2025 Houston Texans Fantasy Preview
2025 Houston Texans After winning consecutive AFC South titles in his first two seasons, changes are coming for DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans. A mere months after Bobby Slowik was a hot head coaching candidate, Ryans jettisoned his offensive coordinator after the unit dipped from seventh in passing in 2023 to 23rd. The offensive line was also a major problem. The Texans allowed the third-most sacks (54) a year ago. Worsening that concern was the club shipping off Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington and signing veteran castoffs to fill in. Second-round OT Aireontae Ersery is enormous and adds some youthful potential to the team’s biggest area of need. New offensive coordinator Nick Caley was the Rams’ passing game coordinator last season. His biggest task will be to recapture the magic that QB C.J. Stroud had in his 2023 rookie campaign. Stroud’s play regressed last season under Slowik, as constant pressure led to poorer decisions and more turnovers. Caley will also be dealing with a revamped receiving corps. The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to man the slot. Kirk replaces Stefon Diggs, who departed for New England. No. 1 wideout Nico Collins missed five games but ranked 10th in fantasy points per game. Collins topped 13 PPR points in seven of his final eight games and remains a locked-in WR1. The Texans also added Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel on Day 2 of the 2025 NFL Draft, giving the club a vastly improved supporting cast. Both rookies should see ample playing time as Tank Dell is expected to miss the season. In the backfield, Joe Mixon’s three-down role looks secure. Mixon topped 1,000 rushing yards and scored a dozen touchdowns in his first season with the club. His 17.2 PPR points per game ranked 10th at running back, and he accumulated that volume despite leading the NFL with (-94) tackle loss yards due to Houston’s haggard O-line. Mixon is a good fit in this scheme and boasts the volume to post fantasy RB1 numbers. Fourth-round USC rookie Woody Marks will contend with Dameon Pierce for backup duties. Dalton Schultz had his poorest showing at tight end since becoming a starter in 2020. Caley’s background is as a tight ends coach, but he also comes from a Sean McVay system that implemented a committee approach to the position. Houston used a fourth-rounder on Cam Stover in 2024 and ran ’12’ personnel on 31.4 percent of their snaps last season- the fourth-highest rate in football. That makes Schultz merely a middling TE2 option with limited fantasy upside. Fantasy Grade: B+ QB Stroud, C.J., HOU [QB1] After a dynamic debut, C.J. Stroud regressed in his sophomore season. It wasn’t all on Stroud, as he suffered the second-most sacks (52) in the league. But defenses caught up to Stroud, who dropped to 20 touchdowns and jumped from five to 12 picks in Year Two. Reinforcements are on the way. The Texans added OT Aireontae Ersery and a pair of promising Iowa State wideouts (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel) in the 2025 NFL Draft. Houston also brought in Nick Caley from the Rams to run the offense after ranking 27th in pace of play. Stroud should be better in 2025. However, he’s outside QB1 range. ADVICE: Fantasy QB2 with limited ceiling. QB Mills, Davis, HOU [QB2] Mills is one of the better backups in the league. However, he has no fantasy value unless C.J. Stroud gets injured. Just a name to keep in mind in deep Superflex leagues. RB Mixon, Joe, HOU [RB1] Despite seeing an average of 6.8 defenders in the box (3rd most) running behind Houston’s 26th-ranked run-blocking line, Joe Mixon ranked 9th in PPR points per game. Mixon topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season and posted seven top-10 fantasy weekly performances. Unfortunately, six of those RB1 outings came in Houston’s first eight games. But Mixon remained a force thanks to his superior volume (77.7 percent opportunity share ranked 7th) and 60 red-zone touches (6th). The Texans added receiving help and worked to improve their beleaguered O-line. Mixon remains a high-end RB2 in 2025. UPDATE: Mixon opened training camp on the non-football injury list. We’ve downgraded his projections. ADVICE: High-end RB2 with RB1 potential. RB Chubb, Nick, HOU [RB2] The Texans signed Chubb to a one-year, $2.5 million deal. Chubb has missed 24 games over the past two seasons, most of which occurred after his second major knee injury. When he did play last year, he had no explosiveness and averaged a career-worst 3.3 yards per tote. Maybe an extra offseason of noted viral workouts will help him regain his form. Joe Mixon is also dealing with injury, so if Chubb can rebound, he could cause the Texans to employ a committee backfield. Finally, view Chubb as a low-risk depth piece in the latter rounds. RB Pierce, Dameon, HOU [RB3] ADVICE: Pierce will open the season in his customary spot as Houston’s No. 2 back. However, he could lose snaps to rookie Woody Marks. RB Marks, Woody, HOU [RB4] ADVICE: Prolific pass-catching back (83 receptions for Mississippi State in 2021) who ran the most routes in college from 2021-2024. He’s also got a compact frame that evokes Maurice Jones-Drew comps. Marks is a change-of-pace option behind Joe Mixon. WR Collins, Nico, HOU [WR1] Collins had a nice 2024 with 68 catches for 1006 yards and 7 TDs in only 12 games, while ranking second among all wide receivers in yards per route run (2.86). He finished as the WR6 in points per game (14.9), despite missing four games due to a midseason calf injury. WR Tank Dell may miss all of 2025, and WR Stefon Diggs is in New England, leading to more reliance on Nico in the passing game. His strong rapport with C.J. Stroud, especially on deep routes and in the red zone, makes him a high-ceiling asset in one of the league’s top passing offenses. ADVICE: WR1 with top-5 upside; target
Week 1 NFL Player Props: Malik Nabers Leads the Way
Week 1 NFL Player Props Week 1 is officially underway and it’s that time of week to start pinpointing the best prop bets to exploit heading into Sunday’s slate of action. Last season, this column resulted in +12.6 Units so let’s have another profitable season. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 1 NFL Player Props to target! Jared Goff OVER 265.5 Passing Yards (-114) Goff topped this line in each of his previous five games of the 2023 season, including in the Wild Card Round against these very same Los Angeles Rams in which he tallied 277 passing yards. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, a healthy Jameson Williams, Sam Laporta, and even Kalif Raymond, the sky is the limit for these Lions. Especially with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield. Goff finished the 2023 campaign second in passing yards (4,575) and his home/away splits are eye-popping. He completed over 70% of his pass attempts with a 19:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 107.9 QBR at home. On the road, it was a different story as the signal caller completed just 64.8% of his throws with an 11:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 89.5 QBR. Against the Rams, the Lions will surely run the ball but given the weapons at Goff’s disposal, I think he’ll clear this line easily on his home turf. Expect at least one deep connection to Jameson Williams while St. Brown and Laporta will be peppered with targets. Smash the Over. Jordan Love OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-110) WIN After his breakout season, Jordan Love is set to kick off this campaign against an Eagles team getting a ton of buzz for upgrading its secondary. However, that secondary was the league’s second-worst pass defense in 2023. And although the Eagles snagged two corners with their first two picks, I’m not so sure that they’ll be able to stick with Green Bay’s electric playmakers on the outside in Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and even Luke Musgrave. If the Packers want to remain competitive in their season opener, the secondary is the area of the field that Love will need to exploit. Philly also swapped out Hassan Reddick for Michael Huff, but their front seven remains largely the same — a group that finished 10th in rushing defense last season. So, the ground game might be tough sledding, which means Love and his receivers will have the best shot moving the ball through the air. Love was a machine late last season, averaging 271 passing yards over his final nine regular season games, throwing for 255+ yards in seven of them. And while RB Josh Jacobs will get his touches, don’t be surprised if some of those handoffs turn into screen passes or dump-offs to keep the Eagles’ fierce front seven on their heels — boosting Love’s yardage even more. Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115) WIN Here’s a line that stands out — and not in a good way! It’s set way too low for a clear RB1 like Brian Robinson Jr. Let me break it down: Robinson is the main guy for the Commanders, handling the bulk of the carries. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler, as talented as he is, plays more of a third-down role, meaning he’s not going to be pounding the rock a ton. Now, even if Robinson isn’t super efficient — let’s say he averages just 3.0 yards per carry — with the kind of volume he’s likely to get (around 13 carries), he’ll still end up pushing past 40 yards. So don’t let a low line fool you! I’ll be wagering multiple units on this one. James Conner OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) WIN Get ready for a wild ride because I’m all in on the Cardinals surprising everyone this season! This bet is all about believing in them to rise above expectations. The Cardinals are 6.5-point underdogs heading into Buffalo, and if the Bills completely steamroll them, sure, this might not hit. But I think the Cardinals can hang tough! Last season, James Conner cleared 12.5 rush attempts in 9 of his 13 games. And the only times he didn’t? Those were brutal losses by 19, 14, 23, and 11 points. As long as Arizona doesn’t get blown out, Conner will be fed the ball. Rookie Trey Benson? He’s probably only getting a couple of carries, leaving Conner as the workhorse. So, unless this game turns into a total rout, expect Conner to smash that 12.5-rush-attempt mark! Blake Corum UNDER 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) Do we truly think Sean McVay is going to cut back Kyren Williams‘s workload that much? Perhaps later in the season but seven carries for a backup running back still seems like a lot. Especially given that the Lions are favored, the Rams may have to throw the ball late to complete a comeback. This game’s got the highest total of the week at 50.5, so we’re probably in for an exciting, pass-heavy shootout. With all that action, it’s hard to imagine Blake Corum — in his first game — squeezing in seven rush attempts. It’s going to be all about the air show in this one! Nico Collins OVER 65.6 Receiving Yards (-120) WIN Get ready for a big game from Collins! That standout receiver was the third-best in 2023 according to PFF. Sure, Stefon Diggs might take a chunk of the targets, but you can’t overlook what Collins did against Indy last season. He torched them, clearing 100 yards in both matchups, including a jaw-dropping 195-yard performance in Week 18! And it’s not just the Colts. Collins hit this yardage mark in eight games last season when he played over 60% of snaps. And the Colts’ defense hasn’t exactly leveled up. PFF ranked them 21st in coverage. Additionally, two of their worst games were against Houston. Now,
2024 Houston Texans Fantasy Preview
2024 Houston Texans Fantasy Preview The 2023 Houston Texans were projected to win the fewest games in the AFC, but a strange thing happened on their way to the AFC South basement. In one offseason, the franchise hired the right
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2023 Houston Texans Outlook
2023 Houston Texans Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview
2023 Houston Texans Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Houston Texans Outlook.
— Offense —
Houston ran the ball 40.7% of the time last season due to losing in many games. Despite needing to chase on the scoreboard, they averaged only 34.1 passes per game. Overall, the Texans had the worst offense in the league in combined yards. A new coaching staff and rookie quarterback should help Houston push higher up the offensive rankings in 2023.
— Quarterback —
C.J. Stroud
Over his two seasons as a starter in college, Stroud passed for 8,123 yards over 25 games with 85 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His completion rate (69.3) graded well while averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt. Over this span, Stroud offers minimal value in the run game (79/88).
He passed for more than 400 yards in five matchups (484/3, 406/5, 405/2, 432/6, and 573/6) in 2021. Last season, Stroud failed to reach that threshold in any matchup despite delivering four more touchdowns in seven games.
Fantasy Outlook: The Texans have an 11-38-1 record over the past three seasons. Their rebuild process starts with better quarterback play, and their 2023 coaching staff invested in Stroud. He will be behind center in Week 1 if his training camp goes well. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Stroud is the 26th-ranked quarterback.
Davis Mills
Mills passed for 3,468 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over his final 13 games at Stanford. His completion rate (65.5) and yards per pass attempt (7.9) ranked well. He finished his college career with 63 rushes for 86 yards and three touchdowns.
Mills is a pocket passer with the arm to deliver passes on time all over the field. However, his lack of experience hinders his pocket presence and reading defenses. Mills projects to have a higher ceiling while needing to prove he can handle surveying the whole field and maintain toughness under duress in the pocket.
In his first season with Houston, Mills went 2-9 over 13 games. He passed for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while offering strength in his completion rate (66.8). His best play passing the ball came in four home starts (312/3, 310/2, 331/1, and 301/3). Unfortunately, Mills gained only 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 31 sacks.
His game regressed in his second year with the Texans. Mills saw his completion rate (61.0) fall while tossing 15 passes to the other team. He finished with 3,226 combined yards over 15 games with 19 touchdowns. Mills passed for fewer than 200 yards in eight of his matchups while passing for more than 300 yards in one game (319/1). His best fantasy outcome came in Week 18 (298/3).
Fantasy Outlook: Mills has 26 career starts, giving him the inside track to start for Houston in Week 1. He gained more than 20 yards on 17.1% of his 292 completion in 2022, despite gaining only 6.5 yards per pass for the year. From a fantasy perspective, Mills will be found in the free-agent pool in most formats.
Other Options: Case Keenum
— Running Backs —
For the second consecutive season, the running back position had a significant role in the Texans’ offense. They finished with 438 touches (462 in 2021), despite gaining only 3.8 yards per rush and 5.4 yards per catch. Their back gained 1,805 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 98 catches, or 19.21 FPPG in PPR formats.
Dameon Pierce
The Gators used Pierce as a change-of-pace runner over four seasons. He rushed for 1,806 yards and 23 touchdowns on 329 carries in his career, with his best value coming in 2021 (100/574/13). His play in the passing game improved over the past two years (17/156/1 and 19/216/3) while gaining 10.3 yards per catch.
Pierce has a unique running style with short jabby steps in traffic. When given a free run, his strides open up, leading to acceleration and sneaky speed over the short areas of the field. He runs through contact with the vision to make good decisions in space. Pierce brings strength to the table while lacking difference-maker acceleration over the long field. However, he has a feel for open space in the passing game.
In his rookie seasons, he gained 1,104 combined yards with five touchdowns and 30 catches over 13 games. Pierce ranked 26th in running back scoring (168.40) in PPR formats. His best run came from Week 3 and Week 5 (60/310/3 with 11 catches for 43 yards). He lost his mojo in Week 11 (17 combined yards with two catches) and Week 12 (16 combined yards with three catches) while failing to score more than 16.00 fantasy points in his final eight starts. Pierce missed the last four weeks with an ankle injury.
Fantasy Outlook: Houston upgraded their backup running back in the offseason, pointing to fewer chances in 2023. Pierce ranks 20th in the early draft season at running back. I’ll pencil him in for 60% of the rushing opportunity and about half of the pass-catching chances. My starting point is 1,000 combined yards with five to seven scores and 25 catches.
Devin Singletary
In his third season with the Bills, Singletary emerged as their top running back by snap count (830 – 63.0%). He finished with a career-high in touches (228), combined yards (1,098), touchdowns (8), and catches (40). Singletary ranked 19th in running scoring (198.00) in PPR leagues. His best value came over his final seven games (630 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 21 catches) on 18.1 touches per game. His risk comes from his low bar and production over his first 12 games (99.3 fantasy points – 8.28 per game).
Last year, Singletary posted almost identical stats (1,099 combined yards with six touchdowns and 38 catches) as 2021 on 215 touches. He slipped to 23rd in running back scoring (180.90 fantasy points). He scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in two games (24.10 and 20.50), but Singletary posted fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in nine contests.
Fantasy Outlook: The downgrade in the overall offense will lead to…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE TEXANS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
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2022 FullTime Fantasy Staff Predictions
The 2022 NFL season is rapidly approaching and that means it is fantasy football draft season. The 2022 FullTime Fantasy Staff Predictions give you all the insight you’ll need to dominate your league’s draft. FullTime Fantasy’s exclusive Preseason Pro Series
FullTime Fantasy’s exclusive Preseason Pro Series offers unique insight from some of the world’s most successful high-stakes players. In addition, we have the reigning No. 1 draft ranker Billy Muzio and former Most Accurate Expert, Jody Smith, assuring that FullTime Fantasy members get the absolute best rankings and analyses that are available anywhere!
Just like when you visit our PreSeason PRO Hub, we polled the FullTime Fantasy staff to present our official preseason staff picks for sleeper, bust, breakout, and comeback players of the year. For transparency, here’s how we’re defining those picks.
- Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position (ADP) in 2022.
- Bust: A player who is highly regarded and will underperform his ADP in 2022.
- Breakout: A player (rookies included) who will rise up with career-best numbers in 2022 and make a huge impact.
- Comeback: A player who underperformed or was injured in 2021 and is due for a significant rebound in 2022.
Before you prepare for the real deal, be sure to snag your first free mock draft on us and be eligible for some amazing prizes. Now, let’s get on to the 2022 FullTime Fantasy Staff Predictions.
Our 2022 Breakout Player
Michael Pittman (WR) Indianapolis Colts
Fresh off the heels of a solid WR18 campaign last season, Michael Pittman checks all the boxes of an ascending player. First, he’s already an elite talent with the size (6-4, 223) to dominate in all facets of the game. Secondly, he fits the third-year wide receiver breakout narrative, although the 88/1,082/6 showing in 2021 indicates he has already arrived. Finally, the upgrade from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan can not be understated. Ryan has a history of peppering his No. 1 wideouts with targets. If the past is any indicator, Pittman is about to contend for top-5 fantasy numbers in 2022.
Matt Ryan’s No. 1 WRs
2008- 148 tgts. 88 rec. 1382 yds 7 TD (WR4)
2009- 165 tgts. 85/1153/11 (WR9)
2010- 179 tgts. 115/1389/10 (WR1)
2011- 180 tgts. 100/1296/8 (WR5)
2012- 142 tgts. 92/1351/7 (WR10)
2013- Julio Jones played just 5 games but pace of 188 tgts. 131/1856/6 (WR2)— Jody Smith #TagsStrong💪 (@JodySmithNFL) August 22, 2022
Looking at our 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings, we’re all-in on Pittman in 2022. And that’s why he’s our easy pick for 2022 Breakout Player of the Year.
You MUST See the FullTime Staff’s picks for sleeper, bust, and comeback!!
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Fantasy Football Late-Round WR Sleepers
August has finally arrived and that means it’s fantasy football draft time. One of the most important strategies for success is to target those fantasy football late-round WR sleepers. Along with identifying 2022’s deep sleepers and fantasy football breakouts, loading
WR Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs) ADP 91.2 (WR48) – The only concern for Moore coming out of Western Michigan was the level of competition. Moore was PFF’s No. 4-graded wideout in 2021 and led all receivers in missed tackles forced. So far, we’ve seen that transition over nicely into the pros. The second-round rookie has been turning heads and meshing well with QB Patrick Mahomes.
With Tyreek Hill now in Miami, the door is open for Moore to earn a substantial role right away in Kansas City. Indications are he may be doing just that. Moore’s inside/outside flexibility and run-after-catch ability make him an intriguing fantasy prospect in the 9th or 10th round.
Jalen Tolbert (Dallas Cowboys) ADP 108.3 (WR52) – Another Day Two rookie pass-catcher, Tolbert should have a clear path to a starting role right away in a Dallas offense that finished No. 1 in 2021. Michael Gallup has already stated he will not be ready when the season opens. Now, Tolbert’s main competition, James Washington, was just carted off the field with an apparent ankle/foot injury.
QB Dak Prescott supported a pair of top-27 PPR wide receivers last season, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Now that Cooper resides in Cleveland, the door is open for Tolbert to command 80-plus targets in Year One. That makes him very undervalued at his current draft position.
D.J. Chark (Detroit Lions) ADP 130.4 (WR62) – Chark missed most of last season with an ankle injury. The good news there is…
Who else is on Jody’s late-round WR sleepers list?
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