Manic Monday: Week 17
A clean slate is always a good thing, particularly in a year as challenging as 2021. While having the full-time opportunity with FullTime was certainly a highlight, 2021 also brought much that makes me grateful to turn the page to January. Losing my dad in June was something I was not prepared to accept could happen so quickly. I hate that he spent most of the final handful of months of his life in a rehab facility and I was only able to go see him once there. It was a good visit but also very hard. It was good that he was able to come home and even after another hospital scare, my siblings and I were able to gather and visit with him one final time on Father’s Day. There was a good atmosphere and plenty of Pink Floyd. I’m so thankful that he gave us the ok to have that gathering, even if none of us knew it would be the final one. After that, I had to attend another funeral in the family that was also unexpected. Then the final blow came on September 25 when the fantasy community was rocked by the loss of Mike Tagliere. Mike was truly one of the best football analysts that have ever plugged in a USB mic or keyboard, and a fine human that I grew very close to in real life. I’m quite certain that was the most challenging three-month period that I’ve ever dealt with but I’m also proud that I was able to embrace this job and used loss as inspiration to be better and do more. Despite ending on an up note, I was happy to ring in 2022 with people I love, doing what I love for a living, and looking forward to that clean slate. New Year’s Resolutions Tis the season for people to start complaining about all the new people at their local gym. Instead of trying to help or embracing these new guests that have the same hobby or simply want to improve their lives, so many people complain. That’s just today’s world, unfortunately. January is a fine time to reflect back on the year that just passed and vow to make improvements. I know I need to eat better, get out my chainsaw and find my backyard, and I may even start lifting again here as soon as my elbow completely heals. Of course, there truly is now off-season for football fanatics and soon here I’ll delve right into more college film and dynasty content. I may even try to expand my fantasy baseball knowledge but, admittedly, I could use a slight break. I wasn’t joking about my overgrown backyard. Plenty of our favorite football heroes should probably have New Year’s resolutions too. I wonder what Antonio Brown‘s would be? No doubt it will involve something selfish, but the good news is he’ll have plenty of time to start thinking about it when he has to book his own JetBlue flight home from New York. I hope he is able to get help, but I’m pretty sure we’ve seen the last of Brown in the league. The New York Giants had (-10) passing yards. I don’t even know where to start with that, but wishing Dave Gettleman the best in his next endeavor would be a good way to assure a fresh start. The Jaguars and Bears also need their owners to start off 2022 by blowing it all up and beginning anew. The jury is still out in Houston, but we’ll see here in a few months how Nick Caserio does with actual draft capital. And to all of my fellow fantasy fanatics, resolve to get better in 2022. Whether it’s at work, your health, or you want to spend even more effort expanding your football knowledge with plans on winning the 2022 Fantasy Football World Championship, we all need to have something to aspire to be better at this year. Here’s to hoping 2022 delivers for all of us. Where We Were Right Looking back on a big picture review, how about James Conner as my Comeback Player of the Year. In this preseason piece, I mentioned how well Conner had performed when healthy in Pittsburgh, and his short-yardage prowess. Throw in the fact that Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses had averaged 20 rising touchdowns per season plus Chase Edmonds’ lack of opportunities in that area and nabbing Conner as my feel-good story (and not to mention my RB3 everywhere) worked out great. Can you believe there was a big debate just a few months ago that the Bengals should take Penei Sewell to protect Joe Burrow rather than an elite play-maker like Ja’Marr Chase? Not only did I mock Chase to the Bengals mack in April, but I’ve also been tweeting about Chase since 2019. Lots of Ja’Marr Chase love today. Tweeted this back in August. Chase is gonna be a stud in the NFL https://t.co/YWgftxMKfB — #TagsStrong💪 (@JodySmithNFL) February 11, 2021 In our 2021 Rookie WR Outlook, Riley Bymaster penned that Chase was a combination of A.J. Brown and D.J. Moore. Anyone who drafted Chase year, and especially those who started him in Week 17 undoubtedly feel the love. Back to Week 17, our quarterback projections looked pretty good. Eight of our top-9 signal-callers on the slate finished as top-9 options, with only Jalen Hurts letting us down. Considering how big some of the performances were on Sunday, the timing was perfect. Where We Were Wrong Not everything last week was as accurate, unfortunately. Geroge Kittle only caught 1-of-2 targets against the lowly Texans and Dawson Knox was a complete dud, despite our lofty projections. Overall, tight end was rough this year, which is a reminder of why so many of us simply use weekly streamers rather than burn early draft capital on a position that tends to be so erratic. Running back also left a lot to be desired. Ronald Jones got hurt and was almost completely non-existent. Javonte Williams and Ezekiel Elliott also came up very small when they were needed most, despite being
Manic Monday Week 16
Merry Christmas and happy holidays, friends. One of the things that makes Thanksgiving stand out is the full day’s worth of NFL and fantasy action that gives football fans even more to look forward to. As luck would have it, we got another day of NFL action on Christmas this year, which makes it two in a row if I remember correctly. There was certainly plenty of memorable plays throughout the 2021 Xmas slate, but nothing quite like Alvin Kamara’s legendary six-score showing one year ago. Still, it was nice to have fantasy action on the day, but for some of us, it was challenging to prepare and take advantage of. Between preparing food, traveling, opening presents, cleaning up wrapping paper, and other dad duties, squeezing in that Week 16 research was challenging. Another potential distraction was A Christmas Story being on in the background. Granted, it’s annually on for 24 hours, but it’s always been the best Xmas movie. Planes, Trains, and Automobiles is the best holiday movie, by the way. But I used to love watching Ralphie eagerly anticipating getting that official Red Ryder, carbine action, 200-shot, range model air rifle. Watching it makes me miss being young when the entire kid calendar revolved around Christmas. I never did get my own BB gun but when I got the original Nintendo Entertainment Center back in 88, that was equally as impactful on me. A couple of years later the pink and white Mike McGill Powell & Peralta skateboard was also a game-changer. Once you’re a teenager and stop believing in Santa, Christmas just doesn’t mean as much and you never get it back. While being a parent and watching your own kids have those memories is in itself a treat, having fantasy football action to enjoy during this challenging year brought a little something extra to the 2021 holiday season. And it was very welcomed. Where We Were Right Back-up backs were a hit in both our projections and on the field. Justin Jackson, Ronald Jones, and Chase Edmonds were all inside out top-15 Week 16 projections and all finished as top-12 PPR running backs for the week. Jackson, in particular, won a ton of playoff matchups finishing as the overall RB1. Sometimes going against the grain pays off. Despite the solid matchups for George Kittle, we ranked Mark Andrews as our No. 1 tight end and that’s precisely what Andrews was. Andrews led the position with eight grabs, 125 receiving yards and secured his ninth touchdown of the season. Amon-Ra St. Brown ended up as our WR20 in PPR projection, which seemed alarmingly high at the time. Instead, it ended up not being high enough as St. Brown hauled in nine grabs for 91 yards, a touchdown, and chipped in another 11 rushing yards en route to a PPR WR6 finish on Sunday. Where We Were Wrong I’m still not exactly sure what happened to the Chargers. Justin Jackson came through in his spot start but Justin Herbert was our No 1 quarterback and was a big disappointment. Now Herbert accumulated over 300 passing yards against Houston’s awful defense but a big portion came in the fourth quarter when the Chargers were getting their doors blown off by the hapless Texans. That game was the biggest head-scratcher from the week. Denver sure didn’t take advantage of the Raiders’ questionable run defense. Javonte Williams (RB12) somewhat salvaged some fantasy value with a short-yardage TD but Melvin Gordon, our No. 21 running back, wound up putting up negative zero scrimmage yards on eight touches in a horrendous day for playoff lineups relying on RB2 value. Everyone missed on Tyreek Hill this week but Hill’s feeble 3.9-point showing on Sunday afternoon will go down as one of those painful memories for people that had to scramble all week only to get late word that Hill would be active. In retrospect, all of us would have probably been better off going with whoever we were going to play instead. Those kinds of terrible performances tend to linger for a long, long time. ENTER OUR WEEK 17 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: Draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Try to stack the team with players you think will do well in Week 16! The highest Week 17 Score wins! (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 17 Player Rankings to help. It’s a bestball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one! Just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard! Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize at the end of the season! The Grand Prize Winner (highest individual week of the season) gets to choose from the amazing prizes below. If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! MEMBER PERK! Fulltime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Drafts each month in our contest! DRAFT YOUR WEEK 17 TEAM and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Manic Monday: Week 15
One of the great things about sports is those last-minute, edge-of-your-seat wins. To see a game play out full of drama and to be capped off with a drama-filled win is what keeps us coming back for more. Week 15 was not like that. Instead, we had a week filled with inactive players, disappointing performances, and underwhelming scoring that brought an ultimately unsatisfying end to the 2021 season for half of fantasy football fans. Sunday was like a great movie that had a terrible ending. 2001: A Space Odyssey – Really ground-breaking film with plenty of iconic scenery and an amazing score still used by Ric Flair, but the ending? I guess we shouldn’t be shocked, it was Stanley Kubrick. It would not be his final film that left a lot to be desired…not by a long shot. Titanic – The entire film Rose makes a case for being a completely unlikeable person, then, just as we start to sympathize with her, it turns out she simply tosses the necklace into the water. She’d had that thing for like 80 years, it could have set up all her loved ones for life, and she selfishly kept it a secret and throws it away? The Big Lebowski – I have to be honest here, this is one of the worst movies I’ve ever suffered through, and, to this day, I have no clue how it ended. But going by the rest of this abomination, I’m just assuming it totally sucked. Putting in the time to do something you love can be ruined by just a fraction of the commitment if it comes at the very end. Unfortunately, fantasy football often turns out that way, and Week 15 is going to leave some bitter feelings for quite some time. It must be (insert anyone else)’s fault So you made some bad decisions in Week 15? We all did. Despite being the No. 1 scoring team in my division in my longtime home league, I didn’t even get into the playoffs. And I know exactly whose fault it was. See, my job is to gather predictive data, interpret the most likely outcome, and offer assistance to you fine people. And I take that job very seriously. I should, I’m extremely fortunate to have it. But when I read comments blaming me, suggesting I should have known ridiculously random plays or that you would be better than me at my job, it gets pretty annoying. I always feel terrible if I give the wrong advice. You don’t tell me about it. None of us who do this for a living are right all the time. In fact, we’re fortunate if we end a season with a winning record of suggesting which random WR4 will have more yardage than some other guy who wasn’t even drafted four months ago. We always try out best to think of every possible outcome and suggest the moves we would make in a similar situation. But when we’re wrong, understand something. I didn’t log into your fantasy account and hijack your roster to submit all the wrong guys. You did that. Ultimately, the person that hits “submit lineup” is responsible for how things play out, whether you got good advice or not. That’s the downfall of this gig- you take all the credit when things go as expected, then want to blame somebody else when things go badly- after all, it couldn’t possibly be your fault, right? We’re all fortunate to be able to expend time or resources on something like fantasy football. The up and down swings are what make it so much fun. Just know I try my best to dispense the proper advice and hate when I miss, especially in a critical playoff week. Now, can we talk about how Cam Newton can be so bad but somehow enter the afternoon games as the overall QB2? Where We Were Right Brandin Cooks was our WR16 in PPR scoring and Cooks came through with a huge game in Jacksonville. Despite the rainy conditions, Cooks accounted for nearly half of Houston’s passing yards, posting a nifty 7/102/2 line to enter Monday as the No. 2 overall wideout. Despite the lack of volume and Mac Jones‘ struggles on the road, we boosted Hunter Henry up into our top-10 this week due to Indy’s struggles defending tight ends. Henry came through with a pair of scores and a top-3 showing on what was ultimately a big week for the position. The Baltimore secondary has been decimated by injuries and vulnerable to deep balls, which caused us to boost Marquez Valdes-Scantling into our top-30 this week. MVS exceeded that, hauling in 5-of-7 targets for 98 yards and a score en route to a top-10 fantasy showing. Carson Wentz was an easy fade this week against the Patriots. Although the Colts managed to get the victory, Wentz only completed five passes and threw for 57 yards. The QB position was so erratic on Sunday that we have to take any small victory that we can. Where We Were Wrong Entire teams put up disastrous performances right when we needed them most. While the Steelers, Cardinals, Titans, and Broncos get a lot of blame for no-showing this week, nobody gets more condemnation than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting shut out at home. Not only was Tom Brady awful, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin also got hurt and could miss the rest of the fantasy season. What a s***show that was. Brandon Aiyuk had really started coming on strong, scoring a touchdown or surpassing 50 receiving yards in five of his previous six outings before meeting up with an underrated Atlanta secondary that held Aiyuk to his lowest output since Week 7. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins also were ranked similarly and had awful performances. After being activated from the reserve/COVID list, we thought Myles Gaskin would post solid RB2 numbers against the feeble Jets, so Gaskin was RB25. We were half right, as Miami did, in fact, run all over New York,
Manic Monday: Week 14
“It’s just a game…” Any avid sports fan has likely heard that. Probably every weekend. People who aren’t really sports fans, or who have to tolerate life with an obsessive one, just don’t, and likely will never get it. They just don’t understand the pain, or how hard we fanatics take things. The truth is, we’re justified to act upset and let things bother us. Several clinical studies have shown that there are extreme short- and long-term effects both mentally and physically and that the pain that avid sports fans feel can cause severe anxiety and unhealthy stress. I’m not a doctor, but I will opine that fantasy football losses are some of the worst. Not only do many people likely have money on the line, but fantasy sports actually allow you to have a say in the outcome, instead of just being a victim watching the game on TV. By doing your own research and putting in your own lineup, you have a say in how your team does, and the consequences for a good decision double the positive vibes. And when you doubt yourself, make an idiotic last-second lineup substitution that blows up, or leave a huge performance on the bench, those kinds of decisions can linger for weeks. In some cases, even years. Trust me, I know. I’ve been doing this for 30 seasons- I’ve cost myself championships by “being cute” more times than I care to remember, and I’m still plenty bitter at Kordell Stewart and Natrone Means. I’m not going to tell you to R-E-L-A-X or to take a step back. These are the playoffs, and this is what we’ve been working hard for since last season ended. You’re justified to take things seriously. Life is short, enjoy the time you have. And count yourself fortunate that you’re in a position to be passionate about something. Even if your partner or family doesn’t get it. Bye Byes The vast majority of fantasy leagues are 12-team formats with the playoffs now running from Weeks 15-17. In the past, we tried to avoid what was often a meaningless finale in Week 17 but now with an expanded schedule, it’s Week 18 that we’d like to avoid. That puts most fantasy championships now into Week 17 but some extremely large leagues have to utilize a 4-week postseason window, so Week 14 was the opening round in some leagues, including a couple that I am in. And your reward for reaching the playoffs- you can’t start the MVP. Yep, the majority of people that were fortunate enough to draft Jonathan Taylor probably made the tournament only to have Taylor, Jalen Hurts, or Michael Pittman unavailable due to a ridiculously late Week 14 bye. It makes no sense to have byes so late into the season. To get all 32 teams a rest week, that could be accomplished in eight weeks. Say, from Weeks 5-12. Seems pretty simple, right? But that’s not what we had. Instead, we had two different weeks with just two teams off, one week with six (!) teams off, and a period of nine weeks without having all 32 teams in action. There’s no reason to have bye weeks this late, and I hope the NFL fixed that starting in 2022. The league is smart enough to understand and embrace the importance of fantasy football, so for all of us needlessly suffering this Week 14, let’s hope they get it fixed. Where We Were Right Our quarterback projections were strong this week. In addition to having Josh Allen No. 1 overall, we were higher on Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers, who all finished inside the top-5. We also noted in the Discord that Lamar Jackson has not been good on the road this season and lowered him significantly. Wikipedia tells us that Aaron Rodgers is the current owner of the Chicago Bears, so clearly we projected an elite performance out of Green Bay’s passing attack. That placed Davante Adams as our No. 1 wide receiver for Week 14 and Adams responded by owning Chicago’s secondary with a 10/121/2 line- overall No. 1 wideout numbers. From zero to hero. Detroit RB Craig Reynolds was a late addition to the projections, but he came in as our RB40 for the week. Turns out, that wasn’t nearly high enough but was significantly higher than the consensus rankings. Only two other rankers had higher projections for the former undrafted free agent out of Kutztown. Where We Were Wrong The Chiefs scored 48 points but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both had disappointing performances. Both players have been rather muted over the past 4-6 weeks but we correctly thought Kansas City would roll Las Vegas at home. It was just frustrating to see a plan work out but still be so wrong. In that same game, we correctly predicted a big deficit and pass-friendly scenario for the Raiders but whiffed on TE Foster Moreau. The targets that we thought would go his way never materialized and all went to WR Hunter Renfrow instead. Moreau didn’t come anywhere near the TE10 numbers we projected. We need Darren Waller back in the worst way. It was easy to predict that Seattle would win and cover in Houston, which would lead to decent backfield numbers. We just didn’t think Rashaad Penny would blow up the way he did. Penny looked terrific and posted top-5 fantasy numbers for the week, while our projections had him down in RB3/4 territory. WR DK Metcalf also continues to frustrate and missed on multiple touchdown targets. ENTER OUR WEEK 15 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: Draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Try to stack the team with players you think will do well in Week 15! The highest Week 15 Score wins! (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 15 Player Rankings to help. It’s a bestball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one! Just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard! Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize
Manic Monday: Week 13
Lucky number 13. There’s just something about that number that will undoubtedly leave people feeling like they were cursed or unlucky this week. I’m an analyst, so numbers are just that to me- numbers. At the same time, I do understand why people feel that way. No joke, I almost always seem to be in at least two leagues where I give up the most points. Just one of those unlucky turns of the random schedule, but there’s no way it should happen this often. My team has given up the most points in my Scott Fish Bowl league for the third consecutive season. I’m still going to make the playoffs, but c’mon. The reality is most things are just random, or a coincidence, and our brains are programmed to look for patterns or the easiest way to explain things that seem irrational. Like Occam’s razor for the mind. To succeed in this line of work you have to put aside bias and find data that correlates conclusions. This often contradicts simple explanations like being unlucky, cursed, or having the football gods get involved. Yeah, I know it’s more fun to blame things out of your control because there’s no way you could randomly have so many things go against you. Probably just a product of today- where facts are subjective and opinions are often simply based on who yells the loudest instead of any actual proof. What’s luck got to do with it? As much as I’m a realist in football, I firmly believe in superstitions for baseball. I do not handle adversity well when I’m watching the Astros. During the 2017 World Series, I missed Game 5 after the boys got down 4-0 because I was too mad. I missed an amazing comeback and game but it was probably for the best. I’m not sure I could have handled those momentum swings. My most recent Astros game I attended was during the 2019 Division series, where I walked out of the stadium and Ubered home without telling my friends simply because Houston’s closer loaded the bases in the ninth. I was actually so upset I Ubered to the wrong house and had to get another ride. Anyway, yet, I will keep doing the same things when it involves the Astros, so it’s ok to embrace a little bit of superstition, I suppose. How else do you explain constantly losing games where you’re the second-highest scoring team in your league and just happen to be playing the highest scorer? Or entering Week 13 with a 4-8 record but ranking third in overall scoring? The solution to this one is actually easy. The final playoff spot in your league should go to the highest-scoring remaining team, regardless of record. How do you explain a week where Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, and Gardner Minshew were all top-10 fantasy quarterbacks ahead of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes? That ain’t bad luck. That’s just….well, I don’t know what that was. Where We Were Right It was a good running back week for the projections. Jonathan Taylor, Alexander Mattison, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, and Javonte Williams were all top-8 options in our PPR rankings and that’s where they all finished. We were also higher than the consensus on Josh Jacobs, Devonta Freeman, and Sony Michel, who all finished inside the top-20. Chris Godwin was our No. 2 wide receiver and he more than delivered, leading the league in targets (17), receptions (15), and racking up 143 receiving yards against the hapless Falcons. And having a few weeks off and lousy weather didn’t deter us from ranking Kyler Murray as about top signal-caller for Week 13. Entering Monday night, that’s precisely where Murray is after supplementing modest passing stats with 59 yards and a pair of scores on the ground. Murray looked as fast as ever taking off and running on a wet field and staked his claim to be a real difference-maker just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Where We Were Wrong We knew after Thursday that Dak Prescott was going to be a miss. The Cowboys won and covered that game rather easily but that had more to do with their defense than anything that Prescott did. We ranked him as a top-5 option for the slate but Prescott wound up producing fewer fantasy points than Andy Dalton. Now that’s bad luck. As solid as the running back rankings were, tight end was less spectacular. Top-10 options like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Kyle Pitts all finished outside of the top-15 and failed to get into the end zone or exceed 50 receiving yards. I’ve already hit on Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but the Chiefs really laid an egg on Sunday Night Football. Tyreek Hill has managed to have some huge games against what is usually a stout Denver secondary but it was just another disappointing performance overall for Mahomes and company. ENTER OUR WEEK 14 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: Draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Try to stack the team with players you think will do well in Week 14! The highest Week 14 Score wins! (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 14 Player Rankings to help. It’s a bestball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one! Just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard! Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize at the end of the season! The Grand Prize Winner (highest individual week of the season) gets to choose from the amazing prizes below. If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! MEMBER PERK! Fulltime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Drafts each month in our contest! DRAFT YOUR WEEK 14 TEAM and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Manic Monday: Week 12
Social media giveth and social media taketh away. I’m generally amused at how people handle social media on holiday weeks. For some reason, Thanksgiving food takes seems to be a hot topic and 2021 was no different. As a dad, I’m quite familiar with macaroni and cheese. If my son could, he would eat it 300 days a year or more. Granted, it’s not the special side that many families enjoy in a casserole dish during holidays, but I expressed my opinion that mac and cheese wasn’t a great side because of the frequency that we eat it. I want really unique holiday food. Things we don’t eat but once or twice a year that gives these last two months of the calendar that special appeal. Just how I feel….you know….an opinion. Or not. Needless to say, I was quickly ridiculed by a Twitter mob, many of which were people I’ve never interacted with and had no followers in common. Miserable people out seemingly searching ‘mac an cheese’ just so they could go tell strangers why their own opinion was, in fact, wrong. You’d have thought I said Mac and Me deserved the 1988 Oscar over The Last Emperor. I’ve been dealing with this for years so it was no problem, but slightly annoying. On the bright side, I wasn’t about to be one of those people that make a controversial statement on purpose to drum up attention then paint myself as the victim when I received backlash. I’m sure your grandma’s extras super duper special recipe is awesome and clearly, all I know is the stuff in the blue box, but I’m entitled to my opinion, as are you. And, I’m owning what I said: Mac and cheese is just ok. See, I believe in being accountable. Accountability ac·count·a·ble –/əˈkoun(t)əb(ə)l/ (adjective) – (of a person, organization, or institution) required or expected to justify actions or decisions; responsible. The keyword there is responsible. Whether it’s the rare food take or, more commonly, a football opinion, I always take full accountability for what I write or share on social media. It’s kinda half the reason I started writing this series every week. I ALWAYS pinpoint where we were wrong. To me, it’s vital to take responsibility when you’re off. Owning your mistakes can help identify what went wrong in the research and help refine the process. DFS touts have a long history of not taking accountability and only sharing the plays that go right. That’s easy. We’re all wrong, all the time. Just part of the game and what makes this hobby so much fun- trying to navigate the myriad of data to hit the occasional home run. I made plenty of calls in fantasy that didn’t work out too well this week and some of my game picks were just atrocious. I actually picked the Steelers to win and said to take the UNDER 47 in the Packers Rams tilt. That was toast in the third quarter. That was so bad, I’m thinking I should just switch to proper food decisions. Stuffing, by the way, is the correct choice. Where We Were Right Speaking of correct, we did well with Thursday’s second game. Our projections placed Michael Gallup and Hunter Renfrow inside our top-20 wide receivers for the week and that’s precisely where they are entering Monday. Renfrow, in fact, is WR5 in PPR formats. Leonard Fournette was our RB8 in PPR projections. After a four-score game, Fournette wound up posting the top overall fantasy numbers from the entire slate but few sources listed Tampa’s starting running back inside their top-12 backs for the week. It would feel wrong not to talk about the main theme for this week, Mac Jones, who we ranked as our QB15. Jones and the red-hot Patriots continue to get better each and every week, with Jones playing like a seasoned veteran and hitting some impressive throws in each contest. Where We Were Wrong Ugh, what an ugly week for quarterbacks. No signal-caller had posted more QB1 performances this season than Jalen Hurts, who seemed poised to have another stellar outing against a Giants defense that ranked in the bottom-10 against opposing quarterbacks. Hurts was awful, throwing three interceptions and having his worst outing of the season. And Hurts wasn’t the only quarterback we missed on. Cam Newton was even worse, posting an abysmal 23.8% completion percentage and tossing 4(!) picks. Should have known that a guy whose name is Mac spelled backward was going to be a poor choice. Running back wasn’t much better. Normal every-week studs like Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and Nick Chubb topped our projections and all finished far lower than that. CMC and Cook could even be sidelined for multiple weeks after exiting their respective games with injuries. That will shake things up in a major way as the fantasy playoffs approach…but maybe that’s precisely what we need after Week 12. Become a FullTime Fantasy subscriber and get full access to fully customizable weekly projections, premium DISCORD, and access to many advanced metrics and features, like our WR/CB tool that breaks down all the key weekly matchups that can be exploited. What will the tool that pinpointed Byron Pringle’s breakout have for Week 13? Go Pro! Join FullTime Fantasy!
Manic Monday Week 11
I remember back when I was about 19 or 20 being the first year I realized “wow, I must be an adult.” That was the first year that I consciously chose to fill up on all the good stuff for Thanksgiving, and didn’t even leave room for dessert. Like most kids, I previously wanted to just get through the obligatory food so I could devour pumpkin pie, homemade cookies, or this whip cream thing my aunt would bring. To this day, I don’t know what it was but we sure liked it. I heard something on the radio that stated that more than half of Americans would prefer not to have turkey at Thanksgiving. Seriously? Around a year or two after my accidental dessert boycott, somebody at my grandmother’s house decided she was too tired of turkey and wanted to make something else for Christmas. So they started preparing a large roast and macaroni and cheese. It was terrible. We get the privilege of eating turkey only twice a year, at Thanksgiving and Christmas- how could you be tired of it? How else were we going to knock out my uncle and grandfather without the overdose of Tryptophan? To this day I’m befuddled by that decision and also how so many people would choose to avoid turkey. It’s amazing. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. There’s turkey-kabobs, turkey creole, turkey gumbo, pan-fried, deep-fried, cajun-fried. There’s roasted turkey, sliced turkey, pepper turkey, jalapeño turkey, turkey soup, turkey stew, turkey salad, turkey and potatoes, turkey burger, turkey sandwiches. That’s about it. Now that I have a say, needless to say, we’re back to begin a two-time turkey family, and for that, I am very thankful. Thank You While we’re on the topic of being thankful, I’m very appreciative of all the drafts that I got Jonathan Taylor anywhere from 1.09 and sometimes even well into the second round. I’m thankful for James Conner totally proving me right when I tweeted this before the season: I don’t care. I’m still team James Conner > Chase Edmonds — #TagsStrong💪 (@JodySmithNFL) August 14, 2021 I’m thankful for Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, going for it on fourth down, 2-point conversions, and Jody Fortson. I’m thankful that I’m too busy to know what Tiger King, Squid Game, or BTS are. And mostly, I’m thankful to Scott Atkins and all of you for the opportunity to do this each and every week. I worked hard to get to this point and it is an absolute pleasure to do what I do each and every day of each and every week. I hope that your Thanksgiving is filled with food, family, friends, and football. And turkey. Where We Were Right We had concerns about game flow in the San Francisco/Jacksonville game, so even though he was back and healthy, we downgraded James Robinson to RB18. Thanks to a garbage-time touchdown, Robinson salvaged his day, but entering Monday, he is sitting exactly there, at RB18 in PPR scoring. I lowered initial projections for DeVonta Smith, which came out to WR31, nearly 10 spots lower than most other sites and experts listed the rookie wideout. Even though Smith had a fine game in itself, here he is, sitting at WR31 ahead of Monday Night Football. Speaking of the Eagles, targeting tight ends against Philadelphia has been quite profitable. That trend played out once again in Week 11, Adam Trautman has his highest projected score of the season and came through with a 5/58/1 showing on 8 targets. Where We Were Wrong What’s the deal with quarterbacks? We did well to rank Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Cam Newton inside out top-10, as per usual, but the rest of the Week 11 leaderboard? It seems like scoring was up but it certainly wasn’t in the games that we thought. Nice work, Titans. It wasn’t just Tennessee that let us down…looking at you Seattle. Russell Wilson struggled again, hovering around 50% completions and failing to produce a touchdown as the Seahawks dropped another game and dropped out of the playoff picture. Wilson’s struggles led to a minuscule outing for DK Metcalf, who we had as our No. 1 overall wideout. Dan Arnold‘s previous three games: 10 targets, 8 receptions, 68 yards, 14.8 PPR points 7 targets, 4 receptions, 4 points, 10 PPR points 7 targets, 5 receptions, 67 yards, 11. 7 PPR points. Week 11: 0 targets. Thanks for nothing, Urban. The 2021 NFL season is well underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES & UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter – Breaking Fantasy news & site updates! Like and share our new Facebook page! Be sure to pay attention to our giveaways for your shot at some sweet prizes!
Manic Monday Week 10
Ugly seems like a good adjective to describe what we saw in Week 10. The action on the field–or rather lack of action–led to some boring games, poor plays, and a lack of fantasy production. Those kinds of weeks always lead to us questioning our process, like anyone could have seen some of this garbage happening. A tie- that Pittsburgh/Detroit tilt set the sport back at least two years. Jared Goff had like 11 passing yards into the third quarter. The only positive here is that neither team deserved to win, yet somehow all of us lost. Bucs second bye – Tampa didn’t look ready to play in the first half. It’s pretty rare to see Tom Brady throw multiple first-half picks. Even worse, I was expecting the well-rested Bucs to come out and blow away the NFL’s worst secondary. True to Week 10 form, Washington win, and all the Tampa Bay fantasy options disappointed. No afternoon delight – After that forgettable early slate, some of the 4 PM games looked promising, but nope. The Cardinals had their worst half of the season, Chargers got little done against a vulnerable Minnesota secondary, and this appealing Packers/Seahawks contest featuring the return of both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers–the lowest-scoring first half of the entire season. Somehow, in this cruelest of weeks, Seattle was shut out for the first time in like a decade. Kinda wish Dwight had run one of his fire drills before this week started. We Put the ‘Under’ in Blunder In an effort to pull some kind of positive from the Sunday slate, I can say that bettors inclined to pick unders probably had a pretty profitable day. Some of our crack VegasWhispers.com crew in our Discord absolutely nailed those early games and made a killing. The unders on the early slate went 4-3 but that wasn’t even half the story. How about betting unders on player props? With all that lack of fantasy production, people that like playing on the dark side must’ve cleaned up. Only one quarterback surpassed 300 passing yards and more than half of the starters failed to even hit 200 passing yards. All with the weather playing very little factor in the mediocrity. Only four running backs hit the century mark and two of them came in that horrible Lions/Steelers game where all forward passes looked like Pam Beasley targeting Meredith’s grill. A mere four wideouts managed to top 100 yards, including…Gabriel Davis and Marcus Johnson? And all this on the week that Jakobi Meyers finally got into the end zone. Let’s just hope that this was the 2021 mulligan week because we don’t need to experience another Sunday like that or I’m going to have to start penning Panic Monday every week. Where We Were Right We like Las Vegas QB Derek Carr quite a bit, ranking him as the QB9 for the week. Despite the ugly results of the Sunday Night game overall, Carr managed to come through, throwing for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Heading into Monday, Carr sits as QB8 overall. Many people in the industry got excited about newly-signed Tennessee RB Adrian Peterson after the 36-year-0ld veteran punched in a touchdown last week in his debut. We actually expected Peterson to lose touches to D’Onta Foreman and that’s exactly what happened. We had Peterson outside of RB3 range for the week and he’s barely hanging onto a top-50 spot with a middling outing of 20 yards on nine touches. What looked like a head-scratcher became quite prophetic for Dallas Goedert. Our projections didn’t like the matchup for Goedert traveling to Denver and he was outside of our top-20 tight ends for the week. Granted, Goedert left the game in the first quarter with an injury, but it’s hard to find many victories in a week that was this whacky. Where We Were Wrong It became evident pretty early on that Week 10 was going to be one of those weeks. Quarterback was pretty rough…no way to sugarcoat that. Justin Herbert was projected as a top-3 option but ended up being outscored by Mason Rudolph and Tua Tagovailoa- who wasn’t even supposed to play. Tom Brady was also a big disappointment coming off of a bye and facing the league’s worst pass defense. That lingering shin injury and lack of usage for Antonio Gibson finally led to us dropping him well out of RB2 range. A big part of that was the opponent, as Tampa Bay had managed to make it extremely hard for opponents to run the ball. Gibson earned 26 touches, scored twice, and enters Monday as the RB7. Can we just say Seahawks? Huge miss on that Seattle/Green Bay tilt. I expected Russell Wilson to return and breathe some life into the Seahawks offense, which led to rather generous projection for Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. In true Week 10 fashion, we instead go one of the worst performances of Wilson’s career and the Seahawks got blanked. Nope. Don’t like that. Shout out to Scott. You got this, boss! The 2021 NFL season is well underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES & UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter – Breaking Fantasy news & site updates! Like and share our new Facebook page! Be sure to pay attention to our giveaways for your shot at some sweet prizes!
Manic Monday Week 9
Well, that was…something. What a way to move into the second half of the season, with a truly odd week. Some of the league’s best offenses were total no-shows and fantasy scoring appeared to be non-existent. Overall, division-leading teams went 2-4 on Sunday. It was so bad my buddies started texting incorrect versions of player names just to pass the time. This is something we’ve done for years but since there were so few touchdowns to occupy the conversation, the “mishaps’ were at a fever pitch Sunday. Some of my favorites: Head coach: John Hardball QB: Jacob Brisket QB: Stan DamnOld RB: Mike Gasket WR: Alan’s Feelings TE: Hunter Hearst Henry PK: Matthew Wrong Feels like some of those guys could’ve scored fantasy points than some of the guys we put in our lineups. That brisket guy is going places. Bizarro Week There’s an episode of Seinfeld where everything wrong or the opposite keeps happening. Affectionately called “The Bizarro Jerry,” Elaine meets three guys that look just like Jerry, George, and Kramer but pretty much act the exact opposite. That’s what Week 9 felt like. How else can you explain how Jacksonville Josh Allen seemingly scored more fantasy points than Buffalo Josh Allen? The Buffalo Bills went into Jacksonville and failed to score a touchdown. Had to have been LB Josh Allen’s man-hands, because he sure put them to use against Josh Allen. And how about them Cowboys? Getting blown out 30-0 at home by…Denver is an all-new season-low for Dallas. Looks like the red stripe didn’t help after all. I think I saw a few Dallas fans chugging Pepto Bismol like Kramer when his ulcer started acting up at Brandt-Leland. Surely the Browns would miss Odell Beckham, right? (Elaine voice) “GET OUT!” Cleveland laid the hammer down on Cincinnati like they haven’t since the fan base knew them as the Bungals. Weeks like this remind us all that it is a long, long season and we have to take it all in stride. If Week 9 hit you hard, just be thankful it wasn’t the playoffs, and continue to trust the process. Where We Were Right It was nice to see RB Christian McCaffrey back on the field and back in our projections. Despite the pre-game rumors that the Panthers would put McCaffrey on a snap count and split carries evenly with Chuba Hubbard, we projected CMC as RB15 and Hubbard all the way down at RB50. Entering Monday, McCaffrey ranks 14th and Hubbard is 48th. After researching things this week, I realized that WR Keenan Allen thrives against zone coverage and, with a date against Philadelphia’s defense on deck, I tweaked Allen’s projections to get him into WR1 range in PPR formats. Allen responded with a season-high 13 targets and 12 receptions en route to top-5 PPR stats for the week. One of the few big-name fantasy wideouts who showed up on Sunday. Our projections also liked QB Teddy Bridgewater quite a bit this week. His numbers came in as a top-10 fantasy signal-caller for the week, ahead Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins. That’s exactly what happened on Sunday. Bridgewater is currently QB6, while Cousins is one spot behind, and Hurts is outside of the top-10. Where We Were Wrong If I pretend it was LB Josh Allen instead of…ugh. I mean, one of the best quarterbacks in the league is facing the Jaguars, you go all in but that was….not good. We could pretty much say all Bills this week, but we’re not alone with missing here. How Buffalo traveled to Jacksonville and came away without a touchdown will be one of the great mysteries of the 2021 season. Badbye, indeed. We could also nominate all wideouts as a miss. The top-10 is currently loaded with guys that aren’t even rostered in most fantasy leagues. Most likely, scoring in your home league is significantly down. A lot of that has to do with some good teams being on bye this week but as the day developed, it just became more obvious it was going to be one of those weeks. Far too low on RB Joe Mixon. Actually, that Cleveland Cincinnati game was another one that just went awry. The Browns came through just fine without OBJ but the Bengals came out flat, leading to poor fantasy performances all around. Mixon was the bright spot, turning 18 touches into 110 total yards and punching in a pair of touchdowns. He’s currently inside the top-5 running backs for the week, significantly higher than our projected 20th.
Manic Monday: Week 8
I’ve got to stop buying candy. This year I actually did forget but ran into the drug store during halftime of the early games and got just one bag. Because this may be the final year my son goes trick or treating, I was out and about in the prime hours. Oh, props to this guy. By the time he was done and I clicked on the light, not one knock. Now I’ve got this entire bag of 50-plus pieces of candy to sit here and tempt me. And of course, I bought the variety pack of the good stuff. Twix, Snickers, Milky Way Midnight. As I’m catching up on the Dallas/Minnesota game, it made me think of some of the memorable performances from Week 8 and how I could assign a candy grade award system. Candy Is Dandy Since I’ve got all this leftover candy that I’d rather distribute than be forced to slowly eat over the next few weeks, I’d like to hypothetically award it to players who came through in Week 8. I know somebody in a Superflex league who had to pick Mike White up just to have one QB in their lineup. Talk about coming through. Gonna have to reward White with a Reese’s, but let go full-on Reese’s pumpkin. Tyler Lockett gets a Snickers for finally coming through for those of us who kept trotting him out in our lineups. Rookie RB Michael Carter is starting to become a beast. Carter got 24 touches and went for 172 scrimmage yards, a touchdown, and the No. 1 overall fantasy running back award for Sunday. Carter would definitely deserve a full-size Kit Kat bar. We all had to lower expectations for the Dallas offense this week, yet Amari Cooper still delivered top-5 fantasy numbers. Gotta lean with a left Twix for Coop. As we predicted, not all Cowboys came through for fantasy managers. Ezekiel Elliott and other top-5 studs like Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry had underwhelming outings that stung. Therefore, seems appropriate to give those backs these terrible strawberry-filled candies that normally go right into the trash. Were the Vikings upset they missed out on trick of treating? All around uninspiring performance for the Minnesota offense, but by guy Justin Jefferson had an egregious dud, so he gets Milk Duds and gets to deal with them being stuck in his teeth. Thanks for nothing. Tight end was particularly difficult this week. Pretty much any guy that most of us view as a top-10 option this week…Tyler Higbee, Dalton Schultz, Noah Fant, Hunter Henry…thanks for nothing. Y’all don’t even get candy. Go pick up some pecans out of my neighbor’s yard. Where We Were Right The Jets have been inept against the run, so we projected Joe Mixon as our overall RB3 for Week 8. Entering Monday, Mixon currently ranks No. 2 thanks to a productive day through the air and a pair of touchdowns. Cole Beasley in the top-20 is something that stood out as risky, but after 10 grabs and 110 receiving yards, Beasley is the WR16 and easily had his best game of the season against Miami. Overall, tight end was rough, but we weren’t so sure Rob Gronkowski was going to be that effective after a fairly long layoff. Gronk came in outside out top-20 this week and, predictably, didn’t finish the game or even score a point on his one target. Where We Were Wrong What was I just saying about the Vikings? Oh yeah, they didn’t exactly take advantage of a game where they were favorites against a Dallas squad playing without Dak Prescott. We missed on many of Minnesota’s studs, like Cook, Jefferson, and Kirk Cousins, who we liked as a top-5 option. The way Tom Brady has been playing, we weren’t too worried about Mike Evans being shadowed by Marshon Lattimore. While Evans did get a TD, Lattimore did an admirable job in coverage, limiting Evans to just two catches and a WR28 finish. I host the FullTime Fantasy Discord chat each week and one of the questions was about Kenneth Gainwell and the Eagles’ backfield. Man, the process was so right as Philadelphia crushed Detriot, and Jalen Hurts was held out of the end zone, but I thought it would be Gainwell, not Jordan Howard and Boston Scott who would be making multiple house calls. Speaking of Discord, join us in Week 9: The 2021 NFL season is well underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES & UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter – Breaking Fantasy news & site updates! Like and share our new Facebook page! Be sure to pay attention to our giveaways for your shot at some sweet prizes!