Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts
Week 1 is officially in the books and it’s time to evaluate some of the surprise poor performances around the NFL in Week 1. Several superstars who were expected to do big things fell flat on their faces. Will these players continue to struggle or will they right the ship? Let’s take a look at the Week 1 fantasy football busts and what we should do in Week 2. Quarterback Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) – The Ravens may have defeated the Houston Texans comfortably but there are many things to address in Baltimore. First of all, Baltimore’s running attack took a major hit as JK Dobbins went down with a season-ending torn Achilles. With Gus Edwards and Justice Hill filling in, it will be even more important for Lamar Jackson to bounce back after a dreadful debut to the season. Although he was efficient, finishing 17 of 22 on dropbacks, Jackson only accumulated 169 passing yards. He added 38 rushing yards on six attempts but fumbled twice, one resulting in a turnover. Despite not having Mark Andrews on the field, Jackson had one of the juiciest matchups heading into the opener but failed to live up to the hype. He produced two turnovers (one interception and a fumble) and failed to find the end zone. Jackson did develop a nice rapport with rookie wideout Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. even showed a few flashes. That said, fantasy owners will be hoping for a much better outing from their star quarterback on Sunday. Things will only get tougher for Jackson in Week 2 as the Ravens host their AFC North rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals. However, Jackson should get back on track despite a difficult matchup. Deshaun Watson’s numbers against the Bengals in poor weather should be encouraging for Jackson owners and the return of Mark Andrews should help the electric signal caller get back on track in Week 2. Fantasy owners shouldn’t overreact to Jackson’s dismal Week 1 performance. There are brighter days ahead. Week 2 Decision: Start Running Back D’Andre Swift (Philadelphia Eagles) – I am the first to admit that Swift’s Week 1 performance has me shaking in my boots. I thought he would be one of the biggest steals in fantasy football. But the Eagles didn’t give Swift the rock. The newest addition to the Philadelphia offense only managed two touches for a meager three yards. Despite the fact that Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch. Surprisingly, it was Kenneth Gainwell who absolutely dominated the touches in the backfield. We knew Gainwell would start but he also finished with 74 all-purpose yards on 18 touches. While we expected the Eagles to utilize Gainwell from time to time, nobody in their right mind expected that much of a difference in the workload. Swift only played approximately 35% of the Lions’ offensive snaps in 2022 and most thought that number would increase in his first year in Philly. However, the dynamic running back played just 19 of a possible 66 offensive snaps in Sunday’s 25-20 victory over the New England Patriots. Meanwhile, Gainwell turned his 41 snaps into a fairly productive outing and Boston Scott was even slightly in the mix (eight snaps). We will have to wait another week to see if Swift can get out of the dog house. However, I would recommend taking a wait-and-see approach after his uneventful Week 1 outing. Fantasy owners simply cannot trust him heading into Week 2 even if Penny is a scratch again against the Minnesota Vikings. It also doesn’t help that the Vikings allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in Week 1. Even if that was against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rachaad White finished with just 39 rushing yards on 17 carries as Tampa’s RB1. Things aren’t looking good for Swift heading into Week 2. Week 2 Decision: Sit Wide Receiver Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Higgins entered the season as perhaps the most talented WR2 in the entire NFL. Unfortunately, the weather was bad in Cinatinnati’s season-opening loss to the Cleveland Browns. And Higgins finished with an embarrassing goose egg. However, it was encouraging to see Burrow target the versatile wideout eight times despite missing each connection. I wouldn’t overanalyze this one. Joe Burrow is still an elite quarterback despite his terrible Week 1 performance. Higgins should still be the second option in the passing game behind Ja’Marr Chase. The volume was there so there’s no reason to get too worried just yet. Fire Higgins up in Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens. It’s not an easy matchup but Higgins can only improve from here, right? Week 2 Decision: Start Tight End Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) – It’s very surprising to see two members of the defending NFC Champions on this list. But Dallas Goedert was Week 1’s biggest bust at the tight end position after finishing with a whopping 0 fantasy points on just one target. The Patriots did a very good job defending Goedert but the weather didn’t do the big tight end any favors. The rain limited the Eagles’ offensive game plan and forced them to be an even more run-heavy team than they perhaps would have liked. That said, head coach Nick Siraianni made a point to mention Goedert’s lack of involvement in his post-game interview. “We can’t go a game without getting Goedert the football,” he said. Fantasy managers can rest assured that the Eagles will be working all week to find ways to get their playmaker the ball more in open space. Although Goedert will always be third in the pecking order behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Goedert should bounce back in Week 2 in what could be a high-scoring affair against the Minnesota Vikings. Fantasy owners should still start him with confidence as he should produce top-six numbers from the competitive tight end position. Week 2 Decision: Start The 2023 NFL season is underway but it’s not too late to get
Fantasy Football Recap Week 3
When you looked at this week’s schedule, there was some hope that we’d see a big uptick in fantasy scoring. Those hope got dashed pretty quickly, as you’ll see in this Fantasy Football Recap Week 3. It’s not that there weren’t some intriguing games and stat lines. It just felt like all the wrong guys were scoring. So many elite players were primed to have great matchups in the early slate, but that’s not exactly how it played out. Let’s look back on the fantasy football recap Week 3 and see what positives we can take away from a strange week of NFL action. Cold Open No matter how many hours of research you do during the week, sometimes there are “those” weeks. Week 3 got off to a slow start, setting the table for a long day of football. With Buffalo’s secondary decimated by injuries and facing a Miami offense that just went wild last week, I expected a lot of passing and points. Not to mention, that neither team has a running back score in either of their first two games. Naturally, that’s exactly how the game began. First, Devin Singletary and then Chase Edmonds got short scores to set the frustrating tone for the week. Right after that, David Montgomery got hurt, and Khalil Herbert naturally housed a score against the Texans. Those kinds of things are even more upsetting for analysts because we know that people rely on us for advice. Like when Edmonds has two stinkers in a row and you look at his usage plus a matchup against the Bills. Seems like a good plan to sit him, only to have him punch in a score on the first drive. Unfortunately, Montgomery wouldn’t be the only early injury. Tee Higgins, Amon Ra-St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Tua Tagovailoa all left their respective games. Fortunately, all but Wilson returned but the precedent of an ugly Sunday was set. Throwing in the Towel You can fade a bad game. I preached patience even after Week 2. That still seems too early to give up on guys. But when you get out of the gate with three shoddy performances in a row, it’s time to cut bait. Fantasy football isn’t the easiest game to accurately project, but that’s the game. I felt really good about our process and 2022 fantasy football draft rankings. But, it is time to admit defeat with a few of my preseason misses. Justin Fields has been absolutely brutal. He had a chance to salvage some fantasy value against a hapless Houston team, but Fields once again struggled. His inadequacies have torpedoed the entire Chicago offense. And there’s little recourse for the Bears’ new regime, which will have to target QB early in April. With Fields’ awful play, there’s simply no reason to roster TE Cole Kmet. WR Darnell Mooney should also be cut in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. Only in dynasty formats can you justify keeping either one of these guys around. Mooney got all of five targets in 59 snaps. Kmet got two and played the same number of downs. Matt Ryan showed some signs of decline last season but I figured Frank Reich could resurrect his career. Nope. Ryan entered Week 3 outside of the top-20 and had another pot outing until the fourth quarter. His poor play is also having a negative effect on Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor. That alone warrants Ryan being banned from fantasy rosters, but I suppose you can keep him around in Superflex formats. In a game where Mac Jones threw for 321 yards, Hunter Henry had one target. Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay haven’t been on the field very often, and when they have, they’ve had zero impact. New York’s new regime didn’t draft these guys, and fantasy managers who did should be looking elsewhere. Kenyan Drake was a healthy scratch and the Ravens scored 37. Backfield Breakdown With so few teams employing a workhorse running back, it is important for us to track how teams are dividing their backfield touches. Here are the fantasy opportunities from some of Sunday’s backfields. Opportunities means carries plus targets. Baltimore – J.K. Dobbins 26 snaps, 9 opp.; Justice Hill 28 snaps, 6 opp. Chicago – David Montgomery (INJ) 11 snaps, 3 opp; Khalil Herbert 38 snaps, 22 opp.; Trestan Ebner 15 snaps, 8 opp. Atlanta – Cordarrelle Patterson 35 snaps, 18 opp.; Tyler Allgeier 21 snaps, 7 opp. Buffalo – Devin Singletary 67(!) snaps, 19 opp.; Zack Moss 16 snaps, 5 opp.; James Cook 10 snaps, 6 opp. Detroit – D’Andre Swift 32 snaps, 11 opp.; Jamaal Williams 35 snaps, 21 opp. Green Bay – Aaron Jones 39 snaps, 16 0pp.; A.J. Dillon 33 snaps, 15 opp. Houston – Dameon Pierce 35 snaps, 22 opp.; Rex Burkhead 24 snaps, 8 opp. Jacksonville – James Robinson 44 snaps, 20 opp.; Travis Etienne 33 snaps, 16 opp. Kansas City – Jerick McKinnon 21 snaps, 8 opp.; Clyde Edwards-Helaire 25 snaps, 12 opp. Los Angeles Rams – Cam Akers 23 snaps, 11 opp.; Darrell Henderson 25 snaps, 5 opp. Miami – Raheem Mostert 24 snaps, 9 opp.; Chase Edmonds 19 snaps, 7 opp. New England – Rhamondre Stevenson 41 snaps, 17 opp.; Damien Harris 35 snaps, 14 opp. New York Jets – Breece Hall 42 snaps, 19 opp.; Michael Carter 36 snaps, 13 opp. Philadelphia – Miles Sanders 41 snaps, 16 opp.; Kenneth Gainwell 22 snaps, 3 opp.; Boston Scott 7 snaps, 2 opp. Washington – J.D. McKissic 41 snaps, 11 opp.; Antonio Gibson 34 snaps, 13 opp. Week 4 Preview Miami at Cincinnati (-1.5) Minnesota at New Orleans (+2) from London at 9:30 ET Seattle at Detroit (-6) New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3.5) Chicago at New York Giants (-2.5) Tennessee at Indianapolis (-3) Los Angeles Chargers at Houston (+6.5) Cleveland at Atlanta (+3) Washington at Dallas (-3) Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-7) Buffalo at Baltimore (+3) Arizona at Carolina (-1) Denver at Las Vegas (-1.5) New England at Green Bay (-8) Kansas City at Tampa Bay (+2.5) Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco (-2) The 2022 NFL season is well underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on
Fantasy Football Recap Week 2
It’s not that Week 2 didn’t have scoring or drama- it just all seemed to come in just a handful of games. For the most part, points were at a premium and that makes for a whacky fantasy slate. The Fantasy Football Recap Week 2 looks back at the carnage with an eye on Week 3. Regardless of how ugly the first two weeks may have been for your fantasy squad, it is far too early to panic. Keep proactively attacking the waiver wire and see how you can improve things. Try to figure out if your process is wrong or if it’s just bad luck. Be proactive, not reactive. Let’s look back on the fantasy football recap Week 2 and see how we can prepare to get a win next week. Zero RB I didn’t search for #ZeroRB on Twitter but pretty good guess there is some high-quality gloating. Christian McCaffrey was the sole 100-yard rusher on Sunday afternoon and he barely eclipsed triple digits. Aaron Jones joined him in the night game, but no other running back topped 90. Only nine running backs even produced a rushing score, and two of them were not even fantasy-relevant. Meanwhile, wide receivers dominated. A full six wideouts scored multiple touchdowns Sunday and 11 topped the century mark. Considering all the committee backfields and injuries, we old-school running back enthusiasts might need to adjust our strategies. While our precious rushers might eventually return to prominence, it’s hard to see the light at the end of that tunnel. Those pesky pass-catchers keep stealing it. Don’t Call It A Comeback What was I saying about a glimmer of hope? No doubt LL Cool J was pleased that his New York Giants were one of the teams to come from behind to pull out a late victory. But that field goal versus the Panthers had nothing on some of the other comebacks. New York trailed Cleveland 17-13 after three then both teams put the pedal to the metal in the fourth. The Jets ultimately prevailed both both teams combined for 30 fourth-quarter points. Arizona looked dead to rights down 23-7 in the fourth before scoring 16 unanswered in the final period and walking it off with a fumble return score in overtime. But the most bonkers contest was in Baltimore as the Dolphins were down 35-14(!) in the fourth quarter. Then TUA happened. Behind Tua Tagovailoa‘s 469 passing yards and team-record 6 TD strikes, Miami completed an amazing come-from-behind victory. The Dolphins had +2500 odds at one point in the fourth and persevered. On the other hand, it ties the Ravens’ team record for the largest blown lead. That last occurred in a loss to the Steelers back in 1997. This game alone accounted for 89.4% of the total fantasy production for the entire game. Ok, I made that stat up but that’s what it felt like. The takeaway here is what I hit on at the top. Even if you’re struggling and off to an 0-2 start, it’s too early to panic. Keep fighting and things should even out. Queue up Chuck Berry’s “You Never Can Tell.” Next Gen Guessing The NFL is way behind other sports when it comes to analytics. When they catch up, the game we all know is going to change dramatically. Until then, I like to peruse the NFL’s Next Gen stats. I found some interesting charts this week that I thought I’d share. The first person to tag me with the correct guesses in the FullTime Discord gets a prize. Backfield Breakdown The theme for this week seems to be the end of the workhorse running back. Even Jonathan Taylor was reduced to a mere nine carries against the…Jaguars? Clearly, it has become more important for us to track committee backfield and the fantasy opportunities from those teams. Here are the fantasy opportunities from some of Sunday’s backfields. Opportunities means carries plus targets. Atlanta – Cordarrelle Patterson 36 snaps, 11 opp.; Tyler Allgeier 19 snaps, 10 opp.; Avery Williams 15 snaps, 1 opp. Baltimore – Kenyan Drake 15 snaps, 6 opp.; Justice Hill 21 snaps, 3 opp.; Mike Davis 18 snaps, 5 opp. Cleveland – Nick Chubb 36 snaps, 20 opp.; Kareem Hunt 31 snaps, 15 opp. Dallas – Ezekiel Elliott 41 snaps, 17 opp.; Tony Pollard 24 snaps, 16 opp. Denver – Javonte Williams 47 snaps, 18 opp.; Melvin Gordon 23 snaps, 11 opp. Detroit – D’Andre Swift 31 snaps, 10 opp.; Jamaal Williams 21 snaps, 13 opp. Jacksonville – James Robinson 45 snaps, 25 opp.; Travis Etienne 26 snaps, 12 opp. Los Angeles Rams – Darrell Henderson 35 snaps, 10 opp.; Cam Akers 27 snaps, 18 opp. Miami – Chase Edmonds 36 snaps, 7 opp.; Raheem Mostert 39 snaps, 11 opp. New England – Damien Harris 27 snaps, 17 opp; Rhamondre Stevenson 42 snaps, 10 opp. New Orleans – Mark Ingram 25 snaps, 12 opp.; Tony Jones 34 snaps, 4 opp. New York Jets – Breece Hall 20 snaps, 8 opp.; Michael Carter 42 snaps, 12 opp. San Francisco – Jeff Wilson 37 snaps, 20 opp.; Tyrion Davis-Price 30 snaps, 14 opp. Seattle – Rashaad Penny 20 snaps, 6 opp.; Ken Walker 12 snaps, 7 opp. Washington – Antonio Gibson 40 snaps, 18 opp.; J.D. McKissic 34 snaps, 10 opp. Week 3 Preview Steelers at Browns (-3) Saints at Panthers (+2.5) Texans at Bears (-3) Chiefs at Colts (+6.5) Bills at Dolphins (+4.5) Lions at Vikings (-7) Ravens at Patriots (+3) Bengals at Jets (+4.5) Raiders at Titans (-1) Eagles at Commanders (+4) Jaguars at Chargers (-7) Rams at Cardinals (+4.5) Falcons at Seahawks (-1.5) Packers at Buccaneers (-3) 49ers at Broncos (-1.5) Cowboys at Giants (-3) The 2022 NFL season is well underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES
Fantasy Football Recap Week 1
The opening week of any NFL season is always the most difficult to handicap. 2022 proved no different as we had crazy second-half comebacks, numerous injuries, and even a tie game. Our Fantasy Football Recap Week 1 reflects back on a wild Sunday. As unpredictable as Week 1 was, the good news is that things should stabilize a bit. Sure, there will be some Bizarro weeks here and there, but now that we have live action for every team, it will be somewhat easier to predict. Here are some of the key fantasy football takeaways from a wild Week 1. Missed Opportunites Peyton Manning definitely wouldn’t approve of the showing by Sunday’s kickers. A full 14 missed kicks during the afternoon slate had dire consequences in a couple of games. It wasn’t all incompetence. Sloppy fields, blocks, and injuries factored in. Still, it’s frustrating to see kickers continue to have a negative impact on fantasy football outcomes. Props to the commissioners out there who have #bannedkickers. Beat the Books It was a challenging Sunday slate. However, we can take some solace in the fact that it was also a bad day for bookmakers. Favorites covered nine of the 15 games between Thursday and Sunday both straight up and against the spread. The under also hit in 10 of the 15 contests. Over bettors should feel fortunate to even get away with that kind of loss. Points were at a severe premium in the first half of the afternoon games. Only some crazy second-half outcomes salvaged a handful of games for fans seeking points. Travis Etienne’s First Game Overall a mixed bag in Travis Etienne’s first NFL game. On one hand, Etienne looked good, averaging 11.8 yards per carry and getting multiple red-zone looks. On the other hand, Etienne dropped a walk-in touchdown and committed a fumble that was brutal from a sports betting perspective. Travis Etienne’s receiving yard prop: 20.5 Etienne before this play: 24 receiving yards Etienne after this play and final stats: 18 receiving yards 🤮🤮🤮 pic.twitter.com/y2DALhT85J — Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) September 11, 2022 He was also outplayed by James Robinson, who out-touched Etienne 12-6. Still, we remain fans of Etienne’s skill set but even we need to lower expectations a bit. Tale of Two QBs I couldn’t help but be blown away at the contrast of two All-Pro quarterbacks who were breaking in a new receiving corps this week. Looking at Billy’s vacated targets report, the Chiefs had an NFL-high 345 vacated targets from 2021. Yet, Patrick Mahomes didn’t skip a beat. Mahomes completed 30-of-39 passes for 360 yards and five touchdowns en route to an overall QB1 finish in Week 1. Conversely, Aaron Rodgers, who had all 241 of Green Bay’s vacated targets come via the wide receiver group, was abysmal. Rodgers threw for 195 scoreless yards and tossed a pick as the Packers lost in Minnesota. Backfield Breakdown In addition to Jacksonville’s duo, several other teams seem firmly committed to using multiple backs. This puts extra emphasis on the few three-down backs that remain. It also means we have to pay attention to opportunities on a week-to-week basis. Here are the fantasy opportunities from some of Sunday’s backfields. Opportunities means carries plus targets. Chicago – David Montgomery 21, Khalil Herbert 10 Cleveland – Nick Chubb 23, Kareem Hunt 15 Detroit – D’Andre Swift 18, Jamaal Williams 13 Green Bay – A.J. Dillon 16, Aaron Jones 10 Houston – Rex Burkhead 18, Dameon Pierce 10 Kansas City – Isiah Pacheco 12, Clyde Edwards-Helaire 10, Jerrick McKinnon 8 Las Vegas – Josh Jacobs 11, Brandon Bolden 5 (injured) New England – Damien Harris 12, Rhamondre Stevenson 10 (Ty Montgomery 36% snap rate) New York Jets – Michael Carter 19, Breece Hall 16 Philadelphia – Mile Sanders 15, Kenneth Gainwell 9, Boston Scott 4 Key Injuries Always an unfortunate part of the game. These are some of the fantasy-relevant injuries that occurred Sunday. We’ll have updates as news comes in throughout the week. Dak Prescott – broken thumb (out 6-8 weeks) Najee Harris – possible high-ankle sprain Elijah Mitchell – knee (Possible MCL) Keenan Allen – hamstring Mac Jones – back (day-to-day) Chris Godwin – hamstring Wan’Dale Robinson – knee Brandon Bolden – hamstring T.J. Watt – chest Week 2 Preview Chargers at Chiefs (-3) Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5) Commanders at Lions (-1) Colts at Jaguars (+4.5) Jets at Brown (-6) Panthers at Giants (-2.5) Falcons at Rams (-10.5) Seahawks at 49ers (-9.5) Texans at Broncos (-10) Patriots at Steelers Cardinals at Raiders (-3.5) Bears at Packers (-9.5) Titans at Bills (9.5) Vikings at Eagles (-3) The 2022 NFL season is well underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES & UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter – Breaking Fantasy news & site updates! Like and share our new Facebook