Scouting The NBA – 12/5/17
Plays of the Day Value: Al-Farouq Aminu is back from an ankle injury and should produce for as long as this game remains close. He’s played 22 and 26 minutes in his first games back from injury and he’s been cleared to play 30-plus minutes starting tonight. Fade: Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are fading into the background a bit as Russell Westbrook runs the offense for the Thunder. Neither forward is a great bet for a big game against a Utah team that’s more vulnerable on the perimeter than down low. Point Guard Russell Westbrook – (11,000 DK/10,700 FD) Westbrook is the highest floor play in this contest and could be the safest play on the slate if it stays close down the stretch. Rudy Gobert (knee) may not even suit up on the second half of a B2B set and Utah’s perimeter defense has struggled regardless, so Westy should be able to get into the lane and create for teammates or score as he did while producing a triple double in his last outing. Potential Value Tomas Satoransky – (4,100 DK/4,800 FD) Satoransky is still a solid value despite his weak performance as the Wizards were demolished in Utah last night. Longshot Kyle Lowry – (8,700 DK/8,500 FD) Lowry has the potential to blow up in a plus matchup against Phoenix. Shooting Guard Devin Booker – (8,000 DK/7,100 FD) After blowing up for 46 points to carry the Suns to a win last night, Booker will indeed be a popular play tonight. Yet he’s clearly the class of the position and might even make for a good pairing with DeMar DeRozan since both SGs will likely tire out from their offensive output and slow down defensively while guarding each other. Booker’s simply under priced right now as the main man on a fast-paced offense. Potential Value Alec Burks – (4,500 DK/4,800 FD) Burks will have a good floor-ceiling combo tonight if Rodney Hood (ankle) remains out. Longshot Donovan Mitchell – (7,200 DK/7,100 FD) If the Jazz keep things close tonight, Mitchell will likely have a huge game. Small Forward T.J. Warren – (6,400 DK/6,800 FD) Like his teammate Devin Booker, Warren is strangely under priced on both main DFS sites, especially when you consider that he just met value in a brutal matchup at Boston’s top-rated defense. He’s been a consistent scorer all season for the Suns and his playing time is definitely secure as a stretch four, who could give the Raptors issues with their defensive matchups. Potential Value Kelly Oubre Jr. – (4,900 DK/5,100 FD) Like Satoransky, Oubre Jr. is still worth a look as a value for as long as John Wall remains out. Power Forward Al-Farouq Aminu – (4,300 DK/4,600 FD) Aminu is back from an ankle injury and should produce for as long as this game remains close. He’s played 22 and 26 minutes in his first games back from injury and now has extended rest in which to prepare for an easy matchup against the struggling Wizards. He’s been cleared to play 30-plus minutes and Portland could use this potentially easy home win as an opportunity to get Aminu back into the swing of things. Potential Value Markieff Morris – (4,700 DK/4,800 FD) Morris needs to step up his scoring to keep the Wizards from getting embarrassed tonight. Longshot Serge Ibaka – (5,000 DK/5,200 FD) Ibaka is producing on an efficient per-minute basis right now and he faces a weak Suns defense tonight. Center Derrick Favors – (6,600 DK/7,000 FD) While Rudy Gobert (knee) played limited minutes last night, it would be surprising if he sees a full slate of minutes, or even suits up on the second half of a B2B set tonight. With Gobert potentially out, Favors will operate as the man in the middle for Utah and he’s seen increased production in that role. His lackluster line on Monday had something to do with Gobert’s return, but more to do with a blowout win, and tonight the Jazz will be underdogs in Oklahoma City. Potential Value Steven Adams – (5,900 DK/6,900 FD) Adams is thriving and should have a bigger game if Gobert can’t play or is limited. Longshot Jusuf Nurkic – (7,200 DK/7,400 FD) Nurkic probably has the most upside of any center on this short slate, although he’d need the Wizards to stay close in Portland to exceed value.
NBA LIVE AT 5
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet 12/5/17 – Updated
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. The players listed are in no particular order, as sometimes I am giving choices to help build your lineups at all price points. Point Guard Kyle Lowry Russell Westbrook – favorite Damian Lillard Value/Punt Plays – Ricky Rubio, Fred VanFleet Shooting Guard Devin Booker – favorite DeMar DeRozan CJ McCollum Value/Punt Plays – Alec Burks, Norman Powell Small Forward Paul George – favorite TJ Warren Otto Porter Value/Punt Plays – Evan Turner, Josh Jackson, CJ Miles Power Forward Derrick Favors Serge Ibaka – favorite to allow Westbrook Value/Punt Plays – Markieff Morris, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jerami Gramt, M. Chriss Center Steven Adams Jusef Nurkic Value/Punt Plays – Greg Monroe, Jonas Valanciunas, Marcin Gortat – really like Monroe if Chandler and Len are out
Jaguar Lou’s Cash Play’s – 12/5/17
Jaguar Lou's Cash Plays – 12/5/17 PG Kyle Lowry – 8,500 FD & 8,700 DK Kyle Lowry has the most favorable matchup out of any other point guard on tonight’s small three game slate. Let’s start with the DvP’s. The Phoenix Suns are allowing a league high 62.0 FD points over their last five games to opposing point guards. The Suns are also in the bottom 5 percentile in points allowed to opposing point guards over the course of the season at 50.1 allowed PPG. Kyle Lowry should have no problem with Tyler Ulis and should carry the team with DeRozan busy with the likes of Devin Booker. The Toronto Raptors are favored at -13.5 with a 224.5 over-under. Other GPP PG Option(s): Russell Westbrook & Damian Lillard SG Bradley Beal– 7,600 FD & 7,600 DK Bradley Beal faced the same Portland Trail Blazers just five games ago scoring 46.7 points over 35 minutes of play. Beal is still experiencing an uptick in his usage and overall offensive production due to John Wall’s injury. I don’t believe C.J McCollum can fully hault Bradley Beal’s offensive skills – the Washington Wizards most capable scorer. Beal’s recent game logs do scare me but no better time to get back on track than with a rematch against a Portland team who he performed great against just five games ago. The Washington Wizards are underdogs by 5.5 with a 203 over-under. Other GPP SG Option(s): Devin Booker (Upside GPP) SF Otto Porter – 7,000 FD & 6,900 DK The Portland Trail Blazers are currently allowing the most points to opposing small forwards allowing an averaging of 57.0 allowed PPG over their last five games. Porter has been playing better as of late, reaching 40 and 50-point games in two of his last five. I’m not quite sure if I will be rostering Beal and Porter together, injuries and confirmed lineups will dictate that. The Washington Wizards are underdogs by 5.5 with a 203 over-under. Other GPP SF Option(s): T.J Warren & Kelly Oubre Jr. (Hedge off Porter) PF Serge Ibaka – 5,200 FD & 5,000 DK The Phoenix Suns are allowing the most points in the league to opposing power forwards averaging 58.0 PPG over their last five. This is because of the sub-par defense by Marquese Chriss. Chriss will matchup against Serge Ibaka. I fully expect Serge Ibaka to take advantage of this matchup and I have NO problem playing him with Kyle Lowry. This is a different situation than the Porter/Beal conundrum. The Toronto Raptors are favored at -13.5 with a 224.5 over-under. Other GPP PF Option(s): Carmelo Anthony & Derrick Favors (GPP) C Jusuf Nurkic – 7,400 FD & 7,200 DK Jusuf Nurkic faces a defensively struggling Marcin Gortat in this matchup. We all know Nurkic’s upside, but these games only come in the right matchups, I believe facing Gortat is one of those matchup’s. Over their past five games, Marcin Gortat and the Washington Wizards have allowed 51.1 points to opposing Centers. This is bad enough, but when you compare this DvP stat to their season average of 37.2, it becomes pretty apartment something is wrong at the Center position. Jusuf Nukic should be able to take advantage of this matchup and put the team on his back, despite his inconsistent recent game logs. The Portland Trail Blazers are favored by 5.5 points in a 203 over-under. Other GPP Center Option(s): Steven Adams
NBA Live at 5
Jaguar Lou’s NBA Cheat Sheet – 12/4/17
Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 11/27/17 If you’re not max entering GPP tournaments, I strongly recommend only playing single entry and 3-5 person leagues. Point Guard Elite PG Play: Stephen Curry & Dennis Schroder (Safe Cash play) Mid-Range PG Play: Kris Dunn & Spencer Dinwiddie GPP Value/Punt PG play: Jamal Murray Shooting Guard Elite SG Play: Devin Booker & Victor Oladipo Mid-Range SG Play: Tyreke Evans GPP Value/Punt SG Play: J.R Smith Small Forward Elite SF Play: Kevin Durant Mid-Range SF Play: Courtney Lee GPP Value/Punt SF play: Bojan Bogdanovic Power Forward Elite PF Play: Ben Simmons Mid-Range PF Play: John Henson & Derrick Favors GPP Value/Punt PF Play: Michael Beasley & Ersan llyasova Center Elite C Play: Joel Embiid & DeMarcus Cousins Mid-Range C Play: Enes Kanter **Favorite Play** GPP Value/Punt C Play: Miles Plumlee
Scouting The NBA – 12/4/17
Plays of the Day Value: Mason Plumlee produced 12 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists over 31 minutes in a start against the Lakers. With The Joker ruled out Monday, Plumlee stands to meet or exceed value in another plus matchup, as the Mavericks allow the sixth-most APG (4.33) and eighth-most RPG (16.29) to opposing centers this year. Fade: LeBron James continues to dominate in another MVP-worthy campaign, but the Cavs (-9) should be even more heavily favored tonight against a Bulls team with the worst record in the NBA, so LBJ might take this game as an opportunity to get some rest down the stretch. Point Guards Jrue Holiday – (6,300 DK/6,700 FD) The popular and seemingly obvious play with Anothony Davis (groin) out is center DeMarcus Cousins, while Holiday might slip under the radar as an under priced guard with plenty of upside. His usage rate rises to 23.6 percent and he averages 0.53 points per minute with AD off the floor this season and Holiday’s been consistent regardless with double-digit points in 10 consecutive games. He’s facing a Warriors team tonight that’s on the second half of a B2B set and always plays with enough pace to help opposing players meet value whenever their games stay close. Tomas Satoransky – (4,100 DK/4,800 FD) Apparently, Tim Frazier’s stint as the fill-in starter with John Wall (knee) on the shelf will be short lived, as Satoransky has played circles around the initial starter. The 6-foot-7 guard combined for 29 points and 12 assists over 52 minutes of run in his last two appearances and draws a plus matchup tonight in Utah. The Jazz defense has been poor on the perimeter all year since adding Ricky Rubio and the absence of Rudy Gobert (knee) makes them far more vulnerable down low, potentially providing Satoransky with a clear lane to the basket in this matchup. Potential Value Jarrett Jack – (3,900 DK/4,800 FD) Jack continues to provide veteran leadership and solid production as the Knicks PG and could see an expanded role with the Knicks two leading scorers out tonight. Longshot Elfrid Payton – (6,000 DK/7,400 FD) Payton is a bit under priced now that he’s back from his hamstring issue and he could face backup PG Michael Carter-Williams if Kemba Walker (shoulder) can’t go. Shooting Guards Devin Booker – (7,800 DK/7,000 FD) The contest in Philly is clearly worth targeting with a 228-point over/under and Booker is clearly the player to target in a Suns uniform. The sharpshooter stayed hot with 38 points over 39 minutes against Boston’s top-rated defense on Sunday and he draws a plus matchup tonight against a Sixers team that gives up the eighth-most PPG (23.57) to opposing SGs this year. He’s also seemingly under priced on both main DFS sites. Dwyane Wade – (5,600 DK/6,500 FD) Wade remains a solid mid-tier option and he deserves strong consideration tonight as he faces his hometown Bulls. While he played for the franchise last year, the Chicago native should remain motivated to show out for friends and family and it certainly helps to face a rebuilding team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating this year. The veteran certainly isn’t pressing as the leader of the Cavs second unit and it’s led to proficient FG shooting (52.7%) over his last six appearances while scoring in double figures in each of those games. Potential Value Jamal Murray – (5,100 DK/5,600 FD) The Nuggets offense is shifting with Nikola Jokic (ankle) out and that contributed to Murray dropping 28 points in a win over the Lakers on Saturday. Longshot Donovan Mitchell – (6,900 DK/7,500 FD) Sleep on electric rookie Donovan Mitchell at your own risk, because he’s the real deal and remains the main source of offense for a struggling Jazz team. Small Forwards Kelly Oubre Jr. – (5,100 DK/4,900 FD) This is still a position at which you can save, especially if you target teams that are dealing with injuries to some of their star players. Oubre Jr. cooled off a bit with 8 points on 2-of-10 FG shooting in a win over Detroit but he should bounce back tonight against a Jazz team that ranks 23rd in opponents’ 3PT shooting (.375%) this season. Utah’s vulnerable on the wing and Oubre is a talented young scorer capable of slashing for hoops or knocking down open looks when the defense rotates towards Bradley Beal. Michael Beasley – (3,500 DK/5,000 FD) With Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (leg) out, the Knicks put their fate in the hands of the mercurial Michael Beasley, and he rewarded them by going 10-of-19 from the floor for 21 points in a close loss on Sunday. You have to like a volume shooter with no conscious in this price range, as Beasley’s sporting a 23.7 percent usage rate and averaging 0.45 points per minute with both The Unicorn and THJ off the floor this season. The Pacers give up the eighth-most PPG (108.3) and rank 28th in opponent’s 2PT shooting (.534%) this year, so Beasley will definitely be worth a look along with center Enes Kanter ($6.8k, $6.2k) in a plus matchup tonight with the Knicks desperate for scoring options. Potential Value Luke Babbitt – (4,000 DK/4,500 FD) Seemingly over his back issue, Babbitt is a good bet for production while playing a full slate of minutes against the porous Nets defense. Longshot David Bertans – (3,000 DK/3,500 FD) Bertans could serve as a true punt play if Kyle Anderson (knee) and Rudy Gay (heel) both remain out for the Spurs. Power Forwards Ben Simmons – (9,800 DK/10,500 FD) T.J. McConnell (shoulder) appears unlikely to return anytime soon from an AC joint sprain and that’s forced even more on Simmons’ plate. The likely Rookie of the Year after “red-shirting” last season, he averages 1.21 FPs per minute with McConnell of the floor and is rocking an impressive 31.7 percent assist arte
Fuego Steve’s NBA GPP Cheatsheet 12/2/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. The players listed are in no particular order, as sometimes I am giving choices to help build your lineups at all price points. Point Guard Damian Lillard – Highest upside of any PG on the slate. Eric Bledsoe – Like him slightly more than Lonzo Ball tonight. Value/Punt Plays – Rajon Rando, Jamal Murray, Reggie Jackson Shooting Guard Deepest position of the night Will Barton/Gary Harris – Think you can’t go wrong with either Nuggets shooting guards. Jrue Holiday – With no A.D. tonight, his usage should get an uptick. J.J. Redick – Definetly a GPP play only for me, but can get those 30+ point games. Value/Punt Plays – E’Twaun Moore, J.R. Smith Small Forward The Freak – Such a weak position tonight, feel like he or Lebron is a must play, but not fitting in my lineups if going Simmons and Cousins. Lebron James – See above. Brandon Ingram – The best lower option, could pair him with Robert Covington and fade the two big boys. Value/Punt Plays – Dillon Brooks, Juan Hernangomez, Stanley Johnson Power Forward Ben Simmons – Good spot versus the Pistons. Julius Randle – Like the value, like the upside. Tobias Harris – Due for one of his big games. Value/Punt Plays – Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh Center DeMarcus Cousins – No Davis tonight, should get huge usage. Andre Drummond – Over $1000 less expensive than Boogie or Embid. Kevin Love – Only really like if Marc Gasol is out. He’s questionable at this point. Value/Punt Plays – Mason Plumlee, Brook Lopez, but don’t love either.
Jaguar Lou’s All Day Cheat Sheet – 12/2/17
Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 11/27/17 If you’re not max entering GPP tournaments, I strongly recommend only playing single entry and 3-5 person leagues. Point Guard Elite PG Play: Kyrie Irving & Damian Lillard Mid-Range PG Play: Dennis Schroder GPP Value/Punt PG play: Spencer Dinwiddie & Jamal Murray Shooting Guard Elite SG Play: Will Barton (I usually use this spot for elite PRICED players, but I think Barton is a must play tonight) Mid-Range SG Play: Jaylen Brown & Tyreke Evans GPP Value/Punt SG Play: Avery Bradley Small Forward Elite SF Play: Giannis Antetokounmpo Mid-Range SF Play: Robert Covington GPP Value/Punt SF play: Juan Hernangomez Power Forward Elite PF Play: Ben Simmons Mid-Range PF Play: Kenneth Faried & Dario Saric GPP Value/Punt PF Play: Montrezl Harrell Center Elite C Play: DeMarcus Cousins Mid-Range C Play: Marc Gasol GPP Value/Punt C Play: Amir Johnson & Mason Plumlee (GPP Punt)
Jaguar Lou’s Cash Game Cheat Sheet – 12/1/2017
Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 12/1/17 Jaguar’s Mado If you’re not max entering GPP tournaments, I strongly recommend only playing single entry and 3-5 person leagues. Point Guard Elite PG Play: Stephen Curry Mid-Range PG Play: Kyle Lowry GPP Value/Punt PG play: Ricky Rubio Shooting Guard Elite SG Play: Victor Oladipo (if Turner is out otherwise fading the elite priced SG’s) Mid-Range SG Play: Justin Holiday GPP Value/Punt SG Play: Garret Temple/Buddy Heild Small Forward Elite SF Play: Paul George Mid-Range SF Play: Otto Porter GPP Value/Punt SF play: Michael Kidd – Gilchrist (Punt) Power Forward Elite PF Play: Aaron Gordon Mid-Range PF Play: Taj Gibson & James Johnson GPP Value/Punt PF Play: Markieff Morris Center Elite C Play: Nikola Vucevic Mid-Range C Play: Dwight Howard GPP Value/Punt C Play: Bam Adebayo