Week 3 NFL Player Props

Week 2 is in the books and Week 3 is underway as the New York Jets look to extend their winning streak against AFC East rival, the New England Patriots, in primetime on Thursday Night Football. Last week, we weren’t as profitable as in Week 1. But we still came away in the green due to our multiple units on Joe Burrow. After a 6-1 Week 1 record, we went 3-3 in Week 2 but gained 1.45 Units. We are now 9-4 (+6.3 Units) on the young season. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum heading into Week 3 of the NFL season!

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 3 NFL prop bets!

Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown (-165)

Breece has scored a touchdown in each of his first two contests of the young season and although he’s facing a stingy New England Patriots run defense, the offense will continue to run through Hall. Yes, Braelon Allen found the end zone twice last week but Hall has seen 21 touches in each of his first matchups of the season, and we all know that volume is king.

Hall faced New England twice in his rookie campaign. The first time, he was held in check with just 18 scoreless rushing yards and a lone reception for nine yards. But that was just his third game as an NFL pro. Later in the season when the Jets faced the Patriots for a second time, Hall shredded the defense. The stud running back tallied 178 rushing yards on 37 carries and found the end zone. Additionally, he caught two passes for 12 yards.

Aaron Rodgers has been using Hall substantially in the short passing game so Hall has a chance to find the end zone not just as a rusher but also as a receiver. Last week, he hauled in a 26-yard touchdown reception where he looked more like a receiver than a running back. The kid has serious skills and great hands. Given that the Jets are heavy favorites in their first home game of the season, I like Hall’s chances of punching it into the end zone. The value could be better but I expect Hall to…

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2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is simple: actually use the abundance of skill position talent the Falcons have accrued.

Having a quality leader is paramount to accomplishing that goal. Enter new QB Kirk Cousins, a huge improvement over Desmond Ridder. Cousins signed a four-deal with $100 million guaranteed after posting top-10 fantasy points per game numbers in each of his last four campaigns.

Since becoming a starter, Cousins has averaged 4,264 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season. Cousins gives the Falcons their best quarterback since prime Matt Ryan. With the weapons around him, Cousins should once again be one of the top fantasy football value targets. However, he is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury and was ‘stunned’ when the club used the No.8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Michael Penix. It was a questionable move and worth monitoring all summer.

Bijan Robinson was given more than 15 carries just four times in his rookie season, yet still posted over RB8 numbers. That inexplicable lack of usage will change with Zac Robinson calling plays. Zac Robinson comes from a Rams’ system that force-fed their lead back more than any other team. Fantasy managers fortunate enough to draft should be equally excited. B-Rob has the talent to be the No. 1 overall fantasy option in 2024.

The biggest impact Kirk Cousins will have is on an Atlanta passing attack that ranked 26th last season. Cousins has a long history of heavily targeting his No. 1 wideout. This will be huge for Drake London, who should top 130 targets for the first time in his career.

Atlanta also spent big to upgrade one of the thinnest receiving corps in football. Darnell Mooney is a downfield speedster who will benefit from Cousins’s deep-ball accuracy. Moore will function closer to the line of scrimmage, taking the occasional handoff and acting as an outlet option.

The biggest benefactor of the Cousins signing might be TE Kyle Pitts. Despite running only 14.9% of his routes as an in-line tight end, Pitts was criminally underutilized by the previous regime. Pitts should continue to see plenty of reps from the slot and perimeter and is a good bet to see a big boost in target share.

Atlanta has top-10 talent at all three skill positions, giving them a lot of leverage and depth for a creative play-caller. This team should get involved in several “track meet” types of contests. Fantasy managers should not hesitate to target the new dirty birds.

Quarterbacks

QB KIRK COUSINS – QUALITY BACKUP

Because he’s been so consistently productive, averaging over 4,263 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season since becoming a starter, Kirk Cousins has been one of the top fantasy values annually. But a torn Achilles and a change of address to Atlanta complicate his 2024 status. As does the baffling choice to draft Michael Penix Jr. We know Cousins can sling it. He’s posted QB1 fantasy points per game numbers in three of the past four seasons. The Falcons also boast some intriguing skill-position talent and the league’s easiest strength of schedule. A healthy Cousins can be an elite fantasy option but fantasy managers have to mitigate significant risk this season. ADVICE: Risk/reward QB2…

 

Week 12 DFS: Tight End Report

Last week, the tight end position had a down week in scoring, leading to only eight players scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Three of those tight ends (Josh Oliver – 14.70, Stone Smartt – 12.10, and Luke Schoonmaker – 10.30) were backup options on their teams. George Kittle (22.90) was the only difference-maker at tight end in Week 12. Travis Kelce (16.40) posted the second-best game. Here are the top five tight ends over 11 weeks ranked by scoring average:

• Travis Kelce (15.71)
• T.J. Hockenson (15.60)
• George Kittle (13.80)
• Sam LaPorta (12.52)
• Mark Andrews (12.31)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 12 DFS: QB Report.

Elite Options

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,300)

The Chiefs struggled to get Kelce the ball over the past three weeks (6/58, 3/14, 7/44/1 on 22 combined targets), putting the brakes on his rising stock from Week 5 to Week 7 (31/370/2 on 33 targets). Last year, he had 13 catches for 63 yards and four touchdowns on 15 targets in two games vs. the Raiders. Kelce has a floor of nine targets in seven of his nine starts.

Las Vegas sits 11th in tight end fantasy defense (55/481/3 on 68 targets), with no player gaining more than 70 receiver yards (Tyler Conklin – 7/70). Their higher ranking is helped by a favorable tight end schedule (DEN – 7/56, BUF – 8/53/1, PIT – 3/41/1, LAC – 2/9, GB – 8/65, NE – 5/50, CHI – 1/16, DET – 9/62/1, NYG – 3/43, NYJ – 8/76, and MIA – 1/10). 

Based on his salary, Kelce should be considered an elite WR1 in the DFS market. He needs 30+ fantasy points to fill his salary bucket which requires a 7/100/2 type outcome. The decision is whether Kelce can match the top running backs and wide receivers in Week 12. 

Mid-Tier Options

 

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

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The NFL season is right around the corner. That means the fantasy football draft season has finally arrived! Our annual Flagship Feature is called Preseason Pro. This 2023 Preseason Pro: Shawn Childs gives you exclusive insight you can find only at FullTime Fantasy.

Here at FullTime Fantasy, we’ve assembled the very best high-stakes players in the world; 5 of the Top 10 World-Ranked players, and one of the top RANKERS in the country — to help you win your Fantasy Football league.

Nobody else in the industry can bring you this type of information. Also, we host the Fantasy Football World Championships and these players are gracious enough to lend us a hand to help promote the very best content in the industry.

Each of them is putting their reputation on the line for all to see and is providing us with their:

ONE Top Sleeper, ONE Breakout, ONE Bust

ONE Comeback, and ONE late-round Stash & Cash.

to help you with your upcoming draft. However- it’s only one per category! They don’t know what anyone else has submitted so you’re getting the unvarnished gut check from the very best players in the world. High rollers have offered some of them literally hundreds of dollars for this kind of private advice. And that’s just for just one opinion. Here you’re getting no less than SEVEN, and Preseason Pro continues to be the elite product of the fantasy season.

This year’s Preseason Pro picks are included FREE with your FullTime Fantasy Membership!

What makes their opinion so worthy? Simple. They win. Year in and year out they’re winners. While some may ask, “Why would they help me?”, there is no question that when their pride and integrity are on the line, they step up and make bold calls to help others. When we have questions on Sunday, this is who we call. We’re essentially bringing our high-stakes connections to FullTime Fantasy.

When your league is on the line, who do you trust? A magazine that contains out-of-date news? No. Those days are over. Not all experts are considered equal. 

Up next, our Preseason Pro: Shawn Childs offers insight from NFBC Hall of Famer writer Shawn Childs, the legend behind many of FullTime Fantasy’s metrics and projections.

— BREAKOUT —

Javonte Williams (RB) Denver Broncos- When searching for the player with the highest ceiling, I want a running back who will lead the team in scoring, have early-down rushing value, and be active in the passing game. The player with the highest upside in the RB2 tier is Williams. 

In his rookie season, in a split role with Melvin Gordon, Williams gained 1,219 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 43 catches on 246 touches. He finished 17th in running back scoring (206.30) in PPR formats, while Gordon ranked 18th in fantasy points (198.70). 

Williams has started to move up in drafts, especially in the high-stakes market (RB19). He runs with power, and his pass-catching in his rookie season highlights his potential floor in Payton’s offense. Denver should give Williams the bulk of chances at the goal line. I have him projected to gain…

 

WHO WILL BE SHAWN’S SLEEPER, BUST, COMEBACK, AND LATE-ROUND STATSH FOR THE UPCOMING FANTASY FOOTBALL SEASON?

 

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2023 Atlanta Falcons Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Atlanta Falcons Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Desmond Ridder

Ridder was a four-year starter in college who relied on his legs to make many plays (501/2,180/28). In 2021, he helped Cincinnati to an undefeated regular season (13-0) before bowing out to Alabama in the BCS Championship Series. He had growth in the passing game (3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions) while finishing with a step back in rushing production (110/355/6 – 3.2 yards per carry). Over his final three seasons, Ridder went 33-4, with three losses coming against Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama.

His movements in the pocket and the run game have similarities to DeSean Watson, but Ridder doesn’t have the arm strength or accuracy in the deep passing game. He wants to throw first while having the speed and running ability to make chunk plays if Ridder sees an opening at the line of scrimmage. When in rhythm, he’ll make quick decisions over the short areas of the field. Cincinnati lined him up in the shotgun on most plays while using their back more at a safety outlet in the passing game rather than a play-action run threat. When asked to challenge a defense downfield, Ridder chose air over arm strength, which may be a problem in the NFL.

In his rookie season, the Falcons gave him four starts, leading to 764 combined yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. His best showing came in Week 18 (233/2).

Fantasy Outlook: Atlanta already named Ridder their starter for 2023. The Falcons have three upside receiving options (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson), but they will rarely throw the ball more than 30 times in a game. Ridder helps his floor with his value in the run game while being on a path to throw the ball about 475 times if he makes 17 starts. He ranks 22nd at quarterback in late June in the high-stakes market. His starting projection should be around 3,500 combined yards and 25 touchdowns (20 passing and five rushing).
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Other Options: Taylor Heinicke, Logan Franks, Feleipe Franks

— Running Backs —

The Falcons’ ball carriers gained almost a full yard per carry (4.9) more than in 2020 (3.8) and 2021 (3.9). They finished with a gain of 105 carries, 850 yards, and five touchdowns over last year’s rushing stats. As a result, they had a sharp decline in catches (53), receiving yards (333), and targets (66). Their backs gained a combined 2,549 combined yards with 14 touchdowns and 53 catches, leading to 391.9 fantasy points in PPR formats (23.05 per game).

Bijan Robinson

Over 31 games at Texas, Robinson gained 4,215 combined yards with 41 touchdowns and 60 catches. The Longhorns gave him 277 touches in 2022, highlighted by his success in the run game (258/1,580/18). His best pass-catching opportunity came in 2021 (26/295/4). Robinson finished last season with three impact games (20/183/3 with one catch for 19 yards, 30/209/1 with two catches for 34 yards, and 25/243/4).

Robinson ran many of his plays out of the shotgun where he showed patience and a counterpuncher’s mentality. It’s hard to knock him off his feet with arm tackles below the belt. His ability to hesitate in the heat of a tackle leads to surprising plays in tight quarters. Robinson’s flow and movements in the passing game project at an elite level. When seeing daylight early, he hits the gas with the wiggles to make defenders miss at the second level of the defense. 

Fantasy Outlook: The fantasy world is in tune with the potential of Robinson in his rookie season based on his third ranking at running back in the high-stakes market. A high opportunity in the run game should be a given, even with Atlanta expected to rotate in a second back. His scoring power and value in the passing game are critical components to his final destination in fantasy scoring. In 2021, Desmond Ridder completed 34 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns to his running backs in college while attempting 387 passes. For now, I’ll set his bar at 325 touches with 1,800 combined yards, 10 scores, and 50 catches. 

Tyler Allgeier

Over his last two seasons at BYU, Allgeier gained 3,104 combined yards with 36 touchdowns and 42 catches on 468 touches. However, his explosiveness regressed in 2021 (5.8 yards per carry – 7.5 in 2020) after receiving a workhorse opportunity (276 rushes) in the run game. His value in the passing game improved over his final two years (14/174 and 28/199).

Allgeier brings size (5’11” and 225 lbs.) to the table, but his game isn’t built around power. He runs with vision while lacking fluidness in his runs and acceleration to make defenses pay for their makes at the first level. However, when given daylight in space, Allgeier will take what is given to him. He can succeed with volume of touches, and his value in the passing game should improve with more experience. 

In his rookie season with RB1 snaps for the Falcons, Allgeier gained 1,174 combined yards with four touchdowns and 16 catches on 226 touches. His best value came over his final four starts (70/431/2 with six catches for 52 yards). 

Fantasy Outlook: With some quick math based on last year’s stats in Atlanta, Allgeier should see…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE FALCONS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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SuperFlex leagues are becoming more popular each year with the glut of the position of quarterback becomes more prevalent across the fantasy landscape. Seems every team even in 12 team leagues has 2 quality options to choose from on most non-bye weeks. Superflex allows you to flex that muscle of QB depth rather than wasting away on your bench. Here are our post NFL Draft SuperFlex Dynasty Rookie Rankings for your upcoming 2021 Dynasty Rookie Drafts. Clicking on a player’s name will open his scouting profile we posted to FFToolbox.

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB – Jaguars

Lawrence is a no-brainer at the top of any quarterback premium formats. He enters the NFL with top-10 dynasty value at his position and will be in position to further improve upon that value. The Urban Meyer-led offense is sneakily loaded with playmakers who will flourish under the arm talent of Lawrence. Expect DJ Chark and Marvin Jones to man the outside while second-year breakout candidate Laviska Shenault operates out of the slot. The dangerous tandem of Travis Etienne and James Robinson will provide a nice security blanket out of the backfield. Fire away with Lawrence at 1.01.

2. Justin Fields, QB – Bears

Despite being the fourth quarterback taken in the NFL draft, Justin Fields sits just below Lawrence at second overall due to his combination of elite arm and leg talent. Once the Bears bench Andy Dalton after four games, Fields will step in and immediately pay dividends for fantasy owners. A Dak Prescott-like rookie season is within reach with Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney being a thunder and lightning duo on the outside. Matt Nagy’s play calling will improve with the rookie phenom at the helm of the offense.

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Rookie tight end is a deeper than expected class this year which includes an elite can’t miss prospect, but what does that mean for dynasty rookie drafts in the Dynasty Football World Championships? Let’s take a deeper dive into the NFL rookie class of 2021 tight ends.

Kyle Pitts – Florida / 6’6″ – 245
Pitts is an athletic freak who is able to work in-line, in the slot, and outside the numbers. He will be a gigantic mismatch in the red zone by using his size and massive catch radius. With excellent body control and ability to adjust to back-shoulder throws, Pitts will be impossible to cover man-to-man. He holds his own as a blocker and does surprisingly well creating lanes in the run game. Though he shows the potential to be a high-end weapon, Pitts is not a can’t-miss prospect. He struggles to separate against man coverage and isn’t a fluid athlete, albeit difficult to fully coordinate a 6’6″ frame. He often double-clutches the ball, which will allow defenders an extra chance to break up the play.

• Grade: High-end starter
• Comparison: Jimmy Graham
• NFL Draft Projection: 1st
• Projected DFWC ADP: Mid 1st Round 
• Bottom Line: Pitts has the ability to be a high-end, pass-catching tight end should he improve his route fluidity. He’s far from a generational player, but he will be a Noah Fant-level weapon for years to come. Ease the hype just a bit, folks.

Pat Freiermuth – Penn State / 6’5″ – 245

Freiermuth is an all-around player who will excel as a blocker just as much as a receiver. He has a strong, well-balanced frame to help engage and hold blocks with ease. Freiermuth is comfortable hitting the seam and is tough to bring down with the ball in his hands. He tracks the ball well but needs to come down with a higher percentage of contested catches. His speed is slightly above average, but he wins in all other facets. Knowing when and where to sit down in coverage is a plus and will benefit his NFL quarterback almost immediately. Once he refines his route running and boosts his confidence in his hands, watch out for the Freiermuth explosion.

• Grade: High-end starter
• Comparison: (reserved for members only)
• Draft Projection: (reserved for members only)
• Projected DFWC ADP (reserved for members only)

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