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2024 Miami Marlins Preview

2024 Miami Marlins Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well

2024 Miami Marlins Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.

 

This 2024 Miami Marlins Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

The Marlins haven’t scored more runs than they allowed since 2010 (719 to 717), but they made the postseason twice over the past four years. Miami has been in the league for 31 years, with four playoff berths, two leading to World Series titles (1997 and 2003). 

They ranked 16th in ERA (4.21) while having less value from their relievers (4.37 ERA – 21st). The Marlins’ bullpen had 45 wins (3rd), 27 losses, and 43 saves over 617.1 innings with 665 strikeouts. Miami scored only 666 runs (26th) with 166 home runs (22nd) and 633 RBIs (27th). Their baserunners stole 86 bags on 107 tries (80.4%). Surprisingly, they finished fifth in batting average (.259), thanks to Luis Arraez (.354).

In the offseason, the Marlins acquired 2B Vidal Brujan from Tampa for SS Erick Lara and P Andrew Lindsey. Cleveland shipped them C Christian Bethancourt for cash. Miami added 1B Trey Mancini as a non-roster invitee. They lost OF Jorge Soler, RP David Robertson, RP Matt Moore, and 2B Garrett Hampson to free agency.

The starting rotation has high upside at multiple pitching slots and injury risk. The Marlins will be without SP Sandy Alcantara for 2024 after having TJ surgery last October. SP Eury Perez is a future ace but needs to build up his innings count before becoming a trusted frontline fantasy starter. Miami has three lefties at the top of their bullpen depth chart, leaving a cloudy feel to their closing job.

Offensively, the Marlins will rank below the league average again in 2024. They don’t have one impact player with multiple starting jobs up for grabs this year. Ultimately, Miami needs more Jazz in their lineup, but that thought tends to be out of tune on too many days.

Starting Lineup

2B Luis Arraez

The Twins gave Arraez the best opportunity of his career in 2022, leading to career highs in at-bats (547), runs (88), home runs (8), and RBIs (49). He finished the season ranked 67th in FPGscore (0.66), thanks to his edge in batting average (.316 ~ +2.80 points gained in roto standings). He made strides to improve his swing path, highlighted by a career-high flyball rate (32.9) and a new top in his HR/FB rate (4.8). Arraez continues to have a weak average hit rate (1.329). He worked in the 2023 off-season with Nelson Cruz to improve his loft. 

Last year, Arraez hit .402 (.425 contact batting average) over his first 274 at-bats with 34 runs, three home runs, 37 RBIs, and one steal. Pitchers only struck him out 15 times over this span with 24 walks. Over his final 300 at-bats, he hit .310 (.331 contact batting average) with 37 runs, seven home runs, and 32 RBIs. Four of his home runs came over his final 10 games.  Arraez hit over .300 every month except August (.236/13/5/11 over 110 at-bats). 

His walk rate (5.7) was a career low while posting one of the lowest strikeout rates (5.5) in the modern era of baseball. Arraez only had 19 barrels (18 in 2022), with no change in his launch angle (11.5). His exit velocity (88.3) was a three-year low. The high number of balls in play led to a meager hard-hit rate (25.7). His HR/FB rate (6.5) was a career-best.

Fantasy Outlook: Arraez finished last year ranked FPGscore 52nd (1.56) for hitters with +4.80 coming from batting average. His ADP (166) in the high-stake market ranked him 15th at second base as the 101st player drafted. The Marlins have a below-par, creating weakness in runs and RBIs. His first-half run in contact batting average was an outlier, especially with no uptick in his exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

In addition, only 140 of his 540 balls in play reached the 95.0 mph mark (153 out of 504 in 2022). I don’t see a pop in home runs, but I know he will work hard over the winter to improve. Arraez is a unique fantasy option that hurts a team structure more than he helps in most team builds. Let’s go .325 with 75 runs, seven home runs, 60 RBIs, and three steals. I’m only interested in him at a discount, but I must follow his spring news in case his bat shows more power…

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2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview

2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview The conclusion of the football season means that fantasy fanatics can now prepare for spring training and the upcoming baseball season. Courtesy of Baseball America, NFBC Hall-of-Fame analyst Shawn Childs takes a deep dive into the 2024 Miami Marlins Pitching Preview. Starting Pitching SP Jesus Luzardo Over five seasons in the minors, Luzardo went 16-9 with a 3.01 ERA and 272 strikeouts over 236.1 innings. After being eased into 2020, Luzardo failed to live up to expectations over his nine starts (3.83 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 49.1 innings). He didn’t allow a run in four appearances (20.1 innings) while having one disaster showing (six runs and 11 baserunners over 3.1 innings). Luzardo lost his command (4.5 walks per nine) and confidence in 2021, resulting in 20 home runs over 95.1 innings. Batters beat him to the tune of a .280 batting average. He had an ERA higher than 5.25 every month. In 2022, he dominated in his first start (one run over five innings with 12 strikeouts). Luzardo battled his command (15 walks) over his next five matchups, leading to too many rough innings (4.50 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, and four home runs over 24 innings). His struggles were tied to a forearm issue that led to 11 weeks on the injured list. Luzardo reached ace status over his final 71.1 innings (3.03 ERA, 0.981 WHIP, 0.198 BAA, and 79 strikeouts). Last year, Luzardo gave the fantasy market a nice season despite moments of duress. Over five starts starting on May 21st, he allowed 18 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings, where his ERA (6.15) was well off the WHIP (1.101). Later in the year, his arm struggled to get batters out in four of seven matchups (24 runs, 54 baserunners, nine home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). Luzardo gave up 19 of his 22 home runs over 528 at-bats to righties, with a .248 batting average. In addition, he was a significant liability on the road (4.48 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and .276 BAA over 70.1 innings). His average fastball (96.8) was the best of his career. Luzardo had one dominating pitch (slider – .229 with 115 strikeouts over 210 at-bats), but it had less value against right-handed batters (.275 BAA). He gained an edge with his four-seamer (.253 BAA) and changeup (.245 BAA) with more success with a low-volume sinker (.275 BAA vs. lefties ~ .207 BAA). Fantasy Outlook: With a 32-start season on his resume, plus 200+ strikeouts and better command, Luzardo will be treated like a foundation SP2 in the high-stakes market based on his ADP (81) in early February.  On the downside, he had a jump of 75.2 innings from 2022 and questions of what happens on his down days. In five of his 13 road starts, Luzardo gave up two runs or fewer when pitching at least five innings. I don’t want to overlook his potential injury risk due to his forearm injury in 2022. I’m hoping for a great spring and a rise-up draft board to remove him from my thought process. He is trending closer to a 3.00 ERA with 225 strikeouts if Luzardo can pitch 190.0+ innings and better success away from home. SP Eury Perez Miami hooked a gem with the signing of Perez out of the Dominican Republic. His minor league career started at age 17 in 2021. Over 78.0 innings at A and High A, he posted a 1.96 ERA and 108 strikeouts. The following season, a lat injury cost him about five weeks of development at AA. When on the mound, Perez pitched at a high level over his first 61.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, .188 BAA, and 87 strikeouts. He tripped up over three appearances (13 runs, 27 baserunners, and three home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), leading to a trip to the injured list. His season ended with four shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Perez shined over his first six starts (2.32 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, .148 BAA, and 42 strikeouts) last year at AA before getting his call up to the majors. Other than a disastrous game on July 1st (six runs and seven baserunners over one-third of an inning), he handled himself well over 11 matchups in the majors (2.36 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, .208 BAA, and 61 strikeouts over 53.1 innings). Miami shut him down around the All-Star break for three weeks to conserve innings. Unfortunately, Perez ran out of gas over his 10 appearances between AA and the majors (4.74 ERA, eight home runs, 59 strikeouts over 43.2 innings). His average fastball (97.5) is already one of the best in the game in velocity. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.200 BAA), curveball (.114 BAA), and changeup (.103 BAA). Perez had the most struggles with his four-seamer (.287 BAA and 12 home runs over 181 at-bats). Fantasy Outlook: Perez will turn 21 on April 15th while already offering beast upside, along with an edge in size (6’8” and 220 lbs.). Last year, he pitched 128.0 innings, putting him on track to throw at least 160.0 innings. Home runs were a problem last year, and Perez must pitch better late in the season to help fantasy teams win league championships. His ADP (80) in NFBC in early January ranked him neck and neck with Jesus Luzardo. With a step up in command, he has the potential and pitches to post a sub-3.00 ERA with a run at 200 strikeouts. Don’t be shy, especially if he is discounted. SP Trevor Rogers In the 2017 June Amateur Draft, Miami drafted Rogers with the 13th overall pick. However, a left forearm injury pushed back his debut in the minors until late May in 2018. He struggled over 17 starts at A ball (5.82 ERA). Rogers looked worthy of his high draft selection in 2019 (2.90 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 136.1 innings) while seeing regression after his promotion from High A

2023 Preview: Miami Marlins

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Miami Marlins. Also, check

Shawn Childs is a 7-figure lifetime winner in high-stakes fantasy sports. His analytical and thoughtful approach will have you well-prepared on draft day.  He’s breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. Not all content is created equal. Get yours from a proven winner, Shawn Childs.

To get an idea of what you’ll be diving into, you can read either of the two unlocked outlooks here:

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2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

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