Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.

It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.

Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.

This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.

Matchup 

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Dallas Cowboys	9	1	30	16	6
New York Giants	22	21	19	25	29

The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.

Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.

The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.

New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.

On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.

The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?

Dallas Offense 

Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…

 

How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?

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2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is simple: actually use the abundance of skill position talent the Falcons have accrued.

Having a quality leader is paramount to accomplishing that goal. Enter new QB Kirk Cousins, a huge improvement over Desmond Ridder. Cousins signed a four-deal with $100 million guaranteed after posting top-10 fantasy points per game numbers in each of his last four campaigns.

Since becoming a starter, Cousins has averaged 4,264 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season. Cousins gives the Falcons their best quarterback since prime Matt Ryan. With the weapons around him, Cousins should once again be one of the top fantasy football value targets. However, he is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury and was ‘stunned’ when the club used the No.8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Michael Penix. It was a questionable move and worth monitoring all summer.

Bijan Robinson was given more than 15 carries just four times in his rookie season, yet still posted over RB8 numbers. That inexplicable lack of usage will change with Zac Robinson calling plays. Zac Robinson comes from a Rams’ system that force-fed their lead back more than any other team. Fantasy managers fortunate enough to draft should be equally excited. B-Rob has the talent to be the No. 1 overall fantasy option in 2024.

The biggest impact Kirk Cousins will have is on an Atlanta passing attack that ranked 26th last season. Cousins has a long history of heavily targeting his No. 1 wideout. This will be huge for Drake London, who should top 130 targets for the first time in his career.

Atlanta also spent big to upgrade one of the thinnest receiving corps in football. Darnell Mooney is a downfield speedster who will benefit from Cousins’s deep-ball accuracy. Moore will function closer to the line of scrimmage, taking the occasional handoff and acting as an outlet option.

The biggest benefactor of the Cousins signing might be TE Kyle Pitts. Despite running only 14.9% of his routes as an in-line tight end, Pitts was criminally underutilized by the previous regime. Pitts should continue to see plenty of reps from the slot and perimeter and is a good bet to see a big boost in target share.

Atlanta has top-10 talent at all three skill positions, giving them a lot of leverage and depth for a creative play-caller. This team should get involved in several “track meet” types of contests. Fantasy managers should not hesitate to target the new dirty birds.

Quarterbacks

QB KIRK COUSINS – QUALITY BACKUP

Because he’s been so consistently productive, averaging over 4,263 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season since becoming a starter, Kirk Cousins has been one of the top fantasy values annually. But a torn Achilles and a change of address to Atlanta complicate his 2024 status. As does the baffling choice to draft Michael Penix Jr. We know Cousins can sling it. He’s posted QB1 fantasy points per game numbers in three of the past four seasons. The Falcons also boast some intriguing skill-position talent and the league’s easiest strength of schedule. A healthy Cousins can be an elite fantasy option but fantasy managers have to mitigate significant risk this season. ADVICE: Risk/reward QB2…

 

The opening week of the 2023 NFL season was filled with surprises. A good percentage of those were poor ones. That includes both participants in tonight’s games. Hopefully, both squads can turn it around, but we’ll dig deep in our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2.

 

Philadelphia managed to pull out a win in Week 1 but had an underwhelming offensive showing in New England. Meanwhile, the Vikings were stunned at home, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17.

Both teams are loaded with fantasy-relevant talent. The main question is will we see both offenses rebound? The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2 analyzes the game with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.

Matchup 

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Minnesota Vikings	6	3	31	2	20
Philadelphia Eagles	24	23	14	22	8

Both squads fought in close matchups in their openers. Philadelphia’s potent offense was held to 154 passing yards by Bill Belcichik’s defense. The Eagles were just 4-of-13 on third downs and held to 4.1 yards per play.

Expect things to rebound for Philly on Thursday. Turnovers did the Vikings in last week. Minnesota outplayed the Buccaneers but lost the turnover battle 3-0. For the Vikings to have a shot against a tough Eagles team on the road, they must clean up that part of their game.

Minnesota enters this game as a 6.5-point underdog. The over/under of 49 is the second-highest of the slate.

Let’s break down what that means from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective in our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2.

How will Thursday’s Vikings vs. Eagles game go?

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NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Vikings – 6

Over/Under: 45.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has a 31-38 record while gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt in his career. Last year, Tampa threw the ball 751 times but allowed only 22 sacks. Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly was the most significant factor, not the offensive line. The Bucs will throw the ball a lot less in 2023, with a spike in sacks and bad passing plays. Mike Evans hopes to extend his streak of at least 1,000 receiving yards to 10 seasons. Tampa hopes Rachaad White can make more explosive plays in his second year with the Bucs. Chirs Godwin capitalized on his time with Brady, leading to 202 catches for 2,126 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two years.

Minnesota had the best wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) in the land, based on fantasy ADPs all summer. The Vikings want to attack via the pass, and they added another dynamic wideout (Jordan Addison) in this draft class. The running back position is in transition, but Minnesota hopes Alexander Mattison can carry the RB1 load. T.J. Hockenson played the best ball of his career after arriving midseason to the Vikings. K.J. Osborn gives Kirk Cousins another dependable receiver to move the ball.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

• Over his last 18 starts. Mayfield passed for more than 235 yards in one game (11/28/2021 – 247/1). He has 18 touchdowns over this span when starting, with 18 interceptions and 57 sacks (525 pass attempts – 10.9%). Tom Brady threw the ball 1,452 times in 2021 and 2022, but he only was sacked 44 times (2.9%). The bottom line with this rant is that the Vikings could be a gold mine in Week 1 despite their poor outlook.
• The Vikings had the fifth-worst pass defense (22.02 FPPG), with nine teams passing for 300 yards (333/1, 418/2, 326/3, 330/1, 301/2, 382/2, 369/0, 330/3, and 334/1). Their defense finished with 35 sacks.
• Compared to 2022, the Vikings’ defense should be better in the secondary if Lewis Cine seizes a starting job and one of their young cornerbacks steps up to handle a starting gig. I see a below-par defensive line with three assets on the first two levels of their defense – Marcus Davenport, Danielle Hunter, and Jordan Hicks.
• As much as I expect Mayfield to fail over the long haul in 2023, Tampa will chase on the scoreboard, and he does have two proven wide receivers and a pass-catching running back.

Rachaad White

• The Bucs’ running backs had 338 catches for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns on 286 targets over the past two seasons. Again, their success was tied to Brady dumping the ball off and the elite number of pass attempts by Tampa Bay.
• White ranked 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues, gaining 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch. He did secure 50 of his 58 targets.
• Running backs had 90 catches for 667 yards and four touchdowns on 115 targets against Minnesota in 2022.
• Game flow should favor him in the passing game, and his salary is low enough that a touchdown added to his expected…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Kirk Cousins

Since arriving in Minnesota, Cousins posted a 46-33-1 record, with strength in his completion rate (67.8). He averaged 32 touchdowns over five seasons with the Vikings while sitting out two games.

In 2020 and 2021, Cousins ranked 11th and 10th in fantasy scoring (366.95 and 352.35) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. His floor was 4,200 passing yards in three seasons from 2018 to 2021 while offering minimal value in the run game (44/123/1, 31/63/1, 32/156/1, and 29/115/1) over this span. In 2021, he passed for more than 300 yards in six matchups, but Cousins finished with only one impact game (32.25 fantasy points). On his down days, he scored fewer than 20.00 fantasy points in six outings, four of which gained less than 225 yards passing.

Last season, Cousins set career-highs in completions (424) and passing attempts (643), with his second-best showing in passing yards (4,547). A shorter passing window (46 sacks) led to weakness in his yards per pass attempt (7.1). After a sluggish first eight games (1,999 passing yards and 13 touchdowns), he produced three impact games (298/3, 425/2, 460/4, and 301/3) over the next seven weeks. Cousins finished 6th in quarterback scoring (354.95), falling in line with his previous two seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: Cousins will have a top-five opportunity in the league to throw again in 2023 while playing with an electric WR1 (Justin Jefferson). T.J. Hockenson (60/519/3 over 10 games) proved to be an excellent addition at the trade deadline last year. The combination of K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison gives Minnesota the passing depth to test defenses all over the field. Cousins doesn’t add much on the ground (31/97/2), leading to him ranking 12th at quarterback in June. Next step: 5,000 combined yards with a career-high in touchdowns.

— Running Backs —

The Vikings running back production in rushing yards (1,556) and receiving yards (493) declined in back-to-back seasons. In addition, their yards per rush (4.2) is trending in the wrong direction. They set three-year lows in rushing attempts (369), catches (66), and targets (88). Their backs gained 2,049 yards with 19 touchdowns and 66 catches (22.64 FPPG in PPR formats). The only positive out of last year was Minnesota’s willingness to run the ball in close for touchdowns.

Alexander Mattison

Minnesota gave Mattison the best opportunity of his three-year career in 2021, leading to 719 combined yards with four touchdowns and 32 catches. In his three games with starting snaps and over 20 touches (32, 32, and 25), he delivered Dalvin Cook-type production in fantasy points (23.10, 27.30, and 21.40) in PPR formats. However, over his other 13 matchups, Mattison scored only 55.60 combined fantasy points. In addition, his yards per rush (3.7) and yards per catch (7.1) came in at career lows.

Last season, he saw his role slide to the lowest point in his four years (374 combined yards with six touchdowns and 15 catches on 89 touches). Mattison finished with the second-most running back snaps (304 – 24.8%). His decline in chances was due to Dalvin Cook staying healthier in 2022. On the downside, Mattison gained only 3.8 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per rush. His only playable fantasy game came in Week 18 (10/54/2 with one catch for six yards).

Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, Mattison ranks 31st at running back as they wait for the Vikings to give some inside on their running back plans in 2023. He’s shown flashes over his career, suggesting 200 touches are within reach. On the downside, Mattison doesn’t have the resume or ceiling to keep the starting job if he stumbles out of the gate. My starting point is 1,000 combined yards with six to eight scores and 30 catches. His outlook will fluctuate over the summer.

Ty Chandler

 

The Vikings took a flier on Chandler in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He saw action over five years in college, leading to 3,810 combined yards with 30 touchdowns and 72 catches. His stock rose in 2021 after switching to North Carolina (182/1,092/13 with 14 catches for 207 yards and one score). 

Chandler brings elite speed (4.38 40-yard dash) to Minnesota. His hands grade higher than

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE VIKINGS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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