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The Ambush – NFL Week 6 DFS plays from Steve Renner

Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS?   These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays.    In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups. Last Week:   Rodgers (won the Milli-Maker, top QB on the slate.  BAM).   Ty Montgomery (DUD),  Kenn Golloday (Solid), Zach Ertz (Solid) Daily Fantasy Sports and Fantasy Sports in general should be fun.   We should have fun with the bold calls and the banter back and forth between folks (touts, subs, etc.) who are enjoying the great sports and the fantasy games that we have created around them.  Those of you who have followed me know that I really focus on a couple sports specifically MLB, NFL, NHL …. I don’t write content for NBA and I while I have done College content it’s not my primary sport by any stretch.  I’m not a PGA guy, I’m not a NASCAR guy, etc…   Why?  Well, I don’t enjoy those secondary sports as much.  The person bringing you content should be PASSIONATE about the sport they’re resarching and playing — yes, you HAVE to be a player of the sport you are writing about to have any credibility.  I am a fan first in all methods and we should remember to keep things fun.  But something came to me the other day when thinking about my article this week. I’m not writing just for fun.  No.  I enjoy it.  I enjoy the sport.  I enjoy fantasy. But let’s be clear.  I am writing and analyzing to make money and to make you money.  And we have to seperate our favorite/fun plays from the ones that we identify as the correct plays for a given week.  I wanted to re-iterate that the picks you are hearing are the ones I truly believe in.  And it’s gonna be more evident than ever this week in my picks as there’s a ton of players here that I’m not exactly fond of most of the time but this week I believe them to be the right plays…  I’m sure you trust me already, but I just wanted to point this out again….   After all, when have you known me to be a homer?     THE AMBUSH PLAYS QB:  KIRK COUSINS While you were sleeping on the Quarterback spot, I’m out here running an AMBUSH onside kick these last two weeks….    There are two guys that are going to dominate the ownership at Quarterback this week and they’re in the same game.  Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan.  There’s a very good chance with them being in the same game that we see a situation where either both go off or both flop.  It’s a game that has the highest total on the board this week and features two of the worst passing defenses in the league so far this season.  So let’s play this out for a minute, okay?   If the game blows up and Winston/Ryan are going off then it really doesn’t matter a ton which one you have in logical sense (although I have a take on that later on, but just go with the general though here for a minute).  So if Winston comes in around 30% owned and Ryan is 20% owned then that means half the field has a good QB in tournaments.  Yes, I think they’re that high and in cash games they’re going to be close to 70-80% of the ownership.   So, again, if the game is going off both are going well and any other QB is basically negated.  But if the game is a dud.  More pounts, lower scoring, running back dominated or even a blowout on one side, then we’re seeing a situation where they’re both negated.  The blowout QB is going to have less of a ceiling and obvious the guy getting blown out is having a bad day.  So you’re either going Winston because he is the cheaper of the two or getting completely off the game in general. Now….  Let’s address this mediocre QB I soberly have decided to put into my article that I spend plenty of time each week putting together.   Mr. Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings.   Spare me the You like that bullshit. I will go to my grave that this is a mediocre Quarterback.  But what do mediocre Quarterbacks do?  They feast on below average defenses.  The Cardinals have one cornerback on defense who can cover and typically when they’re matched up against a team with multiple elite WR weapons like the Vikings have with Diggs and Thielen they will struggle as it’s a lopsided matchup.  Thielen should feast against the Cardinals and this is the week that Kyle Rudolph gets into the box as he is the guy the Vikings use in the red zone and not Lat Murray or the return of Dalvin Cook.  Cousins going for 300+ yards and 3 TD today is going to be the target here and I think he gets this as it’s a relatively easy matchup for him.  The Vikings running game has not gotten going and with an offensive line that is shuffling I think they’ll end up with more passing situations than folks imagine here.  Cousins is the same price range as Matt Ryan this week on DraftKings but will be about 2% owned. I can’t believe it.  But, Kirky Cousins is my favorite QB play off the Winston/Ryan chalk. Where I am using him:   In DFS which is depressing enough, but $100 and up SE and MME. Lineup Correlation:   Pair Cousins with Thielen, Rudolph and Larty

NFL DFS: Week 6 TE Report

FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP) Jordan Reed (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,200): After three mid-level games (4/48/1, 6/55, and 4/65) on 20 combined targets, Reed was a bust last week vs. the Saints’ defense (1/21 on two targets). New Orleans played well vs. TEs all year (19/195 on 27 targets), but Jordan was the best option they’ve faced in 2018. Over the last two games, Washington had Reed on the field for about 65 percent of their plays. With Vernon Davis injured with a hamstring issue and much of the Redskins’ receiving core having an injury tag next to their name, Jordan should be the most active receiver for Washington against the Panthers. TEs have 20 catches for 213 yards and one TD on 26 targets in four games against Carolina while showing failure risk in two games (ATL – 6/69/1 and CIN – 9/109). As frustrating as he may be, I have to believe he’s the best TE play of the week on Sunday in the Million Dollar Maker. Jared Cook (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,400): Both times that Cook came off an elite game (9/180 and 8/110/2), he came up short the following week (4/49 and 4/20). After five games, Jared has 30 catches for 390 yards and two TDs on 41 targets. He averages 8.2 targets per game with more of his chances coming in his two best games (12 and 13). TEs have 19 catches for 213 yards and one TD on 28 targets vs. the Seahawks while facing mostly weak TE options (DEN, DAL, ARI, and LAR). Trey Burton was the best TE that Seattle faced, and the jury is still out on his watermark. With Oakland having some talent at WR, Cook should reemerge in the Raiders’ passing game in this matchup. Cameron Brate (DK – $3,700/FD – $4,500): Brate has a TD in two straight games while delivering minimal production in each contest (3/34/1 and 3/29/1). This week Cameron was expected to get the starting job, but there is a chance that O.J. Howard plays. Even if Howard plays, Brate should see the majority of TE snaps for Tampa. Over the first four games, Cameron only has ten targets while being in the field for 106 of 261 plays run by the Bucs (40.6 percent). This season TEs have 23 catches for 229 yards and one TD on 34 targets against the Falcons. In 2017, Tampa had success with their TEs against Atlanta (9/57/1 on 13 targets and 7/116/1 on nine targets). If Howard doesn’t play, Brate should be a nice value TE in this matchup. Austin Hooper (DK – $3,500/FD – $5,600): Hooper was Ryan’s top check down option last week leading to a career-high 12 targets. He finished with nine catches for 77 yards, which was good enough to rank third for the week at TE. On the year, Austin has 21 catches for 202 yards and one TD on 27 targets. He looks to be on a pace to beat last year’s season (49/526/3) by about 25 percent. In 2017, Hooper had five catches for 50 yards on seven targets in two games against the Bucs. TEs have three big games (15/151, 5/119/1, and 2/86/1) against Tampa. A favorable matchup, but so does the rest of the Falcon’s receivers, so something has to give. In the mix at this level, but he could be the trap of the week.   MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP) Trey Burton (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,800): After four games, Burton has the 9th highest scoring average at TE in PPR leagues. He looked better in his last two games (4/55 and 2/86/1), but Trey only has 19 targets on the year. Over the last two games, he caught three balls over 20 yards highlighted by his 39-yard TD and 47-yard catches against the Bucs. Miami held the TE to fewer than ten Fantasy points in their last four games while facing two top TEs (Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski). The Dolphins did struggle in Week 1 (7/101 on 12 targets) against the Titans’ TEs. Overall, TEs have 23 catches for 271 yards and no TDs on 37 targets vs. Miami. Tough to get excited here. David Njoku (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,500): After five weeks of the NFL season, Njoku is the 14th highest scoring TE while trending upward in his last two games (5/52 on seven targets and 6/69 on 11 targets) with Baker Mayfield behind center. David doesn’t have a TD in 2018 after scoring four TDs in 2017. TEs have 19 catches for 232 yards and one TD on 34 targets against the Chargers with their only failed week coming vs. the 49ers (6/125/1). In that game, George Kittle hit on an 82-yard TD. LA did hold Travis Kelce (1/6 on six targets) and Jared Cook (4/20 on six targets) to short games. More of an against the grain play, but his salary does keep in the mix week as due to score. Jeff Heuerman (DK – $2,600/FD – $4,400): Over the last two games with starting snaps, Heuerman caught six of his 11 targets for 75 yards. The Broncos’ TEs have 22 catches for 228 yards on 36 targets on the year with no TDs. The Rams rank just below league average defending TEs (28/371 on 39 targets) with more than half of the damage coming in Week 1 vs. the Raiders (11/200 on 15 targets). A low-level player with minimal opportunity in most weeks.   BAD MATCHUP (AVOID) Ricky Seal-Jones (DK – $2,700/FD – $5,000): There isn’t a lot of fun in Seals-Jones game at this point of the year. Last week the 49ers shut him out on six targets. Over five games, Ricky caught 40 percent of his 25 targets for 123 yards and one TD. TEs have 28 catches for 372 yards and two TDs on 36 targets against the Vikings with three teams having success (SF – 5/90, GB – 7/99, and PHI – 12/126/1).

NFL DFS: Week 6 Cash Breakdown

Winning in DFS is fun. Dominating in NFL DFS Cash is even better! Dive into the week 3 NFL Cash breakdown and dominate using our projections.

NFL DFS: Week 6 Secret Stars

The Secret Stars weekly article isn’t suggesting the lineup you should use this week, rather its purpose is to identify players who represent extreme value at their current salaries for the week. Selecting these players will give you an opportunity to use such

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NFL DFS: Primetime MNF-TNF

Below are my thoughts on the two prime-time games this week to cover for the MNF-TNF slate and the two Showdown slates.   MNF:  REDSKINS at SAINTS SHOWDOWN QB:  Drew Brees, Alex Smith and Taysom Hill Drew Brees is going to take over as the all time passing yards leader in the history of the NFL this evening with 201 yards passing and he should get that tonight at home in a prime time game.  They will stop the game when he breaks the record to acknowledge Brees and given the history of the Saints I see this somehow finding a way to happen on a TD pass (my prediction is a 29 yard TD pass to the left endzone on your TV — the Poydras street side — to Josh Hill). Alex Smith is not a terrible single game play today as the Redskins will have to move the ball through the air tonight against the Saints, but I would not play him on the MNF-TNF slate. Taysom Hill is the shiny car that gets to be put back in the garage as Mark Ingram II returns and Drew Brees has the spotlight on him tonight.  But do not be afraid to play Hill in the single game showdown slates.  It’s not my fault that everyone else is too blind to see the obvious that is happening here where we have a free square on a single game slate with someone who gets red zone looks as a runner, a passer and even last game a receiver.  Oh yeah, he returns kicks too.  He is worth playing in the comma contests tonight. RB:  Ingram, Kamara, Thompson Ingram gets a great match-up against the Redskins defense coming off his suspension.  He should be all systems go and will get back into the mix with the Boom and Zoom backfield combination.  Chris Thompson is a nice MNF-TNF play as well from the Redskins.  He suffered a season ending injury in this same match-up last year but prior to that he was starting to break out with a solid game against the Saints.  Kamara benefits greatly by having Ingram back, he can remain fresh and be used more as a flex WR with the threat of the running game still in play.  I would roster all three of these guys on SNF-MNF WR:  Thomas, Smith, Crowder, M. Harris I would prefer to spend for Kamara over Thomas but if you want to go full Saints stack on MNF-TNF he is always reliable for close to 100 yards.   Tre’Quan Smith will see more snaps tonight with Tedd Ginn ruled out and also should be in consideration for a 50 yard bomb now that Ingram is back and adds another layer of threat to the run game for New Orleans.  Maurice Harris should fill in for the injured Josh Doctson today and would be a nice value play and is in consideration on the showdown contest TE:  Josh Hill, Redskins TE from Univ of Maryland Value TE game!   Josh Hill week for me and that TE guy who played with Alex Smith in San Francisco has had some huge games against the Saints in his past.  I refuse to mention his name.  Dont mention his name to me.   Dont. K/DEF:   Do we believe in kicker revenge narratives?   We shouldnt.  But Hopkins was cut by the Saints…  As for defenses tonight, I would not go either as you are simply hoping for a turnover and neither QB should take a ton of sacks.   TNF:  EAGLES at GIANTS Projecting ahead I expect the Eagles to bounce back and shred the Giants this week.  Zach Ertz should have a huge game for the Eagles here and Beckham obviously is the WR to target against the weak Eagles secondary. QB:  Wentz Wentz is a nice pivot on the MNF-TNF slate and should come in lower owned than Brees and Smith. RB:  None, get all RB from the MNF game There’s nothing here I like.  If you have a FLEX spot open for TNF and want to pivot to it then you could consider one of the Eagles backs but we need clarity on who will play.  I don’t trust anyone outside of Smallwood. WR:  Beckham, Agholor Beckham has the best WR matchup on this MNF-TNF short slate. TE:  Ertz DEF:   Eagles