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Tag: MLB Outlooks

2023 Preview: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Up first, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Baltimore Orioles Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)  2023 Baltimore Orioles Since 1997, the Orioles have made the postseason in three years (2012, 2014, and 2016 while finishing fourth or fifth in their division 19 times. Last season, their pitching staff allowed 267 fewer runs than in 2021 (988), leading to the 18th-ranked ERA (3.97 – 4th in the AL East). Baltimore moved the fence back last year, which was part of their improvement in pitching. The Orioles’ last World Series win and appearance came in 1983. Unfortunately, the Orioles finished 20th in runs scored (674), 16th in home runs (171), and 20th in batting average (.236). In addition, their defense made 91 errors, placing them 20th in field percentage (.985).  In the offseason, Baltimore moved on from 2B Rougned Odor, OF Brett Phillips, 1B Jesus Aguilar, IF Chris Owings, and C Robinson Chirinos. They signed 2B Adam Frazier, SP Kyle Gibson, and RP Mychal Givens, plus took fliers on Jon Lester, Nomar Mazara, and Franchy Cordero. The future of this franchise lies in the development of C Adley Rutschman, SS Gunnar Henderson, 1B Ryan Mountcastle, and SP Grayson Rodriguez.  The early over/under total for wins for the Orioles is 75.5, pointing to a step back from the growth in 2022. The top of the batting line looks competitive while needing more power to compete with the best teams in baseball. A significant part of the improvement of Baltimore last season was their bullpen (42-29 with 46 saves and 3.49 ERA over 631 innings). This season, the Orioles need Grayson Rodriguez to hit the ground running if Baltimore wants to push higher in the AL East standings. In addition, they have some young developing arms that need more major-league experience. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins was a waiver-wire darling in 2021, helping many fantasy teams win league and overall championships. He finished 10th in FPGscore (6.36) for hitters.  Last year Mullins finished with almost the same opportunity in at-bats (602 and 608), but he failed to repeat in power despite a higher fly ball rate (43.6 – 41.1 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (7.7) was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (15.5) while failing in a range more in line with his previous career. Mullins saw a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.561 – 1.781 in 2021) and contact batting average (.326 – .367 in 2021). On the positive side, he continues to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate (18.8), with a step back in walks (7.0% – 8.7 in 2021).  Mullins lost his feel at the plate vs. left-handed pitching (.209/4/15 over 182 at-bats), and the change in dimensions in his home park showed in his stats (.243/10/39 over 296 at-bats – .294/22/37 over 306 at-bats). Despite his regression, he finished as the 23rd most valuable hitter based on FPGscore (5.33) last season.  Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, Mullins is the 33rd hitter drafted with an ADP of 48. I respect his speed while expecting repeated success in runs. However, I fear he could lose some at-bats vs. lefties while understanding the rules changes for shifts should lead to a slight rebound in batting average. I view him as a .265/85/20/60/30 player who falls in a draft range with some more dynamic hitters. C Adley Rutschman Baltimore drafted Rutschman in the first round in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. He came into college with a light-hitting swing. His power developed in 2019 (17 home runs over 185 at-bats) at Oregon State, along with his approach (76 walks and 38 strikeouts over 266 plate appearances). After missing development time in the 2020 Covid-19 season, Rutschman handled himself well at AA (.271 over 295 at-bats with 61 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI, and one steal). He finished with strength in his walk rate (15.4) while posting a better-than-major ready strikeout rate (15.9). Last year, Rutschman developed a triceps issue in his throwing arm, leading to him missing most of April. He hit .304 over 69 at-bats over three levels of the minors with 12 runs, three home runs, and 10 RBI. After a slow start over 126 at-bats with Baltimore (.206/15/3/9), Rutschman hit his stride over the final 79 games (.276 with 55 runs, 10 home runs, 33 RBI, and three steals over 272 at-bats), highlighted by a bump in production in September (.270/17/5/17 over 115 at-bats). His swing offered emptiness vs. left-handed pitching (.174/9/1/5 over 98 at-bats). He finished the year with an elite walk rate (13.8) and a favorable strikeout rate (18.3).  Rutschman hit 12 of his 13 home runs right of centerfield, but many of his hits went the other way.  Fantasy Outlook: Based on Rutschman’s average hit rate (1.752), he should have no problem smashing 25 home runs this season. His approach and success at the plate will be much improved in his sophomore year. There is no doubt that Baltimore will give plenty of at-bats at DH to help his fantasy value and production. Rutschman should lead all catchers in runs while chipping in with a handful of steals. In the NFBC in early January, he is the fourth catcher off the board with an ADP of 63. His next step in growth is solving lefties (.350/7/25 over 140 at-bats in 2021 in the minors). Rutschman is in my thoughts with a bright shade of green, but I will struggle to roster him as my second bat if I start my team with a pair of aces. With 525 at-bats, .280+ with 90+ runs, 25+ home runs,