NHL DFS: Point Shot Cheat Sheet – 10/20
Cheat Sheet For Monday, October 20th Range/Tier Center Wing Defense Top Plays Auston Matthews (TOR), Tyler Seguin (DAL) Alex Radulov (DAL), Cam Atkinson (CBJ), Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) John Klingberg (DAL), Morgan Rielly (TOR) Value Sean Couturier (PHI), William Karlsson
NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 10/19
Key Skaters David Pastrnak (BOS) Before you people say “wait, Rob, he’s $8,100, are you crazy?”, look at his start to the season. I said to play him last night based on his production against Tampa and he showed up in a big way. Since November 10th of last season, Pasta has faced Toronto 11 times, including playoff games and has eight goals (four on the power-play), seven assists, and 50 shots on goal. Toronto’s defense hasn’t gotten better over that time and, if anything, it’s gotten worse and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to right-wingers per game thus far this season. Matt Duchene (NSH) Centering the second line thus far Duchene has two goals and seven assists in seven-game with the Preds along with 18 shots. Florida played an up and down game last night at home against Colorado now have to travel to Nashville to play one of the better teams in the Western Conference in one of the better home venues in the league. In seven games this season, the Panthers have allowed four or more goals four times now. Steven Stamkos (TB) There are a hand full of games tonight that I can see going to the moon and this is definitely one of those games. Stammer has been rolling to start the season as he’s made the transition to wing seamless (like so many elite scoring wingers have) and just like I said would be the case two years ago, but I digress. The Lightning captain has scored a goal in four of seven games this season, has five assists, and three or more shots in four games. Favorite Line Stacks *Note: Lines are subject to change depending on morning skate lines. Revert to the chat and/or look for updates here for any impact they may have. Toronto Maple Leafs First Line: Johnsson – Matthews – Nylander With Tavares being out for an extended period of time, this line will be depended on to step up in all situations, especially against top Eastern Conference talent. All three skaters will correlate on the top power-play unit; Matthews will play a point with Nylander and Johnsson down low. Nylander will take the spot previously occupied by J.T. Matthews’ shot volume and production make him worth his salary, even in a tough spot. Nylander and Johnsson’s value makes this line easier to fit in as the upside is extremely high in a fast-paced affair. Nashville Predators Second Line: Forsberg – Duchene – Granlund This line continues to be one of the more productive trios in the league ranking near the top in goals scored as a unit. Forsberg and Duchene skate together on the top power-play unit with Granlund on the second unit. Florida coming in after an up and down overtime affair last night at home should be a bit beaten up which will do them no favors against one of the better teams in the Western Conference. Forsberg has a goal in all four home games, Granlund, who’s $4,100 has three points at home, and Duchene has points in every home game (eight total) this season. Vegas Golden Knights First Line: Marchessault – Karlsson – Smith I don’t love the idea of playing Vegas on the road often, but I’ll offset that with the idea that the Pens are playing their second game in as many nights. The top line for Vegas has scored the third-most goals as a unit at even strength this season. Pittsburgh defense is garbage, I don’t really care what the numbers say in this situation, they allow fast teams to get by them and generate scoring chances, both of which play into Vegas’ hand here. All three correlate on the power-play, albeit on the second unit, but Vegas uses both power-play units as much as any team in the league. Top Positional Plays Center Patrice Bergeron (BOS) Sean Monahan (CGY) Jack Eichel (BUF) Sean Couturier (PHI) Derek Stepan (ARI) Wing Evander Kane (SJ) Claude Giroux (PHI) Nikita Kucherov (TB) Mitch Marner (TOR) Phil Kessel (ARI) Matthew Tkachuk (CGY) Defense Roman Josi (NSH) Mark Giordano (CGY) Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI) Ivan Provorov (PHI) Torey Krug (BOS) Shea Theodore (VGK) Value Defense Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI) Travis Hamonic (CGY) Nick Leddy (NYI) Charlie McAvoy (BOS) Top Goalies Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK) – Comeback tour in Pittsburgh. Give me all the MAF. Pekka Rinne (NSH) – Price is up there but should see plenty of work and I expect Nashville to win. Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB) – Could see close to 40 shots here. At home, I’m ok with Vasi even though 420 has the ability to destroy him, and every other goalie in the league for that matter. Ben Bishop (DAL) – Bishop I liked last night but the Stars decided to go with Khudobin instead. So, tonight with Bishop at $7,100, I think he pays that off easily. GOOD LUCK!!
NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 10/18
Key Skaters Connor McDavid (EDM) I just call ’em like I see ’em. Clearly, it’s no secret that McDavid is a top play each and every night but specifically tonight, against the Wings, I am all over him. First of
NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 10/17
Key Skaters Johnny Gaudreau (CGY) Johnny Hockey feels way too underpriced tonight as the 13th-highest priced winger on the slate. In a home matchup, I always look at Gaudreau as a high-floor player who also brings immense upside with him
NHL DFS: The Slap Shot – Wed 10/16
Welcome to the NHL Slapshot … I am the B team to Rob Geriak when it comes to our NHL content here and you should be reading my article after you read his daily Point Shot article on the days when we both post. On the days when only the Slap Shot will cover the slate (later in the season this will be weekends for example) then I’ll cover the slate similar to how Rob does. But on nights like tonight when we both have articles mine is solely focused on target spots for some higher $ tournaments to play on DraftKings. There are six games on tonights mid week slate, which is nice and something we shouldn’t take for granted when those 3 game mid week slates come along later in the year. So far the new scoring on DK remains pointless of a change in my mind but it’s something we have quickly adjusted too. Chasing the goalie wins is less important as getting the high volume of saves (which was the case before as well) and last night we saw the upside that remains with stacking the right spot. If you played the Tavares-Marner-Johnson line for Toronto then you were looking at some 3 point bonuses across the board last night. Yeah, you were also paying up for them but the benefit of a three man stack with the new scoring system is for lines where all three guys contribute. But I would continue to focus on just 2 man correlations that fit within the right price point. Last night for me I had Larkin-Mantha (1 combined goal) and Pettersson-Boesser as my combos. The Vancouver duo came through well enough and I didn’t have to tilt that the third winger on the line wasn’t involved in every goal. In the past I would do a Defenseman as the third guy in the stack a ton and with teams like Vancouver where you have one of the better DFS D-men in Edler it pays off. So just something to keep in mind. C&W C&W One off Wingers If it doesn’t fit, then make the second C&W one offs or correlate them with your D. REST NOTES This early in the season I don’t put too much into teams who have had long breaks or are on B2B, but here’s the notes for tonights games Toronto is on a B2B tonight in Washington Philadelphia is on a B2B tonight in Edmonton Carolina is on a B2B tonight in San Jose … Which brings up an old narrative about the Sharks destroying teams in the first period at home when the opponent played the night before. OWNERSHIP Colorado vs Pittsburgh will gain plenty of ownership, they would have ownership no matter who they are playing and going against each other they’re likely popular. Toronto and Washington have the next highest total and I would suspect folks try to attack Toronto with the Backstrom-Ovechkin line. MY TARGET GAME Carolina vs San Jose Last night I successfully saw the regression to the positive for the Kings coming (I just wanted to sound like a true DFS tout there) as they only gave up 2 goals vs the Hurricanes in a low scoring game. Tonight in San Jose though I suspect we see some more fireworks. The Sharks have been a mess early in the season – and although they’re not quite as disastrous as the Winnipeg Jets – they should still offer a good spot to target. But as I noted above, the Sharks at home vs a team on a B2B are dominant in the first period and should get two early goals. Dear Timo Meier, it’s time to bust out and join the 2019-2020 season please. Hatty style. After going the first four games without a point Timo got an assist last Thursday and a Goal on Sunday and not shockingly the Sharks finally won two games. Hey, that’s nice. How about a multi-point game tonight for all of us with the line lock? His reduced price will make him 20% owned or so. Don’t fade Timo Time. SJS Top Line + Hurricanes One Off (Teuvo Teravainen tempting for me) Other Targets Caps 2nd Line — Kuzy/Oshie Avalanche One Offs UNDER THE RADAR SPOT THAT INTERESTS ME Dallas vs Columbus … This game should go over that 5.5 total, but not by a ton. The Stars are a good defensive team but the secondary lines for the Blue Jackets to contribute in this game as well. I wouldn’t make this your focal point tonight but it’s a game that will get overlooked and have goalie exposure from. Don’t go there in my mind. DEFENSE TARGETS Feels like a decent night to get two good defense-man and pay down on your one off wingers. Blue Jackets (Jones, Werenski) Capitals (Carlson, Orlov) Avalanche (Johnson, Makar) Penguins (Letang, Schultz) SNEAKY GOALIES OF THE NIGHT None HIGH END: Carter Hart – Philly … With his team on a B2B good chance they give up some more SOG against a good Edmonton team but the Oilers have never really been great at home under McDavid in my mind and Carter Hart is basically playing a homecoming game tonight and is a stud. He is only $7100, so load up on Hart and if you wanna hedge this it’s an easy hedge. That McDavid guy’s line. LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT San Jose Sharks Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau, Timo Meier BETS AND STUFF THREE TO LIGHT THE LAMP TONIGHT … Timo Meier – San Jose Sharks T.J. Oshie – Washington Capitals Teuvo Teravainien – Carolina Hurricanes SUB 4K PLAYERS TO SCORE A GOAL … Oliver Bjorkstrand – Columbus Andrei Burakovsky – Colorado BETS Flyers ML Sharks ML Sharks 1st Period Stars / Jackets OVER 5.5 Canes / Sharks OVER 6.5
NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 10/16
Key Skaters Nathan MacKinnon (COL) On a night where there are a bunch of viable centers to focus on, I’m going right to MacKinnon in a matchup with the Pittsburgh Penguins. We’ve seen the Pens start off very strong and
NHL DFS: The Slap Shot – Tue 10/15
Welcome to the NHL Slapshot … I am the B team to Rob Geriak when it comes to our NHL content here and you should be reading my article after you read his daily Point Shot article on the days
NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 10/15
Key Skaters Auston Matthews (TOR) The Leafs return home after a short road trip to Detroit where they seemed to get right after a putrid showing against the Lightning on home ice. Matthews comes in third in the league in shots per 60 (14.21) at 5v5 and has six goals thus far. While John Tavares is less expensive than Matthews, I prefer paying up for AM34 against the Wild who are playing their second road game in as many days. Minnesota has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to centers to this point. Brendan Gallagher (MTL) If the Canadiens expect to keep up with the pace and offensive potency that the Lightning brings, they’ll have to move the puck and get pucks to the net in good scoring position. Gallagher is just the guy to look to for that as at 5v5 he leads the league in shots per 60 (15.52), is second in points per 60, and averages 4.31 high-danger scoring chances. Tampa has done a good job of limiting Gallagher ins recent matchups, but this is a spot where I think Gallagher shows up in a big way on home ice. Sebastian Aho (CAR) The top-line center for the Hurricanes has not gotten off to a great start as far as counting stats go. He has just one goal and in six games thus far with no assists. However, this is a great spot for Aho, who has averaged 12.09 shots per 60 and 6.05 high-danger scoring chances per 60 at 5v5 to capitalize on all of those opportunities against the Kings who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to centers this season. Favorite Line Stacks *Note: Lines are subject to change depending on morning skate lines. Revert to the chat and/or look for updates here for any impact they may have. Toronto Maple Leafs First Line: Johnsson – Matthews – Nylander Matthews has led the charge here clearly as this unit has combined for five goals in shared ice time but Matthews alone has six goals thus far. Nylander has come out skating much better this season than last with two goals and three assists while Johnsson has picked up right where he left off last season. Matthews and Johnsson skate together on the top power-play unit with Johnsson being the net-front presence, which is crazy to think about with all of the on-ice scoring talent Toronto brings with them. Preferred Two-Player Pairing: Matthews, Johnsson Nashville Predators Second Line: Forsberg – Duchene – Granlund Speaking of good production as a line, the second line for the Predators leads all trio’s in goals as a unit thus far and I’ve been riding them and their value virtually every night. While the salaries of Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene are creeping up, Mikael Granlund remains a great value and a productive skater on this line. Vegas has been known to be stingy defensively, like the Preds but both of these teams have talented offenses and I could see this game turning into somewhat of a track meet. Preferred Two-Player Pairing: Duchene, Forsberg Calgary Flames First Line: Gaudreau – Monahan – Lindholm Monny, Johnny, and Elias are not off to a fast start as a unit this season as they were one of the best lines in hockey last season. With that being said, Carter Hart has been great in net thus far for the Flyers. Philly has played three games to this point, one against the Blackhawks in Prague, one against the Devils and one against the Canucks. I think it is fair to say that the Devils and Canucks can’t be compared to the offensive firepower that the Flames deploy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monny and Johnny lead the charge in what could be a tough night for the Flyers in a tough road environment. Preferred Two-Player Pairing: Monahan, Gaudreau Sneaky Stack Detroit Red Wings First Line: Bertuzzi – Larkin – Mantha The top trio for the Wings has started out red-hot as they have combined for seven goals as a unit, overall they have 10 total goals with Anthony Mantha leading with six tallies while Larkin has assisted on five goals thus far. They’re skating extremely well together, clearly, and all three share power-play correlation. Vancouver has been stingy defensively and with Bo Horvat likely on the ice following Larkin around as much as possible, this is a tough matchup to consider. However, Detroit has produced thus far against Dallas and Nashville, two very good defensive teams. No one will stack Detroit tonight. Preferred Two-Player Pairing: Larkin, Mantha Top Positional Plays Center John Tavares (TOR) – Again, I prefer Matthews but worth mentioning that JT is significant drop off in price. Anze Kopitar (LA) – Has points in every game thus far with two goals and six assists in total. William Karlsson (VGK) – Yet to find the back of the net this season despite leading all skaters in high-danger scoring chances per 60. He does, however, have six assists. Elias Pettersson (VAN) – Slow start but had success against Detroit last season and is just $5,300 Ryan Johansen (NSH) – Just $4,700 skating on the top line and top power-play unit. RyJo has points in each of his games this season including two goals and two assists in his last two. Wing Mitch Marner (TOR) – Marner draws a great matchup as he looks to get going as the Wild have allowed the most fantasy points per game to right-wingers this season. Brock Boeser (VAN) – Love his salary here even though Detroit is stingy against right-wingers. Jonathan Marchessault (VGK) – Good upside with a high-volume shooter skating on the top line and top power-play unit. Kyle Connor (WPG) – Connor is averaging 12.70 shots per 60 minutes at 5v5 this season, which is top ten in the league. Phil Kessel (ARI) – Been extremely quiet thus far but at $4,800, he’s in a
NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 10/14
Key Skaters Patrick Kane (CHI) Chicago sucked ass the other night in a spot at home that they should have dominated, and that includes Patrick Kane. In an all-time good spot he seemingly didn’t show up. For whatever fucking reason
NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 10/12
Key Skaters Patrick Kane (CHI) After playing their first four games of the season on the road, the Jets came home to play their home opener the other night. Now, all of the sudden, they’re back on the road in Chicago against a Blackhawks team that lost a tough game, their home opener two nights ago against the Sharks. Kane has been one of the more consistent forwards in the league for what seems like an eternity and sure enough, he’s off to a good start with four points in his first two games skating over 20 minutes in each contest. Winnipeg is very weak defensively and is allowing a ton of scoring chances early on. This bodes well for Kane and the Hawks who will look to push the tempo. John Tavares (TOR) Toronto was embarrassed at home on Thursday night by Tampa despite a good game from Tavares, well, good period basically as all of his production came early on. Nonetheless, I expect Toronto to respond tonight in Detroit against the Red Wings and, just like Thursday, J.T. is substantially less expensive than Auston Matthews in tonight. Taylor Hall (NJ) While Boston is a good defensive team overall and a better team than the Devils there are a few factors to note here. The Bruins are back on the East coast after opening their season out West for four games with their last coming on Thursday. The Devils have barely had to travel at all thus far. Lastly, Hall’s price went from $7,200 last game against Edmonton to $6,300 tonight which literally makes zero sense. As one of the more established wingers in the Eastern conference, Hall should never be priced below 7K in my opinion. Hall has yet to record a goal but has 16 shots in four games. He’s surpassed 20 minutes of ice time in three of those matchups. Take advantage of the misprice on the former Hart trophy winner. Favorite Line Stacks Chicago Blackhawks First Line: Nylander – Toews – Kane I spoke on Kane above and I’ll reinforce that I love the spot for him tonight. He’s long been teamed up with captain Jonathan Toews who is priced extremely low for a top-line center in a good offense who also sees top power-play minutes. The discount we get with him will offset Kane’s high salary. Speaking of discounts, Alex Nylander at 4K is a supreme discount to lock in on this line. Once a prized prospect for the Buffalo Sabres, Nylander had a good preseason (as usual) and has a chance on the top line for Chicago to make an impact. Preferred Two-Player Pairing: Toews, Kane Toronto Maple Leafs Second Line: Kapanen – Tavares – Marner Same old story here. These three skated well early against Tampa before the Lightning just took over the game scoring seven goals en route to a lopsided victory. While, once again, the Matthews line (with Johnsson and Willie Nylander) are in play, the Tavares line is a better value to consider in this spot on the road. Preferred Two-Player Pairing: Tavares, Marner Dallas Stars First Line: Benn – Seguin – Radulov I’m on the record for a while now in saying that Braden Holtby is a fraud. When Holtby sees a surplus of shots, he generally crumbles and gives up goals in bunches. With a line consisting of Seguin, Benn, and Radulov there should be no shortage of shots. Through five games Seguin has 18 shots, Radulov 11, and Benn 13 while the trio has combined for four goals and three assists. All three skaters are together on the top power-play unit as well giving us full correlation in this home matchup for the Stars. Others to consider: Detroit Red Wings First Line: Mantha – Larkin – Bertuzzi Vegas Golden Knights First Line: Marchessault – Karlsson – Smith Value Line Stacks: Philadelphia Flyers First Line: Giroux – Hayes – Voracek Chicago Blackhawks Second Line: Debrincat – Strome – Shaw Calgary Flames Second Line: Tkachuk – Backlund – Mangiapane Top Positional Plays Center Auston Matthews (TOR) – Yes, I prefer Tavares because of his price, but AM34 has the safest floor of anyone so far this season. He has six goals in five games and at least four shots in all but one of those contests. Sean Couturier (PHI) – Through two games, Couts has a goal and nine shots while Vancouver has allowed just over 12 shots per game to centers through three games. Dylan Larkin (DET) – In a fast-paced game, Larkin will be the fastest skater on the ice. Toronto has been sub-par defensively against centers and Larkin has points in every game so far skating in 20 plus minutes in each contest and is less than 7K. Mark Scheifele (WPG) – Scheifele is off to a great start with eight points thus far and has three goals, five assists, and 14 shots in his last four games against Chicago who have been killed by centers early on. Jonathan Toews (CHI) – Mentioned above in the Hawks line stack. Brayden Schenn (STL) – Goals in each of his last three games and seeing impactful minutes at over 17 per game in all four games this season. Wing Patrik Laine (WPG) – Clearly comfortable skating with Scheifele and Wheeler (DON’T CHANGE THAT) with three goals, five assists, and nine shots over his last three games. Anthony Mantha (DET) – Big body in front of the net with tremendous speed and shooting ability. He has 21 shots in four games resulting in six goals thus far. Brendan Gallagher (MTL) – Still underpriced considering the shot volume and high-danger chances he brings. Alex Debrincat (CHI) – Good value on the top power-play unit in a game that should be high-scoring. Joe Pavelski (DAL) – He’s all the way down to $4,500 which is hard to believe for a guy that scored over 30 goals last season. Brandon Saad (CHI) – Leading