NFL Week 12 WR Report
Wide Receivers Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,300) In the daily world, it’s sad when Thomas can rank fourth WR scoring (28.40 Fantasy points) in DraftKings scoring last week while still feeling as though he fell short of his salary expectations. On the year, he averages 9.4 catches for 114.1 yards and 0.50 TDs on 11.3 targets per game or 25.52 FPPG). His high salary requires about 37.0 Fantasy points to payoff. Thomas has eight catches or more in nine of ten games with over 100 yards receiving in four of his previous five games. The Panthers rank 28th in WR defense (39.20 FPPG – 161/1891/6 on 250 targets). They’ve allowed over 240 yards to WRs in four of the last six games (17/277/2, 23/296, 16/244, and 19/283/1). Five WRs gained over 100 yards against Carolina (Chris Godwin – 8/121/1, D.J. Chark – 8/164/2, Chris Godwin – 10/51, Davante Adams – 7/118, and Calvin Ridley – 8/143/1). CB James Bradberry returned to action last week after missing Week 10 with a groin issue. His play has regressed in some of his past five games, but Bradberry still hasn’t allowed a TD in 2019. Thomas is an edge for sure, but he can’t be an option at his high salary level ($9,300) without scoring TDs. Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,400) After a great start over his first three games (19/265/4 on 30 targets), Jones hasn’t scored a TD in seven games while gaining over 100 yards in two other games. On the year, he averages 20.85 FPPG at home. Jones is on pace for 94 catches for 1,411 yards and 6.5 TDs. In 2018, he caught 19 passes for 282 yards and one TD on 27 targets in two games against the Bucs. Tampa is last in the league defending WRs (47.04 FPPG – 151/2024/17 on 234 targets) with disaster risk in three contests (LAR – 29/378/1, SEA – 21/293/3, and ARI – 19/316/3). CB Carlton Davis allows a low completion rate, but he did give up four TDs over his last three starts despite allowing low yards per catch. Six WRs gained over 100 yards receiving (Sterling Shepard – 7/100/1, Robert Woods – 13/164, Cooper Kupp – 9/121/1, Michael Thomas – 11/182/2, Tyler Lockett – 13/152/2, D.K. Metcalf – 6/123/1, Christian Kirk – 6/138/3, and Michael Thomas – 8/114/1). An excellent matchup with explosive upside if he ends his scoring slump. Tyler Lockett, SEA (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,400) Lockett came out of his last game in Week 10 with a shin injury that most likely would have him kept him out of Week 11 if Seattle played. The Seahawks expect him to practice later this week, putting on track to play on Sunday if he doesn’t have any setbacks. In his matchup vs. the 49ers, Lockett gained only 29 yards with three catches. His two impact games came in Week 3 (11/54/1) and Week 9 (13/152/2), which came after success the previous week (10/79 and 6/100). Overall, he averaged only 7.6 yards per game, leading to about 17.79 FPPG. The Eagles worked their way to 26th in WR defense (38.99 FPPG – 120/1666/13 on 201 targets) while showing improvement vs. WRs over the previous four games (10/169, 9/101/1, 5/80, and 14/115/1). Six WRs have over 100 yards receiving (Terry McLaurin – 5/125/1, Julio Jones – 5/106/2, Calvin Ridley – 8/105/1, Marvin Jones – 6/101/1, Davante Adams – 10/180, Stefon Diggs – 7/167/3, and Amari Cooper – 5/106) against the Eagles. CB Avonte Maddox will give up some big plays with some failure in his completion rate allowed. If Lockett is 100 percent, he has a chance to hit on a big play for a TD. His upside will be limited due to many runs expected by both teams and the Eagles to path in moving the ball. Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,000) Heading into Week 12, Evans is the second-highest scoring WR (20.13 FPPG) in PPR leagues. His value took a step back over the previous two games (4/82, and 4/69), which came after impact success in two contests (11/198/2 and 12/180/1). Evans played well in two other weeks (8/1903 and 4.89/1). He averages 9.7 targets per game. Last year in two games against the Falcons, Evans had ten catches for 164 yards and two TDs on 13 targets. Atlanta is 27th in WR defense (39.11 FPPG – 138/1835/12 on 190 targets) with failure in one game (HOU – 24/377/3). Four WRs (Nelson Agholor – 8/107/1, Will Fuller – 14/217/3, Tyler Lockett – 6/100, and Michael Thomas – 13/152) have over 100 yards receiving vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has risk at two CB slots while keeping their best option (Desmond Trufant) on one side of the field on most plays. Tampa will look to attack CB Isaiah Oliver with Evans on many plays. Oliver gives up a ton of yards with risk after the catch. Evans should score with a good chance with over 100 yards receiving. Chris Godwin, TB (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,800) Godwin slipped into the steady category over his past four starts (4/43, 7/61, 6/74, and 3/47/1 on 35 combined targets) after dominating in four of his five previous games (8/121/1, 12/172/2, 7/125/2, and 10/151). He averages 9.0 targets per game while setting career highs in catches (63) and receiving yards (887) in six fewer games than 2018. Last year he played well in both games against Tampa (12 catches for 170 yards and three TDs on 18 targets). CB Kendall Sheffield started the last five games for Atlanta with no damage in TDs allowed or many big plays. His pedigree is elite, which points to a rebound in value for Godwin in this possible shootout game. Odell Beckham, CLE (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,000) The scoreless streak of Beckham is now at eight games while scoring only one TD in 2019. Over his last five games, he gained 357 yards with 25 catches on 46
NFL TNF Showdown – Colts vs Texans
Is T.Y. Hilton 100% healthy? Absolutely not. Is he gonna play a game at Houston in a showdown slate and not make my lineup or write-up? Hell no. Of course I am going TY Hilton tonight and you should too
NFL Running Back Report – Week 12
Running Backs Christian McCaffrey, CAR (DK – $10,500/FD – $10,500) Last week McCaffrey did everything he needed to fill his elite salary bucket but score a TD, which fell more on the poor QB play in Carolina. He finished with
NFL DFS – Quarterback Report – Week 12
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200) After taking last week off due to a bye, Wilson to 3rd in QB scoring (27.15 FPPG) due to big games by Lamar Jackson (35.70 Fantasy points) and Dak Prescott (36.00 FPPG).
NFL Primetime Week 11
NFL DFS Primetime For Week 11 Chicago at LA Rams (SNF) Rams 6 point favorites Over/Under: 40 points These teams met last year in Chicago and the Bears won a low scoring game 15-6 Kansas City at LA Chargers (MNF)
The Ambush – Week 11 DFS
The AMBUSH previews the NFL slate for the main contests this Sunday.
NFL – Week 11 TNF – Steelers vs Browns
Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off with a Thursday night battle between two AFC North rivals with the Steelers visiting the Browns. The total on this game is 41.5 with the Browns a slight 3 point home favorite
NFL DFS – QB Report – Week 11
Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,800) After nine games, Jackson is the highest scoring QB in the land while scoring over 30.00 Fantasy points in five contests (36.80, 33.60, 33.00, 30.25, and 35.65). His edge comes from his value in the run game (106/702/6). Jackson scored a rushing TD in four straight games (five total). His passing attempts have been short in his previous three games (20, 23, and 17). Houston plays well vs. the run (183/757/3), but they have risk defending QBs (24th – 24.30 FPPG) with three teams delivering impact games (NO – 370/2, ATL – 330/4, and 326/4). The Texans allowed 14 TDs to QBs over a four-game stretch. Jackson has been a hot ride, and this matchup looks favorable. His only strike is his rising salary. Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6.900/FD – $8,300) The Saints fell on their face in Week 10, which starts with a disappointing game by Brees (287/0). In his three full games, he averaged 343 passing with five combined TDs. On the year, New Orleans only has 12 passing TDs with weakness at WR behind Michael Thomas. The Bucs allow the second-most Fantasy points to QBs (27.49 FPPG) with failure in four games (39.60, 33.70, 43.00, and 31.00 Fantasy points). Tampa allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 22 TDs in nine games. New Orleans will struggle to run the ball (the Bucs allow 3.3 yards per rush), giving Brees an excellent chance at 300-plus yards. Last year he passed for 640 yards with five TDs in two games against Tampa. I sense a trap, but the Bucs didn’t have an answer for Michael Thomas in Week 5 (11/82/2) or two games in 2019 (16/180/1 and 11/98). Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200) Watson is the second-highest scoring QB (27.39 FPPG) with five impact games (34.40, 30.35, 46.00, 34.20, and 30.55 Fantasy points). Over nine games, he has high value in the run game (52/279/5). His completion rate (70.2) is elite while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt despite DeAndre Hopkins gaining only 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The Ravens climbed to ninth in QB defense (18.27 FPPG) after holding their previous five QBs to fewer than 18.00 Fantasy points or fewer. Their only poor showing defending QBs came in Week 3 vs. the Chiefs (374/3). More an against the grain play. Dak Prescott, DAL (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,100) Surprisingly, Prescott ranks fourth at the quarterback position (26.37 FPPG) after nine games. His season started with two impact games (37.45 and 31.35 Fantasy points) followed by two other special games (30.85 and 30.85 Fantasy points) over his previous five contests. He’s on pace for 5,248 combined yards with 37 TDs. The Lions fell to 26th QB defense (24.24 FPPG) with failure in two games (32.40 and 32.90 FPPG). Detroit allowed over 20.0 Fantasy points to eight of nine QBs. The Lions gave up 15 passing TDs in the past five games while also showing risk defending the run (253/1167/9) on the year. Prescott tends to be a better play at home (28.12 FPPG) compared to on the road (19.5 FPPG). I expect Ezekiel Elliott to steal the passing upside in this matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,000) With George Kittle injured and Emmanuel Sanders exiting early from last week’s game, Garoppolo had a tough time passing the ball vs. the Seahawks. He finished with 248 passing yards with a TD while completing a season-low 52.2 percent of his passes. His salary ($6,700) is up with the top QB in 2019 despite sitting 21st in QB scoring (17.83 FPPG) with only one game of value (32.05 FPPG). The Cardinals rank last in the NFL defending QBs (28.35 FPPG) with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (32.45, 33.60, 34.50, 44.95, and 32.05 FPPG). QBs gain 8.2 yards per pass attempt vs. Arizona with 25 passing TDs over ten games. The 49ers will have success running the ball, which makes Garoppolo overpriced in Week 11 based on the health of his receiving options. If George Kittle plays, I could see a 250/2 type game while still falling short of his salary bucket. Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,800) Allen threw for a season-high 266 yards last week leading to his best game of the year thanks to his success in the run game (6/28/2). He tends to have a floor of about 20.0 Fantasy points in four-point passing TD leagues while still looking for his first impact game of the year. Allen doesn’t have a game with more than two passing TDs. After ten weeks, he ranks 10th in QB scoring (21.49 FPG). Three weeks ago, Allen gained 234 combined yards with two TDs vs. the Dolphins after dominating them in two games in 2018 (he rushed for 220 yards and two TDs with success as well in the passing game – 555 yards and five TDs). Miami worked their way to 24th in QB defense (23.23 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points in four of their previous five games. Their only disaster showing came in Week 1 (44.45 FPPG) vs. the Ravens. Sneaky option in Week 11 while owing me a few dollars from his previous matchup. Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600) Even with an underperforming game (23.90 FPPG) vs. the Cardinals, Winston snuck up to 5th in QB ranking (23.14 FPPG). He finished 398 combined yards with one TD and a pair of Ints. Over his previous four games, Winston averaged 374 combined yards, but he tossed more Ints (9) than TDs (6). His best two games came in Week 3 (380/3) and Week 4 (385/4). The Saints held him to 213 yards and two TDs in his only game in 2018. New Orleans worked their way to 19th in QB defense (17.40 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points in five of their last six games.
NFL DFS Week 10: Your Must-Have Sneaky Value WR
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4th and Goal Week 10
Quarterback (Very thin here this week. You could even pay down to Mitch Trash-Itsky and be ok) Winston – I’m fine with running him by himself this week, instead of the Godwin/Evans guessing game. Nice spot at home against a porous secondary. Fitzpatrick – I like Miami to win this game, and it’ll be done through Fitz. Unfortunately he did lose one of his top targets, but Fitz has been good in the past with less than great skill guys. Brees – Brees at home, I’m a division game, which probably shoots out. Running Backs (there’s a lot of backs I like this week) CMC – Not much needed here to talk about. Great spot but finally priced right on Fanduel. He’s expensive, so if you fade you pray he doesn’t go for 35+ points. Jones – Carolina is 25th in league giving up 111 yards per game on the ground. He was bottled up last week, but should break out and be involved in the passing game as well. Barkley – Pivot off CMC. With all their injuries at the skill position, this may be the week we see 12+ targets. I think New York comes out and tries to establish the run against, where we see 25+ touches for Barkley. Montgomery – Probably one of the chalk plays this week. Detroit has been gashed 3 straight weeks against rb’s where all went over 24 fantasy points. Chubb – This will be the week Kitchens figures out they need to use their workhorse back. 3 100 yard games out of the last 5 and Cleveland is desperate for a win! Samuels – He won’t run for a ton of yards, but the dude caught all 13 of his targets last week. Pittsburgh will more than likely be down in this game, so flow and targets will be there. Wide Receivers Godwin/Evans – Every week I flip a coin and get it wrong. So here’s my game theory. We can figure Evans will see some Peterson. Now, if they lock Evans up one on one with Peterson we have to go there. Height mismatch, targets, it’s just too good to pass up. If they run a cover 2 or 3 across the board then it’d Godwin who has the game. So to make it simple…….flip a coin. Thomas – Would’ve liked to see Kamara out but it’s still a spot that’s tough to fade. In 6 career games, Thomas has caught 10 or more balls in 3 of those while also seeing 10 or more targets in 4 of those. Ridley – He has destroyed this secondary in his short career. 15 catches on 21 targets, 239 yards and 4 td’s. Tate – Target hog this weekend with all their injuries. Pascal – Forced into the #1 receiver roll with Hilton out again. Indy will probably run a lot of 2 TE sets this week, so it’ll be a lot of short routes for him. Others I like Robbie Anderson Parker Tight End Ebron – Reports from Indy saying that they’re be running 2 TE’s often. More opportunity for Ebron especially red zone opportunities. Jonnu – 12 targets over the last 2 weeks filling in for Walker. Davis is out as well for Tennessee which should spin over to targets for Jonnu. Hooper – Should see 7+ targets again this week. He’s the main beneficiary of Sanu leaving. Defense Miami – They score this week. Rams Ravens