Kareem Hunt Archives - FullTime Fantasy

Fantasy Football: Deal or No Deal Alvin Kamara

Fantasy Football: Deal or No Deal Alvin Kamara The Saints’ offense has had many changes in the offseason. It started with a $150 million deal for four years in March for Derek Carr. The ball finally dropped on Alvin Kamara’s suspension (three games). That created a potential buying opportunity for him in early August as the fantasy market tries to evaluate his “new value” with Jamaal Williams and Kareen Hunt added to the backfield. Now it’s time for Fantasy Football: Deal or No Deal Alvin Kamara. First, New Orleans has the foundation of being much better at passing the ball if Michael Thomas can deliver 80% of his previous self and Chris Olave delivers on his expectations. Over the two last seasons, the Saints threw the ball only 504 and 512 times due to Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Andy Dalton starting at quarterback in the post-Drew Brees era. In addition, they played without their star wideout (Thomas) over this span. In my first run of the projections in June, I had Kamara suspended for 10 games. Once he settled his court case, I lowered his missed time to six games. The NFL decided on three weeks for his off-the-field incident. That meant Kamara was a deal in most early drafts if he stays healthy. Looking back at the Saints’ offensive profile, the running back position in New Orleans’ offense has been active for several years, especially with Brees behind center. Here’s a look at their running back production over the past three seasons: The Saints’ defense ranked in the top 10 in points and yards allowed from 2020 to 2022, leading to a more ball-controlled offense and bottom-tier ranking in pass attempts. Despite the regression, their backs still had 113, 88, and 85 catches over this span, averaging 7.46 targets per game. They caught 30, 31, and 25 % of the team’s completions over the previous three seasons. In the first run of the 2023 fantasy football projections, I didn’t see enough strength in the Saints’ other backs to support their previous value in catches. My starting point was 18% of the team’s completions (about 60 catches), well below their previous opportunity. This season, I have New Orleans throwing the ball 592 times with two active wideouts (Chris Olave and Michael Thomas). Despite the increase in pass attempts and a better overall offense, I only have the Saints’ backs catching 77 passes, which looks out of line (too low). Potentially Adding Kareem Hunt Here’s a look at the Saints’ backfield if they signed Kareem Hunt: Over the first three weeks, Williams and Hunt would see almost all of New Orleans’s running back action. Hunt assumes the Kamara slot in the offense. That points to about a third of the carries and the majority of snaps on passing downs. Williams should get the first crack at goal-line chances in the run game. Once Kamara returns, I expect him to see about 60% of the early down action and most of the chances on passing downs. Ideally, Kamara would average between three to four catches with about 15 rushing attempts. However, I feel I have him unprojected in catches, leaving more upside to his outlook. I view Kamara as a fifth-round back who is getting drafted late in the seventh round. Since his suspension, he still ranks 30th at running back in PPR formats. Kamara should be a mid-tier RB2, and I have no problem if someone drafts at the 18th running back. Over his 88 career games, he averaged 4.9 catches for 42.6 yards and 0.25 touchdowns or 10.66 fantasy points in PPR formats. Based on this alone, Kamara would have ranked 22nd in fantasy scoring in 2022. As far as Hunt, he should be a natural handcuff to Kamara while having a better career body of work than Jamaal Williams. I have enough confidence in Hunt to use him as a cheat RB2 on a WR-strong team over the first three weeks. The bottom line with the Saints’ offense is that they will be much better than in 2022 if their key offensive personnel stay healthy. The running back position should push close to 100 catches. Also, I need to address this shortfall in their projections next week. In 2016, Le’Veon Bell sat out the first three games but still helped fantasy teams win their league and overall championships. Finally, in the high-stakes market, the sharp drafters tend to focus on pass-catching backs late. Kamara should be shining brightly in PPR formats, and he almost falls into the free category in early August. Also, If you have time to prepare, make sure you mock in our Mock Draft World Championships. No better way to practice for the real thing. NEW THIS YEAR: FullTime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Mock Drafts in our contest! Head to MockDraftNow.com and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email. How it Works: First, draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Secondly, if you like it, enter it into the best-ball contest. Just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard! Finally, the winner gets to choose from the fantastic prizes below. Everyone’s first team is free! CLICK HERE. Lastly, if you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! Are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2023 Fantasy Football World Championships.

Fantasy Football World Championship Draft Review August 1, 2021

Fulltime’s newest Senior Analyst, Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL on Twitter) breaks down a World Championship Draft with a fantasy football draft review completed August 1st, 2021. Reviewing the first FFWC Draft of 2021 Now that the calendar reads August, football fans can rejoice that training camps are in progress and the fantasy football draft season has, at long last, begun. Among the fantasy football drafts that have kicked off, the prestigious Fantasy Football World Championship draft season is in full swing and the inaugural 2021 draft is in the books. Well-known as the preeminent format in the industry, FFWC leagues boast over $12K in prizes, with the overall winner taking home a massive $150K grand prize and title of Fantasy Football World Champion. FFWC drafts use PPR scoring and involve 12 fantasy fans battling it out in a 20-round live draft. Lineups include a single quarterback, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX spots, a team defense, and one team kicker. With the first FFWC draft now completed, here are some of the takeaways as 12 eager fantasy fans get ready to battle it out over the next five months. Draft Bargains Aaron Jones (2.02, RB10) – Now that we know Aaron Rodgers will return for at least one more season in Green Bay, all the Packers’ skill position players are on the rise. Jones is coming off of consecutive top-5 seasons and now stands to gain a larger role in the passing game after Jamaal Williams signed with Detroit. Any time Jones slides into Round 2, he’s a solid value. Saquon Barkley (2.04, RB11) – Even though there are concerns about Barkley’s surgically-repaired knee, he is still generally considered a first-round talent and top-5 fantasy running backs. As the 11th running back selected in this FFWC draft, Barkley looks like a tremendous bargain. A.J. Brown (3.02, WR10) – Among the favorites to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, Brown broke out with a 70/1,073/11 campaign in 2020 and could be even better in 2021 with new teammate Julio Jones commanding a lot more attention from opposing defensive backs. Brown has top-5 upside and looks like a steal being selected after Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin. Miles Sanders (5.05, RB24) – Sanders had some issue with drops during his rookie campaign, but he still managed to snag 50 passes, rank 9th with 1.67 yards created per attempt, and lead the NFL in runs of 70-plus yards. Sanders also has a clear path to RB1 duties on a team that should be significantly better. That makes the third-year back look like an excellent value pick a full two rounds later than he would normally be targeted. Kareem Hunt (6.05, RB26) – In 24 games with Cleveland, Hunt has averaged 13.3 PPR points per game, caught 75 passes, and scored 14 touchdowns despite being used as his team’s RB2. Hunt offers standalone RB2 value on a weekly basis but offers top-10 upside if Nick Chubb were to miss time. James Conner (11.05, RB45) – Chase Edmonds, who was drafted a full five rounds earlier, had all of two games with double-digit carries last season and averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in those contests. This staff seems to know that Edmonds is small and better utilized in a change-of-pace role. Conner has battled injuries but been sneaky good. According to Fantasy Index, Conner has put up 1,739 scrimmage yards and scored 13 touchdowns in the past 16 games in which he received two-thirds of Pittsburgh’s snaps. At 233 pounds, Conner also looks like the clear favorite for goal-line duties in Kingsbury’s offense, which has averaged 20 rushing TDs per season in the NFL. Questionable Selections Travis Etienne (3.10, RB18) – It isn’t unusual for first-round running backs to be a hot commodity in fantasy football drafts. But as talented as Etienne was at Clemson, he has an undefined NFL role and joins a Jacksonville squad with a rookie signal-caller, first-year head coach, and who already has an established starting running back in James Robinson. It’s difficult to forecast Etienne to receive enough touches to justify top-20 billing ahead of safer bets like J.K. Dobbins and Chris Carson. — (Scott likes this exciting high ceiling pick. “It’s boom or bust baby!”) Ja’ Marr Chase (4.12, WR18) – When you’re trying to win a league like the FFWC, you have to be willing to take chances but nabbing a rookie wideout in the fourth round with plenty of dependable veteran pass-catchers like Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, and D.J. Moore still on the board is awfully risky. Robby Anderson (5.04, WR26) – The addition of QB Sam Darnold, who showed excellent chemistry with Anderson in New York, should help, but the Panthers look like a bottom-third passing offense and Anderson will be hard-pressed to get 136 targets again with RB Christian McCaffrey back in the fold. Ronald Jones (7.03, RB29) – With all 22 starters returning after a Super Bowl win, there’s little reason to think that Bruce Arians will change his backfield committee approach. The problem for Jones is that it appeared that Leonard Fournette moved into the ‘1A’ role late in the 2020 season and Arians also added receiving specialist Giovani Bernard to the fold. Jones will have a tough time carving out a consistent weekly role, making him a poor choice as a top-30 fantasy back. Zach Ertz (10.08, TE9) – Ertz, 30, has seen his production slip in three consecutive seasons and has been rumored to be a trade candidate all offseason. For now, Ertz is still in Philadelphia but that’s not necessarily good news for his fantasy outlook. Dallas Goedert appears to be ahead of Ertz in the pecking order now and the Eagles have added a ton of young wideouts. It’s hard to envision Ertz being anything more than a mediocre TE2 in this offense, but certainly not a top-10 option. Deshaun Watson (17.03, QB16) – Grabbing a potential stud quarterback in the 17th round is by no means an egregious pick, but Watson