Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB Before drafting each fantasy football season, I need to be in tune with the player pool. I then must understand the drop-downs at each position within fantasy drafts. That’s the key that drives my 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB. There are all different kinds of fantasy football leagues across the country. For the casual player, most formats are trading with a playoff system at the end of the year. In most cases, the best team doesn’t necessarily win each season. The goal is to draft a team with enough depth and upside to compete for the league title. Each drafter will be dealt a different hand as they will pick from various draft slots. Without a top draft selection, most fantasy managers will have to be creative in gaining edges at different positions to compete for a league or an overall title. Quarterback Target Points Before you sit at the draft table, one of the first steps is understanding what you need out of every position to be a contender. So, I will go through every position on a fantasy roster and give you the average player stats to help you see what it takes to have an edge at each lineup slot. The data listed is for 12-team leagues using the criteria below. This scoring system awards four points for quarterback passing touchdowns with 0.05 points for each passing yard. Each rushing and receiving yard is worth 0.10 points. Each reception is worth one point. Each rushing or receiving touchdown is worth six points. The tables below show the average scores for the top 12 options at each position over the last four seasons. The first part of the equation is learning the gaps and edges of each position. Here are the average position scores for all 11 starting roster slots in the Fantasy Football World Championships over the last four seasons: These scores can be used as targets for each position. A winning team must have an edge at multiple starting lineup slots to win their league. Their roster needs depth, along with success managing their team through bye weeks and injuries. The goal in this format is to score more than 145 fantasy points per week. If you do this, you should finish in the top four in your league with a chance to win a championship. However, the best teams in this competition will average more than 165 points. The medium scoring for all 11 roster slots in the World Championship over the previous six seasons came to 137.41 (2017), 144.60 (2018), 144.82 (2019), 149.09 (2020), 149.08 (2021), and 146.06 (2022). There has been a spike in rushing touchdowns in 2021 (532) and 2022 (505) after progressing higher from 2016 to 20219 (443, 380, 439, and 447). The change in replay rules led to many more players being downed inside the two-yard line on passing plays. That led to more scoring chances in close on the ground. In addition, there has been an influx of rushing quarterbacks over the past five seasons. The success of mobile quarterbacks in the run game also led to a rise in overall yards per rush in 2018 (4.42), 2019 (4.32), 2020 (4.41), 2021 (4.33), and 2022 (4.46). The final total in passing touchdowns reached an all-time high in 2020 (871). They fell dramatically in 2022 (750) due to the weakest backend quarterback pool over the last 11 years. Here’s a look at the best quarterback options over the previous four seasons: In 2022, the average quarterback in the NFL passed for 234.38 yards per game with 21.41 completions on 33.34 pass attempts. That also resulted in 1.38 touchdowns and 0.77 interceptions. These stats translate into under 19.22 fantasy points per game in leagues that award four points for each passing touchdown and 0.05 for each yard passing. The overall number would be slightly higher as most quarterbacks gain some value with their rushing production. The top 12 quarterbacks over the last four years averaged between 22.42 and 25.32 fantasy points per game. 2017 delivered the lowest output (20.94) over the past 11 years. Impact of Rushing Production In 2020, the quarterback position was front-loaded. That season, six quarterbacks scored 419 fantasy points or more. Fifteen quarterbacks finished with over 300 fantasy points. Josh Allen led the way with 457.60 fantasy points. The average score (25.32) for the top 12 quarterbacks was the highest in the history of fantasy football. The top end of the quarterback pool remained strong in 2021 and 2022. That resulted in four players each season scoring at least 410 fantasy points. Over 17 games last season, the average top-12 quarterback production delivered 376.70 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Patrick Mahomes (482.30 fantasy points) knocked Josh Allen (457.35) off the top quarterback-scoring podium. But Allen has been the best quarterback in the NFL from 2020 to 2022 in fantasy scoring. The quarterback position is certainly dynamic. But it is one where a weaker quarterback can match a top quarterback over short periods in league championship rounds. This is why many drafters in this type of format will wait to draft a quarterback. By doing this, they will likely be more potent at other starting roster slots. I’ve never been a good matchup manager at the quarterback position, leading me to draft a more reliable quarterback and ride him out throughout the season. Of all the positions on a fantasy team, the quarterback position will offer the most points in the free-agent pool. In addition, a back-end quarterback could put up 20-plus fantasy points in any given week, pointing to another reason to wait on the QB position. A team that punts the quarterback position will give up three to 10 fantasy points per week to the top four teams in the league. I know the goal for someone that waits on the quarterback position is to find the next breakout player. In this strategy, it is vital
Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values
Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values No position is as important in fantasy football as the quarterback. In non-Superflex leagues, QBs tend to be available quite late. However, the top-tier signal-callers can still command a hefty price on draft day. Knowing
Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values
No position is as important in fantasy football as the quarterback. In non-Superflex leagues, QBs tend to be available quite late. However, the top-tier signal-callers can still command a hefty price on draft day.
Knowing how to appropriately value quarterbacks can be a huge edge on draft day. Targeting the best value on the board while loading up on skill position depth is a surefire way to assemble a championship squad.
Here are the top five fantasy quarterback values to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.
What We Learned in 2022
In 2022, in four-point passing touchdown leagues, Patrick Mahomes (7), Josh Allen (7), and Jalen Hurts (8) scored 30 fantasy points or more in their 48 starts. The top 12 quarterbacks posted 40 of the possible 52 impact games, with Joe Burrow (4) and Daniel Jones (3) ranking third and fourth. There were eight quarterback scores higher than 40 fantasy points – Josh Allen (40.40), Joe Burrow (44.05), Tom Brady (42.00), Justin Fields (43.95 and 42.05), Tua Tagovailoa (45.55), and Lamar Jackson (45.80 and 42.60).
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (no game in Week 17) scored 20 or more fantasy points in 30 of their 33 starts, giving them a high floor in 90.9% of their starts. Jalen Hurts finished with the highest impact ratio (53.3% – he scored more than 30 fantasy points in eight of his 15 matchups).
Eight quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 29.99 fantasy points in at least eight games. Kirk Cousins led the way with nine, but he posted only one impact game (39.00). Derek Carr was the lowest ranking (16th) in this grouping.
Joe Burrow had a 20-point floor in 75.0% of his 16 starts (canceled game in Week 17) while playing without his top two wideouts for the better part of six games.
Eighty-three of the 173 quarterback scores (48%) between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points came from the top 12 ranked quarterbacks.
Here’s a look at the data for the top 24 quarterbacks in 2022…
WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE VALUE QBS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?
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2023 Free Agent Rankings: Quarterbacks
As you know, there is no real off-season for fantasy football fanatics. While the NFL playoffs are still in progress, it’s never a bad idea to be prepared for the next season. FullTime Fantasy‘s 2023 Free Agent Rankings: Quarterbacks previews the top veteran signal callers available this spring. Overall, there isn’t a lot of depth available at the NFL’s most important position. This free agent class is top-heavy but the uninspiring incoming rookie class could make for some big-money deals. Starters PLAYER TEAM AGE YDS TD INT Lamar Jackson BAL 26 2242 17 7 Tom Brady TB 46 4694 25 9 Geno Smith SEA 32 4282 30 11 Daniel Jones NYG 26 3205 15 5 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 28 2437 10 8 Lamar Jackson – Jackson is clearly the preeminent free-agent quarterback. Just now entering his prime, Jackson is one of the elite dual-threat options in the NFL. However, the Ravens have unsuccessfully tried to engage Jackson for some time. Were he to hit the open market, Jackson could command north of $40 million annually. However, the most likely outcome is that Baltimore franchise tags their quarterback. This could lead to a holdout situation, but only time will tell. Tom Brady – Even at 46, Brady will attract plenty of suitors. Brady’s touchdown numbers dipped significantly in 2022. However, an offensive line that ranked 28th in DVOA played a large role in that. Most Buccaneers’ teammates got the impression that Brady is unlikely to return to Tampa. Wherever Brady lands will almost certainly have to be a potential Super Bowl contender. Time is running out for the GOAT, but he could still be the difference for a handful of veteran rosters. EDIT: Brady announced his retirement on February 1st. Unless he has another change of heart, the GOAT should be avoided in all drafts. Geno Smith – Timing is everything and Smith parlayed his best-ever campaign into a ton of money. If Brady retires and the Ravens tag Lamar Jackson, Smith could be the most attractive QB on the open market. A reunion with the Seahawks makes the most sense but Smith might command 10 times more than the $3.5 million he pocketed in 2022. Daniel Jones – The Giants declined their fifth-year option, which makes Jones free to test the market. Jones is probably a better fantasy option than a real NFL difference-maker. However, he is a plus athlete who doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions. However, New York’s two playoff games were very indicative of Jones’ week-to-week inconsistencies. Still, Brian Daboll did coach Jones to a solid campaign and a reunion makes the most sense. Other interested teams might include the Jets, Colts, Raiders, and Panthers. Jimmy Garoppolo – 2022 was a whirlwind season for Jimmy G. However, there will not be a reunion in San Francisco. Still just 31, Garoppolo will appeal to many teams. But, the jury is still out on if the nine-year veteran can ever emerge beyond “tweener” status. A reunion with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas makes sense. However, has Garoppolo proven he is an upgrade over Derek Carr? Speaking of Carr, it should be noted that he will be released or traded this off-season. Were he to hit the open market, Carr would slide in as the third or fourth-best option. Bridge/Backups PLAYER TEAM AGE YDS TD INT Baker Mayfield LAR 28 2163 10 8 Jacoby Brissett CLE 30 2608 12 6 Taylor Heinicke WAS 30 1859 12 6 Gardner Minshew PHI 27 563 3 3 Mike White NYJ 28 1192 3 4 Sam Darnold CAR 26 1143 7 3 Teddy Bridgewater MIA 30 683 4 4 Andy Dalton NO 35 2871 18 9 Joe Flacco NYJ 38 902 9 5 Drew Lock SEA 26 Cooper Rush DAL 29 1051 5 3 This second tier of free-agent QBs is unlikely to attract attention as potential starters. While some can fill in as bridge options, most are destined for clipboard duties. Baker Mayfield – Last season was a wild ride for Baker Mayfield. First, he opened the season as Carolina’s starter. Secondly, Mayfield was relegated to the bench and unceremoniously released. Finally, was the improbable Thursday night win as the Rams’ starter. Regardless, it has become aware that Mayfield isn’t a long-term option. However, he can find a role if he is willing to guide a rookie. Jacoby Brissett – Brissett did an admirable job replacing Mayfield and holding down the fort for Deshaun Watson. As a result, he might attract teams as a bridge option or in a mentor capacity. Taylor Heinicke – Although he was able to usurp Carson Wentz, Heinicke is unlikely to be viewed as a viable starter. Heinicke is capable of playing well in small stretches. Therefore, he’ll attract interest as a dependable veteran backup. Gardner Minshew – It has been two full seasons since Minshew was a starter. Most likely, Philadelphia is the ideal fit for a player like Minshew because the Eagles have a locked-in starter who takes a lot of punishment as a runner. It’s unlikely that Minshew will find a starting gig. Above all, a reunion with the Eagles or a similar role with another team is the most likely outcome. Mike White – White could be a dark horse option to earn a starting gig. However, that would only happen if he re-signs with the Jets. It seems painfully obvious that the Jets missed on Zach Wilson, which would open the door for White to win the job in camp. However, this outcome is rather unlikely as the Jets would be better served to start fresh. Other Veteran Options PLAYER TEAM AGE YDS TD INT Mason Rudolph PIT 28 Kyle Allen HOU 27 416 2 4 Jeff Driskel HOU 30 95 1 0 C.J. Beathard JAC 29 35 0 1 Blaine Gabbert TB 33 29 Case Keenum BUF 35 The 2022 NFL season is underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord!
Fantasy QB Tiers 2022 2.0
Temperatures outside are heating up and that means that the Fantasy Football draft season has finally arrived! Whether you’re in a dynasty, redraft, or best ball format, accurate up-to-date rankings are crucial for assembling a championship-winning roster. Recently, the FullTime team
2022 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
Temperatures outside are heating up and that means that the Fantasy Football draft season has finally arrived! Whether you’re in a dynasty, redraft, or best ball format, accurate up-to-date rankings are crucial for assembling a championship-winning roster.
Recently, the FullTime team of Jody Smith and Billy Muzio put together the initial run of 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings after an episode of the FullTime Fantasy Podcast.
Here are our initial 2022 Fantasy Football QB Rankings. Be sure to bookmark all of our rankings, which will be constantly updated all summer.
| PLAYER | POS | TEAM | BYE |
| TIER 1 | |||
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 7 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 8 |
| TIER 2 | |||
| Kyler Murray | QB | ARZ | 13 |
| Tom Brady | QB | TB | 11 |
WHAT OTHER PLAYERS MADE OUR TOP-10 QB RANKINGS?
To finish reading this in-depth article and Jody’s DYNASTY QB ROOKIE RANKINGS
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2022 Free Agent Rankings: Quarterback
Just because we’ve moved on to the NFL playoffs doesn’t mean the fantasy football season is over. In fact, there are all kinds of action still taking place in a hobby that has truly become a 24/7, 365-day lifestyle for many. For those still clamoring for football action now, the Mike Tagliere Memorial Playoff Challenge is a fun and free way to give to a great cause. There is also the FFWC Playoff Draft World Championship and the Maui Madness Pick ‘Em league to keep football fanatics invested in the NFL postseason. For season-long and dynasty players, preparing for the next season is always an integral part of being proactive, and previewing the upcoming free-agent class can be quite beneficial. In Part One of our 2022 NFL free agent rankings, we will look at the most important position, the quarterbacks. PLAYER POS TEAM AGE GAME YDS TD INT Jameis Winston QB NO 28 7 1170 14 3 Teddy Bridgewater QB DEN 29 14 3052 18 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB WAS 39 0 0 0 0 Cam Newton QB CAR 32 8 684 4 5 Tyrod Taylor QB HOU 32 6 966 5 5 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 39 16 3740 22 10 Jacoby Brissett QB MIA 29 11 1283 5 4 Andy Dalton QB CHI 34 8 1515 8 9 Marcus Mariota QB LV 28 9 4 0 0 Mitchell Trubisky QB BUF 27 6 43 0 1 Jameis Winston – Winston was easily the best quarterback the Saints were able to utilize in a frustrating season but was limited to just seven games. Overall, Winston had a nifty 14-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio and ranked 16th in average fantasy points per game. He certainly played well enough to attract plenty of offers to be an NFL starter but the biggest problem for a return to New Orleans is the Saints’ dire cap situation. The club is currently projected to be over $70 million over the cap and is on the hook for Taysom Hill‘s albatross contract. Teddy Bridgewater – True to form, Bridgewater played fine in Denver but was not a true difference-making signal-caller. Bridgewater ranked 12th with a 76.4% adjusted completion rate and 11th with an 8.4 ADOT but was just 24th in fantasy points per game and topped 250 passing yards just once after Week 6. A better NFL quarterback than fantasy option, Bridgewater didn’t elevate an intriguing Denver receiving corps and doesn’t run enough to be anything more than a middling fantasy QB2. He will, however, likely attract offers from NFL clubs as a ‘bridge’ quarterback, especially considering the lack of perceived big-name rookie signal-callers entering the 2022 NFL Draft. Ryan Fitzpatrick – Speaking of bridge quarterbacks, the Ryan Fitzpatrick NFL Reality Bus Tour will undoubtedly attract another stop in 2022. Fitzpatrick injured his hip in the opener and never returned, ending his tenure in Washington after only six attempts. A crafty and seasoned veteran capable of being a solid mentor and providing a spark as a change-of-pace option, Fitzmagic could sign with a number of clubs trying to develop a young quarterback but is unlikely to attract many offers as a starter. Cam Newton – Newton’s triumphant return to Carolina was mostly a flop as Newton posted the third-lowest passer grade from PFF, beating out only Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon. He can still be an effective red-zone threat due to his running ability but it’s doubtful that Newton will garner interest as a potential starter and he won’t command anywhere near the $6 million he pocketed in 2021. Tyrod Taylor – Taylor’s journeyman career will probably continue outside of Houston, as he lost the starting job to third-round rookie Davis Mills. 2021 started promising for Taylor but he just wasn’t the same after returning from a concussion. Expect Taylor to attract attention as a dependable backup to an entrenched starter, but his chances of competing for a starting gig are not good. Ben Roethlisberger – 40 when the 2022 season opens, Big Ben is expected to retire and it looks like the right time for the future Hall-of-Famer to do just that. Roethlisberger’s numbers declined across the board, including his second-lowest showings in over 12 seasons in adjusted yards per completion, TD rate, passing yards per game, and QB Rating. He also was sacked 38 times despite getting rid of the ball extremely quickly. If Roethlisberger were to change his mind and return, the only landing spot that makes sense is back with the Steelers, but we question if the franchise would be better off turning the page. Jacoby Brissett – In six games with double-digit pass attempts, Brissett threw just five touchdowns and surpassed 250 passing yards once. He also accumulated double-digit rushing yards only one time in 10 games. Brissett can no longer be viewed as an above-average backup and certainly won’t attract any offers as a starter. Andy Dalton – 35 in October, Dalton’s days as a starter are over but he could find himself as a quality veteran backup ala Joe Flacco. It would make sense for teams breaking in a first-year starter to covet Dalton in a mentor’s role. Marcus Mariota – Mariota was one of my favorite quarterback prospects over the last 7-8 seasons, so I’m disappointed that things have not worked out. The Raiders didn’t let Mariota throw much but did use him on a lot of Wildcat snaps. If he lands in the right spot with a play-caller willing to cater to his strengths, there’s still a chance Mairota can develop into a quality fantasy option, but that seems like wishful thinking. Mitchell Trubisky – Another failed former Chicago passer, Trubisky wasn’t able to contribute much in Buffalo as Josh Allen stayed healthy. For the former first-rounder to become anything more than an adequate backup, he would need to land with a QB coach with a proven track record for reconciliation projects. Best of the Rest PLAYER POS TEAM AGE GAME YDS TD INT Trevor Siemian QB NO 30 6 1154 11 3 Joe Flacco QB NYJ 37 2 366 3
Dynasty and Superflex Rookie Quarterbacks Outlook
In fantasy, an anchor at the Quarterback position is underrated. Many think you can just get one off the waiver wire, but having an Andrew Luck on your team proved to be quite valuable in years’ past. Is Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence – Clemson / 6’6″ – 213 lbs
After three years of wrecking the NCAA, our golden boy is finally entering the NFL. Lawrence holds one of the most impressive resumes in recent memory and looks to continue his success at the next level.
Lawrence brings his tall, skinny frame with hopes of adding muscle mass before facing off against NFL defenders. He is a polished passer, showing excellent accuracy and ball placement to all levels of the field. He has good arm strength and will not struggle to drive the ball down field. Lawrence is a great athlete who will not be afraid to tuck and run when the play breaks down, which adds an extra plus-element to his future fantasy value. Though he has been deemed a so-called generational prospect, Lawrence does need improvements in multiple aspects of his game. Disguised coverages can throw him off course and force ill-advised throws. His delivery and release can be a bit too long and slowz which could be problematic sooner than later. Lawrence remains one of the best quarterbacks to enter the league in the last decade, and he has a great chance to solidify himself as such.
- Grade: High-end starter – pocket passer
- Draft Projection: 1st Overall
- Projected DFWC ADP: 9th or 10th pick aggressively, no later than early 2nd. In Superflex he’s the #1 Rookie pick overall.
- Comparison: Justin Herbert
- Bottom Line: Lawrence is the 1.01 in any superflex or 2QB formats, even if you’re not a believer. Worst case, he will perform at a low-end QB1 level for years to come.
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