Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report
After the first week of the NFL season, seven running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. There were 21 other backs that finished between 10.00 and 17.50 fantasy points. This Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report
The Chargers (40/234/3) had the most success running the ball, followed by Cleveland (40/206/1), San Francisco (34/188/1), and the Jets (28/172/1). The 16 games resulted in 22 scores on the ground, with four offenses hitting pay dirt three times (LAR, LAC, BAL, and DAL). The Vikings had the worst rushing offense (17/41), while Pittsburgh (10/41) and Las Vegas (29/61) ranked 31st and 30th.j
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,500)
It took McCaffrey one game (169 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 25 touches) to show his edge at the running back position. He hit on a 65-yard score to set up his great day. The 49ers had him in the field for 85% of their snaps. That was a total he only hit three times in 2022 with San Francisco. Last year, McCaffrey averaged 20.98 FPPG in PPR formats, with his one impact game (183 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) coming on the road against the Rams.
Los Angeles was league-average defending running backs in 2022 (404/1,753/12 with 79 catches for 665 yards and two scores on 103 targets). Three offenses posted more than 40.00 fantasy points from their backs.
McCaffrey is a high-floor player. But his high salary requires well over 30.00 fantasy points to be in play in Week 2. Ultimately, any decision to play him comes from finding value at other positions…
WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2
The opening week of the 2023 NFL season was filled with surprises. A good percentage of those were poor ones. That includes both participants in tonight’s games. Hopefully, both squads can turn it around, but we’ll dig deep in our
Philadelphia managed to pull out a win in Week 1 but had an underwhelming offensive showing in New England. Meanwhile, the Vikings were stunned at home, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17.
Both teams are loaded with fantasy-relevant talent. The main question is will we see both offenses rebound? The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2 analyzes the game with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 3 | 31 | 2 | 20 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 23 | 14 | 22 | 8 |
Both squads fought in close matchups in their openers. Philadelphia’s potent offense was held to 154 passing yards by Bill Belcichik’s defense. The Eagles were just 4-of-13 on third downs and held to 4.1 yards per play.
Expect things to rebound for Philly on Thursday. Turnovers did the Vikings in last week. Minnesota outplayed the Buccaneers but lost the turnover battle 3-0. For the Vikings to have a shot against a tough Eagles team on the road, they must clean up that part of their game.
Minnesota enters this game as a 6.5-point underdog. The over/under of 49 is the second-highest of the slate.
Let’s break down what that means from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective in our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2.
How will Thursday’s Vikings vs. Eagles game go?
To get Jody’s BEST BET and finish reading this content…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report
After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the
Click Here to subscribe to FullTime Fantasy
Click here to subscribe to FullTime DFS
If you have an active subscription, please log in
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1
Welcome to the 2023 NFL season! To kick off another glorious campaign, the NFL schedule makers did us a solid by matching up two of the league’s top offensive clubs. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the upstart
With Travis Kelce ailing, there is some uncertainty about this game. That has caused some books to remove this contest altogether. However, Kansas City is still a 6.5 -point favorite. The total dipped a point to 52.5.
Subsequently, we will update our preview when there is clarity. Until then, here is FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Detroit Lions | 4 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 1 |
* above ranks are from the 2022 season
Starting in Week 2, teams playing on Thursday are disadvantaged by playing on short rest. However, that doesn’t apply in Week One. Both high-powered offenses are well-rested. This game still boasts the highest over/under total for the slate.
The fantasy football ramifications for this one can’t be understated. Both the Chiefs and Lions fielded top-5 offenses last season. Also, fantasy football rosters are peppered with skill position players from both squads.
Andy Reid is noted for success with extra time to prepare. Reid’s teams are 27-4 after a bye. The Chiefs have won eight consecutive season openers under Reid and are 9-1 overall in Week 1. In those eight victories, Kansas City has averaged a whopping 36.4 points per game.
That is going to be a real problem for Dan Campbell’s Lions. Detroit hasn’t won in Week 1 since 2017. However, that hasn’t been all bad from a fantasy perspective. Detroit might be 0-2 under Campbell in Week One, but the Lions have averaged 34 points per game.
With that history and the abundance of skill position talent on both sides, the 2023 season should get off to a bang. Subsequently, this is a game with major fantasy ramifications.
How will Thursday’s Lions vs. Chiefs game go?
To get Jody’s BEST BET and finish reading this content…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Eagles – 5 Over/Under: 45.0 Philadelphia comes a sensational season in 2022, but they finished one step short of greatness. Jalen Hurts offers power running with developing value in the passing game. The Eagles have a top offensive line, and their defense created plenty of pressure on the quarterback last season. Philly has three excellent receiving options (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert) while adding D’Andre Smith in the offseason. New England is struggling to find their offensive identity after losing Tom Brady a few seasons ago. The Patriots have talent on defense, and they want to run the ball to control the clock. Mac Jones is a much better player than most believe. He can’t reach elite status without better play and production from his receiving corps. Rhamondre Stevenson will get plenty of touches this season, while Ezekiel Elliott brings experience off the bench. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts Hurts continues to be a beast in the run game, highlighted by his stats in 2022 (165/760/13) despite missing two weeks. The improvement in his receiving options last year led to career-highs in completions (306), pass attempts (460), passing yards (3,701), passing touchdowns (22), yards per pass attempts (8.0), and completion rate (66.5). He passed for 300 yards or more in five matchups (333/1, 340/3, 380/3, 315/0, and 301/1), lifting him to third in quarterback scoring (423.05) in four-point passing touchdown formats. Hurts scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (37.35, 31.00, 30.05, 31.25, 31.35, 38.20, 32.55, 39.5, and 45.20) in nine of his 18 starts (including the postseason). New England ranked seventh defending quarterback (19.16 FPPG), with failure in two matchups (30.70 and 35.50 fantasy points). Quarterbacks rushed for 322 yards on 70 carries vs. the Patriots with two scores. To reach a winning score in Week 1, Hurts must score more than 30.00 fantasy points. It’s not the best matchup, but he is still a coin flip in any week due to his high floor in the run game and his exceptional receiving options. D’Andre Swift Swift appeared to kick down the fantasy door in Week 1 (15/144/1 with three catches for 31 yards) of 2022. Unfortunately, Detroit only gave him 17 touches over the following two games, leading to 133 combined yards with one score and five catches. A shoulder issue cost him three weeks plus a shallow role over the next five matchups (23/61/2 with 16 catches for 109 yards and one touchdown). Swift gained 453 yards with three touchdowns and 24 catches on 73 touches over his final six games. He finished the year ranked 21st in running back scoring (191.10) in PPR formats, with three weeks of success (26.50, 21.10, and 27.70 fantasy points). The Lions only had him on the field for 34.7% of their plays in 2022, which invites a higher ceiling with a higher role and a healthy season. The Eagles running backs had only 48 catches for 262 yards and no catches on 61 targets last season. Philadelphia should give the most touches in Week 1, but Swift doesn’t appear to have upside in scoring in close or catching many balls. To score 22.00 fantasy points, he needs a touchdown with more than 100 combined yards and about five catches. A three-back rotation isn’t his friend. Kenneth Gainwell With the Eagles’ abandoning the running back position in the passing game last season, Gainwell finished with 409 combined yards with four touchdowns and 23 catches. His only fantasy game of value (12/112/1 with one catch for nine yards) came in the first round of the postseason. There has been positive talk about Gainwell over the summer, but his role/opportunity is unclear. More of a gamble while needing 16.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to pay off. A.J. Brown The Eagles threw the ball 81 more times than I expected to their wide receivers in 2022, giving Brown a much better opportunity. He finished with career-highs in catches (88), receiving yards (1,496), and targets (145) while scoring 11 touchdowns and gaining an impressive 17.0 yards per catch. Brown gained 20 or more yards on 26.1% of his catches. His best output came in five games (10/155, 6/156/3, 8/119/2, 9/181, and 6/103). He averaged 8.5 targets last year. Based on his salary and outcomes in 2022, Brown would have filled his salary bucket 20% of the time over his 20 games played. Wide receivers had 207 catches for 2,688 yards and 15 touchdowns on 338 targets against New England in 2022. I don’t expect a 30.00 fantasy game, so I’ll look for upside elsewhere. DeVonta Smith Last year, Smith saw his opportunity grow by over 30%, leading to an exceptional year (95/1,196/7 on 136 targets). He caught 69.9% of his chances while being an impact player from Week 15 to Week 17 (5/126, 8/113/2, and 9/115) when fantasy championships were on the line. Smith gained more than 100 yards in three other matchups (8/169/1, 5/102/1, and 7/100). His season started with a goose egg on four targets, with emptiness in three other contests (3/17, 5/23, 2/22, and 2/36). Over his final 12 starts (including the postseason), Smith had 70 catches for 951 yards and six touchdowns on 105 targets. Smith needs about 29.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to finish as an edge play in Week 1. He reached that threshold twice (30.90 and 31.30 – 10% of the time) last season. I expect more big plays in
NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bears – 2.5 Over/Under: 43.5 The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him
Betting Line: Bears – 2.5
Over/Under: 43.5
The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him with their new Love. The summer reports have been positive for Jordan Love, especially his connection with Christian Watson. The running back position remains in the hands of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Green Bay added WR Jaylen Reed and TE Luke Musgrove to improve the depth of their passing options.
The Bears have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but they have the tools to be a much better offense in 2023. DJ Moore is an upgrade at wideout, and a healthy Darnell Mooney paired with Cole Kmet gives Justin Fields the weapons to push much higher in his pass production. He remains a beast running the ball. Chicago will rotate in three backs out of the gate.
Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.
The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love
- Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy.
- In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts.
- He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown).
- The Bears ranked 26th in quarterback defense (21.36 FPPG). Despite their lower rankings, only one quarterback posted an impact game (39.85 fantasy points). On the positive side, seven quarterbacks scored between 24.90 and 28.90 fantasy points.
- Love is priced in a favorable range, and he does have one explosive wideout. Let the “Magic” happen.
Aaron Jones
- Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59).
- He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches).
- Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games.
- In Week 2, he posted an impact game (170 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) vs. the Bears.
- Chicago had the second-worst defense against running backs.
- The Packers will rotate in two backs, and Love may not get Jones as many targets as in the past with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
- He needs a 25.00 fantasy point game to be in the mix. I’ll take the under…
To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Commanders – 7 Over/Under: 39.0 The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is
Betting Line: Commanders – 7
Over/Under: 39.0
The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is on the PUP list with no clear timetable to return to the starting lineup. Incoming rookie Clayton Tune looks poised to start in Week 1 after getting drafted in the fifth round this year. James Conner is the lead back with minimal competition for snaps. Zack Ertz is trending toward a sit in Week 1. Arizona will feature Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the passing game. They hope Michael Wilson can handle their WR3 role at some point in the season.
Washington has a top defense with a developing quarterback (Sam Howell) who will be making his second career start. The change at offensive coordinator could lead to a bump in production at running back in the passing game, rewarding Antonio Gibson. Brian Robinson is their power running with the inside track to score in close. A turf toe issue may keep Terry McLaurin on the sideline in Week 1. For now, Jahan Dotson assumes the lead wide receiver role, and Curtis Samuel gets a bump in chances.
Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.
The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).
Arizona Cardinals
Clayton Tune
- Clayton Tune was Arizona’s shot at a future quarterback. His mechanics need work to improve his accuracy under duress and on the move. He can read defenses, but his arm doesn’t always have the fire to win in tight coverage.
- Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. He was also active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
- I don’t know if he will start with the Cardinals signing Joshua Dobbs and releasing Colt McCoy.
- Washington had a league-average defense vs. quarterbacks in 2022 (18.84 FPPG).
- Tune has to walk before being considered to start any format. I have a feeling he will make progress as the season moves on if Arizona gives him starting snaps.
James Conner
- Conner finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games last season. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18, he had a shin injury.
- From Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
- The Cardinals will give him 15+ touches with some value in catches. The lack of quarterback play is a significant concern for…
To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5 Over/Under: 41.0 The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting
Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5
Over/Under: 41.0
The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting the year third on the depth chart. San Francisco has the best all-around running back (Christian McCaffrey) in the game, with three productive pieces (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle) at receiver. Their star DE Nick Bosa wants a new deal, and he has yet to report to the team. The 49ers need his pass rush (34 sacks over his last 33 games) to maintain their high ranking on defense.
The Steelers struggled to score points (308), with Kenny Pickett assuming the quarterback duties after Ben Roethlisberger retired. The Steelers’ offense has depth at running back (Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren) and the talent to move the ball via the pass with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. The key to all players is increased production by Pickett.
Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.
The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
- Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts at Iowa. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
- Over his eight full starts, Purdy attempted more than 30 passes in only two games (MIA – 37 and @LV – 35). He had a floor of two touchdowns in his first in seven matchups while delivering one impact game (348/4).
- His completion rate (67.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) rank highly in the NFL.
- Purdy saw his season end in the Super Bowl due to an injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February.
- Pittsburgh was about league-average defending quarterbacks (19.59 FPPG) last season, but two offenses posted impact games (32.40 and 32.25). They played without their top pass rusher (T.J. Watt) for seven games.
- Despite his success last year, Purdy was a modified game manager. He has to prove his elbow is healthy before riding him in the daily space. The 49ers have plenty of receiving weapons, so I can’t totally write him off in Week 1.
Christian McCaffrey
- Over his final nine games with the 49ers, McCaffrey gained 1,066 yards with 10 touchdowns and 39 catches, an average of 18.94 FPPG in PPR formats.
- His salary requires 35.00 fantasy points at DraftKings for him to be worth his investment. He posted one impact game (40.60), with three high-floor showings (28.60, 29.30, and 31.30).
- Pittsburgh gave up six receiving scores to running back in 2022, but they limited the damage in catches (64) and receiving yards (523). Their defense held backs to 4.2 yards per carry with seven scores on the ground.
- McCaffrey isn’t the workhorse he once was with the Panthers, but he will get plenty of chances to make plays. His pass-catching ability set a nice floor while needing multiple scores to pay off his top-tier salary
To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.
GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.
NFL Week 1 Jaguars at Colts: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Jaguars at Colts: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Jaguars – 4.5 Over/Under: 45.5 The Jaguars have an ascending offense led by Trevor Lawrence. He had growth in all areas in his sophomore season, but he lacked big plays (only three completions of 40 yards or more). Calvin Ridley looks locked and loaded to have a big year after sitting on the sideline since the fifth week of 2021. Last year, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram had career seasons in their first year with the Jaguars. Travis Etienne looks poised to push higher up the running back rankings, even with Tank Bigsby commanding some touches in his rookie campaign. Indianapolis had a black cloud hanging over their preseason due to Jonathan Taylor wanting to be traded. After placing him on the injured reserve for four games, the Colts lack identity at running back. Anthony Richardson will get plenty of carries in his first NFL start, but can he throw the ball well enough early in his career to deliver wins for Indy? The combination of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs has an upside feel. The question is whether or not Richardson will attempt more than 30 passes in many games to support his top receivers in the fantasy market. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence Lawrence finished seventh in quarterback scoring (20.83 FPPG) in 2022 while delivering two impact games (37.10 and 32.00) in fantasy points. In two starts vs. the Colts, he gained 432 combined yards with five scores. The addition of Calvin Ridley gives a higher chance of delivering passing touchdowns and adding length to his yards per pass attempt (7.0 in 2022 and 6.0 in 2021). Lawrence adds value to his stat line by running the ball (73/334/2 and 62/291/5). Indy allowed 25 passing touchdowns last year with 10 interceptions and 44 sacks. I don’t see this game turning into a shootout due to the Colts’ lack of an explosive passing quarterback. Lawrence has the tools to shine, and he may hit on a 50+ yard touchdown in this matchup. His salary requires at least 25.00 fantasy points to be viable. I expect Lawrence to finish close to this number in Week 1. Travis Etienne The Jaguars ran the ball 32.3 times a game in the preseason, leading to 420 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Etienne rushed for more than 100 yards in six games last year (including in the playoffs). He scored over 20.00 fantasy points in only three games (25.20, 26.60, and 23.00). Jacksonville gave him 20+ touches in five matchups. He finished 17th in running back scoring (208.10) despite a slow start over his first four games (34/144 and 8/81), while James Robinson (51/230/3 with 6/33/1) played well over the first three weeks. The Jaguars will rotate in a second back, leading to Etienne seeing about 60% of the team’s snaps. To reach a winning score in more weeks, Etienne must score more often and be more active in the passing game. Not ideal for Week 1, but he has the wheels to hit on a long TD, keeping in the explosive mix. Tank Bigsby Over his last 25 games at Auburn, Bigsby rushes for 2,069 yards and 20 touches on 402 carries while chipping in the passing game (51/364 on 76 targets). He ranked third in the preseason in rushing yards (159) on 28 carries. Bigsby didn’t score while losing one ball at the goal line. I get the buzz in the preseason, but Etienne is the dynamic back in this offense. He is overpriced in Week 1 for his expected opportunity. Calvin Ridley Over the summer, Ridley flashed speed and quickness in training camp while offering elite route running. He continues to shoot up draft boards, and I support his movement. When at his best in 2020 (90/1,374/9 on 143 targets), Ridley was the fifth highest scoring wideout (283.90). He gained more than 100 yards in eight games (9/130/2, 7/109/2, 5/110, 8/136, 5/108, 8/124/1, 10/163/1, and 5/130). The Jaguars’ wide receiver had 238 catches for 2,670 yards and 19 touchdowns on 369 targets last year. The addition of Ridley will undoubtedly push them higher in all categories in 2023. Based on his salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, Ridley should glow like a beacon in the night. Ridley needs a 7/100/1 game to place him in the money in the DFS market. His one negative is the Jaguars may not need to throw the ball much in the second half. Read more about the FullTime Fantasy’s staff feelings about Calvin Ridley in 2023 here. Christian Kirk Kirk set career highs in catches (84), receiving yards (1,108), touchdowns (8), and targets (133) in his first year with the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Ridley is now the true WR1 for Jacksonville. On the positive side, Kirk will see weaker coverage. He gained over 100 yards in three games (6/117, 9/105/2, and 6/104/1) in 2022 with three other 20+ fantasy weeks (6/78/2, 8/76/1, and 6/99/1) in PPR formats. Kirk only had 11 targets in his two games (6/78/2 and 4/24/1) vs. the Colts. With Ridley expected to be popular in the DFS market in Week 1, Kirk could be the against-the-grain play. His salary requires about 22.00 fantasy points to be an option. Zay Jones Jones outperformed expectations in 2022 (82/823/5 on 121 targets) while working close to the line of scrimmage (10.0 yards per catch). He posted two impact games (11/145 and 6/109/3) plus three competitive
NFL Week 1 Texans at Ravens: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Texans at Ravens: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Ravens – 9.5 Over/Under: 44.0 Baltimore has a primo matchup for their offense in Week 1, and Lamar Jackson has a much better receiving corps heading into 2023. Zay Flower has been getting plenty of hype in training camp for his speed and quickness, and Rashod Bateman looks ready to shine out of the gate. The Ravens have a stud tight end (Mark Andrews) with plenty of firepower at the position off the bench. Baltimore will run the ball a lot against Houston’s run defense, which ranked poorly in 2022. The Texans stroll into this matchup with a high-upside rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud). They upgraded their tight end position in the offseason by signing Dalton Schultz. Houston has a young group of wideouts – Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and John Metchie that will give defenses fits as the season progresses. With Baltimore expected to have success scoring, the Texans will have to air the ball out to stay in the game. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Houston Texans C.J. Stroud Stroud makes his first start in the NFL vs. Ravens defense that ranked 26th in passing yards allowed while minimizing the damage in passing TDs (20). Baltimore did get after the quarterback (48 sacks) in 2022. Over his final 25 starts at Ohio State, Stroud threw 85 touchdown passes with only 12 interceptions. He offered minimal value in the run game. Houston has some intriguing young wide receivers that should help move the chains. Baltimore had a top-tier run defense last year, pointing to the Texans needing to finish drives with passing touchdowns in the red zone. I don’t see a difference-maker gain by Stroud. He needs about 250 passing yards and three scores to pay off. I expect him to be on a low percentage of rosters, making him worth a dart or two. Dameon Pierce Pierce played well in his rookie season (220/939/4 with 30 catches for 165 yards and one touchdown), but he was worthless in the fantasy market after Week 10 (55/167/1 with eight catches for 39 yards) while missing the final four games with an ankle injury. His pass-protecting skills are below par, pointing to Pierce standing on the sideline on passing downs. Houston will rotate in a second back, limiting the ceiling of Pierce. A top run defense should limit his scoring upside. Pierce almost needs 100 yards rushing and two scores to pay off. I have him in my fade column in the DFS market in Week 1 Devin Singletary Most Dameon Pierce supporters don’t respect Singletary. He’s gained over 1,000 combined yards in back-to-back seasons with the high-scoring Bills. Singletary averaged 38.7 catches over the past three seasons with some value in scoring (14 combined touchdowns in 2021 and 2022). Game flow may favor him in this matchup. He scored over 18.00 fantasy points in PPR formats twice last season. Nice Collins In the early draft season, Collins ranked 54th at wide receiver, translating to just over 7.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues last year. He has three career scores over his 24 games with Houston while averaging 2.9 catches for 39 yards. Last year, Collins scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in one game (5/49/1). His size (6’4” and 215 lbs.) gives Stroud a big target at the goal line, and Collins worked more as a big play receiver (17.8 yards per catch) in college. He needs the best game of his career to be winning play. I’ll pass due to Houston expected to rotate in four wideouts plus service Dalton Schultz with targets at tight end. Robert Woods Veteran wide receiver with an excellent three-year run with the Rams from 2018 to 2020 (86/1,219/6, 90/1,134/2, and 90/936/6). Wood also had success rushing the ball (266/3,289/14) over this span. A torn ACL cost him eight games in 2021, followed by a quiet year with the Titans (53/527/2). At age 31, his best days are behind him. Woods has the resume and experience to post a 5/50/1 game that works for his Week 1 salary. More of a gamble than a winning play in the DFS market. John Metchie The Texans drafted Metchie in the second round in 2022, but he missed all of last season with a battle with promyelocytic leukemia. The year off did help him recover from a torn ACL with Alabama. In his best season in college, Metchie caught 96 balls for 1,142 yards and eight scores on 133 targets. His stock should rise as the second moves on, but without a starting job, he would only be a flier in the DFS market. Tank Dell Dell was a beast over his final two seasons (90/1,329/12 and 109/1,398/17) at Houston. His skill set and quickness point to a slot role with the Texans in his rookie year. Dell is undersized (5’8” and 165 lbs.), but he looks ready to handle the next step in his career. Dell had a 5/65/1 game in the preseason before being limited with a slight hamstring issue. For someone looking for a $3,000 salary savior at DraftKings, he should have the opportunity to be a winning play based on game flow. Dalton Schultz Schultz blossomed into a top-12 tight end over the past three seasons at Dallas (63/615/4, 78/808/8, and 57/577/5). The Texans’ tight ends had 77 catches for 959 yards and eight touchdowns on 130 targets in 2022. Schultz scored 19.00 fantasy points or more in three (19.10, 24.60,