and 146.06 (2022). There has been a spike in rushing touchdowns in 2021 (532) and 2022 (505) after progressing higher from 2016 to 20219 (443, 380, 439, and 447). The change in replay rules led to many more players being downed inside the two-yard line on passing plays. That led to more scoring chances in close on the ground. In addition, there has been an influx of rushing quarterbacks over the past five seasons. The success of mobile quarterbacks in the run game also led to a rise in overall yards per rush in 2018 (4.42), 2019 (4.32), 2020 (4.41), 2021 (4.33), and 2022 (4.46). The final total in passing touchdowns reached an all-time high in 2020 (871). They fell dramatically in 2022 (750) due to the weakest backend quarterback pool over the last 11 years. Here’s a look at the best quarterback options over the previous four seasons: In 2022, the average quarterback in the NFL passed for 234.38 yards per game with 21.41 completions on 33.34 pass attempts. That also resulted in 1.38 touchdowns and 0.77 interceptions. These stats translate into under 19.22 fantasy points per game in leagues that award four points for each passing touchdown and 0.05 for each yard passing. The overall number would be slightly higher as most quarterbacks gain some value with their rushing production. The top 12 quarterbacks over the last four years averaged between 22.42 and 25.32 fantasy points per game. 2017 delivered the lowest output (20.94) over the past 11 years. Impact of Rushing Production In 2020, the quarterback position was front-loaded. That season, six quarterbacks scored 419 fantasy points or more. Fifteen quarterbacks finished with over 300 fantasy points. Josh Allen led the way with 457.60 fantasy points. The average score (25.32) for the top 12 quarterbacks was the highest in the history of fantasy football. The top end of the quarterback pool remained strong in 2021 and 2022. That resulted in four players each season scoring at least 410 fantasy points. Over 17 games last season, the average top-12 quarterback production delivered 376.70 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Patrick Mahomes (482.30 fantasy points) knocked Josh Allen (457.35) off the top quarterback-scoring podium. But Allen has been the best quarterback in the NFL from 2020 to 2022 in fantasy scoring. The quarterback position is certainly dynamic. But it is one where a weaker quarterback can match a top quarterback over short periods in league championship rounds. This is why many drafters in this type of format will wait to draft a quarterback. By doing this, they will likely be more potent at other starting roster slots. I’ve never been a good matchup manager at the quarterback position, leading me to draft a more reliable quarterback and ride him out throughout the season. Of all the positions on a fantasy team, the quarterback position will offer the most points in the free-agent pool. In addition, a back-end quarterback could put up 20-plus fantasy points in any given week, pointing to another reason to wait on the QB position. A team that punts the quarterback position will give up three to 10 fantasy points per week to the top four teams in the league. I know the goal for someone that waits on the quarterback position is to find the next breakout player. In this strategy, it is vital
Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values
Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values No position is as important in fantasy football as the quarterback. In non-Superflex leagues, QBs tend to be available quite late. However, the top-tier signal-callers can still command a hefty price on draft day. Knowing
Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values
No position is as important in fantasy football as the quarterback. In non-Superflex leagues, QBs tend to be available quite late. However, the top-tier signal-callers can still command a hefty price on draft day.
Knowing how to appropriately value quarterbacks can be a huge edge on draft day. Targeting the best value on the board while loading up on skill position depth is a surefire way to assemble a championship squad.
Here are the top five fantasy quarterback values to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.
What We Learned in 2022
In 2022, in four-point passing touchdown leagues, Patrick Mahomes (7), Josh Allen (7), and Jalen Hurts (8) scored 30 fantasy points or more in their 48 starts. The top 12 quarterbacks posted 40 of the possible 52 impact games, with Joe Burrow (4) and Daniel Jones (3) ranking third and fourth. There were eight quarterback scores higher than 40 fantasy points – Josh Allen (40.40), Joe Burrow (44.05), Tom Brady (42.00), Justin Fields (43.95 and 42.05), Tua Tagovailoa (45.55), and Lamar Jackson (45.80 and 42.60).
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (no game in Week 17) scored 20 or more fantasy points in 30 of their 33 starts, giving them a high floor in 90.9% of their starts. Jalen Hurts finished with the highest impact ratio (53.3% – he scored more than 30 fantasy points in eight of his 15 matchups).
Eight quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 29.99 fantasy points in at least eight games. Kirk Cousins led the way with nine, but he posted only one impact game (39.00). Derek Carr was the lowest ranking (16th) in this grouping.
Joe Burrow had a 20-point floor in 75.0% of his 16 starts (canceled game in Week 17) while playing without his top two wideouts for the better part of six games.
Eighty-three of the 173 quarterback scores (48%) between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points came from the top 12 ranked quarterbacks.
Here’s a look at the data for the top 24 quarterbacks in 2022…
WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE VALUE QBS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?
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2022 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: QB
The 2022 quarterback group seems as deep as ever. This will lead to a lot of waiting to address the most important position. FullTime Fantasy’s 2022 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: QB tools can help give you a significant edge on draft day. Strength of schedule is an important tool in the arsenal of well-prepared fantasy football drafters. By knowing what players have easier schedules you’ll be able to make the hard decisions between multiple starters. It can be particularly useful in best ball, where the fantasy playoff slate is crucial. Here is the 2022 fantasy strength of schedule for QBs, with analysis on how it will impact fantasy football this season. Charts show average fantasy points allowed to QBs in 2021 Easiest QB Schedule Daniel Jones (New York Giants) – 2022 is a pivotal year for Jones. New York’s new regime declined the embattled signal caller’s option so he’s set to enter free agency next spring. If Jones is ever going to make it, now is the time. In addition to a solid supporting cast, the Giants have the league’s easiest schedule for a quarterback. Of course, Jones has not proven he can stay healthy, nor has he been a consistent NFL or fantasy option. New York’s porous offense line also doesn’t build confidence. Still. Jones has plus rushing ability and some fantasy upside but his value should be restricted to mediocre QB2 in Superflex formats. Jones and the Giants also boast the league’s easiest QB schedule in the playoff Weeks 14-17 for those of you in best-ball leagues. Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Undoubtedly, Lawrence’s rookie campaign was a huge disappointment, which will make a lot of drafters avoid the sophomore signal caller. A lot of those first-year struggles can be attributed to the disastrous decision to hire Urban Meyer. With Meyer exiled and Doug Pederson now in town, Lawrence and the revamped Jaguars’ offense are looking up. Jacksonville spent big bringing in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. While we can’t project a rejuvenated Lawrence to compete for QB1 numbers, there’s enough potential there that we’re interested in him as a weekly streamer or solid QB2. Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) – The Eagles and most of the fantasy world are all in on Hurts. In terms of pure fantasy points per game, Hurst was a top-10 option in 2021 and things should only get better in 2022. In addition to the shocking draft-day trade for A.J. Brown, Hurts also gets the third-easiest QB schedule. The slate looks particularly appealing down the stretch as the Eagles only face one team that ranked in the top-10 a year ago after the club’s Week 7 bye. There are still some experts skeptical of Hurts, but 2022 sets up to be a top-5 overall season. Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – Wilson was s top-5 fantasy quarterback in both 2019 and 2020 before missing four games in 2021. Now, he finds himself on a contending roster with a deep and talented supporting cast and elite offensive line. Additionally, Wilson should feast off of a schedule ranked 4th for quarterbacks and 5th in the playoffs (14-17). Wilson has worked all offseason with his new wideouts, who have a ton of potential. Jerry Jeudy is an elite route runner, while Courtland Sutton has the tools to excel outside. Regularly drafted outside of the top-10 in early ADP, Wilson looks poised to rebound in a big way. Jameis Winston (New Orleans Saints) – There are major red flags on Winston as a viable quarterback. Despite the nifty 14-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2021, Winston had the lowest fantasy points per game number of his career. He also was held under 200 passing yards in five of his seven starts. Nine of those 13 TD tosses came in two games. Not to mention, Winston is also recovering from a torn ACL. Losing Sean Payton is also a major concern, but the Saints do have some intriguing weapons. Michael Thomas is back running routes and the addition of Jarvis Landry and first-round rookie Chris Olave gives New Orleans a deep and talented receiving corps. A top-5 schedule also awaits Winston, but fantasy drafters would be wise to approach with extreme caution. Most Difficult Schedules Zach Wilson (New York Jets) – No truth to the rumors that Wilson spent the offseason hiding out from Steve Stifler, but he remains a polarizing prospect. Accuracy was a big concern in Year One and will need to improve in a hurry for Wison’s career to stay (get) on track. Fortunately, there is some good news. The Jets have compiled some intriguing young skill position talent to surround Wilson. Elijah Moore is a favorite of the community and the 2022 NFL Draft brought even more reinforcements. The Jets nabbed Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, but they’ll need Wilson to play far better. Unfortunately, that may be difficult in 2022 as Wilson faces the league’s toughest QB schedule. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) – Clearly we’re not fading Lamar Jackson this year. He’s simply got too much upside. However, it will be interesting to see how the muscle Jackson reportedly added this offseason affects his game. 2022 is also a contract season for Jackson, who is poised to command the highest quarterback contract in the NFL next year. Overall, the Ravens have the second most difficult schedule for their quarterbacks. In addition to six games against the tough AFC North foes, Jackson will face seven opponents that allowed 17 or fewer fantasy points to the position last season. Jackson is an obvious QB1 but being wary of a tough schedule might help undecided fantasy managers choose between Jackson or players with an easier slate. Like Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, or even Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) – Speaking of elite passers with a tough slate, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will have to revamp the Kanas City offense without Tyreek Hill. Mahomes should be fine the schedule is another reason to be wary. Mahomes is expected to be more of a dink-and-dunk passer in 2022. The Chiefs also have a
FFWC Target Points for QBs: Watson To Dethrone Mahomes!
The FFWC Target Points series is the bread and butter information you need to tackle proper roster construction and is brought by Fantasy guru Shawn Childs!
FFWC Target Points: New Metric Declares QBs Less Fantasy Relevant
Senior Fantasy Football Expert Shawn Childs is a statistical guru. Today he provides an in-depth breakdown of quarterbacks from the past and projections for the 2018 season to help you gain an edge at one of the most key positions in the NFL!