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NFL Mock Draft: By Betting Odds
Written By: Jaime Eisner, Frankie Taddeo, a collaboration presented by The Draft Network. Apr 22, 2024 • 1:01 am As the 2024 NFL Draft draws closer, the volume of mock draft posts increases exponentially. It’s a wonderful time of year, honestly, and we can see all sorts of creativity play out. There are predictive and “what I would do” mocks. There are mocks with trades, mocks without them, best player available mocks, and so much more. However, this mock will be a bit different than all of those. The players selected by each team are a reflection of available betting odds for teams, players, position groups, etc. That exercise is meant to illustrate what a chalk-like draft would look like. In addition to the selections, value plays are discussed to help give bettors a potential edge. So let’s take a look at what a first-round 2024 NFL mock draft looks like based only on betting odds with value and sharp money plays included. Reminder: Betting props often get taken down early—sometimes 48 hours in advance of Round 1. Be sure to get your wagers in well in advance. 2024 NFL Mock Draft 1. Chicago Bears (via CAR) Caleb Williams, QB, USC — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.01, Dynasty 1.07 There’s no suspense here. Caleb Williams is -20000 at DraftKings to be the No. 1 overall pick to the Bears. Don’t waste your time or money betting or fading this pick. 2. Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.03, Dynasty 1.12 Jayden Daniels is -130 at FanDuel to be the second quarterback taken and the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels was heavily favored to be the second player off the board up until the middle of last week. Despite the massive odds swing, the dual-threat signal-caller is still favored to become the second QB off the board on Thursday night in MoTown. 3. New England Patriots Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.05, Dynasty 2.08 The Patriots need to reset their quarterback clock by taking a rookie passer in the 2024 NFL Draft. The betting markets suggest Drake Maye is their answer. Maye is a -110 favorite at FanDuel to be the No. 3 overall pick in the draft. Value Play: J.J. McCarthy (+380; FanDuel) — With so little information available about who the No. 2 overall pick will be, there isn’t much value in betting on either Maye or Daniels. If you want to take a flier, it’s possible either the Patriots or a trade-up team like the Giants, Vikings, or Broncos like McCarthy as the overall QB3. 4. Arizona Cardinals Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.01, Superflex 1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr. is -200 at DraftKings to be selected fourth overall. The most sought-after target in 2024 Fantasy Football Dynasty leagues is heavily favored (-500) to be the first non-QB off the board. Fantasy football managers meet the newest weapon for Arizona QB Kyler Murray IF the Cardinals do not trade back with a QB-needy team looking to move up. 5. Los Angeles Chargers Malik Nabers, WR, LSU — Fantasy Profile – Dynasty 1.02, Superflex 1.04 Like Arizona, this is a potential trade-up spot for a quarterback. However, if the Chargers stick and pick here, the only debate will be a wide receiver versus offensive tackle. Malik Nabers is the +200 favorite at MGM to be the Chargers’ selection. Los Angeles parted ways with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, leaving the roster in desperate need of a top wide receiver. Some in the NFL have Nabers as the WR1 in the class but he’s no lower than WR3. Value Play: J.J. McCarthy (+450; FanDuel) — If the Chargers want a new right tackle, I expect they’ll trade down to select one. A trade-up from any of several teams below them would almost certainly be for a quarterback. The Chargers can easily move back to pick 11, 12, or 13 and still get their guy and a bunch of draft capital. 6. New York Giants J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan — Fantasy Profile – Superflex 1.08, Dynasty 3.02 After seeing both Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. come off the board just ahead of them in this scenario, the betting odds have the former Michigan standout favored to land with Big Blue. In fact, McCarthy is -900 at DraftKings to come off the board in the top 10, so we will stop his fall here. 7. Tennessee Titans Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame It feels like the No. 7 pick has been earmarked for Joe Alt for quite some time. The Titans have obvious needs along their offensive line and many regard Alt as the top overall offensive lineman in the 2024 class. When a team need matches talent, a perfect fit is born. Alt is a -175 favorite to be the No. 7 pick at DraftKings. Outside of Caleb Williams to the Bears at No. 1, this has been the most mocked player-team fit. Value Play: Taliese Fuaga (+1000; Caesars) — Don’t expect anyone but Alt to be drafted in this spot if he’s still on the board, but what if Jim Harbaugh gets frisky at No. 5 and takes him? Sportsbooks appear to think the Titans will pivot to wide receiver, but I’m not so sure. The need on the offensive line is massive and Fuaga is a stud in his own right that could start for Tennessee right away. 8. Atlanta Falcons Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama The betting odds have former Crimson Tide standout Dallas Turner coming off the board to the Falcons at eighth overall. He’s the +150 favorite at Caesars to come off the board here. Value Play: Byron Murphy II (+1400, DraftKings) — Respected Money in Vegas says Atlanta is high on Texas DT Byron Murphy II. Don’t be shocked to see Terry Fontenot trade back a few spots and grab Murphy