The Cycle

After constructing some lineups, I’m finding myself falling into the Angels tonight. Most notably Bour/Trout/Simmons. I’m moving them ahead of St. Louis, especially with how bad Estrada is against Righties.    The Staff Richards – I absolutely love what this kid has in his arsenal. Richards already has arguably the best change up in the league, but he also added a nasty breaking ball in the offseason that he threw with a purpose in the spring. Righties do tend to hit him with a little bit more hard contact, so there is some risk with both Story and Arenado. He did boast a 24% k rate at home in 2018, so the strikeout potential is there. Being a fly ball pitcher,  Marlins Park should help keep those to just loud outs. He started one game against this Rockies team in Coors last year, and limited them to just 3 hits in 6 innings while striking out 8.  (Risk factor 5) Marquez – Burst onto the scene in the 2nd half of the year, racking up a ridiculous 35% k rate to righties and 28% overall on the road. Marquez was obviously better away from Coors giving up just a .201 average to hitters and a 2.95 era. From June on, Marquez held hitters to a .229 average while striking them out at a 31% clip. Miami’s lineup is pretty weak from the left side which is Marquez’ weakness, so this looks like a smash spot for him. (Risk factor 4) Lucchesi – A little bit better at home with a 3.99 era and 26.4% strikeout rate. Looch dominated lefties allowing just a 0.39% home run rate and a 29% strikeout rate. San Fran will probably throw 4 lefties out today, which bumps Looch even more. He’s also an extreme groundball pitcher against the same split with a 60.9% rate and a 25% hard contact.  (Risk factor 4) Flaherty – He has the ability to strike out double digit batters in any start. 26.8% k rate to lefties and 32.5% k rate to righties in 2018. He did give up 11 home runs in 83.1 innings on the road last year with 9 of those coming from the right side. Milwaukee is loaded with power, so there is some risk here but massive upside. On the road he limited hitters to a .196 average and a 30.2% k rate. I don’t think he’ll go deep in this game, pitch counts tends to creep up on him because he will walk a few.  (Risk factor 6)   High risk/High reward arm – Ray   The Bats  Boston – Boston away from home, early in the season AND facing a lefty?!!? Yes please  (Betts, Devers, JD, Nunez) Oakland – Power Power Power. Harvey was a little bit better in the 2nd half last year, but still gave up 27 home runs last year. Harvey struggles with his fastball giving up a .280 average and 15 home runs in 2018.  (Davis, Chapman, Profar, Morales (if he plays)  San Diego – Facing another lefty after a big let down yesterday. Holland gave up 19 homers to righties last year, along with a .255 average. Along with that were his. ridiculous 45.4% hard contact and 1.34 HR/9.  (Myers, Machado, Franmil)  Houston – Facing their former pitcher who throws a lot of fastballs, Springer Dinger again. His k rate was better to lefties at 36.3% and down to 22.4% to righties.  (Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Brantley) Seattle – They’re mashing pitching already this season, averaging 8.6 runs in their first 3 games. Eovaldi was hammered last year on the road, giving up a 5.14 era, 1.43 HR/9, and only a 19% k rate. He also gave up 2 homers and 3 earned runs in 5 innings last year to this team (while with Seattle).  (1-6 hitters)    Low Owned Stack – St. Louis 

MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – DraftKings Early Slate – 3/28

At last, baseball is finally back! Happy Opening Day. This article will cover the five-game DraftKings early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. eastern. You’ll see my top pitchers and bats consider building your lineups around, generally in cash and single entry contests. Buckle up, enjoy the show, and make sure to check out all of the great MLB content we’ll have today and ALL SEASON LONG!   Top Pitchers Jacob deGrom (NYM) Coming off a Cy Young season, deGrom was rewarded with a contract extension just the other day to stay with the Mets. Jake has pitched great in his career at Nationals Park striking out 62, walking 11, allowing 39 hits, and posting a 2.56 ERA in 52.2 innings spanning eight starts. In three starts against the Nats last season, deGrom went at least six innings in all three (20.1 total) and struck out 25 while allowing just 17 hits and four earned runs. His counterpart in Max Scherzer is obviously no slouch, but I’ll take the discount with deGrom.   Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) Tanaka should be the chalk pitcher on this slate in a home start against the Orioles who may lose more games than any other team in history this season. Tanaka always has the potential to get blown up at any given time against anyone, this much is true. However, he brings with him a ton of K upside against a lineup that, first of all, sucks, and second of all is full of strikeouts. The only issue I have here is that I would expect Gary Sanchez to be catching today. Over his career, Tanaka’s numbers are significantly worse throwing to Sanchez than anyone else that has caught him, but Baltimore is so weak that I can look past that blemish here. At $9,300, Tanaka is the fourth-highest priced pitcher on the slate in arguably the best matchup, and I use the term “arguably” very loosely.   Marcus Stroman (TOR) Stroman is the SP2 option I’m looking hard at in a home matchup against the Tigers. While Stroman had a rough go of it last season, I’m a believer in him and his stuff and ability to compete. He’s a ground ball machine (63 percent to lefties, 61 percent to righties in 2018). He didn’t allow an alarming amount of hard contact last season but for a guy that can’t rely on the strikeout, he has to limit his walks, something he had trouble doing last season. Stroman pitches well today and earns a win paying off his friendly $6,900 price tag.   Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Matt Carpenter (STL) Carpenter is expected to leadoff for the Cards today and is in line for a good matchup against Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin allowed a 39.3 percent hard contact rate along with a 35 percent fly-ball rate to lefties last season. In his career at Miller Park, a park that already caters to lefties, Carpenter is a .285 hitter (61-214) with 17 doubles and 10 home runs.   Bryce Harper (PHI) All offseason all we heard was where is Bryce Harper going to sign? The charade that is free agency came to an end finally when Harper signed with the Phils to stay in the N.L. East. Bryce has historically shown up on Opening Day with a .417 career average, a double, and three home runs over his career. Braves starter Julio Teheran suffered against lefties allowing a .320 wOBA, 38 percent hard contact rate, and 44 percent fly-ball rate. Oh, and to make matters worse in this spot for Teheran, Harper has owned him going 18-40 (.450) with three doubles, eight home runs, 11 walks, and just five strikeouts over his career.   Paul Goldschmidt (STL) Much like his new teammate, Carpenter, Godly has had a great deal of success in Miller Park. Over 23 games at the home of the Brewers, Goldy is a .420 hitter (37-102) with 10 doubles and eight home runs. He was able to hammer righties to the tune of a .384 wOBA, .230 ISO, and a 45 percent hard-hit rate. Outside of last season, when Goldy struggled early, he’s gotten off to hot starts and I expect him to do just that with his new team this season.   Justin Smoak (TOR) Smoak is a nice value bat to consider in a great matchup against Jordan Zimmermann. Smoak posted a .370 wOBA, .257 ISO, 40 percent hard-hit rate, and 47 percent fly ball rate against righties last season. Zimmermann struggled with lefties surrendering a .342 wOBA, 1.94 HR/9, a 40 percent fly ball rate, and a 17.4 HR/FB rate.   Quick Hits Favorite value bat: Marcell Ozuna (STL) Low owned home run: Travis Shaw (MIL) Weakest position on the slate (generally a position that I’ll look to save on): Catcher – Yasmani Grandal (MIL), Wilson Ramos (NYM), Yadier Molina (STL)   GOOD LUCK!!

PODCAST: MLB Preview & Opening Day DFS

Steve Renner (SDCHICKENS) is joined by special guest Matt WIse (Wiserman) to go through the MLB 2019 season predictions, bets and look at Opening Day DFS options.

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