The Ambush (Weekly) Recap – Week 6
The main slate from Week Six is in the books and while the AMBUSH didn’t hit for 5 figures this week there were some screenshots I saw within the FullTime Family that put together some very good days. With the paylines being fairly low around the sites it was also a profitable week all around as I took the “lock Diggs TD” call and put it to good use on my main lineup which carried and helped a bunch of just average performances elsewhere. Here’s my harsh grading on myself from Week 6 and The AMBUSH. THE AMBUSH Plays The CORE plays for building a lineup in Week 6 (again, not all should be forced into the same lineup necessarily, but they are foundation calls for building your 5 CORE lineups). 1) BAKERS REVENGE This gets a B. The entire reason I was on the Browns-Seahawks game was because of Baker and the Browns offense. If they had played another stinker game then nothing in this game would have benefited the way that it did. The first step each week when doing analysis on games for me is to determine if the game as a whole is going to be a good game flow for both sides or not. If it is then there should be points in the game and we can then decipher how the variance of where those points will come from based on match-ups should be. Getting the Browns offense right was the first step in going to this game and that started with Baker Mayfield, who played through an injury — but still killed himself with a couple costly turnovers. 2) KELCE PAYS OFF This gets an F. No slicing and dicing this. Was it a call that was “right” or “made sense”, sure. But this isn’t a participation trophy award of any sorts. I liked Hill coming back for Kelce and obviously that turned out to be just being cute and overthinking things. Hooper killed Kelce. 3) BECKHAMM, WOODS, LOCKETT UP This gets a C from me. Odell Beckham was fed the ball enough by Baker Mayfield to be a good core play, Tyler Lockett had just an average game and missed a TD late by an inch (literally) as it was called a TD and then reviewed and pulled back as he was down just short and Robert Woods got the Rams only TD rushing the ball on the first drive of the game. Unfortunately for Woods, he never got the ball again, and if you had all three and didn’t put Diggs in your FLEX (Luckily, I did) then you likely hurt yourself at WR. 4) PIVOT OFF HIGH VEGAS TOTALS This ultimately gets an D. Why? Because both the Texans-Chiefs and Falcons-Cardinals games produced but specifically the Falcons-Cardinals one got there late with Hooper paying off big time, Matty Ice doing what he was expected to do and the game having well over 60 points total in it. Of the the three games that I offered as pivots, two of them were the right spots (Jets-Cowboys, hey, I gave you that Jets win in last weeks’ article as well!) and Seahawks-Browns being very good games. The 49ers obviously DOMINATED the Rams offense which made that a bad spot to target. I am VERY harsh on my own grading for the AMBUSH core plays. After they were VERY good in the first month of the season I am not going to participation trophy myself here. Now on with the rest of the breakdown. QB RESULTS Highest scoring QB’s were: Watson, Ryan, Jackson, Wilson, Murray, Cousins…. All of whom were 28 points or higher on FD and the next best player was 22.46 points (Baker Mayfield). Patrick Mahomes Baker Mayfield Russell Wilson Matt Ryan If you had any of these Quarterbacks you didn’t lose because of them and I noted how Mahomes was not in play on FD due to his price tag. RB RESULTS Highest scoring RB’s were: Chubb, Freeman, D.Johnson, Carson, Zeke, Hyde, Sanders. So this was a rough spot for me this week in the breakdown and who knew the Hyde and Go Zeke play would finally pay off a week later…. Mark Ingram II Derrick Henry LeVeon Bell LaTavius Murray Zeke Elliott Dalvin Cook Derrick Henry did what Derrick Henry does. If you recall, I have pretty much been an anti D-Henry person since he came into the league and it was games like yesterday that justify my hatred for the man in DFS. Latavius Murray’s 52 yard screen TD that was called back due to a hold down field put me on full tilt as he still hit good value on DK even without that. Overall, Nick Chubb wound up being one RB that you sneakily wanted and I was on the other spots in that game. WR RESULTS Highest scoring WR’s were: Diggs, McLaurin, Hill, Robbie Anderson, Jeffery, Jaron Brown DeAndre Hopkins … Duh Robert Woods … My favorite WR this week to “get his”, probably wont end as the #1 overall scoring WR, but for his price you’ll be VERY pleased with his results. Odell Beckham Jr & Tyler Lockett … I’ll play Beckham & Lockett or some form of Beckham, Landry, Lockett, Metcalf together only. Meaning that if I have one player from this game I will have two. Amari Cooper Julio Jones Stefon Diggs: Want a lock TD? Here’s your guy. OTHERS TO CONSIDER Jarvis Landry Larry Fitzgerald Antonio Callaway DK Metcalf TIGHT ENDS Highest scoring TE’s were: Hooper, Kittle, Seals-Jones, Cook, Andrews Travis Kelce Austin Hooper Zachary Ertz DEFENSES Highest scoring DEF were: Broncos, Saints, Redskins, 49ers Baltimore Ravens New Orleans Saints Tennessee Titans Just play the Saints every week, and trust me, okay? WEEK 7 FIRST GLANCE Raiders-Packers: Sneaky shootout potential Rams-Falcons: ………. Hey, Jared Goff chalk week. Jaguars-Bengals: Yay. Fournette chalk. Yay. Bengals chalk. Yay. Vikings-Lions: ….. Texans-Colts: I miss my Andrew
The Ambush – Week 6 DFS
The AMBUSH previews the NFL slate for the main contests this Sunday.
NFL Week 6 – RB Report
Running Backs Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,500) Five games into the 2019 season, Elliott ranks 11th at the RB position in PPR leagues with a steady flow of boring games (13.90, 20.00, 15.90, 17.50, and 17.10 Fantasy
Week 6 TNF Showdown
Preview the TNF slate for the Showdown as Week 6 kicks off between the Giants and the Patriots
Daily Ambush – NFL Week 5 Recap
You all know about The Ambush, my weekly NFL article that breaks down the NFL DFS main slate of games on Sunday’s, but now you are getting a daily dose of the Ambush as I feel it’s necessary and I wanted to give a quick look ahead with a slight look back as we head into a pretty cool slate of games based on the scheduling.
NFL Showdown – Week 5 MNF
NFL Showdown Preview for MNF
The Ambush – Week 5 DFS
The AMBUSH previews the NFL slate for the main contests this Sunday.
NFL DFS – Week 5 WR Report
Wide Receivers DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,500) After three straight short games (5/40, 6/67, and 5/41), Hopkins looks poised to post an impact game vs. the Falcons. Over his 2017 and 2018 seasons, he scored 24 TDs over 31 games while averaging 29.97 Fantasy points per game. He failed to score over 15.0 Fantasy points in PPR leagues in six contests. Over this 31-game stretch, Houston gave him double-digit targets in 22 contests. This season WRs have 45 catches for 608 yards and seven TDs on 61 targets against the Falcons. They showed the most risk vs. the WR position in Week 4 (TEN – 11/206/3). Nelson Agholor (8/107/1) and A.J. Brown (3/94/2) had the top two games vs. Atlanta in 2019. CB Isaiah Oliver will have his hands full after starting the year with WRs scoring three TDs on him with close to 200 yards. For me, the daily game show in Week 5 begins here. Possible ten catches for 150 yards with multiple TDs. Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,200) Jones had a tough time getting open last week (4/52 on seven targets), which came after two elite games (5/106/2 and 8/128/1). The Falcons gave him 30 targets over the first three weeks while starting the year with four TDs in three games. In two games already in 2019, the Texans struggled to defend WRs (NO – 19/250/1 and LAC – 19/256/2). Overall, WRs have 62 catches for 778 yards and four TDs vs. Houston with two WR1s having big games (Michael Thomas – 10/123 and Keenan Allen – 13/183/2). CB Lonnie Johnson has yet to give up a TD while having the size (6’2” and 215 lbs.) to match up with Jones. Houston drafted Johnson in the second round in the 2019 NFL Draft. The weakness at CB in the Texans’ defense comes from Johnathan Joseph, who may see more of Calvin Ridley. Not a slam dunk with Atlanta struggling to pass block at times in 2019. Game score should be favorable to the passing game, and Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards in each game in 2019. Davante Adams, GB (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,000) The Eagles didn’t have a player on their roster to cover Adams in Week 4 (10/180), but a toe injury cut short his day and probably cost the Packers a chance at a win. Over four games, Adams doesn’t have a TD while averaging nine targets per game. He’s already missed two days of practice putting his playing time at risk on Sunday. Turf toe injuries can be big problems for RBs and WRs. Dallas ranks fourth in the NFL defending WRs (50/541/1 on 81 targets) with no WR gaining over 100 yards receiving. Too much risk with his health plus this matchup isn’t favorable. Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,500) Despite being the highest-scoring WR after four games (34/452/3 on 47 targets), Allen has the fourth-highest salary at WR at DraftKings in Week 5. His best two games (8/123/1 and 13/183/2) came at home. The Chargers remain banged up at WR with no real option to steal targets at TE. Allen played well in 2018 at home vs. the Broncos (9/89/1). Denver currently ranks third in the league defending WRs (41/500/2 on 62 targets) while facing OAK, CHI, GB, and JAC. Two WRs (Tyrell Williams – 6/105/1 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 6/99/1) played well against the Broncos. CB Chris Harris has a chance to shallow Allen in this matchup. Denver has been more willing to move Harris around in coverage in 2019. I’m leaning on the fade side, which is also helped by game score projecting to be on the lower side. Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,700) CB Marcus Peters held Evans in check for most of their game in Week 4, but one missed step led to a 67-yard TD. Evans finished with four catches for 89 yards and a TD on seven targets. His success over the previous two games (12/279/4) pushes him to fourth in WR scoring in PPR leagues. Overall, he averages 8.75 targets per game with a low catch rate (51.4). In 2018, Evans played well in his game in New Orleans (7/147/1) with a step back in value at home (4/86). The Saints struggled with WRs in Week 1 (HOU – 14/216/3), Week 2 (LAR – 10/227/1), and Week 3 (SEA – 19/2999/1), leading to the 27th ranking in WR defense. Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving against New Orleans (DeAndre Hopkins – 8/111/2, Cooper Kupp – 5/120, and Tyler Lockett – 11/154/1). Offenses have been picking on Marshon Lattimore out of the gate (nine targets per game). He’ll allow big plays and TDs plus a high-catch rate. Evans is viable as he’ll most likely draw single coverage, giving him a chance to hit some long throws and a TD. Chris Godwin, TB (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,800) The Rams had no answer for Godwin last week, which led to an impact game (12/172/2). In Week 2, also on the road, he delivered his first great game (8/121/1). Godwin is on pace for 92 catches for 1,544 yards and 16 TDs, but he’s only averaging 8.5 targets start. He entered last week’s game with a hip issue that appeared to be minor, heading into the weekend. The same injury has him on the injury report again. CB Eli Apple hasn’t been challenged so far in 2019 while allowing a low completion rate and no TDs. Playing well, but a repeat showing would be a lot to ask. Amari Cooper, OAK (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,900) Over four games, Cooper has been a much better start at home (6/106/1 and 6/88/2) than on the road (4/44/1 and 5/48). He’s on pace for 84 catches for 1,158 yards and 16 TDs while averaging only 7.25 targets per game. The Packers have been exceptional defending WRs in 2019 (28/462/2 on 64 targets), which ranks
NFL Week 5 – DFS TNF Showdown
Picks and bets for the TNF Showdown between the Rams and Seahawks
NFL Week 5 DFS – QB Report
Shawn Childs previews all the QB’s in action this week for DFS