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NFL DFS: Week 7 Top Stacks

Carolina Panthers Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess Cam has been one of the more consistent QB’s this season and always has upside with his ability to run the ball. In Norv Turner’s offense, Cam has the highest completion percentage

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The Ambush – NFL Week 7 DFS plays from Steve Renner

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS?   These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays.    In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups. Last Week:   Cousins (Just OK), CMC (Horrible), Crabtree (Money), Reed (WTF), Bengals D (Dagger)   WEEK 7 INTRODUCTION Holy smoke balls, what a set of late breaking news we had at the end of this week with the Cleveland Browns sending Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville on Friday and it immediately sent everyone into a zombie frenzy of over-reaction to the news as if we now have a #1 running back that is going to light the world on fire for min price in Nick Chubb.   Chubb is very talented, comes from a good program for RB at Georgia and should become the feature back for the Browns along side Duke Johnson as a pass catching RB going forward.  The Browns this week are facing the laughing stock of the league defensively in the Tampa Bay Bucs who fired their DC Mike Smith (RIP #Smitty, you will always have a place in the Hall of Fame for all the yards you have allowed to Drew Brees) earlier this week after another horrific showing defensively against the Falcons last week. So now everyone is all over Chubb.  Stop.   Just stop. First off.  The match-up is not amazing for Chubb.  Tampa is so much of a funnel defense to the run it’s not crazy.  They’re top 5 overall statistically against the rush in raw yards but near the bottom in DVOA.  The reason for the gap?  They are ATROCIOUS in the secondary and everyone thrashes them through the air.  So this means that even if they’re not a stone wall defensively up front they’re not gonna likely turn around and hand off to Chubb 20+ times this week.  Furthermore, I was on and remain on Duke Johnson, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku as viable options for Cleveland this week.  Let’s break these guys down for a moment here. Jarvis Landry at only 6500 this week on FanDuel is in a fantastic spot.  He saw 10+ targets vs the Bucs last year and should see 10+ again this week and should do a better job catching against the Bucs secondary than last week vs the Chargers.  Lets lock him in for 7+ catches and 80 yards here.   He is the #1 target in this offense. David Njoku is only 5700 on FanDuel and faces the WORST defense against Tight Ends and is increasing his volume now that Baker has taken over the QB role in Cleveland.  Njoku at a week position is going to be 50%+ in cash and likely 40%+ in tournaments this week.  He’s the #2 target in this offense. Duke Johnson is the pass catching RB and someone to consider in tournaments this week if we go heavy on this game to play for a shootout (which I’m not high on) or decide to play TD variance and fade Landry/Njoku.  Johnson’s skill set on the road should help Baker on third down situations. All three of those guys are in GOOD positions this week and I’ll admit that Chubb is about equal to Johnson in terms of how good of a spot he is in.  So the reasons for the love affair with Chubb are as follows People are sheep People want to believe in a rookie, the new shiny toy, the guy who had 2 huge runs vs the Raiders a couple weeks ago (and nothing else) He is dirt cheap at 4800 on FanDuel (which really isnt that cheap honestly) and 3800 on DraftKings (where almost everyone is close this free week — TODD GURLEYS PRICE WENT DOWN!, but I’ll get to DK in a moment) So lets stop here for a minute….   Folks are saying Chubb is a MUST play in cash because of his price.  He is a “free square” that opens everything up for you… Uhhh.  Well, I already had two high priced RB and a high priced WR in my cash lineup — but okay.  What’s he gonna open up now?   Ask yourself this on in a cash lineup. Are you playing Jarvis Landry, the #1 target in the Browns offense and a PPR machine against the worst secondary in the league? Are you playing David Njoku, the #2 target in the Browns offense and facing the worst defense against TE in the league? Are you correlating them with Baker Mayfield who isn’t that expensive in his own right? If you answered yes to 2 of the 3 or even all 3 … then stop … You want to make it 3 or 4 Browns in cash?  A team that is not built to blow teams out?   Yes?  Do you think Cleveland (a road dog, who hasn’t won a road game in ….. how long???) is going to go into Tampa (honestly not an easy place to play at 1pm) and win 41-3?  31-10?  31-28?   I don’t…  But let’s say they do.  Lets say they blow them out 41-10.   You get a TD from everyone, you did it.  You nailed the Cleveland Browns stack……   In cash……   Cool.   You also just played the chalk in a tournament. Orrrrrrrrrrrrr….  Maybe it’s a shootout on both sides and it’s that last score, the 31-28 type….   Well.  The other side of this game is 2% owned.  And the other side is ONE SIDED on the passing attack as their ground game will do NOTHING this week.  So why aren’t you playing Winston, Evans, Godwin, Jackson, Brate???? Play the

NFL DFS: Week 7 Cash Breakdown

Winning in DFS is fun. Dominating in NFL DFS Cash is even better! Dive into the week 3 NFL Cash breakdown and dominate using our projections.

NFL DFS: Week 7 TE Report

FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP) Zach Ertz (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,500): Ertz failed to get double-digit targets last week for the first time this season, but he did score a TD for the second straight game. Zach averages eight catches for

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NFL Week 7 – Thursday to Monday Slate

Thursday Night Game Week 7 kicks off with the lowest total game of the week between the Denver Broncos and the Arizona Cardinals.  Talk about a dynamite game to kick off the week, right?   But don’t go sleeping on this game.  This is a spot with two inter-conference teams who are looking to right the ship on rough seasons thus far. The Denver Broncos are desperate for a win with Von Miller coming out this week and saying they are gonna “KILL EM” when they go into Arizona.  Well, Von, maybe you guys should stop the run?   Denver is getting GASHED on the ground and if ever there was a spot for David Johnson to return to his prior status as an elite RB it would be this week.  The Broncos rush defense has yielded 142, 323 and 270 yards in the last three contests and our projections tonight have David Johnson with the best game of his season.   He is a must start in your Thursday Night Showdown contests and we’re even recommending you lock him into TNF-MNF slate contests this week.   NBA DFS IS BACK … Not a member of the NBA or NHL packages at FullTime Fantasy Sports?  Then you are missing Out!    Click Here to Sign up for the All Sports Package today using promo code NBATIPOFF to get 50% off the DFS All Sports package for your first two months.   SNF-MNF Locks The prime-time slates this week are LOADED on the back end with two “College Style Big-12” games on Sunday and Monday Night with a lot of offensive fireworks expected.  There will definitely be lots of ownership shifted towards the SNF and MNF games this week as they have the highest totals of the weekend, but there’s a few plays specifically in them that we love this week. SNF Lock:   Andy Dalton and A.J. Green take their road success into Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs coming off their first loss of the season.  Expect this to be the shootout game of the weekend but most will look at Mahomes and the Chiefs and we are on the Dalton-Green connection. MNF Lock:   Saquon Barkley gets to display his talents in prime time again, this time against the worst team defending the pass to running backs in the past three seasons and in Atlanta which has yielded the most points of any stadium this year (it’s a fast track and with the bad Falcons defense we should expect more points here again this week).  There are some limited high end RB options on the main slate this week and we feel extremely confident locking in David Johnson and Saquon Barkley on your full slate contests this week. CORE Plays for the full slate this week:    Andy Dalton, David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, AJ Green       Thursday Night Showdown Picks FAVORITES (Plays to consider for Captain/MVP) David Johnson (ARI) … Highest priced Captain abut also someone I think has the best chances to notch 2 TD in a game that should be low scoring. Philip Lindsay (DEN) … We should not ignore how much Arizona is giving up on the ground as well this week.  They have yielded at least one rushing touchdown in every game thus far this year and Lindsay/Freeman are both in good spots to continue that trend this week. Manny Sanders (DEN) OTHER PLAYS I LIKE JJ Nelson (ARI) … See below, he is the sneaky TD call tonight. Royce Freeman (DEN) … I like Freeman to re-establish himself as a good dynasty value back this week, I still believe in Freeman more long term and while the two are splitting production I will take Freeman at a projected lower ownership in Showdown tonight. Joshua Rosen (ARI) Case Keenum (DEN) Phil Dawson (ARI) CONTRARIAN Courtland Sutton (DEN) SNEAKY TD: JJ Nelson (ARI) … Contrarian play that I really like this week.  If Arizona is able to get DJ going on the ground it could open up some play action.   CONTRARIAN GAME THOUGHT: Take the over in a game that nobody wants to touch.  This game reminds me a ton of the Rams/49ers TNF game last year that went completely off and I think both defenses have shown signs to be vulnerable this season.  This is a spot where most will want to get the running backs and going a QB stack is not the worst move here.

NFL DFS Week 7 DK Secret Stars

The Secret Stars weekly article isn’t suggesting the lineup you should use this week, rather its purpose is to identify players who represent extreme value at their current salaries for the week. Selecting these players will give you an opportunity to use such players as Todd Gurley and Adam Thielen in your lineups. Here are our Secret Stars for Week Seven: QB Kirk Cousins $6,400 @ NYJ – With just 10 games on the main DraftKings slate this Sunday, there isn’t a ton of flexibility at quarterback. There isn’t much price fluctuation either, so Kirk Cousins is a great option regardless of format. The Vikings new QB is slinging it to two of the best receivers in the game (Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs) and Minnesota should maintain that approach with Dalvin Cook (hamstring) likely to see limited work if he’s active this week. The Jets will be without starting FS Marcus Maye (thumb) and could be without top CB Trumaine Johnson (quad) and slot CB Buster Skrine (head) once again. Thielen would almost shred backups at that position, making it easy for Cousins to have another 300-plus yard game. QB Mitchell Trubisky $5,600 vs. NE – Proving that his Week 4 eruption was not a fluke, Mitchell Trubisky went for 316 yards and 3 TD on the road against a solid Dolphins defense last Sunday. Now the Bears host a Patriots team that ranks 21st in DVOA pass defense this season. When facing New England, it’s certain that the game plan will call for a pass-heavy approach to chase points or try to stay ahead of Tom Brady and his many weapons. Trubisky is the type of athletic quarterback that could give the Patriots slower defense trouble, along with speedy receiver Taylor Gabriel. RB Tarik Cohen $5,100 vs. NE – Despite losing a fumble late in an overtime loss to the Dolphins, Tarik Cohen should be a big part of the game plan for Chicago this week. Again, the Patriots often force teams to chase points and have given up the fifth-most receiving yards (344) to opposing RBs this season. New England’s big LBs have no chance to contain Cohen, who absolutely burst off the screen while catching seven balls for 90 yards and a touchdown last Sunday. Unlike Jordan Howard, Cohen’s workload is secure regardless of game flow and he’s a much more valuable option in PPR formats. RB Peyton Barber $3,800 vs. CLE – Peyton Barber finally showed signs of life after the Bucs Week 5 bye, turning 13 carries into 82 yards and adding 24 yards and a TD on four receptions. He played on 41 offensive snaps (62%) in a shootout loss at Atlanta, so it’s encouraging to note that he didn’t lose work entirely with his team playing from behind. Tampa is likely to get ahead this week against the low-scoring Browns, and game script is part of the reason Cleveland’s allowed the third-most rushing yards (733) in the NFL this season. The Browns rank 21st in DVOA pass defense against opposing RBs and have coughed up 66 points in two road games. WR Josh Gordon $5,600 @ CHI – In every sense but his final line in the box score, Josh Gordon broke out last Sunday night. His playing time jumped considerably to the point he saw 81 percent of offensive snaps and he led the Patriots with nine targets. Gordon caught five balls for 42 yards, but would’ve had nearly 100 yards and a TD if he wasn’t yanked down in cheap fashion by Chiefs CB Steven Nelson. The Bears defense is solid all over, but more vulnerable to the pass than the run. Expect a game plan that involves less Sony Michel, more James White, and more pass attempts from Tom Brady, who is starting to mesh with his new weapon on the outside. WR Marquise Goodwin $4,600 vs. LAR – While he’ll be a very popular play, Marquise Goodwin is a strong option in any format at this modest price tag. His price was set on DK before he erupted for 126 yards and 2 TDs on five targets in a shootout loss at Green Bay Monday night. Similar game script should unfold in San Francisco this Sunday, as the Niners host an elite Rams offense. With Aqib Talib (ankle) out and Marcus Peters (calf) hobbled, the Rams have suddenly been vulnerable on the outside and are now one of five teams to allow 10 TDs to opposing WRs this season. Goodwin has the speed to burn the Rams bigger DBs and should have plenty of opportunity with Dante Pettis (knee) and Trent Taylor (back) both doubtful this week. TE David Njoku $4,200 @ TB – In Baker Mayfield’s three full starts, David Njoku has corralled 18 balls on 30 targets. The former Heisman Trophy winner clearly has a tendency to get the ball out of his hands quickly and likes to target his athletic TE when opposing defenses come after him. The Bucs may struggle to move the pocket this week if Gerald McCoy (calf) can’t play, and they’ve been pathetic on the back end regardless, coughing up the most passing YPG (355.6) this season. Tampa also allows the second-most DK PPG (105.6) and most receiving YPG (97.6) to opposing TEs by far. FLEX Jermaine Kearse $4,100 vs. MIN – The Jets up-and-down passing offense should be a little more reliable at home this week and they’ll have a couple of WR s worth targeting if Quincy Enunwa (ankle) is ruled out. With Enunwa out, Kearse and Terrelle Pryor (5 catches, 57 yards, TD) stepped up against the Colts improving secondary. Minnesota’s defensive backs have bounced back after a rocky start, but the Vikings just lost rookie CB Mike Hughes (knee) for the season. If Enunwa is out, consider Pryor at just $3,800 on DK, but Kearse is the safer play as an outside receiver who should get plenty of targets while Xavier Rhodes blankets Robby Anderson. D/ST HOU $2,800 @ JAX – Playing the Cowboys D/ST at home against Jacksonville paid off last