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The Dongers Club – Sat July 25th

SLATE INTRO Guys (and gals) — I will be honest with you.  I might be over-reacting to just one day but I am really not sure what to make of everything thus far.  I realize that statement sounds completely asinine

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The Dongers Club – Opening Day 2020

SLATE ISSUES Normally this is where I give you any issues on Weather or maybe talk about random things that are on my mind.  However, in 2020 we’re going to likely have frequent daily updates that are of note in

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The Dongers Club – July 23rd

SLATE ISSUES Normally this is where I give you any issues on Weather or maybe talk about random things that are on my mind.  However, in 2020 we’re going to likely have frequent daily updates that are of note in

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The Dongers Club – 2020 MLB Predictions

We’re Live! Now just 48 hours away from the first game of the season between the Yankees and the defending Champion Washington Nationals from Washington, D.C. as finally — yes, finally we are going to have Major League Baseball here

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Dongers Club 2020 – MLB Stadium Guide, Part 3

THE MONEY MAKERS These aren’t quite in the ELITE tier of stadiums, but what makes these great is that they can easily be as good on any given night and a lot of times will have lower Over/Unders which projects them to be fantastic second tier targets for DFS at lower ownership typically — and thus nice money makers. 10.  Minute Maid Park – Houston 2019 HR Ranking:  7th You have obviously seen a lot of this stadium the last few years as the Astros have vaulted to one of the top teams over the past 5 seasons and with all of the sign stealing accusations everyone and their brother did analysis it seems on how much the Astros players benefited from playing at home with the trash cans banging.  In short, they no doubt got help in key situations but in the first three innings of a random game in May?  Not as much.  The Astros have long been a team that when they’re playing on the road to me lock in that 9th inning AB advantage which good teams don’t get at home and they’re often going into other AL ballparks which are just BETTER.  Spots like Minnesota, Baltimore, New York, Seattle and formerly Texas always seemed like nice road Astros spots. But it’s not to say that I dont attack Minute Maid Park for offense and it obviously gets the elements benefits that a Texas stadium should in the summer.  However in 2020 we’re likely going to see it with the roof closed more often than not in August so that gets minimized.  I could rank it as low as 15, but with the really short dimensions to left field it winds up playing to well over the long haul.  Yes, you gotta get some elevation to get it out, but when you look up statcast metrics on balls that wound up as HR which shouldn’t have — you’ll always find Minute Maid Park. 2020 Visiting Team to focus on:   Oakland Athletics   9.  Great American Ballpark – Cincinnati 2019 HR Ranking:  8th Fantastic stadium if I do say so myself.  Why?  Well, for starters it’s always one of those darling DFS spots so I feel like we are looking at this stadium quite often.  But this ballpark has long been a stadium of major extremes.  On one hand, we have it as a park where Homer Bailey threw a no hitter, Luis Castillo has racked up a ton of strikeouts and Jake Arrieta also threw a no hitter.  There’s even been a few random lefties who have pulled rabbits out of their hats in this ballpark over the years as nice cheap bargain plays.  But make no mistake friends.  This is a hitters ballpark.  Why?  Look no further than the nickname which is Great American Smallpark.  Sitting outside of the Ohio River which runs along Cincinnati/Kentucky boarder and outside the right field wall this park has long been a hitters paradise.  The most HR hit here all time?  That would be Adam Dunn of course.  The best active hitter for this ballpark?  Ryan Braun, but more on him in a moment. The grass in this stadium is almost always on point, the announcers are some of the best even with Marty Brennamen retiring from calling Reds games.  This stadium has been home to some fairly EPIC moments in random middle of the week Baseball.   #3 on the list and this one is a hell of a #3.  The Pirates and Reds, seemingly tired of both sucking all season long got into what some women would call “An Entanglement”   #2…..  Two Words….   Scooter Gennett https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOu0mHBjxfE   #1 on the list.  How about a Brawl before the game ever begins? There is a random Twitter narrative about this stadium and it being a bombfest after a rain delay.  Given the river near by I can see that, but it’s not my narrative so you won’t hear me pushing it as such.  I’m also not going to debunk it because I can definitely see the merit.  But this stadium has a few random things that leap out to me which you should note Ryan Braun Eric Thames Derek Dietrich Bruce, Jay on a Thursday Day game Cincinnati Chili Sucks 2020 Player/Teams to watch:   Bauer every time he pitches and gives up 3 HR and strikes out 20.   8.  Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia 2019 HR Ranking:  7th Alright, let me play a little trivia game here for you. Of all current MLB Stadiums, only one player has in his career hit over .400 with a wOBA over .400, ISO over .200, with 10+ doubles, 10+ home runs in a visiting stadium. The stadium?  Citizens Bank Park. The player?  Ryan Braun I have been screaming this ever since I started writing articles back in 2016.  If you aren’t listening by now, then you hate free money when Braun visits Philly.  Unfortunately, COVID.  So we must wait another year if Braun returns to play in 2021 and here’s to hoping that if he does he signs with an NL East team. Philly, like many other mid-Atlantic and north ballparks gets a huge boost from not having to slug through April baseball when the weather is colder.  The batters eye here is good.  The park plays well for everyone (RH & LH) and the Phillies backend of their rotation could be their downfall if they don’t stay healthy up front.  In many ways this stadium is like Miller Park in that it’s right on that fringe of elite ballparks at times, plays well for all types of hitters and should be on our radar when we have a bad pitcher on the mound. Like Zack Whee… oh wait. 2020 Visiting Team to Monitor:  Marlins … they get a huge boost when they come here in terms of park size.   7.  Nationals Park – Washington 2019 Park Factor HR Ranking:   2nd No stadium has evolved more over the

Dongers Club 2020 – MLB Stadium Guide, Part 2

We continue with Part 2 of the MLB 2020 Park Projections with the two mid range rankings for this short season.  There are definitely a few stadiums in here who are severely impacted by the schedule this year and their rankings are going to shock you a little bit if you have followed me in the past.   20-16:  Not as good as you think Tier 20.  Chase Field – Arizona 2019 Park Factor HR Ranking:  20th We start right off with the biggest drop of any stadium and it has NOTHING to do with the humidor ladies and gentlemen.  The long love affair I have had with this stadium despite it being a giant warehouse and not that awesome visually is that when the roof is open and we let that Arizona air into the stadium the ball carries.  It’s a well documented, scientifically proven theory that even the COVID-19 scientists would say is a no brainer.  When the roof is open, you play the over and you play the game.  The other thing I always loved about this stadium was the runway of dirt between the pitchers mound and home plate.  An old school style ballpark characteristic that is now gone with their new turf (which really hurt offense more than the humidor).  That too is gone.  I say that too because I fully expect the roof to be CLOSED 99% of the games this season.  There’s absolutely no reason why they wont have the roof closed without fans.  One of the biggest benefits in the summers was when we could get intel that they would plan on opening the roof in the third inning because they wanted the fans to see the great views instead of the ugly inside of a COSTCO warehouse.  That’s gone.  No more fireworks after games causing the roof to open up.  Gone.  It sucks.  It just plain ole sucks. Add in that the Diamondbacks pitching staff is pretty good and they’ll see mostly good staffs here playing AL/NL West teams and we can basically drop this stadium down into the group that I feel is decent just not a spot to rush too or be contrarian with this season.  There is one good news.  We still have “The Pool”. It’s pool day at #DbacksSummerCamp! pic.twitter.com/FDsbhiu9ZG — Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) July 8, 2020   2020 Visiting Team to watch:  Texas Rangers (They get to visit in late September, which — maybe — if we are lucky we get the roof open for)   19.  Globe Life Field – Texas 2019 Park Factor HR Ranking:  N/A It’s very close between Texas and Arizona for which one I wanted to rank lower, but I’ll give a slight edge to Texas because the Seattle Mariners pitching staff will have to visit this new stadium.  Yes, this is a new stadium for those of you who have been living under a rock.  The Rangers, who once played in this beautiful Arlington Stadium with the worlds best jumbo-tron decided, ya know what, we need a new stadium because this really cool looking ballpark that screams Texas isn’t innovative enough.  Can we go get something else? Sure!  Here you go.  Lets copy the Houston Astros stadium design and move our team there.  Perfect, what should we call this awesome very un-creative ballpark?  Oh I dunno, what was the name of the old stadium? Globe Life Park Cool, lets call this new park ………………… Globe Life STADIUM. How the hell did the Rangers decide to name this park?   So let us recap the evolution of the Texas Rangers home stadiums…   They went from a god damn jumbotron the shape of Texas which is fucking awesome. To some weird ass center field with a shit ton of flags, giant billboards and cool architecture that just screams TEXAS ya’ll. To a fucking domed baseball stadium. You get an F, Texas Rangers.   New Stadiums = Pitchers Parks Indoors in Texas = Pitchers Park Hate it….   2020 Visiting Team to watch:  Nobody, screw this place.  Pitchers park.   18.  Dodger Stadium – LA Dodgers 2019 Park Factor HR Ranking:  9th I am a fan of Dodger stadium.  It’s old, has ugly seating and no longer has Vin Scully on the call.  But the view beyond center field is one of the best in the league so long as you ignore the parking lots.  The history of this stadium cannot be denied and every time I see it I hear Vin Scully in the background.  It’s also got some weird pull out right field where I swear there is a nice wind tunnel there allowing for it to benefit left handed hitters more.  Which is weird because visitors Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt (both RHB) have done fairly well here in L.A. over their NL West playing days.  But likely due to the Dodgers having some power lefties this stadium has seemed to play well for the home lefties.  Outside of that, it’s just a park that benefits from a home team with very good pitching and a home team with lots of HR power.  Should it skew your analysis into using players or not using them?  Not really, but day games can be pretty good offensively at times. 2020 Visiting Team to watch:  The Flying Arenado’s.     17.  Angels Stadium – LA Angels 2019 Park Factor HR Ranking:   11th We head up to Anaheim as the two L.A. stadiums come in very close to each other.  I have upgraded this stadium just because we have a ballpark with Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, some Mike Trout guy, Dylan Bundy and oh yeah — Juliooooooooooooooooooooooo Tehran.  So we can expect some homers here simply due to that.  This stadium has had a long history of the “marine” layer theory, which simply states that L.A. has a heavy marine layer over it and it impacts the Angels more than the Dodgers for some reason.  Night games specifically the air can cause things to

Dongers Club 2020 – Park Projection Tiers, Part 1

Welcome to The Dongers Club 2020 – Park Projection TiersThis is without question my favorite pre-season article to write each season.  I am a stadiums person when it comes to Baseball because unlike every other major pro team sport, Baseball is one where the stadium teams play in as home or visitors can benefit each individual differently.  Over the years I have used my own views on how stadiums will play based upon Weather, Match-Ups and Player Profiles to profit in DFS more than any other factor. Take your xWOBA, xFIP, xSCHNOZZLE stats and throw them out of the window if you aren’t factoring in the stadiums that the games are being played in. There are park factors that you can download off the internet and then there’s the ultimate breakdown which is the Dongers Club 2020 MLB Stadium Guide.  This is the article that in years past has explained to you things like Lefties in Cleveland, RH power hitters in Minnesota, why Atlanta is a righties park and last year gave you Lefties in PNC as the sneaky play of the season.  I challenge you to look beyond a table or spreadsheet of data showing which stadium ranks where.  Understand how they adapt to each player and then you too can play Mookie Betts the FIRST time he hits 3 homers in Camden Yards, or Ryan Braun every … single … time … he is in Citizens Bank Park. We now have an extremely sad and unique season in that there won’t be as many unique match-ups where we have certain teams/players going to non divisional ballparks where we can benefit from them being in a ballpark that caters to their style of play. You know, like the aforementioned Ryan Braun going to Citizen’s Bank Park which is essentially Cincinnati east for him, only he has a thing for extremely destroying Phillies pitching while there.  Or there’s the annual Houston Astros trip to Minnesota, the Seattle Mariners annual trip to Kansas City, those weird but fun to stack Oakland Athletics whenever they come to the east coast (but only for the first game of the series).  Yes, sadly we’ll have to wait until 2021 for some of those spots and we quite possibly won’t ever get to see Ryan Braun and his aging career hit as a road hitter in Philadelphia. Something that will happen this year which brings me laughter is how skewed the data will be for these “ballpark factors” that you will find out there on the internet.  Sure, a lot of my rankings end up aligning with the statistics which are compiled in the games being played.  Because if no lefty ever hit a home run in Cleveland than it certainly would never be a thing.  But does the data suddenly align that these stats rank #1 on leaderboards?  No.  They never will.  They won’t because the stats which you are viewing are always including factors with which we do not concern ourselves when it comes to DFS. Factors such as that random late September series with bad pitching or bad hitting all around.  That 13th inning game where who knows what guy is pitching and thus he gives up 5 runs in a late inning blowout.  Or how about which pitchers end up getting the home or road start in certain stadiums. Everyone knows Yankee Stadium is tiny.  Everyone knows the Yankees team hits a ton of home runs. Does everyone know that Yankee Stadium ranked below Tropicana Field in the mighty HR park factors for 2019? They’re not entirely pointless — just entirely useless if simply copy & paste’d.   So with that said, I bring you once again the 2020 MLB Ballpark Projections & Tiers. These are tiers which can be viewed in the same manner that you would look at doing tiers for drafting a seasonal draft at each position.  They’re going to take into account the obvious about stadiums like hey, Coors Field is a gazillion miles (unofficially) above sea level, the Rockies have some bad bullpen arms and that stadium is gonna produce a lot of offense.  But they’re also going to take into account the quality of the team who plays half their games in the stadium, who their likely opponents are this year and oh yeah, who is gonna come into that stadium and rake in a shortened season this year. These aren’t your typical @randomdoucheDFS person on Twitter’s Stadium Rankings.  They are unique to The Dongers Club and they are MY PROJECTIONS on which stadiums to focus on.  Things such as … The Chase Field Roof Lefties in Cleveland Lefties in Pittsburgh What type of hitter excels in Target Field? South Beach Theory Why Detroit is the real Windy City And this years break out stadium that everyone has been wrong about the past two years. just a few ‘Dongers Club’ stadium theories which have proven to be very profitable for DFS and betting….   Our biggest hit last year was Lefties in PNC Park, the obvious Camden Yards is a top stadium and for the first half of the season Target Field. I won’t unveil the #1 stadium until part three of this series, but it is NOT Coors Field and it is NOT Camden Yards.   So what is in store for 2020 Predictions? Let’s go with the first part of this three part series breaking down Stadiums 30-21 … aka, the snoozer club.   30-26:  JUST DONT BOTHER TIER This tier has arguably two of the nicest stadiums in the league for watching a game and then two absolute piles of shit ballparks for teams who should be fighting for a playoff berth and are great road teams offensively. 30.   Oracle Park – San Francisco 2019 HR Ranking:  30th We begin at the bottom of the list with the beauty that is AT&T, err Oracle Park in San Francisco — home of the Giants — and home of the first stadium with a new dimension configuration