2022 Fantasy Baseball: Baltimore Orioles Team Outlook
Player profiles, stats and analysis for Baltimore Orioles hitters and pitchers. Shawn Childs – as published on SI. The Orioles have been the cellar dwellers in the AL East over their last four full seasons (fourth over a 60-game schedule in 2020 with a 25-35 record). They won 54 games or fewer in 2018 (47-115), 2019 (54-108) and 2021 (52-110). Baltimore finished a combined 158 games out of first place over these three seasons. Last year, they finished last in the majors in ERA (5.84), which was more than a run-and-a-half higher than the league average. In essence, the Orioles pitching staff gave up two-plus runs a game to the Rays (3.67 ERA) and Yankees (3.74 ERA). In addition, Baltimore allowed the most home runs (258) in baseball. Their offense finished 26th in runs scored (659) with 195 home runs (17th) and 54 stolen bases (25th). On the positive side, the age of their average batter came in at 26.7 (youngest offensive team in the majors). The Orioles signed 2B Rougned Odor, C Jacob Nottingham, C Anthony Bemboom and SP Jordan Lyles in the offseason. The best player lost to free agency was 3B Maikel Franco, who signed with the Nationals. Baltimore has two elite prospects (C Adley Rutschman and SP Grayson Rodriguez) in their farm system. Both players had success at AA in 2021, pointing to their major league debuts coming sometime after May. Shortstop and third base have questionable options in the middle of January, but the Orioles may upgrade those positions via free agency after the lockout ends. The foundation of Baltimore’s offense is built around 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Trey Mancini, OF Cedric Mullins and OF Austin Hays. The starting rotation has one pitcher (John Means) of value. Many of their pitching prospects gained some major league experience in 2021, but no arm appeared ready to handle an entire season of starts in the majors. Without improvement in the foundation of their starting staff, the Orioles can’t make a run at even the .500 mark. Baltimore’s bullpen also had the worst ERA (5.70) in baseball while earning 28 wins, 34 losses and 26 saves. They allowed 109 home runs over 666.2 innings with 296 walks and 637 strikeouts. Every role in this bullpen will be in flux again in 2022. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins helped many fantasy owners win league titles in his first full season with Baltimore. He outperformed his five-year minor league resume (.265 over 2,013 at-bats with 318 runs, 51 home runs, 213 RBI and 110 stolen bases) by a wide margin in batting average (.291) and home runs (30). Before 2021, Mullins never hit more than 14 home runs in any season in the minors. His walk rate (8.7) fell in line with his success in the minors in 2019 (8.9). He lowered his strikeout rate to 18.5%, but it still came in higher than his minor league career (15.2). Mullins had a similar batting average at home (.294) and on the road (.287) while delivering 22 of his 30 home runs in Baltimore. His swing path came in balanced while setting a new top in his HR/FB rate (15.5). He appeared to square up more balls compared to a high number of infield flyouts over 204 at-bats with the Orioles in 2019 and 2020. Fantasy Outlook This draft season, Mullins has an early ADP of 29, making him a much more challenging player to roster. I respect his value in steals, and his approach should come in above the league average. However, he struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 11), and Mullins would need a lot to go right to repeat his output in power. With an entire season of at-bats, I’ll set his bar at .270 with 80 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI and a chance at 35-plus steals. OF Austin Hays Three games into 2021, Hays landed on the injured list for two weeks with a hamstring issue. The same injury cost him another 14 games in late May and early June. Over the first four months of the year, he hit .237 with 43 runs, 10 home runs and 36 RBI over 266 at-bats. Hays found his hitting stroke over his final 58 games (.279 over 222 at-bats with 30 runs, 12 home runs, 35 RBI). His average hit rate (1.800) fell in line with his 2018 and 2019 seasons, but he finished with a weaker contact batting average (.328). Hays handled himself well against lefties (.308 with 11 home runs and 30 RBI over 198 at-bats). His walk rate (5.3) remains in a weak area while posting a better than league average strikeout rate (20.2). Fantasy Outlook Early in his minor league career, Hays had the look of a 30-plus home run hitter with a high floor in batting average. Unfortunately, injuries have cost him development time at the major league level, but his bat did shine with runners on base (RBI rate – 17) in 2021. In addition, he’ll chip in with a handful of steals, and Baltimore should hit him between second and fifth in the batting order this year. Hays looks poised to push over 30 home runs with a sneaky ceiling in batting average. His ADP (207) puts him in buying range while still owning injury risk. 1B Ryan Mountcastle In his first full season with Baltimore, Mountcastle underachieved in batting average (.232) and contact batting average (.320). He hit .295 in his minor-league career over 2,078 at-bats with 70 home runs, 274 RBI and 27 stolen bases, with a much higher contact batting average (.375). He struggled over his 48 games in 2021 (.225 with four home runs, 20 RBI and three steals over 173 at-bats) due to a high strikeout rate (32.1). Mountcastle played well in June (.327/17/9/26), followed by a quiet July (.205/10/3/10). Despite missing 10 days in August, he finished the year with an uptick in power over his final 48 games (.262
The Dongers Club – Tue, August 18th
SLATE INTRO So much for me starting things off with “hey, we have 15 games and no 7 inning games and everything seems fine”. Royals and Reds game is PPD to tomorrow out of caution and that removes a good
The Dongers Club – Mon, August 17th
SLATE INTRO Update – Ignore everything I wrote below about this slate not having any site issues. FanDuel is absolutely clueless as they are releasing some update today to sync betting accounts for users in PA and NJ and it
The Dongers Club – Sun, August 16th
SLATE INTRO So here’s something you don’t see every day. It looks like DK might have hired FD people to run their site because they only went with 8 games on the MAIN slate today (I have a theory on
The Dongers Club – Sat, August 15th
SLATE INTRO I’ll spare you the entire rant I have about the incompetence we see daily with DK and FD and just say that FD at least made right by their users with full refunds due to site outages yesterday. They still have 100 other issues that are just inexcusable but at least they did right there. 7PM lock (one of my big gripes for today) with only a few games on it. WEATHER I just want to point out KC and MIN could have very easily played last night. That is all. Washington @ Baltimore – Large PPD Risk here. This slate sucks and off last night and all the issues I outlined above (which was only 50% of them) I am almost tempted to not even play this horrific slate of games. Fear not, I am playing… Walker Buehler Walker is VERY close to breaking out with a huge game and I have already looked ahead at his next projected start. We will be 100% on Buehler then. But today I don’t think he has a smash game, however he’ll be good relative to the rest of the arms going on this slate. James Paxton Boston has more dangerous hitters vs LHP for the first time in a while — but that’s mostly due to their team sucking offensively. Paxton had great velocity in his last start and so naturally he’ll probably die somewhere in the third inning tonight and go on the IL. But if he manages to not injure himself, he’s gotta be on your radar. Outside of the Box Asher Wojciechowski There’s not much in the way of getting weird tonight and lots of the Nationals should be chalky if the game plays. This is a leverage pivot where I don’t see Washington doing much outside of Soto/Thames being logical plays for obvious reasons. Guys I am not using Patrick Corbin … Like the Os to win. Cristian Javier … Too shaky. Oakland Athletics Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Khris Davis Park is playing better for homers this season and mid-day game should help that out as well. Gausman is coming off a really good start but the Athletics hammer split finger pitches, specifically Canha-Olson-Chapman and Piscotty. Like Khris Davis as a good value HR play. San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers San Diego has to be a top betting play today. They got shut down last night in what was a very snooze-fest type game but it’s Tatis-Machado-Myers who are mashing LHP this season and should have a great game in a park where you simply don’t see LHP do well. Houston Astros Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman Looks like at home they have their heads out of their behinds and are beating up on the lowly Mariners. Seattle has a terrible pen and Margevicius is a profile Houston has done well against. CATCHER Martin Maldanado Austin Hedges FIRST BASE Renato Nunez Yuli Gurriel SECOND BASE Jose Altuve Ketel Marte THIRD BASE Pay up here Matt Chapman Alex Bregman Manny Machado SHORTSTOP Pay up here as well… Trevor Story Fernando Tatis Jr. Gleyber Torress – Signs of life. Maybe he is only good without Stanton/Judge? OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore George Springer Mike Trout Joey Gallo Kole Calhoun Outfield – Tier 2 Yordan Alvarez Starling Marte Stephen Piscotty/Mark Canha Thomas Pham Outfield – Value Khris Davis Wil Myers BEST CONTEST REFRESHER These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds: 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it’s the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what’s the point? These type of contests usually aren’t as common and they’re a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They’re smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these. Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better. Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren’t about making money. Sorry. Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you’re in a slump, play one of these. Matt Chapman – 3B – Athletics – Chairman of the Dongers Club Trevor Story – SS Joey Gallo – OF Wil Myers – OF Jose Altuve – 2B George Springer – OF Renato Nunez – 1B Austin Hedges – C BONUS ……………….. Cody Bellinger – OF
The Dongers Club – Fri, August 14th
SLATE INTRO I consider yesterday a great success. You know why? We got the dumb Mookie 3 HR game out of the way on a spot where nobody cared because everyone in the world had a gazillion points. Even those
The Dongers Club – Thu, August 13th
SLATE INTRO Thursday’s are the worst. Today only has six games scheduled for all of MLB, largely due to the Cardinals being morons in regards to COVID but also because MLB built today in as a day off for everyone
The Dongers Club – Wed, August 12th
SLATE INTRO Mid week shorter slate with only 8 games on the docket tonight. For those who want the early slate action of Royals-Reds, Coors Field and the Blue Jays in Buffalo, go time travel back to 3PM and set
The Dongers Club – Tue, August 11th
SLATE INTRO Thank you Oakland. Thank you. The Athletics absolutely came through late last night unlike the Dodgers. So in today’s “Dongers Club Thought of the Day” we find that there’s a rumor going around about humidors being placed in Boston, Seattle and NY Mets stadiums for this season and it’s having an impact on those games. Nonsense. First off, it’s just a rumor and it’s spun off from an article which is wondering why hitting is down. As you know, we already have been ahead of this on the theories (even though I was wrong in saying the hitting would be coming out stronger than pitchers to start). Bullpens was one thing, but the other is the incredible BABIP drop we have seen and there was some good logic put into why that is happening from Sam Fuld of all people — who is now the “Director of Integrative Performance” for the Phillies. He had this to say about the impact of shifts and defensive alignments … Quite accurate. Coming into last night Jon Gray had an insane BABIP through his first two games compared to prior seasons and that like always is the case with BABIP started to adjust. I sense things will adjust in many places and we’re starting to see offense go up – although my personal opinion is that we don’t quite have an explosion DFS slate today. Keeping in line with the nugget of the day (and week really), here’s who in my mind is below and above expectations offensively so far this season. These are based off my expectations, which I trust more than anyone else’s. Teams exceeding expectations … Orioles — Specifically they have a .285 BABIP and only 21% K rate. Both will change negatively for them. Cubs Mets Teams below expectations … Indians — Until Lindor moves out of the 3 hole this will remain true. Blue Jays — About to sky rocket Diamondbacks — Also climbing very rapidly Twins — Mitch Garver having a massive back to earth season and Josh Donaldson not being healthy have hurt them. They’ll be fine though. I am also very heavily looking at pitchers who have so far exceeded expectations as guys who are about to get lit up and guys who are far below expectations as being good players to take chances on. P.S. BABIP is vastly overrated when viewed by itself but it’s relevant in the context of the quote from the article above so that is why I referenced it. WEATHER Humid but quiet and clear of any PPD risks So far through one game the roof opening in Texas most definitely has helped out hitters, but the ball still tends to die a little bit and the wind almost has no impact. Tonight features quite a few potential options, but what drives me nuts is the pricing on these guys is almost all identical. So you would think just take the best one and move on right? Well, not so easy…. Zack Wheeler It certainly feels like this is the first time all year we have been able to consider Wheeler in his new Phillies uniform. He has made two starts in the home ballpark (one as the road team) against the Marlins and the Yankees and he’s carried things over quite well in both games. The Orioles lineup has scattered annoying home runs in it at times, but despite Wheeler having very low K totals in his first two games, this is the spot to see a boost from him as the back end of their lineup should be SO-SO-SO-SO….. Max Scherzer I did not want to use him initially but seeing how I was not heavy on Coors Field tonight and didn’t see stacking heavy on other teams I don’t see why I don’t just play Max + Zack Wheeler on DK and then mix in some value bats (i.e. Tampa) elsewhere. The price difference isn’t that much either and Max going 6 innings and getting you 9 or 10 strikeouts isn’t asking for much. He’ll give you a high floor and we can focus then on mixing the CORE bats with value bats effectively to day. Max bounces back after that 1 inning game. He’s fine but won’t dominate with an insane score. Mike Minor Game log watchers will see that Mike Minor had two insane games against the Mariners last season, but their lineup has changed enough to throw some of that out. I still believe this ballpark is pitcher friendly even with the roof open and will go back here again without concern. Minor’s price on FD today is extremely cheap for the upside he brings. Outside of the Box Zac Gallen Nobody will have him and I think that’s a mistake. The Rockies have just seen about 5 straight games facing a LHP and now will get to face one of the best underappreciated arms in the NL West. Not only has he managed the Rockies in the past, Gallen has faced three teams this season and thrown 16 IP, allowed 5 ER and struck out 21 batters. Those three teams??? Padres, Dodgers and Astros. Not exactly cupcake lineups to walk through. Gallen’s proven enough and while he probably does give up a solo HR to Daniel Murphy, he will still pitch better than expectations given that he is in Coors tonight and Colorado can still produce favorable strikeout upside. Cheapest SP on the board worth using: Marco Gonzales Guys I am not using Ross Stripling … Seeing the same lineup two starts in a row. Fade for that reason to me. But logically he makes sense. Dylan Bundy … Sometimes you just have to pass on a game entirely and not provide a take on a player. That’s what I am doing here. No comment. There’s about half a dozen teams I could mention as oh hey, they probably do well, here and there
The Dongers Club – Mon, August 10th
SLATE INTRO Tough way to end the week with the pitching debacles and injuries that we had yesterday and I take full blame for not rolling out a GIFtastic article last Friday like I should have. That’s on me. One continuing piece of advice is to note how many teams are using DEEP bullpens right now and the hitters have no clue what these guys are throwing most of the time. The Indians/White Sox game is a great example and here’s a list of the White Sox bullpen arms who had pitched in the 5 days leading up to last nights game: That’s a crap ton of arms. So this idea that you shouldn’t have looked at at 7 inning only game yesterday gets a little diminished when you consider how random the bullpen variance is right now, no? At any rate, it will settle out at some point but we gotta remain focused on two things. Who is locked in right now and thus players we are seeing consistently get on base or have good At Bats. Who has no clue right now, but when they might be showing signs of breaking out. These are your daily hitting choices and you MUST be looking at things through the lens of an entire series. Honestly, that part is no different than any other season. Worst bullpens on this slate as of right now: Seattle San Diego (strength is in the back end, this should change though) SF Giants Texas NY Mets Best bullpens on this slate as of right now: Dodgers Athletics … Dominant Rockies Tampa Bay Milwaukee WEATHER Quiet and clear This is a very mediocre pitching slate today. Nobody who pops out as a clear cut must own but lots of guys who are kind of right down the middle in terms of being able to offer some value. A good evening to take a risk or two for those of you on DraftKings with your SP2. Kyle Gibson After getting destroyed early in his last game against Oakland he settled down and got through 6 solid innings with 9 strikeouts mid last week before his bullpen blew the game late. The Seattle Mariners come to down and they are near the bottom statistically in most categories when we sum things up. It is only 91 today which makes me wonder if they’ll ever open the roof down there. I doubt it. Well shit. They just opened the roof. All in fellas. All in. Let’s see how this plays out.. Dallas Keuchel Maybe Keuchel is just an AL guy? He’ll be getting a Detroit team who had two magical days in Pittsburgh and then cooled off as expected yesterday. Keuchel is good at getting a ton of ground balls and the Tigers will gladly give him all of those today. Never a huge strikeout pitcher he is coming off an impressive 8K performance against the Brewers last week and that will give some folks hope. Don’t fall into that trap, if you get 5K from him you’ll be happy, but 7 Innings is a strong possibility and he’s a fantastic DK play today sitting at $7800. Outside of the Box Logan Webb Houston obviously is struggling having just played the Athletics in Oakland, but with Springer banged up and still no Yordan Alvarez the luster that they have as an offense does have to settle in as losing a hit does it not? At only 6 foot tall, Logan Webb does a very good job of mixing up his pitches and that’s a major plus for the pitcher when the opponent doesn’t know you very well. I expect the Astros struggles to continue and will be playing the Giants to win this game as well. Really expect Logan Webb to have a nice sneaky performance and would look at him as a third option today. Guys I am not using Dustin May: Yeah, you go right ahead and use him against Tatis and company. Randy Dobnak: Sorry but he feels like his first name should be Larry. Anywho, the Brewers look Verrrrry tempting to pick on every day but this is not a game I would touch Dobnak in. The bats… The bats are waking up. We have two PRIME hitting spots tonight, mostly Coors Field but a couple others which leap out. These four teams are not ranked necessarily in order and I continue to promote spreading out ownership across 3 to 4 teams ( not 8 one offs) but each lineup should be about 3 teams as the core. Trust the rankings by position at the bottom for my preference at each spot. L.A. Dodgers Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger Mookie is feeling it quite well right now and it’s only a matter of time until Bellinger had a stud game. But when we see Luis Perdomo on the slate the players I love to use are RH bats who are sitting between two lefties. What would be an ideal lineup to me today is some form of L-R-L-R-L-R, but good ole Dave Roberts probably doesn’t do that. The reason for this with Perdomo is everyone see’s he struggles with getting hammered by LH bats, but after he gives up a double to one and has another on deck, he’ll be shitting his pants having flashbacks of Nolan Arenado beating the shit out of him while Justin Turner steps in and hammers a 2-0 slider out into the parking lot. Worth noting: The Padres bullpen is very good on paper but carries a high 5+ ERA coming into this game. Most of their strength is on the backend, so if it gets out of hand early they could punt it. Arizona Diamondbacks Starling Marte, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar The rule I have the most success when it comes to Coors Field is play 0 to 4 batters there and not more when we have a normal