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Tag: MLB Team Outlook

2022 Fantasy Baseball: Baltimore Orioles Team Outlook

Player profiles, stats and analysis for Baltimore Orioles hitters and pitchers. Shawn Childs – as published on SI. The Orioles have been the cellar dwellers in the AL East over their last four full seasons (fourth over a 60-game schedule in 2020 with a 25-35 record). They won 54 games or fewer in 2018 (47-115), 2019 (54-108) and 2021 (52-110). Baltimore finished a combined 158 games out of first place over these three seasons. Last year, they finished last in the majors in ERA (5.84), which was more than a run-and-a-half higher than the league average. In essence, the Orioles pitching staff gave up two-plus runs a game to the Rays (3.67 ERA) and Yankees (3.74 ERA). In addition, Baltimore allowed the most home runs (258) in baseball. Their offense finished 26th in runs scored (659) with 195 home runs (17th) and 54 stolen bases (25th). On the positive side, the age of their average batter came in at 26.7 (youngest offensive team in the majors). The Orioles signed 2B Rougned Odor, C Jacob Nottingham, C Anthony Bemboom and SP Jordan Lyles in the offseason. The best player lost to free agency was 3B Maikel Franco, who signed with the Nationals. Baltimore has two elite prospects (C Adley Rutschman and SP Grayson Rodriguez) in their farm system. Both players had success at AA in 2021, pointing to their major league debuts coming sometime after May. Shortstop and third base have questionable options in the middle of January, but the Orioles may upgrade those positions via free agency after the lockout ends. The foundation of Baltimore’s offense is built around 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Trey Mancini, OF Cedric Mullins and OF Austin Hays. The starting rotation has one pitcher (John Means) of value. Many of their pitching prospects gained some major league experience in 2021, but no arm appeared ready to handle an entire season of starts in the majors. Without improvement in the foundation of their starting staff, the Orioles can’t make a run at even the .500 mark. Baltimore’s bullpen also had the worst ERA (5.70) in baseball while earning 28 wins, 34 losses and 26 saves. They allowed 109 home runs over 666.2 innings with 296 walks and 637 strikeouts. Every role in this bullpen will be in flux again in 2022. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins helped many fantasy owners win league titles in his first full season with Baltimore. He outperformed his five-year minor league resume (.265 over 2,013 at-bats with 318 runs, 51 home runs, 213 RBI and 110 stolen bases) by a wide margin in batting average (.291) and home runs (30). Before 2021, Mullins never hit more than 14 home runs in any season in the minors. His walk rate (8.7) fell in line with his success in the minors in 2019 (8.9). He lowered his strikeout rate to 18.5%, but it still came in higher than his minor league career (15.2). Mullins had a similar batting average at home (.294) and on the road (.287) while delivering 22 of his 30 home runs in Baltimore. His swing path came in balanced while setting a new top in his HR/FB rate (15.5). He appeared to square up more balls compared to a high number of infield flyouts over 204 at-bats with the Orioles in 2019 and 2020. Fantasy Outlook This draft season, Mullins has an early ADP of 29, making him a much more challenging player to roster. I respect his value in steals, and his approach should come in above the league average. However, he struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 11), and Mullins would need a lot to go right to repeat his output in power. With an entire season of at-bats, I’ll set his bar at .270 with 80 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI and a chance at 35-plus steals. OF Austin Hays Three games into 2021, Hays landed on the injured list for two weeks with a hamstring issue. The same injury cost him another 14 games in late May and early June. Over the first four months of the year, he hit .237 with 43 runs, 10 home runs and 36 RBI over 266 at-bats. Hays found his hitting stroke over his final 58 games (.279 over 222 at-bats with 30 runs, 12 home runs, 35 RBI). His average hit rate (1.800) fell in line with his 2018 and 2019 seasons, but he finished with a weaker contact batting average (.328). Hays handled himself well against lefties (.308 with 11 home runs and 30 RBI over 198 at-bats). His walk rate (5.3) remains in a weak area while posting a better than league average strikeout rate (20.2). Fantasy Outlook Early in his minor league career, Hays had the look of a 30-plus home run hitter with a high floor in batting average. Unfortunately, injuries have cost him development time at the major league level, but his bat did shine with runners on base (RBI rate – 17) in 2021. In addition, he’ll chip in with a handful of steals, and Baltimore should hit him between second and fifth in the batting order this year. Hays looks poised to push over 30 home runs with a sneaky ceiling in batting average. His ADP (207) puts him in buying range while still owning injury risk. 1B Ryan Mountcastle In his first full season with Baltimore, Mountcastle underachieved in batting average (.232) and contact batting average (.320). He hit .295 in his minor-league career over 2,078 at-bats with 70 home runs, 274 RBI and 27 stolen bases, with a much higher contact batting average (.375). He struggled over his 48 games in 2021 (.225 with four home runs, 20 RBI and three steals over 173 at-bats) due to a high strikeout rate (32.1). Mountcastle played well in June (.327/17/9/26), followed by a quiet July (.205/10/3/10). Despite missing 10 days in August, he finished the year with an uptick in power over his final 48 games (.262