Scouting the NBA – 11/1/17
Plays of the Day Value: Tyreke Evans is healthier than he’s been in several years and he’s been producing with 52 points, 23 rebounds and 7 assists over his last 3 appearances, topping out at 30 minutes while dropping a double double in his last game. Tonight he’ll face a Magic squad that’s ranked third in the NBA in pace and could see more work if Mike Conley (Achilles) is limited. Fade: DeMarcus Cousins slowed down in a decisive loss for the Pelicans his last time out and now he faces one of the few defenders big enough and quick enough to contain him in fellow Kentucky Wildcat Karl-Anthony Towns. Point Guards Kemba Walker – (7,600 DK/8,400 FD) Walker’s been on fire recently and he should lead the charge against a Bucks team that will be on the road for the second half of a B2B set tonight. With career-best marks of 25.2 points and 6.6 assists per 36 minutes so far this year, Kemba’s playing better than he has in years, and he’s peaked with 87 points and 21 dimes over his last 3 games. Milwaukee’s giving up an above average 47.85 FPPG to opposing PGs this season and Walker is still relatively cheap on DK. Mike James – (4,700 DK/4,500 FD) The Suns rookie continued to score efficiently with 24 points on 9-of-16 FG shooting, adding 5 assists and 5 steals as well last night to put some distance between himself and backup PG Tyler Ulis. James is rocking a 26.8% assist rate and seeing plenty of opportunities as the maestro of a Suns team that ranks second in the NBA in pace. Washington ranks third in pace for opposing PGs and John Wall’s using a ton of energy on the offensive end to sap his defensive value. Potential Value Jarrett Jack – (4,700 DK/5,200 FD) Jack has effectively turned the Knicks season around with steady play and he should see 30-plus minutes against the Rockets tonight. Longshot Jeff Teague – (6,400 DK/7,100 FD) Teague had a huge game on Monday and continues to find a home as the PG for a very talented Wolves team. Shooting Guards Evan Fournier – (6,600 DK/7,300 FD) Don’t be intimidated by seeing Memphis on the schedule for a slashing guard. The Grizzles are down defensively with Tony Allen gone, rookie Dillon Brooks playing steady minutes and the shell of Chandler Parsons rotating in at SF, while team leaders Mike Conley (Achilles) and Marc Gasol (ankle) are both questionable tonight. Fournier’s thrived in just about every matchup as the trigger man for a Magic team that ranks third in the NBA in pace, as he’s 34-for-54 from the field (63%) while averaging 24 PPG over his last 4 appearances. He’s established a much higher floor and his usage should continue to rise if Elfrid Payton (hamstring) is unable to return to the court tonight. Eric Gordon – (6,700 DK/6,400 FD) With Chris Paul (knee) on the shelf, Gordon is creating much more often. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year is posting a 17.7% assist rate, well up from the 12.3% mark last year and his usage rate his skyrocketed from 22.1% to 31.6% this season. After missing Saturday’s tilt with a stomach bug, he returned to drop 25 points over 37 minutes against the 76ers and should find space to create against a Knicks team that gives up the most APG (11.33) and third-most FPPG (51.95) to opposing PGs this season. Potential Value Austin Rivers – (4,900 DK/4,900 FD) Rivers is an erratic player with a low floor despite his steady role as the Clippers starting SG, yet he should bounce back after struggling in a blowout loss to the Warriors. Longshot Dion Waiters – (5,800 DK/6,300 FD) Waiters went bonkers with Goran Dragic under the weather and Hassan Whiteside (knee) out on Monday, so he’ll be worth a look in GPP formats against the lowly Bulls. Small Forwards Ben Simmons – (8,800 DK/9,200 FD) Simmons is an easy choice as a bargain on DK in a really good matchup. The Hawks are coughing up the sixth-most APG (23.7) and the sixth-highest FG% (.515%) to the opposition this year. Simmons is a positionless wonder, who is creating for fellow budding superstar Joel Embiid and others on his way to averages of 18.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG and 7.7 APG this year and he’s produced 42-plus DK points in 5 consecutive appearances. Tyreke Evans – (5,300 DK/5,400 FD) Evans is healthier than he’s been in several years and he’s been producing with 52 points, 23 rebounds and 7 assists over his last 3 appearances, topping out at 30 minutes while dropping a double double in his last game. Now he faces the surprisingly fast-paced Magic and a couple of weak perimeter defenders in Evan Fournier and D.J. Augustin, plus the potential absence of Mike Conley (Achilles) could force him into a bigger role as a playmaker for Memphis. Potential Value T.J. Warren – (5,100 DK/5,100 FD) Warren is coming off a double double in a great matchup against the Nets and should see plenty of run at Washington tonight. Longshot Dillon Brooks – (3,900 DK/3,800 FD) The Grizzlies impressive rookie is worth a look as a risky value in a plus matchup against the fast-paced Magic. Power Forwards Kristaps Porzingis – (8,900 DK/9,700 FD) Coming off a career-high 38 points in a win over Denver, The Unicorn faces a Rockets team that’s giving up 42.4 RPG (28th in the NBA) and allowing opponents to shoot 40% from deep (27th in NBA) this year. He doesn’t have the same lofty floor as Anthony Davis, but obviously comes at a much cheaper price tag and could equal The Brow’s production if the Knicks stay competitive tonight. Porzingis has only had one dud all year in a blowout loss and he’s thriving now that the Knicks have rallied around veteran
Fuego Steve’s NBA Cheat Sheet – 10/31/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. These are my favorite plays at each position and maybe a value play or two. The players listed are in no particular order, as I am giving choices to help build your lineups. Point Guard Russell Westbrook – $11100 – Get him in if you can Reggie Jackson – $6300 Darren Collison – $6500 De’Aaron Fox – $5300 – favorite value Shooting Guard Devin Booker – $7200 – favorite overall if you can get him in your lineups Avery Bradley – $5700 Caris LeVert – $5200 Bogdan Bodanovic – $4500 – favorite value D’Angelo Russell – $7000 Small Forward The Greek Freak – $12300 – may fade him, going Westbrook if only one stud Paul George – $7800 – Decent second option at the position T.J. Warren – $5100 – favorite, factoring in price Brandon Ingram – $5600 Stanley Johnson – $4500 – favorite value Power Forward Tobias Harris – $6400 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – $5900 – favorite overall Trevor Booker – $4300 Larry Nance Jr. – $4800 Center Andre Drummond – $9200 – trying to squeeze him in if I can Alex Len – $4300 – favorite value Domantas Sabonis – $6000 – price is getting up there Willie Cauley-Stein – $5300 Check out today’s NBA Podcast already posted with myself and JaguarLou We will be in NBA chat from 6-7 to help with lineup questions or DM us on twitter
NBA Pocast – 10/31/17 – w JaguarLou and FuegoSteve
Scouting the NBA – 10/31/17
Plays of the Day Value: John Henson should see a significant uptick in playing time with Greg Monroe (calf) ruled out tonight. The former Tar Heel went for 12 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks over 28 minutes of run in Atlanta on Sunday and now fickle HC Jason Kidd may be forced to ride with the young lefty in a matchup against Steven Adams and the big Thunder frontcourt. Fade: Giannis Antetokounmpo is clearly a great option and an MVP candidate, but at over $12.5k, he doesn’t carry the necessary upside to justify destroying the rest of your lineups. At least on a short slate, it makes sense to take a more balanced approach. Point Guards Russell Westbrook – (11,200 DK/11,100 FD) With a league-high 57.4% assist rate, Westbrook is a much better candidate to triple double than the extremely pricey Giannis Antetokounmpo, which makes him the best per-dollar option tonight. He managed that statistical achievement over just 28 minutes of run in a blowout win at Chicago his last time out and has established a floor of 50 FPs or so even when he doesn’t shoot well. He should also hustle for some defensive stats against a Bucks team that’s giving up the second-most SPG (3) and an above average 46.98 FPPG to opposing PGs this season. Darren Collison – (6,000 DK/6,500 FD) The Pacers are playing with surprising pace and involving Collison as the maestro for that offense. His role is even more secure because of the injury to Myles Turner (concussion), who is ruled out tonight in addition to Domantas Sabonis (illness) being listed as questionable. That might force Indy to go small against a Kings team that disrespected Collison on his way out the door and will likely heighten his motivation ahead of tonight’s tilt. Potential Value Tyler Ulis – (4,000 DK/4,700 FD) Ulis is in a time share with starting PG Mike James but is starting to earn a larger role and draws a fantastic matchup tonight against the Nets. Longshot Spencer Dinwiddie – (4,900 DK/5,300 FD) Dinwiddie also gets a plus draw against the fast-paced Suns and he should see increased usage with D’Angelo Russell (knee) seemingly limited. Shooting Guards Devin Booker – (7,900 DK/7,200 FD) He’s coming off a 50-FP performance against a staunch Blazers defense and will now face a Nets team that ranks second in pace and gives up the most PPG (118.3) in the league thus far. This is clearly a game to target with a 230-point Over/Under and Booker’s been the man for the Suns with Eric Bledsoe banished to the end of the bench, posting a 28.2% usage rate along with a career-best (by far) 16.5% defensive rebounding rate and a .539% true shooting percentage. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – (4,800 DK/5,000 FD) Revenge is in the air this Halloween and KCP will look to burn his former team as the Pistons visit Staples Center. He was holding that backcourt defense together while logging around 35 MPG last year and will now get to face off with former practice-mate Stanley Johnson, who lacks experience and could get caught gambling on help defense to leave KCP open from long range. He’s been a reliable veteran presence for the Lakers and could see a slight uptick in playing time if Kyle Kuzma (hip) is unable to go tonight. Potential Value Avery Bradley – (5,700 DK/5,700 FD) Bradley is a similar option to KCP but his playing time is a bit more secure as part of a shorter Pistons rotation. Longshot Allen Crabbe – (4,100 DK/4,500 FD) Crabbe will have to shoot well to exceed value tonight, but he’s a classic streaky shooter who could blow up in a plus spot against the Suns. Small Forwards Khris Middleton – (6,900 DK/7,300 FD) Obviously you’d like to pay up for Giannis in what could be an exciting matchup against the Thunder, but his price tag makes it extremely difficult on a short slate. You could instead get exposure to the Bucks offense by using Middleton, who happens to be coming off a season-high 27-point gem with 9 assists and 7 rebounds to burn the Hawks in Atlanta. He’s finding his stroke from downtown and that was the strongest part of his offensive game before his knee injury, so he’ll have a chance to continue to exceed value if he hits those shots when the defense collapse on Antetokounmpo. Stanley Johnson – (4,300 DK/4,500 FD) He’s getting heavy run and the return of Reggie Bullock has done little to affect Johnson’s playing time. The Arizona product has produced useful fantasy lines in 3 consecutive appearances and he’s finding his outside shot as well, as he knocked down 3-of-5 three-point attempts while logging 41 minutes in a win at Golden State on Sunday. The Lakers perimeter defense is quite shoddy and athletes like Johnson have a great chance to pile up peripheral stats against a turnover-prone team that pushes the pace. Potential Value Bogdan Bogdanovic – (4,300 DK/4,500 FD) Funny name aside, Bogdan is better than older brother Bojan and is coming on strong for the Kings. Longshot T.J. Warren – (5,200 DK/5,100 FD) Warren is extremely inconsistent, but you can’t beat his matchup against the defenseless Nets. Power Forwards Carmelo Anthony – (7,100 DK/7,400 FD) While Paul George is struggling to adjust to a degree while playing alongside Westbrook, Melo is thriving with less playmaking responsibilities. He’s shooting 47% from the floor and 55% from inside the arc, which would be the best mark of his career. His three-point percentage should regress towards the mean and he’s established a great floor despite struggling a bit from downtown. Milwaukee is allowing opposing teams to shoot 38.6% from deep (24th in the NBA) and Melo posted stellar averages of 24 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 6.7 APG over 3 meetings with the Bucks last year. John Henson – (4,100
Jaguar Lou’s Cash Play’s – 10/30/17
PG Goran Dragic – 6,900 FD & 6,500 DK The Miami Heat are another team effect by injury tonight. With Hassan Whiteside injured, the Heat must continue to rely on Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, James Johnson and Josh Richardson. The Minnesota Timberwolves allow the most points in the league to opposing point guards, allowing 60.8 FD points/game so far, this season. Goran Dragic has a favorable matchup against Jeff Teague, a player I would not consider a good defender. Other Cash PG Option(s): Mike Conley & Damian Lillard SG James Harden – 11,000 FD & 11,200 DK After Harden threw up yet another poor outing on Saturday against the Memphis Grizzles, lock him in at hopefully low ownership for GPP and/or cash lineups! The Philadelphia 76ers allow 55.9 FD points per game to opposing shooting guards. This stat has the 76ers ranked 4th worst in the league vs. Shooting Guard and dead last amongst teams on tonight’s slate. If this game stays close Harden could be in store for a massive game…possibly at low ownership considering his recent struggles. Other Cash SG Option(s): E’Twaun Moore (GPP) SF Kevin Durant – 10,300 FD & 9,800 DK On another night where the Small Forward position is very weak, grab guaranteed points where you can. Kevin Durant has an unreal floor and always carries a potentially massive ceiling. I’m not recommending Durant because of a favorable matchup or really any statistical backing. There’s simply too big of a difference in the projected between Kevin Durant and your other, lower priced options. The Golden State Warriors are favored at 5.5 with a 222 over-under. Other Cash SF Option(s): Josh Richardson (GPP) & Robert Covington PF Ben Simmons – 9,300 FD & 9,200 DK Ben Simmons has been unbelievably consistent, so far, this season, averaging 43.8 FD points per game over his first six games. Although unconfirmed at the moment, the 76ers should be dealing with injury problems tonight with J.J Reddick and Joel Embid. Considering the possible injuries, Ben Simmons should have a massive usage/minute’s uptick. The 76ers are underdogs at +7 with a 215.5 over-under. Other Cash PF Option(s): LaMarcus Aldridge C Clint Capela – 7,500 FD & 6,700 DK If Nene is out, fire up Clint Capela against a 76ers team that cannot guard the Center position. It’s that simple. Joel Embid is questionable and on limited minutes. If Nene’s out Capela will be Houston’s only remaining center. I expected him to play well with Harden, I recommend playing them together. The sky’s the limit for Capela if Nene is out in a close game against a weak 76ers defense. The Rockets are favored at – 7 with a 215 over-under. Other Cash Center Option(s): DeAndre Jordan
Fuego Steve’s NBA Cheat Sheet – 10/30/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. These are my favorite plays at each position and maybe a value play or two. The players listed are in no particular order, as I am giving choices to help build your lineups. Point Guard Goran Dragic – $6900 Jeff Teague – $6500 Jrue Holiday – $7500 Patrick Beverley – $5900 T.J. McConnell – $4900 Shooting Guard James Harden – $11000 Andrew Wiggins – $6200 Terrence Ross – $3800 E’Twaun Moore – $4100 Klay Thompson – $6900 Tim Hardaway Jr. – $4300 Small Forward Jimmy Butler – $8000 Wilson Chandler – $4700 Kevin Durant – $10300 Jonathan Simmons – $4200 Robert Covington – $6400 Danilo Gallinari – $6200 Power Forward Paul Millsap – $6600 Ben Simmons – $9300 James Johnson – $6700 Aaron Gordon – $7600 LaMarcus Aldridge – $8700 Blake Griffin – $9500 Center Nikola Jokic – $8700 Clint Capela – $7500 Demarcus Cousins – $12000 DeAndre Jordon – $7800 Enes Kanter – $5600 Check out today’s NBA Podcast already posted with myself and JaguarLou We will be in NBA chat from 6-7 to help with lineup questions or DM us on twitter
NBA Podcast 10/30/17
Scouting the NBA – 10/30/17
Plays of the Day Value: Austin Rivers played 36 minutes in his last appearance for the Clippers and finally shot the ball well. He’ll serve as a solid value option if he can play through a minor injury in a fast-paced matchup against Golden State tonight. Fade: Steph Curry can score on anyone and is highly unlikely to be shut down, but Patrick Beverley is one of the best defenders out there and he has the Clippers top-ranked defense to back him now, rather than the sieve that was the rest of the Houston Rockets. Point Guards Kyrie Irving – (8,000 DK/8,200 FD) We’re starting to see more of a concerted effort from Kyrie to act like a true leader on the floor for Boston, and leading the Celtics to their first win over the Spurs in 12 tries would be a huge step forward. He worked very well in tandem with Al Horford in a win at Milwaukee on Thursday and followed up with another 24-point game in a tough matchup at Miami Saturday night. The Spurs have a great reputation defensively, but are clearly shorthanded with Kawhi Leonard (quad) and Tony Parker (thigh) out and Kyrie’s stepped up in big spots against elite opponents plenty of times before. Jarrett Jack – (4,300 DK/4,200 FD) The Knicks rolled a shorthanded Nets team on Friday night and then surprised everyone by beating the Cavs on Sunday. While Jack didn’t shoot particularly well, he paced the offense with 9 assists and logged 33 minutes along with the rest of a very productive starting lineup. Ramon Sessions has fallen out of the rotation and it’s hard to imagine HC Jeff Hornacek messing with what’s working after a two-game winning streak. Potential Value Yogi Ferrell – (4,000 DK/4,700 FD) Ferrell’s individual matchup is just fine against Ricky Rubio and his price point is quite tempting as a secure play with Seth Curry (leg) inactive. Longshot Kemba Walker – (7,700 DK/8,100 FD) Walker’s coming off a massive game and faces a Grizzlies defense that’s been surprisingly vulnerable against opposing PGs to open the year. Shooting Guards James Harden – (11,000 DK/11,200 FD) If Eric Gordon (illness) remains out, Harden will be a chalk play to an extent with a very high floor but he should be worth the money since he’s rocking a 38.1% usage rate while averaging 1.30 FPs per minute with both EG and Chris Paul (knee) off the floor this year. The Rockets offense simply crumbled in Memphis with Gordon out, yet now they face a far more vulnerable young team and they’ll look to ride The Beard to victory after edging the Sixers, 105-104, in Philly last week. DeMar DeRozan – (7,900 DK/8,300 FD) DeRozan’s in a solid price range for a player with a lofty floor, as he’s produced at least 41 DK points in 3 consecutive road games and will look to continue his run of productivity at Portland. The Blazers are sixth in the NBA in PPG (111.3) and this game has been assigned a solid 215-point Over/Under, so DDR is looking at a high-volume role in a potential shootout. He’s 36-for-71 (50.7%) from the field over his last two games and is one of the most consistent mid-range shooters in the league without question. Potential Value Austin Rivers – (4,900 DK/5,000 FD) Rivers is logging huge minutes out of the shorthanded Clippers backcourt and he’ll be needed in a fast-paced matchup against the Warriors tonight. Longshot Rodney Hood – (5,300 DK/5,200 FD) Hood is coming on for the Jazz after a slow start and faces a Mavericks team that’s had trouble defending the three-point line. Small Forwards Ben Simmons – (9,200 DK/9,300 FD) How can you fade a talented young player who is consistently flirting with a triple double, yet remains priced below $10k and well below the range of similarly consistent players. Simmons is averaging 9.5 RPG and 7.5 APG and his scoring is on the rise with 58 points on 25-for-43 (58%) FG shooting over his last three appearances. Tonight he faces the fast-paced Rockets after going for 14 points, 7 boards, 9 assists and 3 steals in a close loss to Houston last week and he should improve on those numbers while seeing heavy usage with Joel Embiid (hand) potentially limited. Joe Ingles – (5,200 DK/5,400 FD) Ingles is getting extra opportunities with Gordon Hayward no longer in a Jazz uniform and he’s thriving thus far. The Australian native has met or exceeded value in 5-of-6 appearances this year, with the sole exception coming against a staunch Clippers defense on a night where he felt sick and only logged 18 minutes. Since then he’s played 62 minutes over 2 games, producing 24 points with 6 steals and shooting 5-for-11 from downtown. Ingles is a sniper, who led the league in 3PT% for a lengthy period last year and faces a Mavs team that’s allowed the second-most 3PTM per game (11.9) in the NBA this season. Potential Value Trevor Ariza – (5,000 DK/5,100 FD) Ariza is logging heavy minutes for the Rockets and could see an expanded role if Gordon remains out tonight. Longshot Tyreke Evans – (4,900 DK/5,200 FD) Evans is a huge injury risk but he’s been healthy thus far to open the season and is routinely meeting or exceeding value. Power Forwards Kristaps Porzingis – (8,400 DK/8,900 FD) Aside from a weak line in a blowout loss to Boston, Porzingis has routinely exceeded value, including a dominant 32-point, 12-rebound performance in a win at Cleveland last night. That arguably makes him a better per-dollar option tonight than Anthony Davis, as he faces a Nuggets team that’s been mediocre defensively while giving up 102.5 PPG this season. More important than the matchup is the Knicks improved chemistry with a veteran PG running the show in Jack and other Tim Hardaway Jr. finally heating up from the outside
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet – Main Slate – 10/29/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. These are my favorite plays at each position and maybe a value play or two. Point Guard Kemba Walker – $8300 John Wall – $10100 Steph Curry – $9600 Jamal Murray – $4800 Shooting Guard Will Barton or Gary Harris – $5600 Klay Thompson – $7000 Terrence Ross – $3800 Avery Bradley – $5500 Small Forward Wilson Chandler – $4700 Kevin Durant – $10500 Tobias Harris – $6800 Lebron James – $11300 Power Forward Paul Millsap – $6800 Draymond Green – $7800 Trevor Booker – $4400 Otto Porter – $7600 Center Marcin Gortat – $6200 Nikola Jokic – $8700 Dwight Howard – $8000 Willie Cauley-Stein – $5900
Fuego Steve’s NBA Cheat Sheet – 10/28/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. These are my favorite plays at each position and maybe a value play or two. Point Guard Damian Lillard – $9300 Mike Conley – $7500 – Favorite overall Goran Dragic – $7000 Ricky Rubio – $8000 – Like versus the rookie Lonzo Ball Tyler Johnson – $4500 Mike James – $4400 – Favorite value Shooting Guard C.J. McCollum – $7700 – Favorite overall Rodney Hood – $5300 Devin Booker – $7000 Terry Rozier – $4200 – Favorite value Tyreke Evans – $4800 Small Forward T.J. Warren – $5200 Maurice Harkless – $4500 Paul George – $8300 – Favorite overall Lebron James – $11300 Joe Ingles – $5300 – Favorite value Power Forward Blake Griffin – $9700 James Johnson – $7400 Al-Farouq Aminu – $5800 – Favorite value Dirk Nowitzki – $5400 Ben Simmons – $9200 – price is getting up there Center Rudy Gobert – $9000 – Favorite overall DeMarcus Cousins – $12000 DeAndre Jordon – $8200 Alex Len – $4300 – Favorite value Marc Gasol – $9000