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Super Bowl Game Picks

It took more than five months to get here, but we’ve finally reached Super Bowl LVII. There was plenty of drama along the way. However, it feels like the right two squads are squaring off in the big game. Our Super Bowl Game Picks break down the game from a sports betting perspective. Our best bets are on a 9-3 run so far in the NFL playoffs. This will be the biggest betting day of the year, so let’s break down the super bowl game picks. Also, as an added bonus, some in-game prop bet picks from Billy Muzio himself. Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) Just looking at how each of these two power performed in the regular season is indicative of how close this game is. The game opened with the Eagles as 1-point favorites and an over/under of 49.5. A modest amount of action on Philadelphia pushed that to 1.5 but the total has risen by 1.5 points. Combined, these two powers have a robust 32-6 record. It is no real surprise that in today’s offensive-driven league, the top-2 units in football are here in the finale. The Eagles rushed for 2,509 yards in the regular season. Also, Philadelphia’s 39 rushing scores are a new NFL record. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ top-ranked offense led the NFL in passing yards, touchdown passes, points, and yards per play. KC scored at least two touchdowns in every game en route to outscoring their opponents 496-369. TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH PTS YDS/PLAY Kansas City 1 1 20 1 1 Philadelphia 2 9 5 3 4 On paper, the biggest advantage in the game goes to the Eagles’ defense. While Kansas City has an above-average stop unit, Philadelphia boasted the league’s top pass defense. Plus, the Eagles ranked third overall and excelled at limiting opponents. Philadelphia’s pass rush led the NFL with 70 sacks. The club’s ability to generate a consistent pass rush while dropping extra personnel into coverage can’t be understated. In addition to getting to the quarterback, that defensive front helped the Eagles rank third in turnover rate and post the top DVOA pass defense mark in football. However, the Chiefs were by no means a one-sided team. Kansas City’s secondary ranked fourth in net passing yards per attempt and did a good job against the run. They only surrendered 10 rushing scores all season- fifth fewest in the NFL. Of course, a lot of that success can be attributed to the offenses. Teams were very often down and forced to abandon the run. That also led to some poor numbers against the pass. The Chiefs surrendered a league-worst 33 TD passes. TEAM DEFENSE PASS RUSH PTS YDS/PLAY Kansas City 12 18 8 16 7 Philadelphia 3 1 16 8 1 Not only can QB Jalen Hurts run with the best of them, but he’s also an excellent passer as well. Hurts gives a rushing attack that features Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott even more potency. Philadelphia also has a big edge at wide receiver. Part of that has to do with health, but A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are one of the top young pass-catching duos in the NFL. Tight end Dallas Goedert also posted top-5 fantasy points per game totals in 2022. This is already the third Super Bowl appearance for QB Patrick Mahomes. That makes Mahomes the youngest signal-caller in history to achieve that feat. Even hobbled by a high-ankle sprain, Mahomes exceeded 350 passing yards in both of KC’s post-season wins. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be activated for Sunday’s game. That adds reinforcements to a backfield that already trotted out Isiah Pacheco and pass-catching specialist Jerick McKinnon. Even an underwhelming group of wideouts can’t contain Mahomes’ greatness. Kadarius Toney has given the offense a spark since his arrival. Impending free agent Juju Smith-Schuster has been the team’s top WR. The biggest edge for the Chiefs is with All-Pro and future Hall-of-Fame TE Travis Kelce. The Eagles allowed 11.2 fantasy points per game to the position. Kelce has topped that figure 15 times this season. Vegas Trends The total has gone UNDER in four of Kansas City’s last five contests, including our correct call in the AFC Championship. However, the total has gone OVER in four of the past five matchups between the Eagles and Chiefs. Of course, that goes all the way back to 2005. The last time these two square off, the Chiefs won 42-30 in Philly back in 2021. Philadelphia opening and staying favorites is huge. The Eagles have won 20 of their last 22 games outright when giving points. The Birds have also covered in seven of their last nine postseason games. The UNDER has also hit in six straight playoff games for the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 18 matchups versus NFC opponents. The only blemish was to Tampa back in Super Bowl LV. Plus, betting on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as underdogs has been lucrative. Mahomes is now 8-1-1 as an underdog and Reid has gone 12-4-1 ATS in his last 17 games as an outright dog. Speaking of Reid, he is also 3-0 against his former club. Also, teams that have an experienced Super Bowl signal caller have gone 19-15 over teams starting a QB in his first finale. This will be the third Super Bowl for KC’s dynamic duo. The UNDER has hit in both previous games. Also, with the aforementioned recent history of going below the total between both squads, that will be my approach. PICK: UNDER 51, secondary bet Kansas City +1.5 or ML Billy Muzio’s Player Props The Super Bowl is one of the most anticipated sporting events of the year, attracting millions of viewers from all over the world. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just enjoy the festivities, the big game is a time to come together with friends and family to enjoy some food, drinks, and, of course, some friendly wagers. In conclusion, if you’re planning to place some bets this year, prop bets are a great way to

NFL Conference Championship Game Picks

With just four teams remaining, we will soon find out who will tangle in the Super Bowl. It feels like the right four squads will battle for that right on Sunday. But before that happens, our NFL Conference Championship Game Picks will forecast both games from a betting perspective. Our best bets are on a 7-3 run so far in the NFL playoffs. However, things get more difficult as the postseason tournament progresses. Let’s break down the NFL Conference Championship Game Picks. San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) If you listened to last week’s FullTime Fantasy Podcast, I talked about the struggles or balancing stats and trends versus “the eye test.” Trusting your own gut or eyes to tell you who the better team is. Case in point, the numbers, and even Vegas are telling us that the 49ers are Super Bowl bound. However, my eyes tell me that the Eagles have been the No. 1 team in the league all season, are now healthy and look like a screaming value by being favored less than a field goal. So what gives? It’s not hard to see why San Francisco is getting so much attention. The 49ers have won an NFL-high 12 consecutive games. Rookie sensation Brock Purdy is 8-0 since taking over at quarterback and the Niners have 32.25 points in those eight games. San Francisco also has a sparkling 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games. The 49ers rank 5th overall in offense and boast the league’s No. 1 stop unit. Purdy has come in and done exactly what he’s been asked. However, you have to wonder if luck has played a major factor in his success. Six of Purdy’s eight games have come at home. Also, one of the two road contests was nearly a de facto home game against the Raiders. Purdy also beat up on lesser defensive teams. The Cowboys, who ranked second in the league in sack percentage, did a good job limiting Purdy. GAME WEEK DEF RK VS. PASS SACK PCT FF PTS vs. Miami 13 18 27 22 14.3 vs. Tampa Bay 14 10 9 11 21.7 @ Seattle 15 26 13 7 16.5 vs. Washington 16 4 4 6 16 @ Las Vegas 17 28 29 30 17.1 vs. Arizona 18 21 24 24 19.8 vs. Seattle 19 26 13 7 32.9 vs. Dallas 20 13 8 2 9.4 Philadelphia ranked first against the pass, allowing just 202.6 yards per game. Also, the Eagles sacked the quarterback a league-best 70 times. This defense will make things tough for Purdy. Plus, the under has hit in four of the last five for Philly. Granted, Jalen Hurts was either out of limited in some of those games. Still, Philly has played like the best team in the league from start to finish. The Eagles were 7-3 against the spread at home, with two of those losses coming with Hurts out or ailing. The Eagles have won seven of their last 10 against the 49ers and covered the spread in eight of those games. Additionally, these will be by far the harshest conditions that Brock Purdy has faced in his young career. I expect the Philly fans to make things very difficult on the young signal caller. EDIT: I wanted to take a moment to defend Philly fans. Although they have a poor reputation, I can only comment on my own personal experience. When my Astros won the World Series just four months ago, multiple Phillies fans congratulated me. I thought that was a classy move, especially for a city with a bad reputation. I only hope that I can pay it forward here on Sunday. PICK: EAGLES -2.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) On first look, this line seems suspicious. The Chiefs are getting points at home? However, several factors validate the interest in the Bengals. First, Patrick Mahomes is hobbled with a high-ankle sprain suffered last week. Secondly, Cincinnati has won 10 straight games overall and is 13-3 ATS since Week 2. Third, the Bengals are 7-1 in their last eight games versus the Chiefs. Finally, Joe Burrow has never lost to Kansas City. How much interest is there in the Bengals? This game opened with Cincinnati as 2.5-point dogs and has swung a whopping 5 points. The Bengals have won 7-of-8 against Kansas City, including three in a row by a mere three points. Two of those narrow victories came in 2022, including in this very game last January. Also, Cincinnati beat Kansas City 27-24 back in Week 13. In last year’s AFC title game, Joe Burrow threw for 250 yards and a pair of scores. But the Bengals attempted to keep the ball out of KC’s hands and ran the ball 27 times for 116 yards. That approach led to Cincy controlling the ball for over 35 minutes. A similar tactic is likely to happen Sunday. The Bengals have also been brilliant on the road. As a result, Cincinnati has a sparkling 8-2 ATS record as a visitor, including 6-1 vs. AFC rivals. Also, with the league’s No. 7 overall defense, the under has hit in 11 of Cincinnati’s last 15 road games. Finally, the under has also hit in seven of the last eight meetings between these two clubs when playing at Arrowhead. For the Chiefs, the major concern is the health of their quarterback. Mahomes was able to return to action last week but was noticeably affected. High-ankle sprains usually take weeks to recover from. However, Mahomes was a full participant in practice Wednesday. Meanwhile, Mahomes told the media he is feeling better than he expected and reports are that Mahomes looked fully healthy on the field. If that is the case, there would be a lot of value in picking the Chiefs as home dogs. Mahomes is 7-1-1 against the spread as an underdog at Arrowhead. Overall, KC went 8-1 in front of the home crowd. Like with Cincinnati, there is a strong lean on the under.

NFL Division Round Game Picks

The postseason opening slate certainly had its share of drama. After a 5-1 start in our NFL Wild Card Game Picks, we’ll look to the winning ways going with our NFL Division Round Game Picks. While we’re on the topic of upcoming football, don’t forget the FFWC NFL Playoff Leagues are here! Why sit out when you can draft a playoff league squad and win amazing prizes? Whether its’ the FREE Beat Our Experts Best ball Playoff Challenge, a life-changing trip to Maui in the Maui Madness Best ball Challenge, or a shot at $20,000 in the 2023 Playoff Draft Draft World Championship, there’s something for everyone. Click below to find out more. But first, let’s break down the NFL Division Round Game Picks. Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) Jacksonville has won six straight games but that streak is very likely to end on Saturday. The Jaguars are the biggest underdogs in the Division Round and have the unenviable task of traveling on a short week to take on the well-rest Chiefs. Prior to losing the AFC Championship last January to the Bengals, Kansas City had won seven straight postseason games at Arrowhead. Overall, the Chiefs have won their last five but things haven’t always been easy. The Chiefs were just 7-10 ATS in the regular season and 3-5 at home. Although the Chiefs have a potent offense and a defense that gives up plenty of points, the under has hit five of the last six home games. The Chiefs have won six straight the Jags, but the total has gone under in four of those games. This is a tough spot for the Jags. Jacksonville has only won four of its last 25 road games. Worse, they’ll have to deal with the elements at Arrowhead, where the Jags have dropped four straight by an average score of 30-16. Also, the over hit in just one of the last five games in KC between these two squads. PICK: UNDER 53 New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) This will be the third matchup in a month for these two NFC East rivals. Philadelphia won both regular-season tilts, but New York hung tough in a meaningless Week 18 showing at Lincoln Financial Field. Playing in the City of Brotherly Love has been difficult for the Giants. New York hasn’t won in Philadelphia since 2013. Jalen Hurts should be fully healthy, which makes a big difference for the Eagles. Having Hurts absent or limited has hurt Philly. The Eagles are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five. Interestingly, the Eagles have won 18 of their last 20 games outright as favorites. However, Philadelphia has dropped four straight as playoff favorites. Fun Fact: The Giants are 6-0 all-time versus No. 1 seeds dating back to 1990. Pulling postseason upsets and covers is nothing new for the G-Men. New York has covered 10 of their last 11 games as playoff underdogs and outright won 8-of-9 as dogs. Also, the Giants are an NFL-best 14-4 against the spread this season. Division rematches in the playoffs also tend to favor the underdog. Plus, we’re getting more than a touchdown. PICK: Giants +7.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) Emotions will be high in this one. Cincinnati was leading Buffalo and driving before the Damar Hamlin injury ultimately stopped play. The Bengals feel like this game should be played in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Bills want to shake off a rusty Wild Card performance and prove this game is rightfully being played in Orchard Park. These two AFC powers have evenly split their last eight meetings. The Bills have won eight consecutive games and enter this game 14-3 overall. However, the Bills were a middling 8-8-1 ATS, including 4-5 versus the number at home. Buffalo has only covered the number twice in their last seven at Highmark Stadium. But, scoring hasn’t been an issue. The over has hit in five of Buffalo’s last six home contests. Plus, the Bills have won 7 of their last 9 home games against the Bengals, with the total going over seven times. At 12-5 against the number, Cincinnati boasts the second-best ATS record in the NFL. Overall, the Bengals have won nine straight games and covered the spread in seven of their last eight away games. Plenty of points have been scored in this series, as well. Weather doesn’t appear to be much of a factor on Sunday, so Joe Burrow should be able to keep pace with Buffalo’s potent offense. PICK: Bengals +5.5 Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4) Some of the most memorable NFC playoff games in history were between the Cowboys and the 49ers. This will be a record-tying ninth postseason meeting between San Francisco and Dallas. The Niners knocked off the Cowboys in the opening round one year ago. This time, Dallas is on the road and has to contend with a 49ers squad that has won a league-best 11 consecutive games. San Francisco’s last loss was in Week 7. Since then, QB Brock Purdy has taken over and helped spark the offense. The 49ers have scored 33-plus points in six of their last seven games. The over has hit in 6-of-7 and the Niners have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games. But, things haven’t been easy when playing the Cowboys. Dallas has gone 6-2 straight up against San Francisco and 1-5 in their last six at home. Dallas has been one of the best road teams in the NFL over the past two seasons. The Cowboys went 5-4 ATS on the road in 2022 and were 8-1 in 2021. While San Francisco has the league’s top defense, Dallas has the kind of balanced offense that can try to establish the run or challenge a secondary that surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Dallas has gone 7-3 (5-3-2) vs. San Francisco since 2001 and should be able to keep this one a one-possession game. PICK: Dallas +4

NFL Wild Card Game Picks

The regular season is history but there is still plenty of NFL action ahead. The postseason opening weekend boasts three straight days of action. Our NFL Wild Card Game Picks looks at each contest and picks the best bets to win. While we’re on the topic of upcoming football, don’t forget the FFWC NFL Playoff Leagues are here! Why sit out when you can draft a playoff league squad and win amazing prizes? Whether its’ the FREE Beat Our Experts Bestball Playoff Challenge, a life-changing trip to Maui in the Maui Madness Bestball Challenge, or a shot at $20,000 in the 2023 Playoff Draft Draft World Championship, there’s something for everyone. Click below to find out more. But first, let’s break down the NFL Wild Card Game Picks. Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) The Seahawks limped into the NFC’s final postseason spot. Their reward: a road matchup against the hottest team in football. San Francisco has won 10 games in a row. Plus, the Niners swept the Seahawks during the regular season. That sweep was a surprise to some as Seattle had dominated San Francisco in recent years. QB Geno Smith could very well be the Comeback Player of the Year. However, this is a poor spot for a struggling team. Brock Purdy has looked fantastic since taking over under center for the 49ers. San Fran is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight. Meanwhile, Seattle has the opposite record, 1-7 ATS. Also, San Francisco has won five straight at home by an average score of 16 points. PICK: San Francisco -9.5 (WIN) Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) This will be the first playoff game for many of the players in this AFC Wild Card showdown. That can make things difficult to handicap. The Chargers won four of their last five to make the tournament. Also, they were 4-0-1 against the spread down the stretch. LA should have a sight advantage with QB Justin Herbert but will be without WR Mike Williams. Also, traveling east can cause issues for west-coast squads. Meanwhile, the Jags have a lot of momentum. Jacksonville won their final five contests to surge into the postseason for the first time since 2017. Undoubtedly, Doug Pederson‘s postseason experience could be a big advantage. Plus, the Jaguars have a league-high seven games as underdogs in 2022. PICK: Jaguars +2.5 (WIN) Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5) There is no doubt where the momentum lies here. The Bills have looked like the best team in football at times and are extra motivated to play for Damar Hamlin. Meanwhile, Miami cratered down the stretch and is forced to trot out their third-string quarterback in a hostile environment. Plus, it will be 25 degrees at Orchard Park. That hasn’t been a good situation for the Dolphins. Seventh-round rookie QB Skylar Thompson attempted 10-plus passes in four games. In all, he tossed one touchdown and three interceptions. Also, the Dolphins have dropped 8-of-9 to Buffalo and are 3-7-1 ATS at Highmark Stadium It’s hard not to root for Josh Allen and company. The Bills Mafia might be the most passionate fan base in sports and will certainly play a factor Saturday. Buffalo has won 11-of-12 at home and dominated the Dolphins. The over has been hot in this series and it feels like the Bills could approach that number themselves. PICK: OVER 43.5 (WIN) New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3) Sunday’s opener might be the most difficult game to pick. By looking at their 13-4 record, the Vikings should be big favorites. Instead, Vegas is telling us these teams are practically even. It feels like the house is begging us to take Minnesota. Conversely, the Giants didn’t exactly dominate down the stretch. However, the Giants were a very good spread team, covering six of their final seven games. New York went 1-4 overall in their last five road games but, oddly, were 7-1 ATS on the road. The Vikings were the opposite. Minnesota has won 9-of-10 at U.S. Bank Stadium but covered in just one of their last five. The Giants have the advantage defensively, and that might be just enough to keep them in this game late. PICK: Giants +3 (WIN) Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) On initial look, this looks like a trap. The Ravens may be down to third-string QB Anthony Brown and are playing a second-consecutive game in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the defending AFC champions were 12-4 both straight up and against the spread. It feels like the Bengals should be favored by double-digits. So what gives? Baltimore has fared quite well against the Bengals. The Ravens are 6-3 in their last nine versus Cincinnati. Baltimore has a dominant rushing attack but without Lamar Jackson and facing the league’s No. 7 run D will be a problem. If Tyler Huntley is under center, things improve, But, points will be at a premium. Meanwhile, the Bengals have covered five of their last six at home. QB Joe Burrow shouldn’t have issues facing a Baltimore pass defense that ranked 26th. But the Ravens will likely try to slow things down and that and the under has hit in 5-of-6 Baltimore games and 6-of-9 Bengals’ games at home. PICK: UNDER 42 (WIN) Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) The Monday night capper should be a great one. America’s hated team travels to Tampa to face the GOAT. The Buccaneers struggled all season and limp into the playoffs with an 8-9 record. Can Tom Brady make one final postseason run as an underdog? As bad as the Bucs were straight up, they were worst against the number. Tampa was a pathetic 4-12-1 ATS and just 2-6-1 at home. Tampa also has some injury concerns up front, which is bad news against a Dallas defense that ranked 2nd in sack rate. Dallas appears to have the advantage on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys have also been excellent on the road and have won 10 of their last 12 games on Monday night. However, Dallas has only covered the

Super Bowl Preview: Betting & DFS Tips

Although this wasn’t the outcome most of us expected back in August, we have finally reached the final NFL game of the season and Super Bowl LVI is shaping up to be an exciting contest. The NFC is represented by

Although this wasn’t the outcome most of us expected back in August, we have finally reached the final NFL game of the season and Super Bowl LVI is shaping up to be an exciting contest.

The NFC is represented by Sean McVay‘s Los Angeles Rams, who last won a title back in the 1999 season and last appeared two seasons later losing Super Bowl XXXVI 20-17. This is the Rams’ fifth overall appearance.

Making their third overall appearance, the AFC’s Cincinnati Bengals have never won an NFL championship and this is their time playing in the Super Bowl in 40 years. The Bengals are 0-2 in their previous Super Bowls.

Both teams were the respective conference’s 4-seeds, making this the first game since 1975 without at least one team being a top-3 playoff entrant.

As with any NFL finale, Sunday will be treated as a national holiday with plenty of daily fantasy and betting action taking place.

Our Conference Championships bets went a perfect 4-0, so Let’s break down how the game might go and pick our best bets for Super Bowl LVI.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Current Line: Cincinnati +4; over/under 48.5

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NFL Playoff Preview: Conference Championship Betting & DFS Tips

We are down to the NFL’s final four teams after a wild Divisional round that saw all four games decided on the final play- an NFL first. Football fans are now just one afternoon away from knowing which two teams

Both conference championship tilts this week feature rematches from the 2021 regular season, which can complicate matters from a betting and fantasy perspective.

Let’s break down the 49ers/Rams and Bengals/Chiefs games on Sunday and see how sports betting and NFL DFS fans should approach the penultimate week of football.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Current line: Cincinnati +7; over/under 54.5