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Scouting the NBA 11/22/17

Plays of the Day Value: Juancho Hernangomez is looking at an increased role for the Nuggets with Paul Millsap (wrist) out indefinitely. He draws a plus matchup tonight against the Rockets and is close to the minimum price on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Fade: LeBron James draws a juicy matchup tonight against the fast-paced Nets, but the Cavs are clearly trying to dial back his minutes when possible and with Cleveland (-11) favored by double digits and Nets leading scorer D’Angelo Russell (knee) out, this might not be a close game down the stretch. Point Guards Russell Westbrook – (10,400 DK/10,000 FD) He’s always going to bring the energy and Westbrook should be even more motivated to face off with former running mate Kevin Durant and the Warriors, a team that plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA and allows 107.5 PPG this season. Westy averaged 27.3 PPG, 10 RPG and 9.5 APG over four meetings with Golden State last year despite getting his playing time chopped in a couple of blowouts and the Thunder (+6) should be competitive tonight. Mario Chalmers – (5,000 DK/5,600 FD) While he struggled at first in relief of the injured Mike Conley (Achilles), Chalmers has found his groove in recent games with 6 assists in four consecutive outings and a season-high 21 points on 7-of-12 FG shooting against Portland on Monday. Tonight he faces a Mavs team that gives up the third-most PPG (23.88) to opposing PGs with two sub-6 foot guards at that position in J.J. Barea and Yogi Ferrell. Potential Value Rajon Rondo – (4,800 DK/5,200 FD) Rondo’s minutes restriction appears to be gone, so he’s free to pile up assists while setting up the Pelicans superstar big men going forward. Longshot Eric Bledsoe – (6,500 DK/6,400 FD) Bledsoe returns to Phoenix to face his former team tonight and should play “at the margins” in the sense that he’ll either boom or bust in this spot. Shooting Guards James Harden – (11,300 DK/11,600 FD) You can roll with Russell Westbrook in tournaments tonight, but probably want to pay up for The Beard in cash games. His floor is so much higher than the rest of the field at SG because he’s actually playing PG, and Houston is likely to get into a shootout at home tonight against a 10-7 Nuggets team that leads the Northwest Conference. Harden’s been even more dynamic with averages of 35.3 PPG, 9.6 APG and 61.4 DK PPG over 7 home games this season and averaged 32.5 PPG and 10 APG over four meetings with Denver last season. Khris Middleton – (6,900 DK/6,900 FD) Fans of Narrative Street will gravitate towards Eric Bledsoe in his return to Phoenix and Giannis Antetokounmpo should be a popular expensive play as per usual tonight, giving Middleton appeal in tournaments as an under-the-radar component to the Bucks offense. He sees a slight rise in usage rate to 26.9 percent with John Henson off the floor this season and Milwaukee’s big man is expected to miss tonight’s contest, forcing Middleton and The Greek Freak to shift up in the lineup. Facing a Suns team that gives up the most PPG (115.9) in the NBA and ranks 26th in opponents 3PT shooting (.381%) certainly helps his chances to drop a nice shooting line with peripheral stats. Potential Value Gary Harris – (5,200 DK/5,800 FD) Harris remains one of the most reliable options on a solid Nuggets team. Longshot Donovan Mitchell – (6,600 DK/7,000 FD) Mitchell still deserves consideration at this price tag as he takes on a Bulls team that’s on the second half of a road B2B set. Small Forwards Harrison Barnes – (5,600 DK/6,700 FD) If you pay up at guard, you’re going to need to find some mid-tier options at this position and Barnes has a very solid floor relative to his price tag. The Mavericks leader in PPG (19.4) and RPG (7.0) is coming off an impressive 31-point performance against the Celtics top-rated defense, his 10th consecutive game scoring double-digit points. Memphis is down defensively and gives up the second-most RPG (9.33) to opposing SFs with James Ennis and rookie Dillon Brooks sharing time at the position, two players that gave Barnes little trouble when he dropped 37 points with 17 boards over two meetings with Memphis earlier this season. Denzel Valentine – (4,800 DK/5,100 FD) The Jazz defense is not where it’s been in past years and certainly is less formidable with Rudy Gobert (knee) inactive right now. Valentine and the young Bulls (+8.5) should be able to cover tonight against a team that’s lost 8 of its last 10 games and Chicago’s guards draw a favorable matchup against a Jazz team that ranks 28th in opponents 3PT shooting (.387%) this year. Valentine’s 15-for-27 from long range with 24 rebounds and 15 assists over his last four appearances as his playing time continues to increase for good reason. Potential Value Wesley Johnson – (3,800 DK/4,600 FD) Johnson continues to play big minutes with Danilo Gallinari (hip) inactive and Gallo doesn’t seem ready to return any time soon. Longshot T.J. Warren – (6,600 DK/7,500 FD) Warren might be the best option to target on the Suns side of the ball against an athletic Bucks team that somehow ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of defensive rating. Power Forwards Ben Simmons – (9,500 DK/10,200 FD) While Simmons’ assist numbers might dip with Joel Embiid a bit banged up, his scoring should continue to rise after he’s produced 50 points on 24-of-39 shooting over his last two appearances. His usage rate climbs to 30 percent (4.7% increase) with Embiid off the floor this season and The Process only managed 15 points over 27 minutes in a win over Utah on Monday. The Blazers have a very good defense that forces teams inside the arc however, giving up the eighth-most two-point attempts per game, which plays to

JaguarLou’s Cash Game Cheat Sheet – 11/20/17

JaguarLou’s NBA Cash Pick’s Cheat Sheet – 11/20/17 Point Guard Cash elite – Damian Lillard Cash mid-range – Darren Collison/ Reggie Jackson Risky Cash/GPP value play – Ricky Rubio Shooting Guard Cash elite – Bradley Beal Cash mid-range – C.J McCollum Risky Cash/GPP value play – J.R Smith/ Rodney Hood Small Forward Cash elite – Lebron James Cash mid-range – Paul George Risky Cash/GPP value play – Stanley Johnson Power Forward Cash elite – Anthony Davis & Ben Simmons (If Embid is OUT) Cash mid-range – Thad Young Risky Cash/GPP value play – Derrick Favors Center Cash elite – Nikola Jokic Cash mid-range – Marc Gasol / Nikoli Vucevic Risky Cash/GPP value play – Myles Turner

NBA Cheat Sheet 11/20/17

NBA Live at 5

Scouting The NBA – 11/20/17

Plays of the Day Value: Tim Frazier could become a no-brainer value play if John Wall (knee) misses another game. The journeyman PG scored just 6 points but added 8 rebounds and 8 assists in a loss to Toronto on Sunday and played 35 minutes along with the rest of the starters and averages 10.9 points, 8.1 assists and 4.5 rebounds per 36 minutes in his career. Fade: DeMarcus Cousins could be a very popular play with Anthony Davis (face) questionable tonight, but AD is definitely expected to suit up and the Pelicans could run more of their offense through him with Boogie slated to deal with solid defender Steven Adams. Point Guards Patrick Beverley – (5,700 DK/6,700 FD) He’s ready to return from a 5-game absence tonight and Beverley will draw a fantastic matchup against a Knicks team that gives up the fourth-most FPPG (49.48) and most APG (10.71) to opposing PGs this season. The Clippers need their veteran PG back with Austin Rivers and rookie Sindarius Thornwell struggling, while Lou Williams remains extremely streaky as a combo guard. Beverley is scoring a career-best 12.5 PPG with 2.1 3PTM per game at a 39.6 percent clip and he’s tough enough to return and play a full slate of minutes right away. Tim Frazier – (3,400 DK/3,100 FD) If John Wall (knee) sits out another game after resting his ailing joint on Sunday afternoon, Frazier would essentially become a must play at that ridiculously low price tag The journeyman PG scored just 6 points but added 8 rebounds and 8 assists in a loss to Toronto on Sunday and played 35 minutes along with the rest of the starters. He averages 10.9 points, 8.1 assists and 4.5 rebounds per 36 minutes in his career and draws a decent matchup against a Bucks team that gives up the tenth-most PPG (22.6) to opposing PGs this season. Potential Value Mario Chalmers – (4,700 DK/5,400 FD) Chalmers should continue to start at PG with Mike Conley (Achilles) out indefinitely. Longshot Ish Smith – (3,800 DK/4,000 FD) Smith is playing his way into a timeshare with Reggie Jackson and draws a juicy matchup against the Cavs tonight. Shooting Guards Rodney Hood – (5,600 DK/5,800 FD) The Jazz found something offensively while erupting for 125 points in a blowout win at Orlando on Saturday. Hood played a key role in that turnaround, as he dropped 31 points in that contest and is now 23-for-44 (52.2%) from downtown over his last five appearances. Matchups with Philly often produce DFS goodness and Hood is healthier now than he was when he scored 19 points against the Sixers on Nov 7. Jamal Murray – (5,400 DK/5,600 FD) If Murray can follow up Friday’s 31-point performance with another solid game tonight, he’ll likely grab a hold of a Nuggets PG that is up for grabs right now. The second-year man out of Kentucky has seen a rise in usage rate (24.3%) and true shooting (.550%) this year, while he’s caught fire over his last three appearances with 81 points on 32-of-58 (55%) FG shooting. Sacramento gives up the seventh-most APG (9.06) to opposing PGs, the second-most 3PTM per game (12.3) and is ranked 28th overall in defensive rating this year. Potential Value Dwyane Wade – (5,100 DK/6,200 FD) Wade is mixing a high ceiling with a decent floor as the third scoring option for the Cavs. Longshot Bradley Beal – (8,000 DK/7,900 FD) Beal would become a borderline must play if John Wall can’t go tonight. Small Forwards LeBron James – (11,300 DK/11,600 FD) LeBron and the Cavs tend to turn up in matchups against up-and-coming teams, especially those with designs on competing in the Eastern Conference. The King has been off since he logged a whopping 46 minutes against the Clippers on Friday, so he should be ready to carry the load once again for a flawed Cleveland team that needs him to provide heroics in each and every game with Kyrie Irving gone. He averaged 22 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 8.3 APG over three meetings with the Pistons last year and Detroit is giving up an above average 42.78 FPPG to opposing SFs this season. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – (4,100 DK/4,900 FD) Despite seeing much more playing time lately MKG has yet to flash much upside, but he does have a solid floor in a fast-paced contest against Minnesota. The athletic 6-foot-7 wing is coming off a rough offensive game against the elite Clippers defense, yet now he faces a Wolves team that ranks 25th in defensive rating and dead last in opponents FG shooting (.485%) this season. That bodes well for MKG, who scores most of his points in the paint and should be able to avoid Minnesota’s sole plus defender in Jimmy Butler, since he’ll likely guard the bigger offensive threat in Nic Batum. Potential Value Wesley Johnson – (3,900 DK/4,300 FD) Johnson’s been asked to be more aggressive offensively and he could exceed value once again if Danilo Gallinari (hip) remains inactive against the Knicks tonight. Longshot Robert Covington – (6,100 DK/6,800 FD) Covington has been red hot as an integral piece of the Sixers offense and faces a Jazz team that’s struggled to guard the three-point line this season. Power Forwards Ben Simmons – (9,200 DK/10,300 FD) Simmons went for 16 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists and 6 steals/blocks in a win at Utah two weeks ago and that was with reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert on the floor. He shot just 7-of-22 from the floor in that contest and might’ve been effected by Gobert’s presence in the paint, but the electric point forward is shooting 66 percent (28-for-42) from the floor with 63 points and 26 assists over his last three appearances, so he seems to be finding his shot at the pro level right in time for a plus matchup against an injury-plagued foe.

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Fuego Steve’s NBA GPP Plays 11/18/17

NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. The players listed are in no particular order, as I am giving choices to help build your lineups. However, I will try and mention the player I like best at each position. Point Guard Elfrid Payton – Favorite play of the night. Eric Bledsoe – Like the matchup versus Dennis Smith Jr. Damian Lillard – If you want to pay all the way up, I can get behind that. Mario Chalmers – Decent play if you want to punt the position. Stephen Curry – Think he and the Warriors bounce back tonight in a big way. Shooting Guard Donovan Mitchell – Like whether Ricky Rubio plays or not. Marcus Smart – If paying down, could do worse. James Harden – Memphis has been allowing a lot of points to the position last five games. I am not rostering him tonight though. Tyreke Evans – Always like the players versus Harden and he’s been hot. Klay Thompson – The 76ers have been bad versus SG all year and even more so the last five to ten games. Khris Middleton – Minutes have been huge, he is Robin to The Freak’s Batman Small Forward Robert Covington – Kind of gets lost in the shuffle of Simmons and Embid, but is still producing at a high level. Evan Fournier – Can shoot it outside or take it to the rim with no Gobert protecting it for the Jazz. Giannis Antetokunpo – He’s called the Greek Freak for a reason. Jonathan Simmons – Solid value play, limited ceiling. Jaylen Brown – Solid mid-priced play with upside. Power Forward Blake Griffin – Came through for us last night with 52 FD points. Look for another big game versus the Hornets who have no one to stop him. Ben Simmons – He went for 60 fantasy points the same night Embid went for 93. Who says teammates can’t hit their ceilings in the same game. Marcus Morris – cheaper option at the position. Dario Saric – Isn’t going to get you 40 points, but can easily hit 23 for 5X. Aaron Gordon – Hasn’t hit his ceiling game recently, maybe it comes tonight. Center Joel Embid – I recommended him the other night and all he did was score 93 Fanduel points. But talk about a price jump! He went from $9700 to $11000 on Fanduel. I guess the algorithms couldn’t ignore those 93 points. Not sure I am going to be paying this much for him. However, he obviously has the highest ceiling, and most likely be the highest scoring center tonight. Marc Gasol – My favorite center two days ago scored 71 and wasn’t even close to matching Embid. Don’t mind him again tonight versus Houston. Clint Capela – Tough matchup versus Gasol, but he has been very consistent. He has six straight games over 30 fantasy points including three over 40. Al Horford – Look for people to go back to Dwayne Dedmon on the other side of the ball. I like Horford much more. Nikola Vucevic – Could have big game versus Gobert-less Jazz. I am paying up at the position tonight, as there is no real value I like.

NBA Today 11/18/17

DFS Strategy – Contest Selection and Bankroll Management

DFS Strategy Advice – Contest Selection and Bankroll Management Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 By Fuego Steve Today I will be discussing contest selection and how to maximize and manage your bankroll. For your bankroll, set a number you are comfortable being able to invest in a given time period. You can do it yearly, monthly, per sports season, or weekly. Once you have that number, you can determine how much you should spend on one day or a weekend of NFL. Most people do not put more than 5 to 10% of their total bankroll in play. Let’s say you have a $1000 bankroll. You should only play up to $100 at a time. Next, you need to decide where am I going to be putting that money. In other words, which contests will you enter. Some people follow the 80/20 rule. This means you should put 80% of your play in cash games (head to heads, double ups, and 50/50s), and 20% in tournaments, known as GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). Using the $100 example means only $20 goes in to tournaments. This can be hard to do without good discipline. Even if you have the discipline to stick to this rule, which tournaments do you put the $20? One of the hardest things to do in DFS is not enter those big GPPs with five or six figure payouts to first place. I am not saying you can’t play those contests, but that is not where you are going to be making most of your money. Even if you have the ability and the means to max enter 150 lineups, the odds of winning are extremely small with 10,000 or 100,000 entrants. If you are like me, you may not want to grind out cash games and focus mainly on tournaments. I am going to show you the best way to maximize your allotted tournament bankroll. And if you really don’t want to play cash games at all, there are other options to be able to cash on a consistent basis. First, enter single-entry, 3-max and 5-max tournaments. DraftKings has some good 20 max GPPs as well, and Fanduel is starting to follow suit. No one can enter 50 or 150 lineups and therefore, it evens the playing field. In some of these contests you can still win thousands of dollars. Let’s do the simple math. If you put one entry in a 150-max tournament, you have 1/150 or 0.0067% of entries that are allowed. Even if you put just one entry in the 20-max, that number jumps to 1/20 or 0.05%. And if you put one entry in the 3-max, you have 1/3 or 33% of the max entries allowed. You can see the odds increase exponentially the lower you go. I suggest playing as many of these contests as you can before going after the big multi entry GPPs. I will enter all the single entries I can before putting entries in the 150-max contests. The 3-max tournaments are great if you like to do more than one lineup, but don’t have the money to play the 150-max. Second, enter tournaments with as little entrants as possible. In some cases, this means playing higher dollar tournaments if you can afford them. Instead of putting in 10 $3 lineups in a contest, put one lineup in a $25 GPP. For example, in the beginning of the MLB season I was entering a lot of lineups in the $3 to $4 Squeeze on Fanduel. Let’s say I played 50 lineups, I still must beat 16,850 entries to win it all. In addition, these contests are top heavy so if you don’t place in the top five for example, the payouts really drop. I decided to change my strategy and switched over to playing the $100 Homerun. These are normally 65-150 entry field tournaments, with only 2-4 max entries. I have had great success playing in these GPPs even when only entering one lineup. You can’t win $10,000, but you can win $1500-$2500 having to only beat 100 people, as opposed to 17,000. Even to win $1500 in the large field GPP, you still have to finish ahead of nearly 17,000 entrants as opposed to 100. You don’t need to spend $100 a contest either to make money. There are plenty of lower dollar, small entry field tournaments you can enter. Sticking with Fanduel, here are some good NFL contests they offer; The $5 Small Spike single entry has 470 entries. First place pays $250. The $10 Small Scramble single entry has 352 entries. First place pays out $400. The $25 Small Sweep single entry has only 94 entrants and pays out $400 to first place. These are some examples of single entry, lower field tournaments where you can still get 10x to 40x ROI (return on investment). This is much more appealing to some than just being able to double their money. Yet, it is closer to a cash game as you can’t win those big payouts. However, stick with these and you can start to build that bankroll. As your bankroll grows, your contest selection can change if you want. Here is an example from this week’s Primetime slate. My Primetime slate lineup was in contests for a total of $179. I put $100 in a small Blitz contest that paid out $800 to first. I entered $5, $10 and $25 small single entry contests. I then sprinkled in a couple $2, 10-max contests and played the $5 Small Rush. I tossed it in a $1 satellite to next week’s millionaire and just in case I hit the nuts, threw it in the $25 Bomb and $4 Showdown, which are multi entry contests. I came in 38th of 2,353 and 1,657th of 88,235 in the two big multi entry GPPS winning a total of $165. Not too bad, however, my total winnings off the $179 was $1,695. So where did I make my money? Obviously, from the

Jaguar Lou’s Cash Plays – 11/17/17

PG Jeff Teague – 6,700 FD & 6,800 DK Other Cash PG Option(s): Goran Dragic & Spencer Dinwiddie SG Donovan Mitchell– 6,400 FD & 6,500 DK Other Cash SG Option(s): Austin Rivers/Lou Williams (GPP) SF T.J Warren – 7,500 FD & 6,500 DK Other Cash SF Option(s): Lebron James **Highest upide** & Joe Ingles (GPP) PF Kristaps Porzingis – 9,000 FD & 9,000 DK Other Cash PF Option(s): LaMarcus Aldridge & Thad Young (GPP) C Jusuf Nurkic – 7,700 FD & 7,000 DK Other Cash Center Option(s): Andre Drummond **Highest upside** & Greg Monroe (GPP)

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