Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.

It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.

Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.

This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.

Matchup 

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Dallas Cowboys	9	1	30	16	6
New York Giants	22	21	19	25	29

The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.

Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.

The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.

New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.

On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.

The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?

Dallas Offense 

Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…

 

How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?

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2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview

Tampa Bay entered the 2023 season with the fifth-lowest Super Bowl odds. However, Todd Bowles coached the Buccaneers to their second-consecutive NFC South title and an upset win in the playoffs in Philadelphia. After re-signing Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, the Bucs are running it back in 2024, which is great news for fantasy football fans.

Mayfield set career-high numbers in every notable passing category under the tutelage of Dave Canales. Canales parlayed that into a gig leading the division-rival Panthers. In his place, Bowles hired Liam Cohen from Kentucky. The change of play-callers is a major concern for Mayfield.

Another issue is relying on a player who posts career-best numbers in a contract year. Mayfield progressively got worse in his first five seasons before exploding in 2023. Rather than expecting a repeat of his QB11 finish, fantasy managers should view Mayfield as merely a modest QB2 to target in Superflex formats.

RB Rachaad White thrived in his second season. White posted overall RB4 numbers thanks to his receiving prowess. He ranked fourth among all running backs with 64 grabs and produced double-digit fantasy points in 15-of-19 games. The Bucs added Oregon RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round, which makes White’s volume share less certain.

Retaining Mike Evans was hugely important for Tampa. Evans (31 in August) posted his 10th-straight campaign with 1,000-plus receiving yards. His 13 touchdown grabs also tied for the league lead. Entering his 11th NFL season, Evans remains a consistent producer with an excellent rapport with his quarterback. View the veteran wideout as an excellent fantasy option in the third or fourth round.

Chris Godwin gave Tampa a pair of top-20 fantasy wide receivers. Godwin has topped 125 targets and 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. Yet, the 28-year-old veteran continues to be overlooked on draft day. He should once again bring a positive return on investment in 2024.

Trey Palmer hauled in 39-of-68 targets during his rookie year but will have to compete with talented third-round rookie wideout Jalen McMillan for WR3 duties. 55.4% of Palmer’s 2023 routes came from the slot, an area that McMillian is projected to play.

Cade Otton led all tight ends with a massive 96.5% snap share. However, he ranked 21st with a 12.2% target share and scored fewer than 10 PPR points in Tampa’s final nine regular-season games. Unless Cohen makes drastic changes to Tampa’s offensive philosophy, Otton is merely a low-upside fantasy TE2.

There are a lot of questions about Tampa’s ability to carry over their surprising success from last season. However, the Bucs boast a pair of solid wideouts and a young running back worth prioritizing in the early rounds.

Quarterbacks

QB BAKER MAYFIELD – BYE WEEK FILL-IN

Everything clicked for Mayfield in Tampa, resulting in his finest pro season and a lucrative new $100 million contract. Tampa also re-signed Mike Evans, which does well for the club’s 2024 prospects. However, Dave Canales is now in Carolina, which leaves the Bucs’ offense in the hands of a first-time offensive coordinator. Even in his career-rejuvenating 2023 showing, Mayfield only ranked 18th in fantasy points per game. The Browns, Panthers, and Rams have all let Mayfield walk and he was never the top choice for the Bucs. Last season was a good story but it would not be a surprise to see Mayfield regress. ADVICE: Likely to be overdrafted QB2…

 

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.

That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.

Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.

Matchup 

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26	15	29	22	26
Buffalo Bills	5	6	14	4	3

Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.

Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.

For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.

The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.

However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.

Tampa Bay Offense 

The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and…

How will Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bills game go?

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NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Vikings – 6

Over/Under: 45.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has a 31-38 record while gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt in his career. Last year, Tampa threw the ball 751 times but allowed only 22 sacks. Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly was the most significant factor, not the offensive line. The Bucs will throw the ball a lot less in 2023, with a spike in sacks and bad passing plays. Mike Evans hopes to extend his streak of at least 1,000 receiving yards to 10 seasons. Tampa hopes Rachaad White can make more explosive plays in his second year with the Bucs. Chirs Godwin capitalized on his time with Brady, leading to 202 catches for 2,126 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two years.

Minnesota had the best wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) in the land, based on fantasy ADPs all summer. The Vikings want to attack via the pass, and they added another dynamic wideout (Jordan Addison) in this draft class. The running back position is in transition, but Minnesota hopes Alexander Mattison can carry the RB1 load. T.J. Hockenson played the best ball of his career after arriving midseason to the Vikings. K.J. Osborn gives Kirk Cousins another dependable receiver to move the ball.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

• Over his last 18 starts. Mayfield passed for more than 235 yards in one game (11/28/2021 – 247/1). He has 18 touchdowns over this span when starting, with 18 interceptions and 57 sacks (525 pass attempts – 10.9%). Tom Brady threw the ball 1,452 times in 2021 and 2022, but he only was sacked 44 times (2.9%). The bottom line with this rant is that the Vikings could be a gold mine in Week 1 despite their poor outlook.
• The Vikings had the fifth-worst pass defense (22.02 FPPG), with nine teams passing for 300 yards (333/1, 418/2, 326/3, 330/1, 301/2, 382/2, 369/0, 330/3, and 334/1). Their defense finished with 35 sacks.
• Compared to 2022, the Vikings’ defense should be better in the secondary if Lewis Cine seizes a starting job and one of their young cornerbacks steps up to handle a starting gig. I see a below-par defensive line with three assets on the first two levels of their defense – Marcus Davenport, Danielle Hunter, and Jordan Hicks.
• As much as I expect Mayfield to fail over the long haul in 2023, Tampa will chase on the scoreboard, and he does have two proven wide receivers and a pass-catching running back.

Rachaad White

• The Bucs’ running backs had 338 catches for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns on 286 targets over the past two seasons. Again, their success was tied to Brady dumping the ball off and the elite number of pass attempts by Tampa Bay.
• White ranked 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues, gaining 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch. He did secure 50 of his 58 targets.
• Running backs had 90 catches for 667 yards and four touchdowns on 115 targets against Minnesota in 2022.
• Game flow should favor him in the passing game, and his salary is low enough that a touchdown added to his expected…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Kyle Trask

The Bucs added their possible future quarterback in the second round in 2021. He brings an NFL arm with an excellent rhythm in his passes. His weakness comes in his pocket presence and reads at the line of scrimmage and in the secondary. Trask lacked the intangibles needed to start in the NFL early in his career. A couple of years of holding a clipboard behind Tom Brady should treat him well and possibly fill in the missing links to his game.

In his final year at Florida, Trask passed for 4,283 yards and 43 touchdowns with minimal value on the ground (64/50/3). He finished his college career with strength in his completion rate (67.9) and yards per pass attempt (9.1).

The Buccaneers have him 10 snaps in 2022 (3-for-9 with 23 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: I don’t expect Trask to get drafted in many formats in July and August, but he may offer QB2 value early in the year if Tampa gives him the starting job. His ceiling is unknown, while Baker Mayfield has five years of mediocrity on his resume. I’ll have Trask as the winning quarterback in this offense.

Baker Mayfield

Health clearly efforted the throwing ability of Mayfield in 2021. Despite his issues, he hasn’t been a winning quarterback (29-30) over his four seasons with Cleveland. His completion rate (61.6) came in well below his college career (68.5) while falling to be a difference-maker in touchdowns (92 over 60 games). Mayfield tossed three touchdowns or more in nine of his 59 starts – none over his late 18 games with the Browns). After 2021, Mayfield had surgery on his left shoulder in January to repair a torn labrum. 

The switch to Carolina didn’t go well for Mayfield. Over his first five starts, he passed for 962 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions with a dismal completion rate (54.9). An ankle injury in mid-October led to two missed games. The Panthers had him on the field for two more matchups (155/2 and 196/0) over the next month before releasing him.

With Matthew Stafford out for the season, the Rams gave Mayfield five starts to end the year. Unfortunately, he made minimal strides (82-for-129 for 850 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions). Mayfield gained a career-low 6.5 yards per pass attempt on the year with 31 rushes for 89 yards and one touchdown. His value in the run game (189/660/6) has been minimal in his career.

Fantasy Outlook: Tampa has two veteran wideouts (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) with a serviceable WR3 and tight end. Their offensive line has plenty of questions, and Mayfield won’t get the ball out as quickly as Tom Brady. The Bucs will let their quarterback battle play out over the summer. Either way, I don’t see a winning fantasy play by this below-par NFL quarterback. Tampa should start its rebuilding process by giving Kyle Trask the starting gig.

Other Options: John Wolford

— Running Backs —

The Buccaneers’ offensive failure last year is highlighted by their running backs gaining only 3.7 yards per rush (4.6 in 2021 and 4.5 in 2020). Their backs gained short yards per catch (6.4, 6.4, and 6.5) in all three years, with Tom Brady behind center. In addition, Tampa’s backs scored 13 fewer touchdowns last season than in 2021 (22). On the positive side, their poor pass blocking led to Brady using his running backs more in the passing game (128/831/5) last year. They finished with 2,142 combined yards, nine touchdowns, and 128 catches (23.31 FPPG in PPR formats).

Rachaad White

After a limited role in 2020 in college (571 combined yards with six catches and eight catches on 50 touches), White flashed three-down ability (182/1,006/15 with 43 catches for 456 yards and one touchdown) the following year. He gained 5.5 yards per rush and 10.6 yards per catch.

Other than some concern with his pass protection, White brings an exciting three-down skill set. He runs with eyes up with a combination of patience and shimmy, helping him create space at the first level of defenses. When given daylight, White has enough speed to make big plays. He sells his routes well with plus hands.

In his rookie season, Tampa gave White 179 touches over 17 games, but he struggled to make big plays (3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch). White finished with 771 combined yards with three touchdowns and 50 catches, ranking him 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues. From Week 10 through the first week of the postseason (9 games), he scored double-digit fantasy points in six matchups (10.50, 19.90, 17.90, 11.70, 15.30, and 11.70). 

Fantasy Outlook: With Leonard Fournette no longer on the roster, White projects as the Buccaneers starting running back. On the downside, they’ll have a downgrade in quarterback and throw the ball 200 times less than in 2022 (751). I’m not a fan of Tampa’s offensive line, but he should be a better player this year. White ranked 24th in late June at the running back position in the high-stakes market. My early thought is 1,150 combined yards with four to six touchdowns and 50 catches…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BUCCANEERS IN 2023?

 

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: WR looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.

While there is plenty of strength of schedule analysis out there, FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.

Also, don’t forget to explore our previous 2023 strength of schedule analysis for quarterbacks and running backs. Now, let’s check out the 2023 fantasy football strength of schedule: WR.

The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.

 

Favorable Schedules

 

Chris Olave & Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – Playing six games in the NFC South certainly doesn’t hurt for the underrated New Orleans Saints receiving corps. QB Derek Carr should be a big improvement over Andy Dalton. Plus, Carr has a notable history of peppering his No. 1 wideout with targets. That should be a boon for sophomore Chris Olave, who already ranked 10th in the league with a 29.3% target rate in 2022.

Michael Thomas was also off to a fast start before succumbing to another season-ending injury. When healthy, Thomas remains an elite pass catcher. While his fantasy football ADP has started to creep up, Thomas remains an excellent value pick to target in drafts.

For Thomas and Olave, expect a fast start and finish. New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule for wide receivers in Weeks 1-5 and again from Weeks 11-15. Also…

WHAT OTHER WIDE RECEIVERS will be impacted by the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule?

To finish reading this in-depth schedule analysis

 

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