WHO WILL BE IAN’S SLEEPER, BUST, COMEBACK, AND LATE-ROUND STATSH FOR THE UPCOMING FANTASY FOOTBALL SEASON?

 

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Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report

Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed by Josh Allen (28.35), Jalen Hurts (27.45), and Justin Fields (27.20). Twelve other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 26.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 16 weeks by scoring average:

• Josh Allen (26.95)
• Jalen Hurts (26.09)
• Dak Prescott (23.03)
• Lamar Jackson (22.76)
• Brock Purdy (22.11)

Using our Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Over the past six weeks, Hurts has one passing touchdown or fewer in five starts. He held value by his success in the run game (59/260/8). His completion rate (60.3%) over this span is well below his first nine games (68.9%). Despite his direction, Hurts has already set career highs in completions (327), passing attempts (499), and combined touchdowns (35). When at his best, he scored more than 30 fantasy points in three matchups (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50).

The Cardinals rank 25th in quarterback defense (21.94). Only the Giants (380/3) scored more than 30.00 fantasy points. The Rams (229/4) and 49ers (262/4) delivered the most success in touchdowns over the past four weeks. Quarterbacks rushed for 285 yards and five touchdowns on 61 carries. Five offenses rushed for more than 175 yards.

The Eagles played better offensively in Week 16 (471 combined yards with three touchdowns, four field goals, and 33 points), pointing to success in scoring this week. I sense I have Hurts under-projected this week as he looks poised to have a 4X floor in this upside matchup...

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

 

 

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Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in quarterback scoring (119.25 fantasy points). Josh Allen (32.35), Jalen Hurts (31.35), and Sam Howell (30.30) filled out the quarterback superfecta last week. In addition, Jared Goff (29.90), Desmond Ridder (29.45), and Brock Purdy (28.60) played at a high level. 

Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after five games based on scoring average:

• Josh Allen (138.35)
• Justin Herbert (107.80 – four games)
• Jalen Hurts (126.70)
• Kirk Cousins (122.10)
• Tua Tagovailoa (120.80).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Allen had a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games, but his running output (20/120/3) is well behind his previous two years (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). His two bright spots after five games are his completion rate (73.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.0), both career-best. Over the last two weeks, he gained 710 combined yards with eight touchdowns. 

The Giants are league-average defending quarterbacks (19.10 FPPG), with two teams (SF – 310/2 and MIA – 308/2) passing for more than 300 yards. New York allowed at least three touchdowns in all five games. Offenses scored 18 touchdowns and nine field goals on 52 possessions (30.6 points per game). Their defense will give up rushing touchdowns (9). Field position due to turnovers (8) has favored their opponents. 

Buffalo is a 15-point favorite, suggesting more run by the Bills, especially in the second half. Allen will get his touchdowns but needs 33.00 fantasy points to…

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5

Last week’s game offered a lot for fantasy football fans. And the Lions/Packers game mostly lived up to the hype. That won’t necessarily be the case in Week 4. The winless Chicago Bears travel to the nation’s capital to face the 2-2 Washington Commanders. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5 breaks down this week’s NFC slugfest.

The Bears finally showed some life last week. However, a defensive collapse in the second half led to another loss for Matt Eberflus’s club. Chicago is now one of only two winless clubs in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Ron Rivera’s Washington squad dropped their second consecutive game after opening the season 2-0. However, the Commanders had a good showing, losing 34-31 in Philadelphia.

This is a pivotal game for both teams. Eberflus is feeling the pressure to get a win. Also, the Commanders need to take advantage of an easy schedule to break a two-game losing streak and remain in playoff contention.

Washington opened as 4.5-point favorites before some early action dropped that to -3.5. The over/under rose to 44.5.

Matchup 

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Chicago Bears	21	21	13	16	22
Washington Commanders	20	20	17	22	17

The numbers show these teams are quite evenly matched. Their offenses rank back-to-back overall and are separated by just 5o yards. However, Washington has scored 20-plus points in three of four games and twice gone over 30.

Meanwhile, Chicago had three lackluster showings before finally showing some life against a hapless Denver defense on Sunday. For the Bears to have a shot, they’ll need some of Justin Fields’s Week 4 magic to carry over.

And it very well could. Both teams are bottom-10 in terms of allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. That invites some solid fantasy, daily, and DFS scoring potential.

Chicago Offense 

Justin Fields had the best passing day of his career last week. Fields posted a 132.7 QB Rating and threw for a career-high 335 yards and four TDs. Fields’s accuracy has improved in 2023 but his rushing production has plummeted. After averaging 76 rushing yards per game last year, Fields is down to 33.5 in 2023.

This week’s matchup appears fine for the passing game. Washington has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing passers. Also, that includes 131 yards on the ground- third-most through four games.

After hearing that Roschon Johnson would get an opportunity to be Chicago’s RB1, Khalil Herbert played a season-high 77.8%…

How will Thursday’s Lions vs. Packers game go?

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NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bears – 2.5

Over/Under: 43.5

The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him with their new Love. The summer reports have been positive for Jordan Love, especially his connection with Christian Watson. The running back position remains in the hands of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Green Bay added WR Jaylen Reed and TE Luke Musgrove to improve the depth of their passing options.

The Bears have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but they have the tools to be a much better offense in 2023. DJ Moore is an upgrade at wideout, and a healthy Darnell Mooney paired with Cole Kmet gives Justin Fields the weapons to push much higher in his pass production. He remains a beast running the ball. Chicago will rotate in three backs out of the gate.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love

• Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy. 
• In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts. 
• He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown). 
• The Bears ranked 26th in quarterback defense (21.36 FPPG). Despite their lower rankings, only one quarterback posted an impact game (39.85 fantasy points). On the positive side, seven quarterbacks scored between 24.90 and 28.90 fantasy points.
• Love is priced in a favorable range, and he does have one explosive wideout. Let the “Magic” happen.

Aaron Jones

• Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59). 
• He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches). 
• Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games. 

• In Week 2, he posted an impact game (170 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) vs. the Bears.
• Chicago had the second-worst defense against running backs.
• The Packers will rotate in two backs, and Love may not get Jones as many targets as in the past with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
• He needs a 25.00 fantasy point game to be in the mix. I’ll take the under…

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2023 Chicago Bears Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Detroit Lions Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Justin Fields

Fields played for one of the best football programs in the NCAA in 2019 and 2020. And he did them proud by going 20-2 despite failing to win a national championship. He passed for 5,373 yards with 63 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Fields finished his college career with 260 rushes for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns.

Despite some impressive stats, Fields came with knocks from some NFL scouts. He needs to improve his pre-snap reads when facing the blitz, plus show more quickness in his release under duress. Also, his strengths come from his toughness and playmaking ability while having the base to break the pocket after getting hit. Fields takes what the defense gives him as a runner, which gains value at the goal line. His arm has the strength to make all the NFL throws. Fields also plays very well when asked to throw on the run.

Fields went 2-8 in his rookie season with more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). His completion rate (58.9) and yards per pass attempt (6.9) showed weakness. However, he ran the ball exceptionally well (72/420/2). Over his first six starts, Fields passed for more than 210 yards in one matchup (291/1) while delivering only five combined scores. He missed time late in the year with an ankle issue and Covid-19.

For the second consecutive season, Fields lost momentum late in the year due to an injury. He took a nasty hit in Week 11, leading to a missed game, while also sitting out Week 18 with a hip issue. Despite having high hopes as a QB2 in the fantasy market in 2022, Fields played his way off rosters after a dismal first four games (34-for-67 with 471 yards passing, two touchdowns, and four interceptions plus 34 runs for 147 yards and a score). 

The Bears allowed him to run more from Week 6 to Week 11 (80/640/6), leading to an impressive run (21.30, 26.15, 27.55, 43.95, 42.05, and 25.15 fantasy points). His electric game (301 combined yards with four touchdowns) vs. the Dolphins helped me win $250,000 at DraftKings. Fields never threw more than 28 pass attempts in any matchup. His rushing stats (160/1,143/8) accounted for 49.0% of his fantasy points. He gained more than 20 yards on 10 rushes, with four plays reaching the 40-yard mark.

Fantasy Outlook: Chicago gave Fields an upgrade at WR1 (DJ Moore) in the offseason. Also, his secondary receiving options (Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet) should be better in 2023. Fields finished 11th in quarterback scoring (331.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. I can’t expect him to have as many long runs this year, but he still gained 5.8 yards per carry in 2021 with three runs of 20 yards or more. With 17 games played, he should run the ball 170 times with 1,000 yards and six to eight scores. To reach 3,000 yards passing, Fields must average 176 yards and 25 passes per game. With 20 passing touchdowns, my quick math adds up to 360.00+ fantasy points. He ranks 7th at quarterback in mid-June in the high-stakes market. I sense a player close to 10th, but I also understand Fields could outperform my early outlook.

Other Options: PJ Walker, Nathan Peterman, Tyson Bagent

— Running Backs —

The threat of Justin Fields running helped the Bears’ running backs by keeping linebackers honest in the attacks vs. the run. They gained 4.8 yards per rush, compared to 4.0 in 2021. Despite only seven more rushing attempts, their backs rushed for 345 more yards with a similar output in rushing touchdowns (10). Chicago barely threw to their running backs (46/414/2 on 62 targets), but they did gain an impressive 9.0 yards per catch.

D’Onta Foreman

After an injury to Derrick Henry in 2021, Foreman worked his way into serviceable snaps late in the year. He finished 689 combined yards with three scores and nine catches. Tennessee gave him 20 touches or more in four of their final six matchups, leading to 542 yards with three touchdowns and six catches (13.03 FPPG in PPR formats).

Foreman appeared to have a minimal role in 2022 after signing with the Panthers as depth behind Christian McCaffery. Over the first six weeks, he only had 12 rushes for 37 yards with no chances in the passing game. When Carolina decided to trade their star running back, Foreman responded with more than 100 yards rushing in four of his first six starts (15/118, 26/118/3, 31/130/1, and 24/113). Unfortunately, he puts up six short fantasy games (4.30, 2.40, 8.50, 0.90, 3.50, and 6.80) over his final nine matchups. His only other playable outcome came in Week 16 (21/165/1). 

Fantasy Outlook: Foreman has the inside track on the Bears to be their big back with almost no value on passing downs. He’ll have to hold off incoming rookie Roschon Johnson in the preseason before determining his potential in the fantasy market. Possible 200/850/5 player with more upside if given 14 or more starts.

Khalil Herbert

Herbert has early-down potential and needs rhythm timing to excel through the line of scrimmage. When on the move, he flows to the hole with vision and acceleration to reach the second level of the defense. Herbert gets in trouble when hitting roadblocks due to his gearing and taking a couple of steps to reach peak speed. His pass protection needs to improve, with minimal early value in the passing game.

Over five seasons at Virginia Tech, Herbert finished with 3,214 combined yards with 23 touchdowns and 34 catches. His highlight year was 2020 (1,361 combined yards with nine scores and 10 catches). 

With David Montgomery injured over four games in 2021, Herbert gained 388 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches on 87 touches. Unfortunately, he barely touches the ball over his other 12 matchups (141 yards on 30 touches).

The Bears gave him the starts in Week 3 vs. the Texans last season with Montgomery out. Herbert responded with an impact game (20/157/2 with two catches for 12 yards). His touches fluctuated over his final nine matchups (77/414/1 with four catches for 20 yards) while missing four weeks with a hip injury. Chicago had him on the field for 29.1% of their plays. Herbert scored 6.00 fantasy points or fewer over his last five games.

Fantasy Outlook: This season, the Bears should try to get him on the field for…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BEARS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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SuperFlex leagues are becoming more popular each year with the glut of the position of quarterback becomes more prevalent across the fantasy landscape. Seems every team even in 12 team leagues has 2 quality options to choose from on most non-bye weeks. Superflex allows you to flex that muscle of QB depth rather than wasting away on your bench. Here are our post NFL Draft SuperFlex Dynasty Rookie Rankings for your upcoming 2021 Dynasty Rookie Drafts. Clicking on a player’s name will open his scouting profile we posted to FFToolbox.

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB – Jaguars

Lawrence is a no-brainer at the top of any quarterback premium formats. He enters the NFL with top-10 dynasty value at his position and will be in position to further improve upon that value. The Urban Meyer-led offense is sneakily loaded with playmakers who will flourish under the arm talent of Lawrence. Expect DJ Chark and Marvin Jones to man the outside while second-year breakout candidate Laviska Shenault operates out of the slot. The dangerous tandem of Travis Etienne and James Robinson will provide a nice security blanket out of the backfield. Fire away with Lawrence at 1.01.

2. Justin Fields, QB – Bears

Despite being the fourth quarterback taken in the NFL draft, Justin Fields sits just below Lawrence at second overall due to his combination of elite arm and leg talent. Once the Bears bench Andy Dalton after four games, Fields will step in and immediately pay dividends for fantasy owners. A Dak Prescott-like rookie season is within reach with Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney being a thunder and lightning duo on the outside. Matt Nagy’s play calling will improve with the rookie phenom at the helm of the offense.

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