Scouting The NBA – 10/18/17
Point Guards John Wall – (9,800 DK/10,000 FD) Wall’s been extremely efficient while showing off an improved jumper before resting in the final game of the preseason. Now he draws a juicy matchup in his regular season debut against a Sixers team that improved last year, yet still gave up the seventh-most PPG (108.1). Wall averaged 23.4 PPG and 10.8 APG at home and 27 PPG and 9 APG over 3 meetings with Philadelphia last year. Look for him to dictate the action in the Wizards home opener. Damian Lillard – (10,400 DK/8,800 FD) With C.J. McCollum suspended for the Blazers opener, Lillard will be a very popular play and justifiably so. He averaged 1.36 points per minute with a 2.2% increase in usage rate with CJM off the floor last year and should be able to dissect a Suns team that’s given up the third-most FPPG (49.67) and most PPG (26.01) to opposing PGs over the last two seasons. Lillard torched the Suns to the tune of 33.8 PPG on 47% FG shooting over 4 meetings last year and he has a great new running mate at the center position in Jusuf Nurkic. Potential Value Dennis Smith Jr. – (6,800 DK/4,300FD) Dennis Smith Jr. is extremely cheap on FanDuel to open the season given his upside as the floor leader for Dallas. Longshot Kyrie Irving – (8,500 DK/8,200 FD) Kyrie Irving is going to hoist a ton of shots for the Celtics after Gordon Hayward’s season-ending injury and Terry Rozier ($3800/3100 as SG) should see more run as a result. Shooting Guards D’Angelo Russell – (6,600DK/6,600FD) The Nets offense will likely run through Russell this year, making him an appealing early-season target until his price tag adjusts to his new usage rate. He was restricted by Byron Scott’s old school antics two years ago and bogged down in a deep Lakers rotation last year, but now he’ll start at SG on a team with only Jeremy Lin and Allen Crabbe as alternative scoring options. Brooklyn led the league in pace last year and the Pacers middling defense should become far worse with Darren Collison taking over for the much more athletic Jeff Teague at the point. Jaylen Brown – ($3,900 DK/$3,700 FD) It doesn’t matter of Brown is close to 90% owned tonight, you’re going to want to play the Celtics budding star at this ridiculously low-price tag. Minutes are money in NBA DFS and Jaylen played 40 minutes in the season opener due in part to Hayward’s season-ending injury. He didn’t shy away from big moments, taking and making huge shots down the stretch and guarding LeBron James, and draws another big challenge tonight with Giannis Antetokounmpo coming to town. The only way Brown fails to meet value is an injury or continuous foul trouble. Potential Value Rodney Hood – (5,800 DK/4,500 FD) Rodney Hood is bound to see an increase in usage with Gordon Hayward no longer in a Jazz uniform and Ricky Rubio looking to feed the sharpshooter. Longshot Victor Oladipo – (6,800 DK/6,100 FD) Victor Oladipo will be the man in the backcourt for Indiana as they look to replace Paul George’s production. Small Forwards Rudy Gay – (5,500 DK/5,500 FD) With Kawhi Leonard (quad) expected to miss at least opening night and possibly more games, the Spurs should immediately look to utilize their new acquisition. Gay has been accused of playing selfish basketball at times, but chances are Gregg Popovich and his staff have already coached him up during training camp and will help him fit within their system. With LaMarcus Aldridge struggling to close the season and set to match up with the Wolves formidable front court, Gay could be the Spurs main source of offense at home in a winnable matchup against pure scorer Andrew Wiggins. Jayson Tatum – (3,500 FD/4,100DK) Tatum would’ve been a great value at PF regardless because Marcus Morris (knee) is still about a week away from returning, but Gordon Hayward’s season-ending injury forces him into must-play consideration along with Jaylen Brown. The rookie impressed tremendously with 10 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assists while playing 37 minutes and there’s been no time for his price tag to adjust, so you almost have to use him due to the Celtics suddenly shallow rotation. Potential Value Jeremy Lamb – (3,500 FD/5,700 DK) Jeremy Lamb should soak up minutes over the next couple of months with Nicholas Batum out. Longshot Otto Porter – (5,800 FD/5,700 DK) Otto Porter has a great floor-ceiling combination in a plus matchup against the Sixers at home. Power Forwards Anthony Davis – (10,800 FD/10,500 DK) If you go cheap at SG and SF tonight, as makes sense, you’ll have enough money to insert AD at PF without much issue. He’s not expected to be limited by an illness in any way, but that questionable tag combined with a perceived tough matchup at Memphis should lower his ownership rate. Marc Gasol can only guard one of Davis of DeMarcus Cousins and that would leave AD to work against young PF JaMychal Green. Aaron Gordon – (6,900 FD/6,300 DK) Gordon flashed a much-improved shooting touch from the outside this preseason and is expected to make a leap in his fourth NBA season. If he can supplement his inside prowess with a perimeter game, the sky is the limit for a player with even more athleticism than Blake Griffin when he came out of school. Along with Elfrid Payton, he’s poised to lead a young Magic team that is flush with young talent and he should be able to bully Miami’s smaller frontcourt while Nikola Vucevic and Hassan Whiteside tangle. Potential Value Jason Smith – (4,000 FD/3,900 DK) Jason Smith will likely start for Washington with Markief Morris (abdomen) out. Longshot James Johnson – (5,500 FD/5,500 DK) James Johnson is expected to come off the bench with Kelly Olynyk starting for Miami,
NBA Opening Night – Jaguar Lou’s Cash Plays
Welcome to another NBA Fantasy Season! Before I give my cash picks for tonight’s games, I just wanted to make a couple points about NBA DFS strategy that you should know if you expect to win any tournaments – GPP or Cash. Make sure you monitor all lineups until they are confirmed. A simple last-minute lineup change can alter usage numbers creating a play that is cheap and obvious. For example, five minutes before lineup lock the Cavs confirm that Lebron is not playing, this is important not only because you’ll have to remove Lebron from your lineups but also because the game usage for Kevin Love will undoubtingly go through the roof! Adjustments like this take your DFS game to the next level. Correlations are important to recognize. Kill two birds with one stone, if you know two guys who play well off each other, play them together. Beware of the blow out! Just remember, teams sit their starters in games where they’re getting blown out. Your starters can’t get points if they’re on the bench! On two game slates like tonight make more than one lineup! You can limit your risk by investing in just a few extra lineups, hedging one lineup off another. PG Kyrie Irving – 8,200 FD & 8,300 DK Kyrie Irving is starting the 2017-2018 season against his old team the Cleveland Cavaliers – a team he demanded to trade him just a few months ago. Putting aside the fact that he’s matching up against an aging Derrick Rose, this is a spite game for Kyrie. This is a narrative play by all accounts but logical as well. Kyrie should benefit off assists and possibly some rebounds to along with 25+ points. I do think this game stays close and Irving will be a big part of that. Assuming Jaylen Brown and/or Marcus Smart are responsible for guarding Lebron James, Boston’s offensive production should really boil down to three main players: Kyrie Irving, Al Horford and Gordon Heyward. Out of these three players Kyrie would be my most confident pick, making him my lock of the day. Containing Lebron James will not be easy but that’s Brown/Smart’s problem, Kyrie’s responsibility is to keep the Celtic’s in the game, a task that I’m confident he completes tonight in a stadium full of Cleveland fans who will likely be fueling his rage by booing his name all night long. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash PG Option(s): Derrick Rose SG Klay Thompson – 6,800 FD & 6,200 DK Some might say this is more of a GPP play but I disagree. Klay Thompson will be guarding James Harden. Everyone know that James Harden kills it on the offensive end of the court but the fact is, he’s allowed a ton of points on the defensive end of the court. Klay Thompson will not only benefit from Harden’s inconsistent defense, he will also benefit from the guaranteed 35+ minutes he will see on the court as he should be guarding James Harden for the entire game. Assuming Klay Thompson stays out of foul trouble, I believe this matchup creates an opportunity for a big game from Klay as well as maintaining a solid floor for cash games. At such reasonable salaries around the industry, Klay’s chances of reaching value are very good. The Golden State Warriors are favored at – 9.5 with a massive 229.5 O/U. ** Draymond Green is dealing with back problems and is currently a GTD, continue to monitor! ** Other Cash SG Option(s): Dwayne Wade & James Harden SF/PF Jae Crowder –4,500 FD & 4,300 DK **This play is contingent on Jae Crowder starting** If the projections are correct Jae Crowder will be starting tonight and matching up against Jayson Tatum – the rookie that ultimately replaced him. Similar to the Kyrie narrative, Crowder is going to want to show up and prove to the Celtics what they gave up. Also, similar to the Kyrie narrative, Crowder exhibits a favorable matchup in both size and skill. In his first game with the Cleveland Cavaliers look for some hustle out of Crowder and with Rookie Jayson Tatum guarding him, beware of a potentially big game for Jae Crowder. Not to mention, Crowder racks up a variety of stats, which is the best kind of fantasy player to roster for cash games. If this game stays close, I can see Crowder putting up 10/5+/5+ considering he should be heavily involved in Cleveland’s offense. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash SF Option(s): Lebron James, Gordon Heyward & Kevin Durant PF/C Kevin Love – 7,000 FD & 7,800 DK Regardless of if Lebron James suits up or not (I don’t see him missing this game), Kevin Love is in a nice matchup against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics had significant problems protecting the rim last season, ranking 26th allowing an average of 44.5 rebounds per game. Boston specifically struggled protecting their own basket allowing an average of 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, ranking the Celtics 5th worst in the league. Al Horford is a very talented Center but in my mind, is no match for Kevin Love. Current projections have Love playing Center and Jae Crowder playing the 4, either way I don’t think the Celtics have the personnel to hold down Kevin Love. I do think this is the game to target on tonight's two game slate – It should be a close, high scoring affair filled with emotion. The question is, what is the right combination of players to have full exposure to this game? Start by locking in Kevin Love at a very reasonable salary on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash PF Option(s): Draymond Green & Ryan Anderson (more of a GPP play but plausible) C Clint
The Fuego Pit – NBA GPP Plays Tuesday 10/17
NBA GPP Plays 10/17/17 Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. Today we have only two games on the slate. I usually love the two game mini slates, but not a super fan of two on the main slate. Make sure you enter single entry and 3 max contests. If entering the low dollar GPPs with 150 max entries, I suggest you do multiple lineups. Draftkings does offer the $3 20 max tournament which I like. Almost everyone is in play on a two-game slate, especially if doing multiple lineups. Though I don’t suggest going too heavy tonight. The odds of a tie tonight are much greater than a larger slate which hurts your overall ROI. Point Guard Kyrie Irving – Irving is my favorite of the high-priced point guards. If you like narratives, he has something to prove to Lebron and the rest of the Cavs. Derrick Rose – If playing Irving at one point guard spot and want a lower priced option as your second, Rose is the one I like. If you want to play Steph Curry at PG, you could pair him with Marcus Smart. I also like pairing Curry and Irving if you want to pay up for both point guards. Shooting Guard Klay Thompson – He has the highest upside at shooting guard outside of James Harden. I prefer to pay down for shooting guard when I can. However, being only a two-game slate with limited options, he is my favorite play at the position. Jaylen Brown – Brown should be starting at the two guard tonight for the Celtics. We saw his potential in a few games last season. He is only $3700 on Fanduel and a way to get some of the studs in your lineup. I think I am fading James Harden in my main lineup tonight. I kind of want to see how he and Chris Paul interact. I think it will hurt some of Harden’s overall fantasy production. I am liking the lineups I make without him more than the ones with him. He is certainly in play though and will have in some of my other lineups. Small Forward Lebron James – At the time of this article, James is listed as a game time decision. I think he plays and plays well. This is a perfect example of having a backup plan. If you put him in your lineup, pay close attention to the news. If he is a no go, make sure you have a backup plan in place. Kevin Durant – Durant is always in play, I find myself debating between him and Lebron in my main lineups. Gordon Hayward – Hayward should benefit from a new style offense leaving the Utah Jazz. He doesn’t have quite the ceiling of James or Durant, but has a good price of $7600. Jayson Tatum – A low priced option to help get more superstars in your lineup. He too should be starting for the Celtics tonight. Small forward is one of the deeper positions today and there are several ways you can construct your roster. I don’t even mind pairing Tatum and Hayward. Power Forward Kevin Love – I am looking forward to seeing Love as the second option on the Cavaliers. He took a back seat to James and Irving last year and still produced at a high level. With Irving gone, his numbers in all categories should go up. Jay Crowder – If this was a larger main slate, I wouldn’t consider playing Crowder and Love on the same lineup. However, two game slates you sometimes must break the general rules for roster construction. Power forward is one of the weaker positions on the slate so I am fine using the two of them together. Center Clint Capela – Most of my lineups have Capela at center as he is $1200 less than Al Horford. The Rockets seem committed to letting Capela really take the reins at the center position. Last year, he and Nene would start at different times and would split minutes a lot. If Capela gets most of the minutes, he should benefit from Paul joining the team. Al Horford – If you have the money left to get to Horford he would be my second option at the position. Tune in to the NBA Live Stream at 5 p.m. to get my updated thoughts on the slate. Myself, JaguarLou and other experts will be in the NBA chat from 6-8 to help you set your lineups.
NBA Live at 5
Scouting The NBA DFS – Tuesday, October 17
Plays of the Day Value: While Celtics HC Brad Stevens is often reluctant to play rookies extensive minutes, No. 3 overall pick Jayson Tatum is no normal rookie. The path is clear for him to log significant run in his NBA debut with Marcus Morris (knee) already ruled out. Fade: Either Chris Paul or James Harden will suffer statistically from playing with each other and both are very risky in a tough matchup against the defending champion Warriors. Fade Harden at $11k on FanDuel and CP3 on DK. Game Lines Golden State Warriors (-9.5) hosting Houston Rockets (Over/Under = 231.5) Cleveland Cavs (-3.5) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 212.5) Point Guards Two Studs Stephen Curry (GSW) vs. HOU DK:$8,800/FD:$9,700 Curry is a relative bargain on DK and really has been since Kevin Durant donned a Warriors uniform last year. Yet he’s coming off another extremely efficient season in which he shot 46.8% from the floor and posted a .580 effective field goal percentage while hitting 324 threes. The 0.5-point bonus for every 3PTM on DK is obviously a big bonus for Steph and he should get a full slate of playing time with Houston bringing in CP3 and looking to challenge the Warriors this year. Curry averaged 31.5 PPG and 7 APG while shooting an absurd 55% from the floor over 4 meetings against Paul in a Clippers uniform last year and he’s always a dynamic threat at Oracle Arena. Kyrie Irving (BOS) @ CLE DK:$8,300/FD:$8,200 All eyes will be on Kyrie tonight in his immediate return to Cleveland and apparently that’s how he likes it. The best ball handler in the NBA will probably make mincemeat out of Derrick Rose and/or Dwayne Wade early on before LeBron James potentially shifts over to guard him in crunchtime. Yet we can expect heavy output from Irving in his Celtics debut considering he posted a 38.7% Usage Rate with LeBron off the floor last season. Cleveland ranked 21st in defensive efficiency last year and only got older in the backcourt this offseason. Potential Value Marcus Smart ($4800/$5300) should log heavy minutes alongside Kyrie and Gordon Hayward as the Celtics best wing defender. Longshot Derrick Rose ($5000/$5500) has the potential for a redemptive season with LeBron and Kevin Love drawing the defense and opening up more driving lanes for him. Shooting Guards Two Studs Eric Gordon (HOU) @ GSW DK:$4,600/FD:$5,200 No, this is not an error in which we recommended the wrong Rockets SG, simply a strategy to fade James Harden at his lofty price tag as he learns to play with Chris Paul on the fly in a hostile environment. Gordon shot just 9-of-30 from three over 4 meetings with the Warriors last year, but revamped his shot this offseason and looked even more lethal from downtown during the preseason as a result. He’ll definitely pay off if he can knock down his looks in what should be a shootout in the Bay tonight. Jaylen Brown (BOS) @ CLE DK:$3,700/FD:$3,700 The Celtics offer a bevy of value plays at the wing position and there’s more clarity in that regard with Marcus Morris already ruled out for their first few games. Brad Stevens has shown a hesitancy to play rookies extensive minutes, but now that Brown has some NBA experience he should remain in the rotation and could even start against LeBron and the Cavs. He’s established a solid floor with per 36 averages of 13.8 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.4 STL/BLK last year, and the sky is the limit for Jaylen in terms of upside. Potential Value Dwayne Wade ($5200/$6000) can’t be trusted all season, but he should show up for big games, including the Cavs opener against rival Boston. Longshot Klay Thompson ($6200/$6800) will need to catch fire to exceed value since he provides very little peripheral stats, but he’s certainly capable of going off at any time. Small Forwards Stud LeBron James (CLE) vs. BOS DK:$10,200/FD:$10,400 There is essentially no chance LeBron misses the season opener against Kyrie Irving and his newest blood rival with an ankle injury, but hopefully that questionable tag will lower his ownership rate. Expect LBJ to cover Kyrie at times, to rip through the Celtics promising (but still young) combination of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, and put the first exhibit of his MVP campaign on tap while leading the Cavs to a home win on Opening Night. He stepped up against the Celtics to average 29.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 8.1 APG and 3.0 STL/BLK per game over 9 contests including the regular season and playoffs last year, and remains slighty under priced because of his reputation for taking games off. Potential Value Jayson Tatum ($3900/$3500) should start for the Celtics with Marcus Morris out and he’s looked NBA-ready thus far. Longshot Of course Kevin Durant ($9600/$9800) is a premier play in any format in a fast-paced matchup against Houston. Power Forwards Stud Kevin Love (CLE) vs. BOS: DK:$7,800/FD:$7,000 Love is expected to see more usage this year with Kyrie Irving gone and Isaiah Thomas (hip) several months away from seeing the court. More importantly, he’s expected to see a lot more action at the 5, where he can exploit slower big men and use his potent shooting to keep the Cavs offense rolling. That might not be too easy against Al Horford and the Celtics, but posting a double double should be against a team that ranked 22nd in total rebounding last year and has given up the fifth-most RPG (12.68) to opposing PFs over the last two seasons. Potential Value Jae Crowder ($4300/$4500) will be highly motivated to stick it to his former team tonight. Longshot Perhaps Draymond Green ($7000/$8300) will be overlooked because of his back injury, and produce one of his quintessential stat-stuffing lines. Centers Stud Clint Capela (HOU) @ GSW: DK:$5,600/FD:$6,000 The options are limited at this position on a two-game slate, especially on FanDuel, where Capela stands head and shoulders above the competition in terms of safety.
NBA Basics – Instructional Video Fuego Steve
Strategy Video – Entering Multiple Lineups
NBA Preview – Big Trades – Jaguar Lou
As we rapidly approach the start of the 2017 NBA season, I simply couldn’t wait to write-up some solid NBA DFS content. With opening night right around the corner, I have prepared the very first JaguarLou NBA Preview article to briefly discuss some of the more noteworthy off-season moves and how these moves are going to affect your DFS strategy to start the 2017 NBA season. Let’s go one by one: Houston Rockets receive: Chris Paul L.A Clippers receive: Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, DeAndre Liggins, Montrezl Harrell, Danilo Gallinari (separate trade) Houston Rockets Despite the quantity of solid depth that the Clippers received in this trade, I believe the Houston Rockets benefit in a much more significant way. Chris Paul starting with James Harden, Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson is going to create a lot of fantasy goodness but who benefits the most? It’s easy to say, “Pair up Chris Paul with James Harden, Paul will dish out 15+ assists a game and Harden will be scoring 30+ a game off Paul’s assist.” I Can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that, thanks for the sneaky pick! The real question is, how does this change in personnel create value? The answer, Ryan Anderson. Ryan Anderson did not perform to his potential but still impressed in his first season with the Houston Rockets. It’s not that his numbers were horrible, because they weren’t. In fact, a lot of his stats remained consistent from the year before when he played for the New Orleans Pelicans. His minutes remained consistent at roughly 30.0 mpg, his FG% dropped slightly from .427 to .418 and his 3PT% slightly increased to .403. Nothing too major. The only noticeable change was a decrease in his shot attempts, which will happen when you join a team with James Harden who last season averaged 18.9 FGA/game. James Harden was forced to take on most of the point guard work himself last season and I don’t think that this was what the Rockets wanted. I think they were forced to put Harden in this role due to a lack of production from their other point guards. Now this off-season they go out and get the point guard of all point guards, Chris Paul. Chris Paul was brought onto this team for one main reason, to facilitate the ball. Yes, he’s getting up there in age but with Paul’s clearly defined role as a facilitator, I believe Coach Mike D’Antoni uses the 32-year-old future Hall of Famer in a smart yet effective way to where I don’t think age becomes a factor just yet. In the most prolonged way possible, my overall point is that I believe the addition of Chris Paul benefits one main player, Ryan Anderson. Anderson has been in the NBA nine years and has consistently produced in whatever situation he’s been put into. After being traded to the powerhouse Houston Rockets in 2016, I predicted an all-star season for Ryan Anderson. I had been watching him for years and knew that a talented big man who could also shoot the three would thrive on a high scoring team like the Rockets…Things didn’t quite work out this way for a variety of reasons but with Chris Paul running the point, I’m going back to the well and predicting that Ryan Anderson will be in store for his best season yet. With James Harden no longer responsible for running the point, he can now play the two guard and do what he does best…score! Opposing teams around the league are going to have to pick their poison – Doubling Harden, pressuring Chris Paul, these strategies always leave someone unaccounted for and/or mismatched. I firmly believe Ryan Anderson (and Trevor Ariza for that matter) benefit most from the addition of Chris Paul. Chris Paul is currently a pass first point guard – with Ryan Anderson’s natural skill set, it’s only a matter of time before Paul’s pass first mentality gives the three-point shooting forward massively productive games. **I got so amped up writing about Anderson, I forgot that I wanted to briefly mention Clint Capela. With Montrezl Harrell getting traded to the Clippers, Houston management is making a statement and that statement is, Clint Capela is our Center. Capela should be in for a productive season benefiting from the pick and roll that Chris Paul has perfected throughout his 12 years in the league. Montrezl Harrell and Clint Capela sharing minutes last season hurt both players overall production but now with Montrezl Harrell in Los Angeles, expect major numbers from Houston’s Primary big man, Clint Capela.** Clippers Putting aside the obvious notion that Blake Griffin’s usage will increase becoming the Clippers main offensive option, I wanted to briefly mention Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari is a great addition to this team and is complimented well by the players around him. Starting at Small Forward, I believe Danilo Gallinari can put up big numbers in the early going as opposing teams will most likely be concerned with limiting Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan inside the paint. Losing Chris Paul is tough but Patrick Beverly isn’t a scrub. Gallinari has always been capable of accumulating a variety of fantasy relevant stats – Los Angeles might be the perfect place for him to showcase these capabilities, especially with Chris Paul no longer the focal point of this offense. Boston Celtics receive: Kyrie Irving Cleveland Cavaliers receive: Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic Boston Celtics This could very well be considered the most controversial trade of the off season. Isaiah Thomas, in the last year of his contract gets sent to Cleveland to try and replace one of the most talented players in the NBA, Kyrie Irving. Putting aside my own bias opinions about this trade, I believe the affect this trade will have on the Daily Fantasy Sports world is pretty cut and dry. I am fully expecting Kyrie Irving to make it his business to show everyone who “won” this trade as early on as possible. Boston fans might